Community "Heart & Gut" Projection - Second Base/Shortstop (Aviles, Callaspo, Bloomquist, Pena)
by Scott McKinney on Jan 30, 2009 1:33 AM EST
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PrintI think we've probably gotten all of the votes on the 1B/DH CH&GP, and here are the results:
Billy Butller - 494 AB, .296/.354/.464, 18 HR, 83 RBI, 1 SB, 2 CS
Mike Jacobs - 488 AB, .259/.314/.488, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
Ryan Shealy - 222 AB, .267/.322/.439, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
Ross Gload* - 138 AB .276/.321/.388, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 1 SB, 2 CS
* - These averages were for the predictions given for Gload. About half of the respondents gave no prediction for Gload at all, ostensibly because they think he won't be on the roster at all in 2009.
And now, it's time for second basemen and shortstops. I didn't include Teahen because he's not a second baseman yet and we still don't know if he ever will be. He'll be included with the outfielders. German will be included with the third baseman. I'm trying to keep this to no more than four players per post to keep it manageable.
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2008 | KC | 102 | 419 | 68 | 136 | 27 | 4 | 10 | 51 | 18 | 58 | 8 | 3 | .325 | .354 | .480 | .833 | |
| Career | 102 | 419 | 68 | 136 | 27 | 4 | 10 | 51 | 18 | 58 | 8 | 3 | .325 | .354 | .480 | .833 |
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2006 | ARI | 23 | 42 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | .238 | .298 | .310 | .607 | |
| 2007 | ARI | 56 | 144 | 10 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 1 | .215 | .265 | .271 | .535 | |
| 2008 | KC | 74 | 213 | 21 | 65 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 1 | .305 | .361 | .371 | .731 | |
| Career | 153 | 399 | 33 | 106 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 32 | 34 | 3 | 3 | .266 | .320 | .328 | .648 |
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2002 | SEA | 12 | 33 | 11 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .455 | .526 | .576 | 1.102 | |
| 2003 | SEA | 89 | 196 | 30 | 49 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 19 | 39 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .317 | .321 | .638 | |
| 2004 | SEA | 93 | 188 | 27 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 48 | 13 | 2 | .245 | .283 | .330 | .613 | |
| 2005 | SEA | 82 | 249 | 27 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 11 | 38 | 14 | 1 | .257 | .289 | .333 | .622 | |
| 2006 | SEA | 102 | 251 | 36 | 62 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 24 | 40 | 16 | 3 | .247 | .320 | .299 | .619 | |
| 2007 | SEA | 91 | 173 | 28 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 35 | 7 | 5 | .277 | .321 | .329 | .650 | |
| 2008 | SEA | 71 | 165 | 32 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 14 | 3 | .279 | .377 | .285 | .662 | |
| Career | 540 | 1255 | 191 | 330 | 46 | 6 | 6 | 98 | 104 | 231 | 71 | 16 | .263 | .322 | .324 | .645 |
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2006 | ATL | 40 | 44 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .261 | .341 | .602 | |
| 2007 | KC | 152 | 509 | 58 | 136 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 47 | 10 | 78 | 5 | 6 | .267 | .284 | .356 | .640 | |
| 2008 | KC | 95 | 225 | 22 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 49 | 3 | 1 | .169 | .189 | .209 | .398 | |
| Career | 287 | 778 | 92 | 184 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 64 | 18 | 137 | 8 | 7 | .237 | .255 | .312 | .568 |
(If you click on the player's name, it will take you to his Fangraphs.com page which includes, among other things, his CHONE, Marcel and Bill James projections)
For each player, predict the following stats:
AB
AVG
OBP
SLG
HR
RBI
SB
CS
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haven't been horribly wrong in like a day
Aviles: 450 AB .302/.330/.440 7 HR 50 RBI 12 SB 3 CS
Callaspo: 300 AB .290/.340/.399 5 HR 37 RBI 11 SB 4 CS
Bloomquist: 400 AB .288/.320/.314 1 HR 20 RBI 9 SB 8 CS (treyball!)
TPJ: 100 AB .260/.280/.300 0 HR 17 RBI 3 SB 0 CS
Aviles (man, this is a tough on)
AB 600
AVG .285
OBP .325
SLG .440
HR 13
RBI 75
SB 9
CS 4
Callaspo (this is a pretty tough one too)
AB 450
AVG .285
OBP .345
SLG .385
HR 3
RBI 45
SB 6
CS 3
Bloomquist
AB 175
AVG .265
OBP .335
SLG .345
HR 1
RBI 15
SB 10
CS 3
Pena
AB 100
AVG .240
OBP .270
SLG .330
HR 1
RBI 10
SB 3
CS 2
The immoderate moderator
aviles: 600 AB, 300/.345/.450, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 10 SB, 3 CS
callaspo: 500 AB: .322/.388/.392, 1 HR, 46 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS
bloomy: 220 AB: .267/.339/.321, 0 HR, 20 RBI, 13 SB, 2 CS
pena: released in ST
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
callaspo
is he winning the batting title? Mauer was .328 last year
I think AC is definitely a .300 hitter cause he never K’s and he puts up a decent LD rate.
if he plays...
it’s not out of his reach. i agree he is a legit .300+ hitter.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
I just don’t have the heart to rip on TPJ again. He’s not Gload. Maybe I’ll do a pitching projection for him.
Again, all Projections are over 600 PAs. For some reason it’s just easier for me that way.
Bloomquist
Heart: scrappy guy pulls off a surprising (and deceptive) useful season, not unlike TPJ’s 2007
Gut: Willie Bloomquist=Willie Bloomquist
AB 570
AVG .272
OBP .308
SLG .328
HR 1
SB 20
CS 6
Callaspo
Heart: Luis Castillo without the steals
Gut: Esteban German without the walks
AB 559
AVG .301
OBP .348
SLG .383
HR 2
SB 8
CS 5
Avilanche
Heart: Poor man’s J. J. Hardy
Gut: Rich Man’s Bo Hart
AB 560
AVG .273
OBP .322
SLG .423
HR 12
SB 10
CS 5
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
Wow, Willie as a full-time starter?
You think so?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 30, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
we really should start a willie b PA prediction contest
for me, you start with a 200 AB baseline, and work up
he will play in hillman’s “system”, probably a lot unless the teahen to 2B thing catches fire and or callaspo has a hot ST and first week of season
I don't know
After TPJ proved how much he sucked, Hillman didn’t play him much at all. If Willie is as bad as most of think he is, I don’t think Hillman will give him a lot of PA’s.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 30, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
I guess the snarky reply would be
how can Willie prove he is bad anymore than he already has?
as long as his BA is catastrophically bad, he’s golden
that’s what did in TPJ: no OBP or power was fine, but hitting .150 for two months was the end
no
as I said, I just did over 600 PAs for everyone. Predicting playing time is one thing, predicting performacen is another. Then triangulating between the two to get a forecast is another. I just gave a per 600 PAs pseudo-projection to generate the rate stats.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 30, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Aviles
AB 534
AVG .270
OBP .314
SLG .438
HR 11
RBI 58
SB 11
CS 7
Callaspo
AB 389
AVG .294
OBP .358
SLG .366
HR 0
RBI 42
SB 4
CS 1
Bloomquist
AB 321 (ugh…..)
AVG .271
OBP .331
SLG .299
HR 1
RBI 15
SB 18
CS 5
Pena
AB 70
AVG .220
OBP .260
SLG .289
HR 0
RBI 4
SB 2
CS 2
- I think Aviles will crash pretty hard from last years high, but still put up decent numbers for a SS.
- Callaspo’s numbers are hard to guess at due to Teahen and Wee willie
_ I don’t think Pena will make the team out of ST, but I would bet he gets called up at some point after putting up a .288/.310/.387 line in Omaha after someone gets injured.
I'm gonna switch it up on you a bit sorry.
Mark Teahen 2b-400 PA’s - OF 200 Pa’s
Teahen Totals
555 Ab’s .270/.322/.407 12 HR’s 8 SB 4 Cs Rbi ?65
Mike Aviles
559 AB’s .295/.336/.454 16 Hr’s 7 Sb 2 Cs Rbi 70
Alberto Callaspo
224 Ab’s .295 / .368 / .357 0 Hr’s 2 Sb 1 Cs Rbi 30
Willie Bloomquist 100 PA’s SS, 50 2b, 25 OF
154 Ab’s .245 / .331 / .286 1 HR 6 Sb 3 Cs Rbi 15
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Some people just don't like to play by the rules
Hopefully you’ll re-post your Teahen prediction when we get to him and the OFers.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 2, 2009 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
I've got them written down so I can repeat them at the correct time.
I’m just trying to make your job difficult.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Aviles
AB 600
AVG .300
OBP .335
SLG .460
HR 20
RBI 75
SB 10
CS 4
Callaspo (this is a pretty tough one too)
AB 400
AVG .295
OBP .350
SLG .400
HR 5
RBI 39
SB 2
CS 3
Bloomquist
AB 250
AVG .249
OBP .320
SLG .330
HR 0
RBI 19
SB 12
CS 5
Pena – GONE! The numbers above assume no Teahen, but I hope it works out. Maybe we can trade Willie to a grit starved team, or banish him to wherever we put Ross Gload.
Unfortunately
meet Bloomy, you new starting 2B thanks to DM/TH religiosity morality team building theory. Callaspo is such an evil person he can’t be trusted, nor ever forgiven, enough to have enough character to play 2B for our pure team.
meat
alright
Aviles
AB 550
AVG 285
OBP 320
SLG 455
HR 12
RBI 60
SB 15
CS 7
Callaspo
AB 300
AVG 305
OBP 355
SLG 390
HR 2
RBI 40
SB 4
CS 3
Willie
AB 250
AVG 265
OBP 330
SLG 340
HR 0
RBI 35
SB 14
CS 6
Pena
I dont include him TPJ if Willie and Callaspo both get about 300 odd AB’s. Especially considering if Teahen really does get time at 2B.
Alex Gordon in '08
Moore saw something in Bloomquist
take what he did his first season and then just extrapolate that over a full season.
bloomquist for a 1000+ OPS
Mark Teahen will get 450 at bats there
this post is useless. I would be shocked if Aviles hits .300 again, but .280 seems likely
by GobbleforCyoung on Jan 31, 2009 1:14 PM EST reply actions
No Pena
Aviles
550 PA
525 AB
291/324/431
13 HR
65 RBI
6 SB
2 CS
[25 BB, 70 K, BIP: 89 LD, 207 GB, 159 FB]
Callaspo
450 PA
414 AB
316/371/386
2 HR
45 RBI
2 SB
1 CS
[36 BB, 32 K, BIP: 88 LD, 180 GB, 114 FB]
Bloomquist
350 PA
322 AB
276/334/321
1 HR
25 RBI
16 SB
4 CS
[28 BB, 60 K, BIP: 52 LD, 144 GB, 56 FB]
This Is Going
To be even iffier than the 1b/DH projections for me, but here goes.
Pena is gone.
Aviles
AB- 550
AVG- .290
OBP- .340
SLG- .450
HR- 12
RBI- 75
SB- 12
CS- 8
Callaspo
AB- 400
AVG- .305
OBP- .370
SLG- .395
HR- 5
RBI- 48
SB- 5
CS- 3
Bloomquist
AB- 200
AVG- .235
OBP- .295
SLG- .275
HR- 0
RBI- 20
SB- 11
CS- 8
Teahen (as a 2B)
AB- 250
AVG- .285
OBP- .350
SLG- .425
HR- 7
RBI- 35
SB- 8
CS- 3
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2009 11:23 PM EST reply actions
Aviles:
AB- 550
AVG- .290
OBP- .325
SLG- .440
HR- 14
RBI- 65
SB- 9
CS- 3
Callaspo:
AB- 400
AVG- .310
OBP- .370
SLG- .350
HR- 2
RBI- 40
SB- 2
CS- 0
Bloomquist:
AB- 200
AVG- .280
OBP- .325
SLG- .305
HR- 0
RBI- 15
SB- 15
CS- 4
TPJ:
AB- 50
AVG- .250
OBP- .270
SLG- .300
HR- 0
SB- 1
CS- 0
(The rate stats for TPJ are probably mathematically impossible given the small sample size, just run with it)
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
Hmmmm
Aviles
AB 550
AVG .280
OBP .340
SLG .450
HR 15
RBI 52
SB 10
CS 5
Callaspo
AB 200
AVG .295
OBP .382
SLG .360
HR 0
RBI 21
SB 5
CS 2
Bloomquist
AB 450
AVG .260
OBP .310
SLG .300
HR 0
RBI 34
SB 12
CS 6
Pena
AB 125
AVG .198
OBP .202
SLG .211
HR 0
RBI 6
SB 5
CS 3
okay...
Aviles
510ab .275/.310/.480 13HRs 58RBI 12SB 5CS
Callaspo
330ab .310/.390/.370 2HRs 31RBI 4SB 2CS
Bloomquist
I wish we can trade him tomorrow to the Jays or something, first bad GM off the top of my head
300ab .240/.295/.270 1HRs 23RBI 18SB 6CS
Tony P
17ab .176/.222/.294 0HRs 2RBI 0SB 0CS
send down to minors, converted to pitcher, Leo Nunez 2.0!
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