Keith Law: Top 100 Prospects
17. Eric Hosmer
Hosmer had just gotten his feet wet in pro ball after signing late last summer when the Pirates decided to drag him into their argument with Scott Boras and Pedro Alvarez, costing him a handful of at bats at the end of the Pioneer League's season; fortunately, he's talented enough to overcome the loss of a little development time. Hosmer was the top high school bat in the 2008 Rule 4 draft; he has quick wrists and shows big raw power, especially on any pitch that allows him to get his arms extended. Like a lot of left-handed power hitters, he doesn't like the ball in on his hands, but the hole is small and he can make a pitcher pay for a mistake that catches a little too much plate. Hosmer was also a decent pitching prospect in high school, touching 94 mph, so he has the arm to play right field and is probably enough of an athlete to handle it as well; at worst, he's a plus defender at first. He should be in the middle of Kansas City's lineup in three or four years.
44. Mike Moustakas
Moustakas had an odd year, to say the least: He spent the first half of the season as an awful defensive shortstop who couldn't hit a lick (but was young for his league), and the second half as an offensive machine who was sort of passable at third base.
Moustakas has a great swing, a smooth left-hander's stroke with good plate coverage and hard line-drive contact. He has intermittent power; his swing doesn't have great loft, and he needs to get his arms extended to really drive the ball, but it is in there when he gets the opportunity to use it. Physically, Moustakas offers no projection; he's 6-0, around 200 pounds or slightly more, and already thickset, with below-average speed.
He was never going to stay at short, and he may not stay at third, where he was improved but still has a lot of work to do on reading balls and improving reaction times. It has been said before, by me and others, that Moustakas should be behind the plate. He has a 65-70 arm, has a catcher's body, and caught a little bit in high school. The Royals have no catching prospects of note, and any questions about Moustakas' power become irrelevant if he's catching, because his bat will be plus back there at 15 homers a year or 30. As a catcher, he'd be top 20-25 overall.
10 months ago
KCsince88
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has this already been discussed ?
Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.
by focs on Jan 22, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
We didn't have the Top 100 list yet
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 22, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
44 WOW he really doesn't like him. I haven't seen him that low anywhere else.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2009 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Actually, 44 is quite good. How many minor leaguers do you think there are? How many top prospects do you think there are? 44 in all of baseball is really good.
by MtRoyals on Jan 22, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
44 is good, but its a little strange when every other expert...
has him top 15
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 22, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and any questions about Moustakas’ power become irrelevant if he’s catching, because his bat will be plus back there at 15 homers a year or 30. As a catcher, he’d be top 20-25 overall.
I didn’t realize there were questions about his power.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
That’s the part of his game I’m most confident about.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 22, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Again, Law's opinion of Moustakas is different from everything else I've read
No one else said his SS defense was awful. No one else describes his power as “intermittent.” Pretty much everyone else really likes his swing. And then he goes on and on about his Moose-as-catcher fetish. Give it up, Keith.
So Keith’s opinion counts, but of course he’s not one of the best prospect analysts. In fact, prospect evaluation isn’t his stock and trade. It’s something he dabbles in. The best prospect analysts like Moustakas a lot more.
Does he not have any other Royals in the top 100? Not even Cortes? If so, that list is a joke.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Probably doesn't have the objectivity to judge these things like a fan of the organization does
(winky face)
At least we know the reasons he has — body type, speed, swing. I suppose we’ll just have to see.
As for Cortes, he does make KLaw’s list of players who just miss the top 100. Law on Cortes:
Has the raw stuff — notably a 91-94 mph fastball and an upper-70s curveball with good depth — to be on the list, but is limited by 40 command, 40 control and a tendency to leave the ball up in the zone.
Given that scouting rankings are based on subjective impressions, and that Law probably doesn’t have a personal cross-checker, we’d expect there to be variance. Hopefully he’s wrong.
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Probably doesn’t have the objectivity to judge these things like a fan of the organization does
That’s why I’m not saying that I know how good Moose really is. I’m pointing to every other prospect analyst who disagrees with Law.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Law is a bit of an outlier in prospect evaluation
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 22, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And I don't think its a bad thing that he's an outlier
With scouting being such a crapshoot, I’m quite amazed there is as much consensus as there is in prospect reports. I welcome Keith’s different perspective.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 22, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you gotta see his points on cortes though...
im somewhat in agreement with him on…i see cortes being a 3-4 starter with an outside shot at being a 2….
regarding moustakas…i dont get it either. he had a difficult time adjusting, but once he did he was the best hitter in the league as a 19/20 yr old
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 22, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course Cortes has weaknesses
As does every top prospect. Again, the problem with Law’s analysis is one of degree. I think BA, BP and Sickels will all have Cortes in their top 100. I’d bet that each put him in their top 75. He may well be in the 40’s or 50’s, given all that I’ve read about him from Sickels, and at BA and BP. Cortes’s ceiling is a 1-2 starter or dominant closer. Again, that’s “ceiling” not necessarily what he most likely will become. Even very succesful prospects don’t usually hit their ceiling. The top 20 is full of pitchers with ace ceilings, but most won’t become aces. You can see that from the top 20 pitching prospects from any year.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i agree....
and from what i’ve read, cortes doesnt have the stuff of a feliz, price, bumgarner, cahill, anderson, etc
without doing all sorts of exhaustive research, id have to throw cortes somewhere in the 80-90 range…and putting him at 105 or so (Law) doesnt strike me really as outrageous
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 22, 2009 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and from what i’ve read, cortes doesnt have the stuff of a feliz, price, bumgarner, cahill, anderson, etc
Well, that depends. Cortes’s first two pitches are as good or better than any of those pitchers. Cortes’s fastball and curveball are truly excellent from everything I’ve read. As far as his stuff goes, the problem is his third and fourth pitches. But that is also true of some of the above pitchers you mentioned. But I’m not saying he’s as good of a prospect as Feliz, Price, Bumgarer, Cahill or Anderson. That would make him a likely top 25 prospect. If I were to put together a list, I wouldn’t have him in my top 40. And it’s not like pitching prospects in the 41-60 range have 3-4 plus pitches with plus control. They don’t.
without doing all sorts of exhaustive research, id have to throw cortes somewhere in the 80-90 range…
I really think BA and BP will rank him higher. But who knows; we’ll see.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cortes doesn't have the fastball
that Feliz does but neither does 99.9% of the major leagues. His fastball is better than Anderson and Cahill but his secondary stuff isn’t in their ballpark. Overall Cortes at worst should be a solid bullpen guy whether he fully develops that secondary stuff or not.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
You can be a good #2 starter with two plus pitches, one average pitch and average control. Now that would require improvement from his third pitch and an improvement in his control, but not a massive, unreasonable improvement.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I will say I like his brownie recipe he endorsed
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2009 4:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
my theory holds true again
current year #1 > past year #1 in terms of prospect rank
by GoBabies!! on Jan 22, 2009 7:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Law and Callis individually is probably the only places you'll find Hos over Moose
BA as a group ranked Moose over Hos.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Jan 22, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
When the organization has a top prospect who hasn’t been promoted to the majors and who has had a good minor league season, the new first round draft pick doesn’t usually unseat the organization’s top prospect. The theory doesn’t work.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've never
purported that my theory was based in a world of FACT; i.e. that Hosmer IS a better prospect than Moose; only that when listed in terms of top prospects, new player trumps year old player unless year old player is a projected phenom (Upton type), or had a MONSTER season at Rookie/A ball.
Mosse had a very respectable debut pro season, but it wasn’t epic, and he isn’t viewed as a phenom.
by GoBabies!! on Jan 22, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't think your theory plays out in prospect rankings most of the time
As seen in the BA rankings, Sickels rankings and very likely in the upcoming BP rankings.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mosse had a very respectable debut pro season, but it wasn’t epic, and he isn’t viewed as a phenom.
And yet the vast majority still ranking Moose ahead of Hosmer. I just don’t think they theory plays out in the actual rankings.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
new toys
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by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Jan 23, 2009 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand where Law is coming from but I'm not sure if I agree
He’s basing this whole judgement on position. Obviously if he was in the front office his recommendation would be to stick him behind the plate. I guess he’s pissed he’s not able to be a part of that “discussion”.
But i’m not sure if I agree with that notion that it automatically drops him about 30 spots because Ryan Braun before and after the draft, in the minor leagues and even in the major leagues has been a man with no position yet it didn’t prevent him from being a top-end and impact talent. In fact Law made that comment about Moose’s body and how it doesn’t offer much projection, well, Braun has a similar body type.
Just hoping for some consistancy, that’s all.
by Royal from Queens on Jan 22, 2009 8:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
not really similar guys at all....
other than that they’re power guys ‘without a position’….braun is a couple inches taller and has likely already done most of his filling out….also, he successfully steals a good number of bases
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 23, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs















