Community "Heart & Gut" Projection - First Base/Designated Hitter (Butler, Jacobs, Shealy, Gload)

by NYRoyal on Jan 27, 2009 5:01 PM EST Comment 58 comments

As fans usually do in the offseason, we've discussed at length how we think various players will perform in 2009. There's been a lot of talk about statistical projection systems, age, injury, park and league changes, etc. I thought it might be interesting for us to do a community projection for each Royals player using our hearts, guts and heads. Actually, use whatever you want. Use the player's stats, projections, tools, age, attitude, grit, shoe size, whatever. I'm going to provide a little info for each player and you can let your conscience be your guide. Your "votes" will be averaged into a community projection for each player, then devil_fingers and I will sprinkle some sabermetric fairy dust on them and come up with a run and win value for each player and then see how many games such a team would win.

(If you click on the player's name, it will take you to his Fangraphs.com page which includes, among other things, his CHONE, Marcel and Bill James projections)

For each player, predict the following stats:

AVG

OBP

SLG

RBI

Billy Butler

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	KC	92	329	38	96	23	2	8	52	27	55	0	0	.292	.347	.447	.794
2008	KC	124	443	44	122	22	0	11	55	33	57	0	1	.275	.324	.400	.724
Career		216	772	82	218	45	2	19	107	60	112	0	1	.282	.334	.420	.754

Mike Jacobs

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	NYM	30	100	19	31	7	0	11	23	10	22	0	0	.310	.375	.710	1.085
2006	FLA	136	469	54	123	37	1	20	77	45	105	3	0	.262	.325	.473	.798
2007	FLA	114	426	57	113	27	2	17	54	31	101	1	2	.265	.317	.458	.775
2008	FLA	141	477	67	118	27	2	32	93	36	119	1	0	.247	.299	.514	.812
Career		421	1472	197	385	98	5	80	247	122	347	5	2	.262	.318	.498	.816

Ryan Shealy

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	COL	36	91	14	30	7	0	2	16	13	22	1	0	.330	.413	.473	.886
2006	COL	5	9	2	2	2	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	.222	.222	.444	.667
2006	KC	51	193	29	54	10	1	7	36	15	50	1	1	.280	.338	.451	.789
2007	KC	52	172	18	38	6	0	3	21	13	53	0	0	.221	.286	.308	.594
2008	KC	20	73	12	22	1	0	7	20	5	19	0	0	.301	.354	.603	.957
Career		164	538	75	146	26	1	19	94	46	148	2	1	.271	.335	.429	.764

Ross Gload

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2000	CHC	18	31	4	6	0	1	1	3	3	10	0	0	.194	.257	.355	.612
2002	COL	26	31	4	8	1	0	1	4	3	7	0	0	.258	.324	.387	.711
2004	CWS	110	234	28	75	16	0	7	44	20	37	0	3	.321	.375	.479	.853
2005	CWS	28	42	2	7	2	0	0	5	2	9	0	0	.167	.205	.214	.419
2006	CWS	77	156	22	51	8	2	3	18	6	15	6	0	.327	.354	.462	.815
2007	KC	102	320	37	92	22	3	7	51	16	39	2	2	.288	.318	.441	.759
2008	KC	122	388	46	106	18	1	3	37	23	39	3	4	.273	.317	.348	.664
Career		483	1202	143	345	67	7	22	162	73	156	11	9	.287	.328	.409	.737

1 recs | Comment 58 comments

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Ok, I'll start

Butler
AB 450
AVG .295
OBP .360
SLG .450
HR 17
RBI 85
SB 0
CS 1

Jacobs
AB 450
AVG .260
OBP .315
SLG .480
HR 25
RBI 80
SB 1
CS 1

Shealy
AB 225
AVG .260
OBP .330
SLG .440
HR 9
RBI 34
SB 1
CS 1

Gload
AB 40
AVG .280
OBP .325
SLG .400
HR 0
RBI 3
SB 0
CS 1

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 26, 2009 11:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Butler
AB 500
AVG .300
OBP .360
SLG .465
HR 17
RBI 85
SB 1
CS 1

Jacobs
AB 500
AVG .265
OBP .320
SLG .500
HR 27
RBI 85
SB 1
CS 1

Shealy
AB 195
AVG .250
OBP .300
SLG .375
HR 5
RBI 20
SB 0
CS 1

Gload
AB 0
AVG 0

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jan 26, 2009 12:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Butler:
AB- 470
AVG- .305
OBP- .360
SLG- .470
HR- 16
RBI- 80
SB- 2
CS- 2

Jacobs:
AB- 425
AVG- .255
OBP- .315
SLG- .485
HR- 26
RBI- 90
SB- 1
CS- 0

Shealy:
AB- 200
AVG- .270
OBP- .320
SLG- .460
HR- 6
RBI- 25
SB- 3
CS- 1

Gload:
AB- 100
AVG- .280
OBP- .320
SLG- .390
HR- 1
RBI- 12
SB- 0
CS- 0

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 26, 2009 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Depending on how ST shakes out, Shealy's/Gload's may need to be revised

Butler:
AB- 465
AVG- .286
OBP- .348
SLG- .452
HR- 17
RBI- 64
SB- 1
CS- 4

Jacobs:
AB- 430
AVG- .271
OBP- .316
SLG- .492
HR- 26
RBI- 86
SB- 1
CS- 1

Shealy:
AB- 76
AVG- .241
OBP- .301
SLG- .421
HR- 3
RBI- 11
SB- 0
CS- 0

Gload:
AB- 210
AVG- .284
OBP- .323
SLG- .412
HR- 2
RBI- 21
SB- 1
CS- 2

by Top Ramen on Jan 26, 2009 1:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Using OBA, you might want to include PA (maybe in place of AB)

or else there is a lot of extra math on the backend.

by Gopherballs on Jan 26, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I would prefer PA

…but I think people are more comfortable dealing with AB. I’m trying to strike a balance between user-friendly (to get as many responses as possible) and the best/most useful stats.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 26, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you weighing the slash lines by projected playing time

or just adding them up and dividing by the number of entries?

by Gopherballs on Jan 26, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Basically just averaging

And using the playing time estimates that we all came up with in d_f’s thread.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 26, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Got it

If you were going the weighted route, I just wanted to give you heads up before you were stuck trying to reverse enigneer BB and PAs using only AB, AVG, and OBA.

by Gopherballs on Jan 27, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I went overboard on ABs, but my rate stats are where I want them, you can scale everything else

Player (KCR) G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

B Butler 130 450 60 135 27 0 20 85 40 50 0 0 0.300 0.357 0.493 0.850

M Jacobs 140 500 70 135 30 1 25 100 35 120 0 0 0.270 0.318 0.484 0.802

R Shealy 75 250 40 70 12 0 12 50 15 75 0 0 0.280 0.321 0.472 0.793

R Gload – NOT ON THE ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by AxDxMx on Jan 26, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Heh... Thought I formatted mine correctly, but looking again, I'm the jackass

Butler

AB 450
AVG .300
OBP .357
SLG .493
HR 20
RBI 85
SB 0
CS 0

Jacobs

AB 500
AVG .270
OBP .318
SLG .484
HR 30
RBI 100
SB 0
CS 0

Shealy

AB 250
AVG .280
OBP .321
SLG .472
HR 12
RBI 50
SB 0
CS 0

Gload

Not on the Royals.

Kila – late summer call up or September call up.

Basically, I think Shealy will be better than Jacobs, but Jacobs will get way more playing time. Shealy has him beat with Defense at 1st, and their bats are going to be very similar with an edge in slugging going to Jacobs.

by AxDxMx on Jan 27, 2009 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What, no Kila?

Hmmmm. my “heart” and my “gut” are two different things. My heart wishcasts, my gut gets all twisted up imaging the worst case scenario…. here we go. Note that I don’t have the guts to say that Gload won’t make the team, but I do have a heart enough to spare the Royals fans my predictions…

This would be easier if I hadn’t already looked at projections.

Sorry, didn’t do RBIs. so don’ t hold me to the “predictions,” just saying what I think they’d do over 600 PAs. No, I didn’t take platooning into mind. I’m just doing ‘true talent’ per 600 PAs…. (No, I didn’t bother doing sacrifices or reached on error) Of course, it’s rich to write “true talent” when when just hearting and gutting it out…

Shealy:

My gut says: Colorado Springs Illusion. The Royals’ answer to Andy Phillips.

My heart says: Solid MLB regular, average starter, nothing special but valuable. Lives happily ever after after marrying beat reporter minda33.

My “projection”

PA 600
AB 549
H 141
2b 33
3b 1
hr 22
BB+HBP 60
BA .257
OBP .330
SLG .441
SB 1
CS 0

Mike Jacobs:

My heart says: will win me over in a platoon DH role with many clutch bombs and surprising walk rate. An overpriced, poor-man’s Branyan

My guts says: listen to your brain. When your starting first baseman is Mike Jacobs, that means your starting first baseman is Mike Jacobs.

“Projection”

PA 600
AB 559
H 148
2b 35
3b 1
hr 28
BB 41
BA .265
OBP .315
SLG .481
SB 2
CS 1

Billy Butler:

My heart says: The right-handed, non-injured Travis Hafner

My gut says: Fat Josh Phelps

“Projection”

PA 600
AB 549
H 160
2b 35
3b 2
HR 20
BB 51
BA .291
OBP .352
SLG .472
SB 1
CS 0

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 26, 2009 4:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think I'm going to include Kila in a later post

I didn’t want to put too many players in each post and make the task look too daunting.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 26, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh oh NY the Oliver projections came out

.733 OPS…That would earn me a RR t-shirt care of you. Here is how he calculated them. I’m sure you already read it on fangraphs but just in case. His projections if accurate would mean a long season for KC offensively at least.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jan 26, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like another amateur stathead coming up with his own half-assed projection system

Just a tweaked Marcel. And his tweaks aren’t as good as PECOTA, ZiPS or CHONE. So I don’t see any reason to value this projection any more than BJ or Marcel…and much less than the genuinely good projection systems.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 26, 2009 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it is a tweaked Marcel

but Carwright is very good

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 26, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Cartwright"

is in general very good. I don’t have an opinion on Oliver. Seems like I downloaded his first run a few months back…

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 26, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If someone comes up with a new projection system...

…shouldn’t they attempt to improve on what is out there already? If not, why bother? I don’t see what this gives us that P, Z and C do not.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 26, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he's claiming it's the best one out there

He’s just a very good amateur sabermetrics guy who is buildling a projection system from the ground (Marcel) up. No, I don’t think it’s as good as the “Big Three,” but I still think it’s cool that he’s doing it. That’s pretty much how CHONE started, I think.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 26, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like he's attempting to re-invent the wheel

As a field of study, we should be attempting to build on each other’s work, or at least replicating studies. This appears to be him re-creating CHONE or ZiPS from scratch. I just don’t see how this adds anything to the field.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 26, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

damn you greinke mania

by royalsreview on Jan 26, 2009 6:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

it's like a virus - spreading, spreading, spreading...

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 26, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It is threatening to swallow this site whole

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 26, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well, we could debate Bloomy again

meat

by kabrink on Jan 26, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

-1

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jan 26, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or you could give me your statistical projections for the first basemen

Do your part, you lazy bastard!

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 27, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lazy bastard? That's an outright lie! And, you're banned.

Umm, mostly I don’t think I’m qualified to make up those kinds of projections. How could the Brink system possibly compete with PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE, oBaMa, Marcel, Cartwright, Oliver, James and the rest?

meat

by kabrink on Jan 27, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

None of us are qualified

But on the other hand, only our hearts know the real truth.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 27, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the whole point of the community projection is to have fun with it

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 27, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lazy bastard? That's an outright lie! And, you're banned.

meat

by kabrink on Jan 27, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I Don't Think

Anyone here needs the benefit of my specific projections. Virtually everyone has fallen within the high/low range of my expectations for Butler, Jacobs and Shealy. I don’t see how Gload can start the year with the big club, and I’d take a PTBNL for him at this point. If he’s DFA’d, clears waivers and accepts a MiLB assignment, he’d make good filler or, god forbid, insurance against catastrophic injury/suckitude.

I think all three of these guys, if properly used, can be .800 OPS guys, with Shealy being the most likely to underachieve. Butler should play 150+ games and bat from 3-6 in the order as a 1B/DH. Jacobs should DH against RHP and bat 6 or 7, with numerous PH appearances. Shealy should be the starting 1B against LHP and occasional late inning defensive replacement, batting 7-9 in his starts to give the pop at the lower end of the order and keep the pressure off him. Shealy should be the first RH PH off the bench, keeping Bloomquist’s PA’s to a minimum.

That said:

Butler
AB- 575

AVG- .300

OBP- .350

SLG- .475

HR- 25

RBI- 90

SB- 1

CS- 4

Jacobs
AB- 475

AVG- .250

OBP- .310

SLG- .525

HR- 25

RBI- 80

SB- 1

CS- 4

Shealy
AB- 300

AVG- .270

OBP- .335

SLG- .465

HR- 13

RBI- 50

SB- 2

CS- 3

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 27, 2009 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you post here, we need your projections

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 27, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

here's a go

NAME AB AVG/OBP/SLG HR RBI SB CS
Jacobs 510 260/330/500 29 101 0 1
Butler 550 300/360/475 22 92 3 0
Jacobs 300 260/330/460 11 43 0 1
Shealy—gone.

I hate being the high man on Jacobs and Butler but I’m bullish on them both.

by nwroyal on Jan 27, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow, Jacobs ends up with 810 ABs and 40 jacks

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 27, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

er yeah...

watch out jimmy rollins…the 2nd jacobs=shealy and Shealy=gload

by nwroyal on Jan 27, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Suddenly It All

Makes sense.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 27, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just out of curiosity, devil_fingers:

did you ever consider what the cubs did for zoha, or zoma, or whatever that site was?

like a menu-driven way to load in these figures, and automate the entire process. i believe it was linked from the beyond the box score community predictions site.

it’s not quite as player-by-player as this—where things get released once every so often, and each time people perhaps feel a bit energized to try anew.

but if you thought it was spiffy, maybe it’s an idea?

by Sean O Se on Jan 27, 2009 8:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hey, this is NYRoyal's thing!

If you look in the earlier thread, I had taken Colin Wyers (the guy who did the form for the Cubs) thing and did one for the Royals, but like I said, this is NY’s thing and he just wanted to make it very basic for everyone.

I might do something else with it later, though. Thanks.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 27, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haven't read anyone else's, but here goes

i’ll look above after this.:)

Butler
AB 450
280 / 340 / 430
HR: 15
RBI: 75
1/3 steals

Jacobs
AB 500
250 / 320 / 500
HR: 30
RBI: 85
2/3 steals

Shealy
AB 150
270 / 320 / 430
HR: 6
RBI: 20
5/6 steals

Gload
AB 50
275 / 330 / 400
HR: 2
RBI: 8
3/4 steals

sorry if the numbers don’t make sense, add-up-wise….

by Sean O Se on Jan 27, 2009 8:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No Gload

Butler
509 AB/550 PA
287/340/437
15 HR
75 RBI
0 SB
1 CS

(Extra: 41 BB, 69 K, BIP: 84 LD, 202 GB, 154 FB)

Jacobs
465 AB/500 PA
260/312/485
25 HR
77 RBI
0 SB
0 CS

(Extra: 35 BB, 116 K, BIP: 66 LD, 129 GB, 154 FB)

Shealy
232 AB/250 PA
250/304/425
10 HR
35 RBI
0 SB
0 CS

(Extra: 18 BB, 62 K, BIP: 30 LD, 60 GB, 80 FB)

by Gopherballs on Jan 27, 2009 8:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

JACOBS FOREVER

.284
.334
.520

Offensive MVP

by marbotty on Jan 28, 2009 12:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

that wouldn't surprise me one bit

30+ homeruns too

by GobbleforCyoung on Jan 28, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My turn!

Butler
AB 400
AVG .290
OBP .350
SLG .450
HR 18
RBI 87.5
SB 1
CS 11

Jacobs
AB 500
AVG .252
OBP .300
SLG .465
HR 24
RBI 77
SB 1
CS 1

Shealy
AB 150
AVG .280
OBP .335
SLG .430
HR 7
RBI 30
SB 0
CS 0

Gload
AB 100
AVG .282
OBP .309
SLG .344
HR 1
RBI 15
SB 0
CS 0

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Jan 28, 2009 12:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

WTF? C'mon, Gload?

I am tempted to flag all ya’ll’s posts that have Gload on the roster.

meat

by kabrink on Jan 28, 2009 12:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The predictions can be about heart and gut, but the roster and playing time are going to be about reality

And there’s a real chance that he’ll be on the 25-man roster.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 28, 2009 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

grrrr

yeah, unfortunately, I agree.

meat

by kabrink on Jan 28, 2009 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought "Heart and Gut" was just another name for Gload

by marbotty on Jan 28, 2009 7:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, that's "fire and grit"

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 28, 2009 7:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I guess Butler would be Gut

But who would be Heart?

by marbotty on Jan 28, 2009 8:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no longer

Butler is changing his name to “six pack” – not the beer kind!

meat

by kabrink on Jan 28, 2009 8:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Butler: 550 AB’s .305/.376/.496, 21 HR, 106 RBI, 0 SB, 2 CS
Jacobs: 500 AB’s .266/.319/.488, 27 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS
Shealy: 200 AB’s .278/.334/.460, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 28, 2009 4:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Straight guesses with a glance at fangraphs

Butler
AB 510
AVG .305
OBP .352
SLG .461
HR 17
RBI 75
SB 0
CS 3 (all on Pena hit-and-run)

Jacobs
AB 525
AVG .240
OBP .296
SLG .465
HR 25
RBI 80
SB 1
CS 2

Shealy
AB 60
AVG .300
OBP .330
SLG .425
HR 3
RBI 10
SB 0
CS 0

Gload
AB 325
AVG .255
OBP .320
SLG .380
HR 6
RBI 42
SB 3
CS 3

by ajblobaum on Jan 29, 2009 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I do not want to give any numbers,

I know they would just be guesswork. But I can say in more general terms what I think will happen.

Butler will DH and have a good year. Added power. I can imagine him OPSing somewhere around .825ish. Butler is a very good hitter and will only get better with playing time. Of this I am certain. Hopefully he will maintain his body in good shape.

Jacobs will get a good deal of playing time at 1B, but give way to Shealy after it becomes clear that Shealy is the better of the two players overall. Jacobs might be traded in July, or DFAed in August. Shealy will push and hit for more power, but his OBP will not be great. Think .280/.320/.490ish.

And, of course, Shealy will go into 2010 as the apparent first baseman, and then play terribly and the Royals will have no back-up plan and we will see Bloomquist and/or Teahen playing first base in June of 2010. These things happen to the Royals. No sense pretending otherwise.

Gload, who knows. I know the Royals will be loath to cut him but, unless he plays much better in 2009 than expected he just hurts the team. So either Gload will have a surprisingly good year or be cut early in the season.

Kila will collect a few at bats in 2009, a few in 2010. Certain people on Royals Review will wail and mash their teeth at the injustice of it all, and then he will be given away for almost nothing in return in 2011 and then fade from our memory. Unless I am wrong.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jan 29, 2009 3:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Will you humor me and give me some guesswork on 2009 numbers for Fukudome?

(and a brief explanation of where those numbers come from)? I’d be willing to quid-pro-quo with Guillen numbers.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 29, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fukudome

I won’t pretend to be able to accurately predict numbers for Fukudome other than in broad ranges. But in general terms he will be a good OBP guy, hit for reasonable power, play very good defense across the outfield, run the bases well, be a fan favorite and cause no trouble in the club house.

I expect Guillen to play better in 2009 than he did in 2008. I expected to see him OPS around .775 last year and expect/hope he will reach that level this year despite last season. I think Guillen will finally break the Emil line in 2009 and prove to be a marginal upgrade over the man he replaced. Overall, I expect about the same level of performance out of Guillin in 2009 that I expected in 2008. He will hit for moderate plus power and not quite tread water OBP wise, be a hack in the field and an enormous pain in the ass.

Why do you bring this topic up again? Isn’t it time to let it go? Do you think there is anyone who follows baseball who would not trade Guillen for Fukudome today?

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jan 30, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just curious

I don’t know if we can expect Fukudome to be a good OBP guy ever again. He had a good OBP through the third week in June. Then he fell of a cliff and didn’t have a good OBP at any point for the rest of the season. Look at his monthly stats. Things got really ugly and never got better.

Do you think there is anyone who follows baseball who would not trade Guillen for Fukudome today?

In evaluating a player, do their contracts matter to you at all? I’ll guarantee you that there are a lot of people who follow baseball who take that into account. They are both poor players. I think Guillen will be a better hitter going forward and Fukudome a better fielder. One of them is due 2/24. The other is due 3/38. Neither player is an asset to their team. I’d take the smaller albatross contract any day. A team that didn’t care about how much money they are spending might prefer Fukudome. Are there any of those anymore?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 30, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs