Keith Law Ranks Royals Minor League System 12th
12. Kansas City Royals: Another improved system, boosted by an outstanding 2008 draft led by Eric Hosmer, lefty Mike Montgomery and sleeper Tim Melville, a projected first-rounder who fell after a mediocre spring. The Royals have good pitching depth but are a little light on impact talent after Hosmer.
10 months ago
djk royal
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KLaw has Hosmer ranked 17th in baseball.
Hosmer had just gotten his feet wet in pro ball after signing late last summer when the Pirates decided to drag him into their argument with Scott Boras and Pedro Alvarez, costing him a handful of at bats at the end of the Pioneer League’s season; fortunately, he’s talented enough to overcome the loss of a little development time. Hosmer was the top high school bat in the 2008 Rule 4 draft; he has quick wrists and shows big raw power, especially on any pitch that allows him to get his arms extended. Like a lot of left-handed power hitters, he doesn’t like the ball in on his hands, but the hole is small and he can make a pitcher pay for a mistake that catches a little too much plate. Hosmer was also a decent pitching prospect in high school, touching 94 mph, so he has the arm to play right field and is probably enough of an athlete to handle it as well; at worst, he’s a plus defender at first. He should be in the middle of Kansas City’s lineup in three or four years.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 21, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Didn't he miss perhaps the biggest "impact talent" in the system?
Maybe he didn’t, i can’t read the whole article.
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by kcbottom9th on Jan 21, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
he's never liked the Moose for some reason
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by doublestix on Jan 21, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder why not
Even if he didn’t like him as a draft pick, surely he can’t deny the monster season he had at Burlington last year.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Jan 21, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know Law...
thought that the Royals org made a big mistake by not moving him to catcher.
by djk royal on Jan 21, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is what he said his problem was at one time.
His biggest problem is the lack of a clear position. He’s not a shortstop, and he’s only going to get bigger, which might preclude second base as well. He could slide to third base, given his arm strength, but the hot corner is occupied in Kansas City, and conceivably, he could become too big to stay anywhere in the infield. The Royals have indicated they don’t wish to push him behind the plate, a position for which he is ideally built, as the transition would push back his ETA a year or two. The positional question holds down his value as a prospect.
by djk royal on Jan 21, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very odd
A “positional question” is only relevant if it looks like can’t play some positions defensively, and his bat doesn’t project to be good enough for other defensive positions. According to everything I’ve read about Moustakas (Callis, Sickels, Goldstein, etc.), his bat projects to be good enough for any corner position, infield or outfield. Also, they all appear to agree that Moustakas’s bat projects to be as good or better than Hosmer’s. So if Hosmer can only play 1B or maybe a corner OFer, why is it that he has no positional issue while Moustakas does?
Apparently Law doesn’t like Moustakas’s tools (it certainly can’t be his stats). And that opinion of Moustakas is in a very small minority.
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by NYRoyal on Jan 21, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
KLaw's on the enemies list!
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by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hardly would call Melville a sleeper.............
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by doublestix on Jan 21, 2009 3:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Some had him pegged a the #1 overall pick weeks before the draft.
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by RoyalsRetro on Jan 21, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Everytime I think of Keith Law, I think of:
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jan 21, 2009 4:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
???
idontgeddit
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by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Keith Law doesn't like steak ...
… and it is a usual running joke through his chats.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jan 21, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about Kila?!!!!!!
IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT! IMPACT!
You can’t have much more impact than that.
by BrRoyal on Jan 21, 2009 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yea, except his own org doesn't think so
by royalsreview on Jan 21, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Basis?
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
by Royals Nation on Jan 21, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK.
I think Jacobs was a more or less ‘we need an offensive player now with power, and this is the guest guy we could net’, acquisition, at least in the eyes of Moore. It’s possible, I guess.
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
by Royals Nation on Jan 21, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he was also insurance for
… Billy turns into Andrew Jones
… Shealy gets hurt, again
…Kila regresses to previous numbers
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jan 21, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
fair enough
that being said, at some point, if you think a guy is an impact player, you play him, which they don’t look likely to do in ‘09 and didn’t in ’08
by royalsreview on Jan 21, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you forgot
…hard to find another Grudz-like bat available to DH
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by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Moustakas not an impact talent?
Law is on a small island on this one. I don’t know if any other prospect analyst would agree with that.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 21, 2009 5:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Impact Butt
Moose Rump and Billy Butter. Stay away from the after game buffet.
Go away! Guys, you're gonna wake up my Mom!
by David Howards Legacy on Jan 21, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Law is just being biased
It happens… If there are players I see either as a minor leaguer or early in their major league career and I judge them as not being very good, then I will continue to have my doubts until an all-star appearence or even a hall of fame induction.
by Royal from Queens on Jan 21, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Aren't Law and Neysayer best friends?
If so, that would explain this particularly low ranking.
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
by Royals Nation on Jan 22, 2009 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Law were interested in Royals bashing, I don't think he'd have KC at #12
That’s a fair organizational ranking. I just think his opinion on Moustakas is odd. It’s weird that he appears to be a minority of one on his opinion of Moose. I don’t know where Moose ranks in his top 50 or top 100, but if he’s got Hosmer at #17, and he thinks Moose isn’t an “impact talent” like Hosmer, then he’s likely #25+. And I don’t think any other credible prospect analysts share that kind of opinion of Moustakas. He’s going to be much higher than that in the BA, BP and Sickels top 100 prospect lists.
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by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 1:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I imagine that all the major prospect analysts have some players like that they deviate on
Not that I follow it much, but it just seems typical of lists like this. There will usually be a guy or two that a particular analyst has latched onto as “his guy” who is better than everyone else thinks, and/or a guy or guys from whom “everyone else likes him, but I just don’t see it.”
Maybe
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That certainly happens
I just wonder what it is about Moustakas that he doesn’t like. His swing? HIs bat speed? His make up? Work ethic? Clubhouse presence? Fashion choices?
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by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
his like for steak
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Jan 22, 2009 2:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok, before I go to bed?
what’s the deal with KLaw and steak? if he’s a vegetarian, I get that (I mean, I’m not one myself, but that would explain it). Does he eat red meat, but doesn’t like steak?
Inquiring minds want to know.
good night
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 2:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm fairly certain he's a vegetarian
there’s been a few epic threads on royals corner about it. i know there’s more to it as to why he’s given shit for hating steak, but don’t remember all of it.
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by doublestix on Jan 22, 2009 2:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not a vegetarian
definitely not. I think hes like me in that he doesn’t value steak as highly as some people do. Some people salivate over it. Im more indifferent. Id mostly likely never order it out, and id probably cook something else instead.
by wildthang on Jan 22, 2009 3:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I like meat and eat at least my share of it, but I’m not really into steak at all.
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by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 3:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe Law is of Turkish descent?
Blood is thicker than something something
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 2:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And wait, aren't Rany and Rob also good friends?
That’s also the only explanation behind Rany withdrawing his support from Dayton Moore…
And don’t get me started on that liberal media…
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rob and Rany broke up when Rany left Rob & Rany on the Royals
It was pretty ugly. I hear there were some pretty bitchy text messages exchanged.
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by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 2:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if he talk to any Royals scouts
I know there is one in particular that thinks Hosmer is the better prospect…
i would not be surprised if Law used that scout as his point of reference for this list…it is not that far off from what BA does
"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."
by gashousegang on Jan 21, 2009 5:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
But does that scout also think that Moustakas isn't an "impact talent"?
While I don’t agree, I can see some thinking Hosmer is a better prospect than Moustakas. But I can’t see anyone describing Moustakas as not looking right now like an impact talent, or not a top prospect or not an “A” prospect or any other such descriptive.
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by NYRoyal on Jan 21, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seems a little low for Moose and the organization as a whole.
Callis has KC at #9 which is a big improvement over last year when KC was ranked #24. This is the first time since 1996 that KC will be ranked in the Top 10 in BA’s organizational rankings.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Jan 21, 2009 6:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Is that BA's official organizational ranking?
Or just Callis’s own rankings? I assume the official organizational ranking is something BA comes up with as a group.
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by NYRoyal on Jan 21, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure #9 is BA's org ranking
They all have been leaking bits and pieces of the org rankings on podcasts and chats.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Jan 21, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm very happy with anything around #10 at this point
That’s a huge step forward in one year and it doesn’t look like the Royals will be trading or even promoting any/many of those prospects this year. So with another draft, the system could/should easily get to top 5 in 12 months.
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by NYRoyal on Jan 21, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Being in the top third is key. Whether your #9 or #12 doesn’t matter as much, the point is people think its among the top third.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 21, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Encouraging, but
considering the small-market position of the Royals, in order to get to their goal of contending year in and year out, they honestly need to consistently have a top 5 organizational ranking. Dayton has brought the system a long way in a short time – but he must stay the course, including convincing the mizerly owner that doing things like drafting Mehlville will pay off IF GLASS REMAINS PATIENT.
Look no further than Tampa Bay for proof.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Jan 21, 2009 6:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The good news in that regard...
Dayton has brought the system a long way in a short time – but he must stay the course,
The good news is that while Moore appears to be in a semi-win-now mode, he’s not mortgaging the team’s future by trading away any of the minor league system in our short-term quest for a .500 record. Another piece of good news is that Glass appears to be continuing to show a willingness to spend, both in the draft and in annual, significant increases in the major league payroll. Fingers crossed that this all continues.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 21, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Wow!
+1! A positive assessment of GMDM! Excellent. Glass is giving GMDM room to take chances with the roster so long as our farm system and top talent’s prospects are not compromised. – TL
by timlacy on Jan 22, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think most on this board
Are pretty pleased with how DM has run his drafts.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 22, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
This shouldn’t come as a shock. The drafts have clearly been good as far as we can see so far.
it shouldn’t come as a surprise. I guess some of us just hold biases against terrible players getting unsizable contracts, and for some crazy reason think that reflects poorly on the guy who signed them.
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the drafts could be even better if we saved jacobs' 4 million and...
signed for more guys for more than slot money…
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 22, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't be a surprise
It’s not like I’ve been saying that Moore is a bad GM. I’ve said that he’s mediocre/average overall, which means he does some things well and some things poorly. I think we’ve pretty clearly seen more than a little of both.
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by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They definitely need a good farm system
but just like evaluating GMs or players over the long term, someone should keep track of different well-know prospect hound lists like this and then see how things turned out 4-5 years later, who was the most reliable? Which system actually turned out the best pros?
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by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Having a top half right now is great considering there ...
… there 3 player (Cortez, Rosa and Kila) last year in AA and AAA that have a chance of being an everyday regular.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jan 21, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Also Blake Wood
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by doublestix on Jan 21, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stix?
Have you ever seen the numbers for what AA and AAA convert to ML numbers. I know PECOTA uses some formula, but have never seen it otherwise.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jan 21, 2009 7:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Davenport Translations?
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by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In addition to the BP player cards,
on the “statistics” page there is a link for minor league translations, which provides team by team MLE translated lines (with an age adjustment option).
As noted below, minorleaguesplits.com is pretty cool because you can get the MLEs by splits.
by Gopherballs on Jan 21, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this is what i use
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html
you can convert numbers at any park to any other park in the minors or majors
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by doublestix on Jan 21, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's fun
It has Albert Pujols 2008 stats coming out as this in the MWL:
.602/.729/1.232 (1.961)
Take that Moose!
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by kcbottom9th on Jan 21, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It is fun!
I just put Bloomquist’s career high numbers for the Sally league and got
.379/.483/.555
4 dingers! in 230 AB’s we multiply that by 2 for 460 AB’s and we get 8 dingers for Bloomquist!
awesome.
by Royal from Queens on Jan 21, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Barry Bonds 2004
In the SAL – 1.164/1.048/3.011
Yep, that’s BA/OBP/SLG
Haha.
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by doublestix on Jan 22, 2009 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We have more depth than that!
We won the Midwest League Title!
That's why we play the season on paper.
by 306008 on Jan 21, 2009 11:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
flags fly forever
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by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's all about minor league rings, baby
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by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
from KLaw's chat
today
Josh (Mpls): You said the Royals system lacks top-end talent beyond Hosmer. Moustakas?
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:04 PM ET ) Call me when he finds a position. If they would put him behind the plate, then yes, he’s a top-end talent.
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like the Logic
That without a position, his bat is completely irrelevent. Never mind that his bat would be “imapctful” at position on the field, he doesn’t have set position yet so therefore he sucks!
Anyone who disagrees is just a blinkered Homer.
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by kcbottom9th on Jan 22, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I agree with Law
but I think it might mean that he’s not as sold on his bat then most others are, for some reason
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's probably right
but if that is the case, he should just say it. Not keep beating the dead horse that is the Moose to C debate.
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by kcbottom9th on Jan 22, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I agree with Law either
but in addition to what DF said, Law may just be talking about positional adjustments (he refers to “impact talent,” not impact bat). Based on the different expectations between the positions, a player with the same batting line might be an MVP candidate at SS, an All-Star at 3B, but merely a very good player in LF or RF (maybe call this the Jimmy Rollins effect — he wins an MVP as a SS, but stick him in LF, and he probably does not make many All-Star teams). The same thing works with prospects — a player with Moose’s projected bat would be valued the highest if he stuck at SS, but to lesser degrees as his position moves down the defensive spectrum.
by Gopherballs on Jan 22, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ehh I'm not sure if I agree
Ryan Braun didn’t have a position coming out of the draft, in the minor leagues, and hell even IN the major leagues.
Hasn’t stopped Braun from being considered a high-end “impact” talent.
by Royal from Queens on Jan 22, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
how he can be sold on Vitters who is gonna have to play 3b and doesn’t project to have nearly the same pop currently as Moose. Moose seems to be destined to not only be a 30+ HR guy but a 40+ HR guy and he doesn’t K nearly as much as most failed power prospects.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
40+?
my impression fro Hamari (sp?) was that Moose has good power, but doesn’t project to be a monster power hitter
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
boras said
HE HAS LIGHT TOWER POWER
by wildthang on Jan 22, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or Brett Wallace
Where the hell is he going to play in St. Louis?
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by RoyalsRetro on Jan 22, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He likes Vitters body!
Or some similar wrong-headed crap.
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by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
...not that there's anything wrong with that
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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