Why is the AL better than the NL?
There have been a few posts recently where the difference in quality between the leagues has been a contentious topic in the comments section. However, nobody is arguing with the fact that the AL is unquestionably the superior of the two. Here a few quick pieces of data that back up that supposition.
AL Interleague Record 2008: 149-103, .591 winning percentage
AL Interleague Record 2009: 137-114, .546 winning percentage
Add that to the fact that the AL hasn't lost an All-Star game since forever ago, and it looks like the AL has been kicking around the NL for over a decade. However, the AL hasn't been quite as dominant as those facts suggest. In the eight years preceding 2005, the NL actually had a winning record of 988-960 (.507) against the AL. That said, the last five years have been really bad for the senior circuit. The question is why.
Many people immediately point the finger at the DH, but it doesn't seem like that could be the answer, or even a big part of it. If that was the case, it wouldn't make sense that the NL found sustained success against the American League when they started playing each other for the first time. In fact, I think that in interleague play having a DH is arguably a disadvantage. I don't have any data to support this, but it seems like it would be easier for a major league hitter to adjust to not playing defense than for a pitcher to adjust to hitting major league pitching. Anyway, the DH rule doesn't seem to have much bearing on the difference in quality of play between the two leagues.
The second major factor I could think of was payroll.
2009 Average Payroll for the AL was slightly over $93 million compared to around $84 million for the NL. This difference of around 10% is fairly consistent with the numbers for 2008. However when you look at the median payroll for each league in 2009, the AL sports a figure of about $81 million to the NL's $79 million. This is starting to get at what I think the problem is. The Yankees skew the AL on the high side. You could argue that the Mets do the same thing in the NL, but they still spend $50 million less and their exorbitance is spread over 2 more teams than they Yankees'. What really skews it for the NL is its bottom four teams.
There are four NL teams with payrolls lower than the most miserly AL club. About three of these teams spend on the order of half of the lowest playing AL team. I think this is the biggest source of the disparity between the two leagues. It has been shown (I don't remember where) that having a couple of players on your team that are well below replacement level can far outweigh the production of a couple of superstars.
Take the Royals and Pirates for example. Both of these teams are terrible, but they are arguably terrible for very different reasons. The Royals were a victim of ownership for some time, but for several years have proven that the real problem is the way the front office spends the money that they have finally been given. This is why many of us Royals fans are not always optimistic about the future of the club even if the farm system provides us with some good talent. The Pirates are largely terrible right now because their ownership has not really ever invested in them at all. A payroll around $30 million is inexcusable when they get help from revenue sharing to the tune of nearly $90 million (according to Soren Petro and Jayson Stark).
Payroll doesn't directly translate into wins (Mets) but a higher payroll does give you a better chance to win. For the majority of the AL, teams are awful because of management, not because of ownership. In the NL, this isn't always the case. Some teams are unlucky enough to have both be awful.
If the NL and the AL are to be equals again anytime soon, there are several National League owners that need to quit taking money from revenue sharing and putting it in their pockets and start investing some actual money in their ballclubs.
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33 comments
Comments
There have been a few posts recently where the difference in quality between the leagues has been a contentious topic in the comments section.
More specifically, the contention has been in the appropriateness of normalizing performance across leagues by applying the same factor everywhere — to all teams’ offensive runs, pitching runs, and defensive runs. Is the disparity between leagues roughly equivalent in all three areas? Is the disparity between the leagues the same at the bottom of the talent pool (near replacement level) as it is in the aggregate? How much does the unbalanced schedule need to be factored into such normalizations? Just questions for now; investigations pending, I guess.
This, this, and this were recommended elsewhere today as useful reading on the topic of the two leagues’ disparity.
by 2X2L on Oct 13, 2009 8:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Generally speaking
A run is a run is a run. It doesn’t really matter where the run is coming from.
The issue as I see it is whether the league disparity is driven by a few teams really sucking in the NL and a few teams being beyond awesome in the AL, or whether, if you remove the outliers, typical teams in the AL really are better than typical teams in the NL.
There’s no question that playing in the AL is harder. Players gain performance when moving from the AL to the NL, and vice versa (the MGL studies you cited are the best investigations of this I’ve seen). And there’s no question that the AL has completely dominated interleague since 2005. The question that remains is how ubiquitous this effect is from one AL team to another. I will try to look at that sometime this offseason, but don’t let that hold you back from pursuing it if you wish to do so.
-j
by JinAZ on Oct 13, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, in the context of a league, a run is a run is a run, and no matter how you achieve it, the difference between the runs you get and runs you give up is what matters. Bestowal of bromide status is imminent. There, it’s official.
Why should I assume this is the case for translations between leagues?
Certainly in the case of extreme talent disparity, being better in a vastly inferior league doesn’t help much — all the teams in such a league would be squashed like Cleveland Spiders in the vastly superior league, and there just isn’t enough room at the bottom to maintain their relative differentials.
Nobody thinks he disparity between the AL and NL is anything like that, of course. But I don’t know why I should assume that the suppression or amplification of a team’s performance when normalizing across leagues should act in the way the ranking system models it — as an an additive or subtractive translation of runs.
by 2X2L on Oct 14, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Someone at McCovey Chronicles told me that roster construction is irrelevant to translation between leagues.
I wrote:
Irrelevant to strength of schedule issues. Not irrelevent to an assessment of the ranking system.
To translate performance across leagues, the system applies a correction for an effect measured in the aggregate to specific entities and not to the aggregate. The results of this kind of application are bound to lead to silliness in individual cases. Example: the Giants’ ballpark suppresses home runs by lefties in the aggregate by x%, so perhaps if I apply a correction to Bonds’ home run numbers at home I should expect to get a truer picture of his performance. But that’s not what such a translation yields: in fact there’s no evidence that the park affected Bonds specifically to anywhere near the same degree as the league overall. The translated numbers for Bonds are bunk.
So, my question is: why should I assume that applying a uniform translation to all teams, regardless of construction, when normalizing performance across leagues? How do I know that some types of performances will be suppressed or amplified differently from others?
by 2X2L on Oct 14, 2009 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It probably is the case...
…that the “true” adjustment may vary from team to team, or lineup to lineup, or (in the case of component park factors like your Bonds example) from player to player. It’s an estimate, plain and simple. We make estimates and work with imperfect data in almost every aspect of baseball research, and we do our best to parse through them. Everything we do with park factors, MLE’s, just about any kind of run estimator, almost every quality fielding stat, etc, makes similar blanket adjustments here and there. And on average, they work very well. But sometimes, as MGL does in UZR, we try to break down the blanket adjustments into smaller and smaller blankets. Most of the time, it doesn’t matter much. But sometimes it does make an important difference for a particular player or team. It’s imperfect, but if you want perfection you have to toss out almost every single statistic. Even HR totals are prone to error given issues of umpiring (so do atmospheric conditions, depending on whether you’re trying to get out HR talent or just HR totals).
The question, of course, is how much uncertainty are you willing to deal with. The league disparity numbers are predictive at the league level in terms of interleague records, and they’re predictive at the level of changes in individual player performance as they move from league to league. As MGL’s third study showed, they’re also predictive at the level of pitcher-batter matchups during interleague games. I think it is an open question as to the degree to which they are predictive at the individual team level. On average, yes, they are, but there could be teams for which it doesn’t work as well as for others. The study I outlined in the other thread would try to get at that. Hopefully I’ll have time to do it at some point in the near future. My guess is that the blanket adjustments will still work pretty well, but I don’t know that and I’d need data to find out.
-j
by JinAZ on Oct 14, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is just a random grouping of better run teams in the AL
which i think has had a cumulative effect… the NL has been dumbed down this decade, and there are a number of teams like the Cardinals, that seem to be built to win 87 games every year, in the AL
by royalsreview on Oct 13, 2009 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts
The Yankees and the Red Sox are the primary reason, I think.
In the National League, teams can vie for the wildcard without having to worry about having to beat out one of the two best teams just to get the wildcard.
In the American League, teams are spurred on to make their team good enough to win their division, because in most years, the wildcard is essentially “unavailable”.
A subtle difference perhaps – but one that probably shouldn’t be ignored. One way to prove this theory would be to split the Yankees and the Red Sox into different divisions, thus making a wildcard “available” again. This might lower the “target” for some AL teams; i.e., how many games they are trying to win to make the postseason.
Remember, there is only incentive for teams to win enough to make the postseason – spending to win more games than you comfortably need would constitute a poor business decision.
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by loyal2sdad on Oct 14, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
also, through about 2006
The As were one of the better teams in baseball despite a low payroll because of their front office superiority (which has diminished as other teams have smartened up), and the Angels are also big spenders
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by devil_fingers on Oct 14, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And now the Rays come along...
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by devil_fingers on Oct 14, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, people should keep in mind
that the NL was superior overall, in the 1950s and 1960s because they integrated more quickly
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by devil_fingers on Oct 14, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dan Fox
…had a nice post a while back using pitcher batting as an measure of league disparities. It did a great job in the 50’s and 60’s. It doesn’t work in modern times given the DH and the fact that AL pitchers get so few PA’s, but it’s a great alternative measure.
-j
by JinAZ on Oct 14, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
recently read a decent baseball book that touched on this very same theme
“1964” was the book title (forgot the author). Focused on the Cards and the Yankees, but touched on social issues and how they impacted the differences between the 2 teams.
Integration, embraced by the NL but somewhat shunned by the AL, definitely contributed to the NL superiority during the 50s and 60s, and perhaps even into the early part of the 70s as well.
If you like baseball history, that book is definitely a good read. I believe the same author wrote “1949” as well, using a similar approach – but I haven’t read that one yet…
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Oct 14, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The author of the two books
was David Halberstam. The titles were “Summer of ’49” and “Summer of ’64.” Great books, though of course his approach is pre-sabermetric. For some reason Halberstam is extremely anti-Vern Stephens, though in ’49 he had one of the greatest seasons ever for a shortstop.
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by Juancho on Oct 15, 2009 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't need sabermetrics to understand this though
If you have 2 populations of players that range from HOF caliber to extremely bad, it doesn’t take a PhD Economist to know that taking players from both populations will increase the ability level of the team. The marginal production of the next available white guy that all teams are competing for is much less than the marginal production available from the other population that only half the teams are competing for. It was the original market inefficiency.
by AxDxMx on Oct 15, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd imagine that information comes from Cots.
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by Warden11 on Oct 14, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
I’ll assume that until I read otherwise.
by stlfan on Oct 15, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are other places for it
USA Today’s MLB salary index:
http://content.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/default.aspx
by AxDxMx on Oct 15, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cot's and USA Today...
…have inconsistencies across the board.
by stlfan on Oct 15, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've noticed...
So do you have a better source? I think past salaries are listed on fangraphs but current year isn’t always on there.
by AxDxMx on Oct 16, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing I found is that the definition of payroll is tenuous
For instance, signing bonuses aren’t included (usually/always?). When you find a listing, look at Sabathia. I think his signing bonus was 9 million, so that’s not part of payroll. Another exclusion – I believe – are buyouts.
by Salty on Oct 16, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, signing bonus shouldn't be part of payroll I guess, I don't think it counts against salary cap in football does it?
Should Sabathia’s bonus count against this year alone, or all years of his deal? There’s lots of ways to account for it.
Obviously payroll is going to be in flux since a lot of players have incentives in their contracts, etc. A snapshot is worth more than nothing though.
by AxDxMx on Oct 17, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it definitely counts in the NFL....
i believe it gets spread out over all of the years of the contract
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 17, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's right...
I forgot about that. I think it does it in Madden like that. Don’t know why I thought it didn’t count. Maybe it’s because of what happens if you trade or release a player. Only the guaranteed money counts against the cap or something I think (cap penalties).
by AxDxMx on Oct 17, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd think signing bonuses should be part of it
but like you say, its all accounted for somewhere somehow. The thing is when the Yanks say their payroll is 200 some million, in reality its significantly more because of the definition of payroll.
by Salty on Oct 17, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if its true for the yanks, then its true for all other teams in baseball as well
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by billybeingbilly on Oct 19, 2009 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure
But not many teams have 9 million dollar signing bonuses and multi milti-million dollar buyouts though. Keep peeling the onion and there is more. The point is that the “payroll” number isn’t accurate. In the case of the Yankees its more inaccurate than most or all others.
by Salty on Oct 19, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats possible...
but it doesnt really matter, regardless of how much they spend…look at their transactions this offseason versus ours. all of theirs earned their money, while ours didnt earn their money/had negative value
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by billybeingbilly on Oct 19, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I got the numbers from the USA Today article
I can look at Cots and see how they compare
by KCBear on Oct 17, 2009 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As I tweeted earlier
on the general topic:
anyone who doesn’t think there’s a difference:
Um, the NLCS just featured a pitching duel beween Vincente Padilla and the rotting corpse of Pedro Martinez.
case closed
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by devil_fingers on Oct 17, 2009 12:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you mean that doesnt compare to sabathia vs lackey?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 17, 2009 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Chan Ho Park still in baseball?
Can anyone answer me that question?
by AxDxMx on Oct 17, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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