Things I am Thankful for Regarding the Royals

by djk royal on Jan 22, 2009 10:25 AM EST

Consistent Progress - I still have nightmares regarding the Allard Baird Regime and am grateful for the ever increasing win totals (62, 69, 75 & roughly 80 projected wins in 2009). That my friends is a trend I can get behind.
Improvement of Minor League System - Gone are the days of signability picks at the top of the draft and $1,000 bonuses to college seniors. Jim Callis has our system ranked 9th while Keith Law has it ranked 12th. This is very impressive considering we have so few prospects in the upper levels. Look for this ranking to increase when GMDM players eventually filter through every level.
Gil Meche, Zack Greinke & Joakim Soria - This 1/2 punch at the top of the rotation is the best since Appier/Cone and can compete with any team in baseball. The Mexicutioner is quite possibly the best young closer in baseball. All are signed for at least two more years.
Renovated Kauffman Stadium - I loved the stadium as it was but am really looking forward to seeing the improvements. It also nearly guarantees the Royals will remain a fixture in KC for the forseeable future.
Increase in Payroll for 2009 - While much of the industry is cutting payroll the Royals were one of the few clubs that significantly opened their wallets. Couple this with a record setting financial payout in the draft and maybe there is hope for Mr. Glass yet.
Royals Review, Rany on the Royals & Joe Posnanski - Royals fans are truly blessed to have so many quality options to discuss and learn about their favorite team. Two years ago I only had the KC Star.
Mike Aviles and Kila Ka'aihue - How often do two fringe prospects who were considered too old for their respective minor league levels explode with seasons like those two had in 2008.
David DeJesus - The Royals best position player handles a position switch from CF to LF with complete class. Maybe Michael Young and Jose Guillen could learn a few things from watching David.
Tony Pena Jr., Ross Gload & Joey Gathright - Barring something drastic happening, there is a real chance I may never have to watch those three bat for the Royals ever again.
Increase of Royals Baseball on TV - There are so many opportunities to watch games than ever before. Not to mention many are in HD now!
1B/DH Logjam - At a position the Royals have been almost comically bad the last two decades the Royals actually have 4 players who have the potential to be at least average and possibly more.
Slugger - For the second year in a row I attended the Royals Caravan and Slugger made by daughters day. Kudo's to the Lion!

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Comments

Agreed on all points.

I would add that I’m still thankful, perhaps alone in this regard, to have GMDM and Trey Hillman. I really think Hillman’s going to have a better overall year in 2009.

Is Slugger a lion? I thought she/he was a Phillies Fanatic knockoff.

by timlacy on Jan 22, 2009 11:26 AM EST reply actions

Slugger is definitely a Lion.

by djk royal on Jan 22, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

Nice post

Other than Butler and Kila, who are the other two who have a decent chance to be average at first base?

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 22, 2009 11:32 AM EST reply actions

Oh come on now.

I know how you loves you some Jacobs :) Shealy had a nice Sept and can play some defense. Jacobs could be a solid 400 at bat DH.

by djk royal on Jan 22, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, that was harsher than I meant it to be

I actually think Shealy has a better chance than Jacobs, overall. There’s a bigger gap between them defensively than there is offensively.

I was trying to do a probability graph just for offense, but it doesn’t work right.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 22, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

"Average at first base" is a pretty high bar for any of these guys

An average OPS for first base is an OPS north of .810. Who has a decent shot at that? Butler. Perhaps Kila, but he’s a prospect so who knows. I’d certainly bet against it for 2009, but maybe eventually. Jacobs? No. Shealy? No. Gload. No.

And that’s just the offense.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 22, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

Jacobs career OPS is > 810.

by djk royal on Jan 22, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

Well, here's a different comparison than my usual favorite one

I think we can all agree that defense being aberage, a 1B needs to be a better-than average offensive contributer.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 22, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

Can you compare Minky to Big Papi circa Minnesota Twins

I would like to see that graph

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

Here it is

(you can do all this stuff at fangraphs easily, btw, although I like being the “graph dork,” sort of like being in the A/V club, w hich I wasn’t)

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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 22, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Cool thanks

At the time you would have to say the Twinkys made the right decision based on Minky’s defense. Nice that Morneau bailed them out of that mistake.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

of course, it would be even nicer if they had both Ortiz and Morneau...

Yup, Jacobs=Ortiz

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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 22, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

ISO doesn't look too bad

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

Have you seen his projections?

And if he manages .800, it will be about as bad of an .800 OPS as you can get (very low OBP).

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 22, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions

Yes. The average projection from...

James, Chone & Marcel is 804.

by djk royal on Jan 22, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

what is it with just Chone and Marcel?

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 22, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

786.

But I think it is dangerous to throw out info to help one support their position. In your case, the position being Jacobs is barely a replacement level hitter.

by djk royal on Jan 22, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

But James is seemingly always

very optimistic for hitters. It is not unreasonable to discount James IMO. It would be to throw out Chone or Marcel or Zips though.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 22, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

It's not to support my position

It’s that the James’s projections are almost always so optimistically they can’t be taken seriously. Unless you thik every team in baseball is going to score 850+ runs. I would take Marcel before James, and Marcel isn’t even meant to be a full-fledged system

I’d say a better thing to do would be to take CHONE and ZiPS and average them. We have both for Jacobs, actually… (rumaging through internet)…

CHONE: .259/.313/.474 = .787
ZiPS: .262/.313/.485 = .798

Avg. would be something like .261/.313/.480 = .793

Not all that far from .804. But his projected wOBA is what counts, and it isn’t high enough to be an average 1B, even if we assume his defense is average.

Different strokes, I guess. If platooned properly and not played on defense, he has a decent chance to be more valuable than Nunez. And I will admit to a certain joy in watching a guy bash 30 homers, although even ignoring his platoon limitations, that’s pretty unlikely.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 22, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, everyone recognizes that the three best projection systems (by far) are CHONE, PECOTA and ZiPS

They all use a Marcel-like regression model as a baseline and add to it. So Marcel doesn’t add anything to the above projections. And BJ’s system is, historically, much less accurate than any of the above. So I think an average of CHONE, PECOTA and ZiPS gives you the best projection. So far, Jacobs looks like a clearly below average hitting 1B with way below average defense. So no, there isn’t a decent shot that he’ll be an average 1B in 2009 or ever.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 22, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

Also agreed on all points

A few things I’d like to add:

The bullpen in general (Soria in particular, but the other guys there as well). There used to be a time when I absolutely dreaded seeing the gate to the Royals’ bullpen open. No longer (unless it was Yimmy being sent out to face a right handed batter).

Denny Matthews.

The powder blue uniforms. I barely remember the powder blues growing up, but since I idolized the Royals then anyways, there was something mythical about them.

by DarthYoshi on Jan 22, 2009 12:04 PM EST reply actions