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by royalsreview on Oct 11, 2009 6:53 PM EDT Comment 33 comments

Somehow, there seems to be a growing consensus that the Royals should keep John Buck, try to get a draft pick by letting Olivo get signed elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Mariners shouldn't want Jason Bay, and the Pirates shouldn't want Scott Rolen.

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I miss Baseball game threads.

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Oct 11, 2009 8:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why?

Football threads on Arrowhead Pride are so much more awesome.

by NotAHippie on Oct 11, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda like trying to have an intelligent conversation in a high school cafateria

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Oct 11, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SHUT UP DUMBASS

CASSEL SUCKS

by Soria's Unibrow on Oct 12, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

That is a very logically sound argument..

I shall shut up now

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Oct 13, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

consensus where?

not doubting it, but haven’t seen that mentioned anywhere before now. if he walks and we get a draft pick, maybe but i think i’d have to go with olivo all other things being equal.

Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Oct 11, 2009 10:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry, Olivo certainly doesn't know how to "walk"

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Oct 12, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Royals Authority recommended the same last week

by royalsreview on Oct 12, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What are we going to be paying Olivo if we bring him back?

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Oct 12, 2009 12:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

~4 million

by royalsreview on Oct 12, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More like $5 million If the Royals make the dumb move and offer him arbitration

Remember, arbitration awards are not based on common sense, but things like home runs and counting stats, playing and service time, and comparables like Kenji Johjima’s $8 million salary. If Royals want to bring him back, the team should simply negotiate a new deal along the lines of the $3 million mutual option. Even if the Royals do not offer him arbitration, the team can still sign him.

The $3 million for Olivo’s mutual option might be the best he could get on the open market. Most other teams already have better options at starting catcher, and like 2B, teams generally do not spend much on catchers. If a team can sign Rod Barajas for $2.5 million, why would it spend more for the same player in Olivo.

by Gopherballs on Oct 12, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you can only get a full appreciation for Miggy by monitoring his whole season

if one only looks at his final numbers, they don’t look so bad, but he really did not have a good year. I don’t believe catchers get charged with wild pitches, but he could have/should have blocked more than he did. This catching situation brings me close to despair.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Oct 12, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

side note

JOhjima was probably worth more tomorrow, as I’ll touch on tomorrow ~15 runs difference in their defense.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 12, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not too surprising, but also something an arbitrator would not consider

At $8 million, Johjima is the third highest paid catcher in baseball. Relative to what other catchers earn, Johjima’s contract is horrible.

In arbitration, Olivo’s agent would be able to cite Johjima’s salary and then point out the disparity in home runs and other counting stats. Rod Barajas might the Royals’ best comp, but if the arbitrator splits the difference in the salaries of Johjima ($8m) and Barajas ($2.5m), that is still $5+ million.

by Gopherballs on Oct 12, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And the arbotrator can only pick one or other

And tends to favor players. If Olivo goes for $7m and the Royals countered with $3.5, Olivo has a healthy chance at walking away with $7m.

by kcbottom9th on Oct 12, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And if that happens I will cry bitter tears of sorrow

He would be getting paid $35,000 for every K.

by Soria's Unibrow on Oct 12, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The base contract will be for ~4 million

But you know Dayton will fill it with incredibly stupid incentives. He’ll get $100,000 bonuses for games played at 50, 55, 56, 73, 74, 75, 97, 100, and 112. He’ll also get $50,000 for every home run he hits, $10,000 for every RBI, and $23.76 for every hit. There will be no incentive for improving defense or plate discipline. Miggy’s agent will lobby hard for a bonus every time he strikes out on a breaking ball low and away, and Dayton will at least consider it.

These are my predictions.

by Soria's Unibrow on Oct 12, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to go out on a limb

and guarantee that no one signs Olivo if they have to give up a draft pick to do it. He’d be dumb to not pick up the mutual option.

by AxDxMx on Oct 12, 2009 9:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Type B, just gives us a draft pick, does not cost a team a draft pick.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Oct 12, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But, for Olive to get us a draft pick,

we’d have to offer him arb, right? Or am I wrong?

And wouldn’t it be a terrible idea to offer him that? What other team is going to offer him $4 million? He’d stay if we offered it to him.

by Bornin85 on Oct 12, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

*Olivo. You know what I meant...

by Bornin85 on Oct 12, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, the team has to offer arbitration to get the draft pick

by Gopherballs on Oct 12, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arbitration follies

Aren’t salaries granted in arbitration non-guaranteed?

If you accept that you’d rather have Olivo than Buck, then exercise the club option. If Olivo declines his option, offer him arbitration and sign Buck. If Olivo accepts arbitration, go through the process and cut him while you only owe him one sixth of his salary. The worst case is that you have paid most of a million dollars for an extra draft pick, and you probably have Buck for what you would have paid Olivo.

I would also give serious consideration to non-tendering Teahen, especially if it looks like he’s going to get something near $5 million in arbitration. If Mark Teahen is going to start for a good team, they better have at least 7 position players better than him, and there aren’t many teams that would pay that for their worst everyday player. You can probably find a free agent outfielder who will give you Teahen’s productivity (but, granted, not his versatility) for half or less than the Royals will be paying Teahen.

by konza847 on Oct 12, 2009 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

do you still get the pick

if you later cut him? i think in the royals’ situation we can’t play chicken with these guys…we need to cut the guys we can’t afford period and move on. i think you keep one or the other C, preferably olivo unless we somehow could keep buck for less, cut teahen and save our $$ for one or two guys that fill a position of need and can help us, like OF and maybe a starter.

Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Oct 12, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

The Royals only get the pick if the Royals offer arbitration and Olivo declines. If Olivo accepts, the Royals do not get a pick, no matter what they do with him later. That is why it is called free agent compensation.

by Gopherballs on Oct 13, 2009 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Managed to confuse myself...

…but the philosophy still works.

If Olivo is your first choice, exercise the option. If he also exercises, you have Olivo at a reasonable price, and you can non-tender Buck.

If Olivo declines, offer him arbitration. If he signs elsewhere, you get the pick, and you sign Buck. If he accepts, he’s going to be too expensive, so you still sign Buck and cut Olivo when it will only cost you 1/6 of his salary. You end up getting Buck for about what you would have given him in arbitration, and less than you would have paid Olivo had you gone through arbitration with him and held on to him.

The worst case scenario I see here is that Olivo signs elsewhere and Buck won’t sign but elects to go to arbitration, in which case he’s too expensive, and you have to non-tender him. Given that they’re both a couple of spare parts on a decent team, I don’t see a lot of downside to taking that chance.

by konza847 on Oct 13, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The first problem is that Olivo would very likely accept arbitration, so the draft pick is almost a pipe dream

Because of the quirks in how the arbitration process works, Olivo stands to make substantially more in arbitration — probably around $5 million — than he could get on the free agent market. If you want him back (and that’s a pretty big if), you avoid arbitration and simply sign him.

As for arbitration, the rule about non-guaranteed contracts only applies if it is one of the 5% cases that actually results in an arbitration award. If the Royals and Olivo negotiate a new salary, the deal is likely guaranteed, given his service time. And even if it is non-guaranteed and the Royals cut him, the Royals would have to eat close to a million dollars, which is a waste for a team with limited resources.

Or better yet, the Royals could avoid these shenanigans and simply acquire a better catcher (or at least a similar catcher at a better price) through trade, free agency, or the waiver wire.

by Gopherballs on Oct 13, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the only things that Gregg Zaun does better t han Olivo

are hitting and fielding

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 13, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Olivo is a much better baserunner: let’s build on that

Blank

by benfunke on Oct 13, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

JR Towles might be another buy low candidate

In addition to the few alternatives like Kelly Shoppach and Dusty Ryan mentioned in previous threads, RJ Anderson of DRays Bay and Fangraphs fame suggests Astros former top prospect J.R. Towles.

by Gopherballs on Oct 13, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs