So let me get this straight

by loyal2sdad on Oct 16, 2009 4:26 PM EDT Comment 39 comments

Bob Dutton, commonly believed to be a lacky for the Royals, cited driveline mechanic's article on catcher defense in his Royals article in the Star today. Basically, he was using that source as a reason why the Royals were looking to make changes at the catcher position this offseason.

So, let me get this straight:

Advanced defensive metrics are USELESS when trying to evaluate a shortstop you traded too much for to acquire.

Advanced defensive metrics are USEFUL when trying to justify a potential move you have already decided is needed in the offseason.

Thanks, Bob, for clearing that up for us. Granted, these two positions SEEM diametrically opposed to each other - but obviously that's my fault, as I can't be educated, don't trust the process, and am an impatient product of a "want it now" society.

0 recs | Comment 39 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

To be fair,

Dutton is just the mouthpiece. That’s not to say he doesn’t see how dumb a lot of it is. If he were to start spouting off, might lose his paycheck.

I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

by Warden11 on Oct 16, 2009 4:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah, I'd agree

I know I’ve been guilty of being hard on the KC Press a lot, but my impression is that Dutton is a good reporter. He doesn’t pose as an analyst much, and I think others have pointed out (although I don’t remember where) that there may be subtle signs that Dutton has had it with the Treyton Era (particularly given their recent condescending comments)

Also: not sure my catcher article could qualify as “advanced.”

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 16, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's more advanced than anything the Royals do

A lot of times Dutton’s articles are just rehashings of articles from royals.com. I don’t necessarily think he’s a Royals lackey, he just gets the same info and puts it out there. He doesn’t write a lot of opinion stuff, so he probably comes off that way to some.

by AxDxMx on Oct 17, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

It isn’t that Dutton is a lackey, it is that it isn’t the job of a beat writer to rock the boat that much. And in the sports media itself, I think Dutton has a very good reputation as a beat writer.

I also was wondering the same thing as d_f when I read that—that this might be a sign, however slight, that Dutton has had his fill of the Moore/Hillman regime.

by DarthYoshi on Oct 17, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't he high up in the BBWAA?

Or am I thinking of someone else.

by kcbottom9th on Oct 17, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is

Dutton was the BBWAA prez in 2008.

by DarthYoshi on Oct 18, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More to the point

It’s the job of the beat writer to report. Facts.

In the case of baseball, that inherently means “parroting the company line” to an extent, because your sources are… well, the “company.” When Dayton says this or Trey says that, it’s Dutton’s job to tell us; simple as that.

Where he may “fail”, if he does, is in the other part of the job, which should be “asking tough questions”. But since we don’t generally see the actual “questions” that result in statements from the sources, all we can do is read between the lines to try and figure out what Bob may have asked. Even so, if he asks a tough question and gets a canned Process™ answer, that’s not his fault.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Oct 18, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The question is

If GMDM and Trey call will you take the $9 per hour job for the team?

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Oct 18, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That post didn't come across as I intended

what I was trying to convey was that Dutton is essentially reporting the thought process of the braintrust.

What I was trying to insinuate was that Moore can believe in defensive metrics, when and only when, they support his already-concluded scouting position.

I really think this is a reaction to the Yuni criticism. The catcher’s defense is one argument where, apparently, the stats and the scouts tend to agree, so he’ll plant the mem in the press that “see, I use stats in my decision making too”

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Oct 16, 2009 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can see that

as I’ve said before, if Bob Dutton has some serious mental fortitude to put up with what he must put up with from these morons. Before, it was just Glass. Now, Glass has found a GM who is just as allergic to critical interaction as he is.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 16, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dutton's excellent

And citing DF’s study is further evidence. The Royals’ FO shouldn’t care about the report and they won’t.

by billexgordler on Oct 16, 2009 5:28 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

What're the odds that Dutton just threw the driveline post in there to appease the fanbase?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 16, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If "fanbase" = Royals Review + Driveline

Then you might be right. What are we 200 strong here?

by AxDxMx on Oct 17, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i guarantee its more than that...

will might be able to tell ya…

you also gotta add in quite a few non RR people that read rany

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 17, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just meant it's not like Driveline Mechanics is mainstream

It has obviously been noticed by important people though, and is usually good for an interesting read.

by AxDxMx on Oct 17, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're confusing Dutton with Kaegel

Dutton is the beat writer for the Star, and not at all a lackey or a “mouthpiece” for the Royals organization. He has to work with the Royals FO, so you can expect him to be respectful, but he’s generally pretty fair. Kaegel….well, Kaegel thinks DDJ should win a gold glove.

by kcdc1 on Oct 16, 2009 9:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually, DDJ is one of the best fielding OFers in the AL

by Gopherballs on Oct 17, 2009 11:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

There's just no way he beats Carl Crawford for a Gold Glove in LF

by AxDxMx on Oct 18, 2009 4:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That may be true in how people vote, but DDJ actually posted a better UZR/150 than Crawford this year

Crawford had a better UZR due to the playing more innings. In any event, the Gold Gloves do not break down outfielders by position — three centerfielders can win (and often do).

by Gopherballs on Oct 19, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is another reason why, DDJ in LF was a ridiculous player to push

by AxDxMx on Oct 19, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

DDJ was first in UZR/150 and second in UZR among AL leftfielders, and fourth among all AL outfielders in both UZR/150 and UZR. Even applying the 10 run positional adjustment between CF and LF/RF, DDJ still finishes in the top 5.

DDJ might not win, but he is a deserving candidate.

by Gopherballs on Oct 19, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and leftfielders shouldnt win GGs...

davey isnt even CLOSE to as good as most of the centerfielders…thats why he was moved off of the position

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 19, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The call it the GG for CF

And not OF.

by kcbottom9th on Oct 19, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DDJ's career UZR/150 in CF is +4.6

+4.6 would have placed him third in the AL this year among CF.

The difference between CF and LF/RF is worth about 10 runs. Even adjusting -10 runs for corner outfielders, DDJ still was among the best outfielders in the AL in 2009.

By UZR/150 (rate at which runs saved per 150 games played)
1. Gutierrez +19.2 runs
2. Sweeney +14.3 (includes -5 for half time in RF)
3. Upton +10.8
4. Rivera +2.9 (includes -10 for full time in LF)
5. DeJesus +2.8 (includes -10 for near full time in LF)

By UZR (cumulative runs saved for the season)
1. Gutierrez +28.5 runs
2. Sweeney +16.9 (includes -5 for half time in RF)
3. Upton +12.7
4. Crawford +7.1 (includes -10 for full time in LF)
5. DeJesus +5.4 (includes -10 for near full time in LF)

Even adjusting for position, DDJ is stil one of the best defensive outfielders in the league.

by Gopherballs on Oct 19, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, there goes one of the driveline columns I've been planning for a while

:-|

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 19, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like DDJ's fielding and his bat

But like you said, 3 CFers usually win the GG award. On top of that, Carl Crawford in LF has the general view of being better than DDJ. I’m not arguing that DDJ is horrible, just that he probably was an extreme longshot candidiate to win a GG. Those numbers above say something else, I’m just saying he wouldn’t get the votes, mainly because he plays in KC for a crap team. Greinke is so overwhelmingly good, people have to vote for him, or it’s obvious that they are biased against KC or just dumb (wins above all else!!!).

More reasons why it’s ridiculous:

Torii Hunter and Ichiro Suzuki have won 2 of the 3 OF awards EVERY YEAR since 2001. Grady Sizemore has won it the previous 2 seasons, and before that Vernon Wells had it for 3 years in a row. Prior to that Mike Cameron won it 2 out of 3 years, with a guest appearance by Darin Erstad in 2002 (he also won one in 2000, along with Bernie Williams and Jermaine Dye(!). The voters are nothing if not consistent in the AL. That’s a total of 6 different players winning 24 possible Gold Gloves over 8 years. Man, I wonder who is going to win this year, not Grady Sizemore, but my money is on Torii Hunter and Ichiro (even in RF) again, plus a CFer.

Also, the UZR/150 leaderboard for 2008 doesn’t match up with the actual winners either. The GG winners ranked 10th, 12th, and 22nd in UZR/150. DDJ was 14th last year. Teahen was 15th, and Guillen was 16th. All had a negative UZR/150. This only uses qualified players, of which there were only 25 in the OF. So Torii ranking 22nd seems to say he’s coasting by on reputation alone.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=y&type=0&season=2008&month=0

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/awards/mlb_awards_content.jsp?content=gold_gloves_history

by AxDxMx on Oct 19, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've said it before, I'll say it again

Torii Hunter is one of the most overrated players in baseball. More overrated than Jeter, who, for all his flaws, has been legitimately great. Hunter’s good at his best, and mostly a bit above average. People talk about him as a superstar. If Torii Hunter’s a superstar, so is DDJ.

From 2005-2009, Hunter has accumulated 13.8 WAR.

From 2005-2009, DDJ has accumulated 16.7 WAR.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 19, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who said DDJ would actually win the award?

Someone suggested that Kaegel was not impartial because “Kaegel thinks DDJ should win a gold glove.” Now, I could care less about Kaegel, but given the evidence that DDJ was one of the best defensive outfielders in the AL this year and arguably Crawford’s equal, suggesting that DDJ deserves to win the award is not ridiculous by any means.

by Gopherballs on Oct 19, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying I think he shouldn't win a GG,

I’m saying I think it is ridiculous because no one would vote for him. Why campaign for something that can’t possibly win? It’s like Ralph Nader for President, no chance of winning. You’ve got Ichiro and Torii plus room for one more likely CFer. Kaegel can say whatever he wants, but I find the idea of campaigning for awards to be tacky and a complete waste of time and money. To clarify, my thoughts are more along the lines of this Posnanski article from early September:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1159955/index.htm

by AxDxMx on Oct 19, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, let's just accept the status quo

by NotAHippie on Oct 19, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again, I don't think anyone in this thread, or anywhere really, is arguing that he will win

If a player is deserving of an award, I am not going to fault someone for pointing that out.

by Gopherballs on Oct 19, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's ridiculous because

the OF gold gloves usually go to three CFs anyway.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Oct 19, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is all a PR job in the end.

Dutton probably wrote this at the request of Dancing Dayton to throw us poor know nothing Royal fans a bone. Sorry, I believe sportswriters less than I do the Royals front office. I am becoming very very jaded when it is anything to do with the boys in powder blue.

by grudz96 on Oct 16, 2009 11:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs