Further Evidence Baseball Prospectus Is As Out of Touch As A Mike Meyers Comedy

by Gopherballs on Oct 13, 2009 7:20 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

From today's Christina Kahrl chat, following up on an answer in which she badmouths Ryan Sweeney:

vegasbill (Las Vegas): UZR and BPro defense stats both have Sweeney as a pretty great defender. Combined with his average offense he's a valuable player.

Christina Kahrl: Average for what, all major league hitters? Certainly not for right fielders; a .261 EqA from a corner outfielder isn't valuable, it's something you have to overcome to score enough runs to contend.

How did one of the main Baseball Prospectus writers completely miss the boat on valuing defense and positional adjustments?

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i think CK IS making a positional adjustment

just an inaccurate one, Sweeney hit enough to be a + hitter in the OF last year

by royalsreview on Oct 13, 2009 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I don't think he's a true talent 3.9 WAR player

But he hits for average and walks enough to be a league average hitter despite the lack of power, which combined with his plus defense (whether he plays CF or corner OF) makes him an average to above average player overall. Plus, he is only 24, and not even arbitration eligible. He is exactly the type of talent the Royals should be adding. It’s too bad the A’s have him.

by Gopherballs on Oct 13, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think what's frustrating

is that she just ignores defense. She should at least argue for the position that a run saved on defense is not the same as one on offense. I don’t agree with it, but this sort of thing just makes BP look bad and out of touch, as Gopherballs is pointing out. And Kahrl is one of those who are running the show there.

The irritating thing is that this isn’t the way it has to be. There’s an eerie and bitterly ironic parallel with the Royals — people running the show in both organization are smart enough to figure out how to improve the situation and have the resources, but for some reason (misplaced pride?) refuse to do so.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

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by devil_fingers on Oct 13, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

correction

only in BP’s case are the people smart enough. With the Royals…

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 13, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well...

i think they are in an awkward position because UZR has really caught on and fangraphs has put these stats out there to an extent that has gained a notoriety

I really think WAR, which isn’t perfect, is a real game changer stat, because it includes everything… VORP didn’t include defense, which does make sense, given the difficulties with D stats, but also is a gaping hole

by royalsreview on Oct 13, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

UZR is only one reason WAR is better than VORP

it’s the big one everyone notices, but VORP also has problems with positional adjustments and (of all things) walks. These issues have been pointed out again and again and… no change.

The thing with defense is that there’s no reason they couldn’t incorporate a better metric into their system (preferabily united with EqA/R, which is superior to MLV/VORP as a run estimator). They somehow got to continue using Dan Fox’s EqBRR after he worked for the Pirates, why couldn’t they have licensed some version of Simple Fielding Runs from him? Surely they could make it work with Gameday data or even STAT or BIS data. They’re making money.

But beyond all these issues, for Kahrl to simply ignore (and sometimes even arrogantlyl dismiss, in the case of wOBA) this other stuff is Dayton Moore-esque. She’s either 1) trying to pretend the “competitors” don’t exist, or 2) she simply doesn’t understand what they’re doing. I have a hard time believing 2). That’s embarrassing for a pay site. If it weren’t for PECOTA… but even there, the edge is dwindling, since CHONE is arguably better at projecting hitteres.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 13, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's funny

that some (not all) of the BP writers now act like the sportswriters that used to dismiss them.

by Gopherballs on Oct 14, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On a loosely Kahrl-related sidenote

Mark Ellis disaster season ended with him still being worth what his contract paid him.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 13, 2009 8:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heh!

personally, I LIKE some Mike Meyer’s comedies.

Wayne’s World was funny – and I’m not afraid to say it.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Oct 14, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps “Further Evidence Baseball Prospectus Is As Out Of Touch As ‘The Love Guru’”, then.

by 2X2L on Oct 14, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wayne's World (which I also liked) was 1992

So I Married an Axe Murder, for which I have a soft spot despite its flaws, was 1993.
Austin Powers (the original) was 1997.

by Gopherballs on Oct 14, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I liked the Austin Powers movies as well – but being (nearly) a senior citizen now, perhaps it is my tendancy to live in the past too much.

If I find a movie I like, I will rewatch it if it shows up on the tube, regardless of how old it is. In that way, Myers is not out of touch – but I can see how one could argue that he is out of touch with the younger generation.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Oct 14, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Myers was hilarious back in the day

Late 80s, early 90s, I think he was unrivaled in being able to combine both potty humor with sophisticated humor. Watch a sketch of “Sprockets”. It is utter genius.

Wayne’s World was hilarious. It captured a lot of that combination. Wayne’s World 2 was disappointing but he redeemed himself with Austin Powers.

And then it seems like he got stuck. He’s been doing the Austin Powers schtick ever since and its not funny anymore. I don’t know what it is about SNL alumni, but they seem to have great peaks and awful decline phases – Chevy Chase, Eddie Murphy, Adam Sandler…Will Ferrell is unfortunately headed down this path (although Step Brothers was pretty darn funny)

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 16, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Bill Murray did a good

and surprising job of not getting pigeonholed, cf. Royal Tennanbaums, Rushmore, Lost in Translation (which sucked, but he did it)

Sandler tried, but he’s a joke

I think Will Ferrell tried with that one movie, the “light meta-fiction” one that I can’t remember the name of. Maggie Gyllenhal was in it.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 16, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stranger than Fiction

which I thought I would hate as a trying-too-hard movie, but ended up kind of liking it. The role itself was not too much of a stretch for Ferrell, as it was basically the same character he always plays in his comedies minus the jokes, yelling, or camera mugging.

The phenomenon extends beyond SNL to Robin Williams and even Jerry Lewis.

by Gopherballs on Oct 16, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i liked the last sandler movie alot...funny people or whatever...

If Sandler’s a joke, what does that make Will Ferrell who’s made an entire career out of remaking happy gilmore?…seriously, like 5 different times

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 16, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not a big Mike Myers fan

but there are Chevy Chase movies that still make me laugh. One of the movies that nobody seems to like that cracks me up is “Nothing But Trouble.” You gotta love Dan Akroyd in that one.

by Salty on Oct 16, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs