minus Eckstein…. so far

How about,

The most grit money can buy.

If there are good players with grit, we missed them. But we did stock up on quantity.

now… back to fixing the WAR spreadsheet (I’m happy, I think I figured out CHONE’s lgwOBA… we’re back on track… I might also do a “if I ran the Zoo” version

“look, we added some salary, but we added 8 wins.”

then he has more leverage for adding some more salary in 2010.

Sadly, it’s the Gload contract, rather than the Meche contract, that has been paradigmatic for the Moore regime so far.

Just wonder if GMDM is trying to create some hope.

we will have to wait and see about. I pray that I’m still interested in the Royals in August.

most of the time i agree with you and you do all the legwork in writing rebuttals. Makes it easy for me. I suppose I should +1 more but im getting lazy.

The best front offices use both tools-based evaluation (scouting) and statistical analysis. That’s what the A’s, Red Sox, Indians, and all of the FO’s with the best statistical reputations do. These organizations don’t turn their backs on scouting. They add a lot of statistical analysis to a lot of tools-based evaluation. What doesn’t work very well is to give short shrift to one or the other. Unfortunately, it looks like the Royals do very little in the way of statistical analysis. Either that or they just do it exceptionally poorly.

I disagree.

And Theo Epstein has as many rings as John Schuerholz in a a fourth of the time. And Pat Gillick has more rings than most. Judging GMs by their rings total is pointless, unless you believe Schuerholz is a lesser GM than Brian Cashman.

This isn’t stats v. scouts. The best ran organizations use both and are good at both. Neither stats or scouting is going to give you the correct answer 100% of the time. Unfortunately for the Royals, either their pro scouting (or stats guys) suck, they simply don’t listen to them, or there are no pro scouts or quantitative analysts. The key is that there IS a problem with the Royals front office, and seeing a team like Seattle do a complete 180 in organizational philosophy and outlook is going to cause some distaste.

Look up the comparable players that ZiPS and PECOTA shoot out for Dunn. I know Troy Glaus and Boog Powell are two from 2006. Not park adjusted:

If you sign Dunn for 1-2 years you’re probably safe. 3-4 and you run the chance of having him begin to fade. Anything longer and good luck.

Plus, let’s be frank, the Royals aren’t contending this year (or they’re very unlikely to), meaning if they’re going to spend the money, it should be on positions harder to fill than DH/1B/COF. Second base, center field, and catcher come to mind. The Royals had it right when they were pursuing Rafael Furcal and before they went first base heavy.

They have negatives which affect their value. But for 2/20, I’d take either of them in a heartbeat, as I’ve said for a long time.

however, my reading and understanding of the replacement level concept makes me believe that Kila could probably perform at replacement or similar performance if we put him in that position. However, I’d rather not do like we always do and rush the kid to the majors. I think it’s better to give him more time in Omaha to gain skills, consistency, confidence and prove himself. This will allow him to excel to whatever his abilities might allow rather than risk making him into a lifetime replacement level guy.

By definition, you should always easily be able to produce or acquire a replacement level guy.

For example, I would say that the Royals did not have a first baseman that they could have counted on to play at replacement level.

Gload is pretty much the definition of a replacement level 1B.

If you want a FA who’s better than replacement level and comes for less than a million, how about these guys, all available this off-season: Eric Hinske, Scott Hatteberg, Russell Branyan, Chris Shelton, Josh Phelps.

so your analysis is not beyond reproach but "we" know these players aren’t going to be worth what we paid for them? we already know that?

First, we don’t know for sure. But we have every reason to believe. And while anything is possible, not all possibilities are equally likely. And unfortunately I think we know what is most likely. Second, even if a guy like Farnsworth ends up shocking the world by pitching at a level worthy of $4.5M, Moore very likely erred in giving him that much money. There is no reason to believe that Farnsworth was a coveted free agent by many teams who were bidding heavily on him. The same goes for Guillen. I think Moore misread the market for many of these guys and attempted to pre-empt any other teams who might have interest in them by quickly grabbing them up. In so doing, he misread their value and significantly overpaid.

it’s impossible to argue if the outcome is preordained.

No outcome is preordained. I think it goes without saying that anything I or anyone is saying about the future is a prediction/projection. And some are on more firm ground than others. For instance, it isn’t preordained that TPJ will be a poor hitter in 2009. But it’s very, very likely.

it’s statfolk gospel that small market teams need to utilize these new tools to compete against large market teams, but I find that to be narrow-minded and dogmatic in the extreme. what the r’s need is an edge (duh) and, while it may cause consternation in the stat community, it doesn’t matter whether DM’s edge is in econometrics, so long as he is a superior talent evaluator.

First, a small market team needs to use all of the arrows in a front office’s potential quiver. This means using both tools-based evaluation and statistical analysis. Using only one or the other is basically closing your organization off to half of the ways you can do things better. If Moore and his staff actually were “superior talent evaluators,” then that would greatly lessen the negative effects of essentially ignoring statistical analysis. Unfortunately, they have not proven to be superior talent evaluators. They’ve done a good job overall with evaluating pitching talent. They’ve done an awful job with position players. And if you aren’t very good at both, then you need to be at least decent at statistical analysis, econometrics and market analysis.

The problem is that this “plan” tops out at about .500 unless and until a bunch of prospects arrive and actually perform well (which is never guaranteed). We have no idea if Moustakas, Hosmer, Cortes, Duffy, et al. will pan out. Most prospects fail. Even most top prospects fail. Moore will likely have to augment them with trade and FA additions. And so far it doesn’t look like he’s very good at that. And with smarter moves Moore could have bridged the gap to these prospects by getting the Royals into contention. Smarter moves this offseason could have gotten the Royals to a likely 84 wins. More shrewd moves next offseason get the Royals into contention. Instead, it doesn’t look like shrewd or even smart moves are likely from Moore.

we’ve enjoyed one .500 season since ‘94 and now we’re mocking it as a goal?

.500 is not the ultimate goal for any team. It is merely a rest stop on the way to contention. Unfortunately, Moore appears to be driving this team hard to mediocrity, but not beyond. He’s committed the Royals to $18M in 2010 to Guillen, Farnsy and Bloomy. There’s a real danger that he picks up Crisp’s $8M option and throws $5M+ at Jacobs in arbitration for 2010. Moore is working hard to acquire low-upside mediocrities which make it very hard to get over the hump. It’s a hell of a lot harder to go from 80 wins to 90 wins than it was to go from 70 wins to 80 wins. Does Moore have the skills to do it? It doesn’t look like it, unless and until a bunch of prospects pan out at the same time. So far it looks like a poor plan, poorly executed.

I’m not suggesting that Grienke plus two prospects can be smoltz, glavine and maddux or that Gordon mous or Hosmer will be chipper, but you don’t have to squint very hard to see what DM’s trying to do. these marginal moves that have so many of us so despondent seem tiny in view of the big picture.

I don’t see it. Are you saying that the plan is to wallow in mediocrity and hope that prospects turn into good players? Is that really his plan? If so, that is an awful, stupid plan. Yes, you want to build up the minor league system and you hope that prospects pan out. But you also need to wisely improve the major league team. Moore has done well with the pitching side of the minor league system. He’s done very, very little to add position players in the minors. And, more importantly, he’s done a poor job of adding (and keeping) talent to the major league team.

The plan should be to build up the minor league system and develop those players as best as possible, and at the same time do what you can within payroll constraints to improve the major league team in a way that doesn’t mess with the prospects (don’t trade good prospects for short-term improvements to the MLB team). That may in fact be Moore’s plan. But that plan doesn’t have a goal of .500 mediocrity while the team rearranges the deck chairs waiting for prospects to arrive. A key part of that plan is making wise moves to improve the major league team. I think Moore has attempted to that and failed dismally. He scored big with Meche. He’s failed dismally with the vast majority of his signings. And this offseason has been his worst yet.

These “marginal moves” show a significant degree of ineptitude with regard to evaluating major league talent and properly valuing that talent in dollars. That’s a big problem.

Thats kind of the way i see it.

i hate living in rural Ontario sometimes…. mmmm…. CHipotle

[sigh]

I guess that’s why I rarely even visit there anymore.

Jacobs has some value, but he’s a below average hitting first baseman. His OBP and OPS have always been below average for his position. And ever scouting report and fielding metric shows that he’s a below average fielder. Below avg. hitting for your position + below avg. fielding for your position = a below average player.

Remember that Davies and Soria would also not be on this team without Moore’re foresight

It’s the good and the bad that makes him a roughly average GM.