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‘AL is vastly superior to NL’ argument doesn’t make sense to me (Casey Casem, set me straight)

 

Dear Casey Casem,

I don’t understand something and I was hoping you could dedicate a song to help me out.  I don’t understand the ‘AL is better than the NL’ argument.  It is very reminiscent, and is just as popular as, the famous “NFC-style football” argument of my childhood.  Which I never understood.  I’m technically on the clock at work so I’m not going to go rummaging around in football schedules from the 80’s and 90’s, but if I remember correctly, the format has always been that a given NFL team would play one entire division from the opposite league.  At the time that was typically five games, or approximately a third of your schedule.  In addition, there wasn’t any discernible (discernAble?...my Microsoft Word spellchecker recognizes both spellings…curious) differences between conferences—no rule differences or room for collective referee bias (like strike zone judgment).  Maybe some NFL superfan out there will tell me that referees from each conference judge, say, pass-interference or intentional grounding differently, but with a third of teams’ games being mixed between leagues you’d have to think referee ‘style’ was homogenized. 



Star-divide

Furthermore, both conferences have always drafted from the same pool of players (we’re getting to baseball in a second, bear with me).  Okay, so, you have the same players, the same rules, not much room for referee bias, and at least 30% of team schedules mixing conferences.  But that didn’t stop NFL commentators and my University of Iowa college roommate—who was from the Chicago area—from constantly squawking about ‘NFC-style-football.’  That spiel just wouldn’t die.  It was something about aggressive (blitzing?) defense and smash-mouth running offenses.  Correct me if I’m wrong, Gen-Xers, but the ‘NFC style’ was all about line-play and ball control.  Best I can tell this myth was built on the Bears and the Giants and Emmitt Smith.  And maybe the Redskins?  Never mind that Walter Payton was quintessentially not a ball-control back, that the NFC featured the 49ers who were the least smash-mouth team of all time, that Troy Aikman’s down-field passing shared at least half the credit for the awesomeness of the Cowboys’ offense, and that Marty Schottenheimer was an AFC coach.  Seriously, the ‘NFC-style’ was basically describing the Chiefs. 

Today’s version of the ‘NFC-style’ spiel is ‘the AL is so much better than the NL, they might as well just separate the leagues and make the NL a farm system for the AL.’  Every time a player, particularly a pitcher (CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee) switches leagues and goes from being a very good AL pitcher to a dominant NL pitcher, everyone crows about AL dominance.  KC Star reporters write absurd articles about how, if the Royals were in the NL, they would be competing for a playoff spot. 

I’m not rejecting the ‘AL is way better than the NL’ argument out of hand, I’m just saying I haven’t yet seen an acceptable explanation for it.  ‘AL pitchers are way better, as a group, than NL pitchers’, for example, isn’t much of an explanation.  Because, if you think about it, it doesn’t make any sense.  What you’re saying with that particular non-argument is, essentially “We are witnessing an incredible coincidence.  It just so happens that sixteen teams, which all happen to be in the National League, have simultaneously fallen victim to the same deficiencies: none of them know how to scout pitching, and their minor league pitching development techniques happen to all be terrible.  Conversely, fourteen teams in the AL all happen to scout and develop pitching very well.”

Now, maybe you could say league-wide rules or umpiring differences somehow have had an effect on how pitching talent develops.  This argument would posit something like “smaller strike zones condition pitchers to throw more hittable pitches.”  Now, that could be an interesting argument, but does it really speak to talent levels?  I mean, couldn’t Jake Peavy just go through a transition period as he gets used to the new strike zone?  In fact, wouldn’t that make Peavy a better pitcher in the AL, since he’s gotten used to working in such tight spaces?

Whatever rules or bias-based argument you might make to explain why pitching is worse in the NL…wouldn’t those same arguments necessarily imply that hitting is better?  For example, the ‘pitchers in the NL are more hittable because they have a smaller strike zone argument’ would have to also say ‘hitters are better in the NL because they get more hittable pitches.’  Or maybe they’re worse because they get more hittable pitches and therefore never develop the ability to deal with pitches that are higher or lower in the strike zone?  Is that what this is all about?  I guess then they’d be worse when transitioning to the AL because suddenly they wouldn’t be seeing so many hittable pitches, maybe this was Holliday’s problem in Oakland.

But even if you made arguments like those, you couldn’t make the leap that baseball is somehow inferior in the NL, you’d simply be saying it’s played differently and there are awkward adjustments for players switching leagues.  I’m starting to go in circles here, but you get my drift.  Arguments for league-wide superiority talent-wise just make no sense to me. 

So could you play “Lost In Emotion” by Lisa Lisa and Cult Jam?

Sincerely,

Lost and Confused

2 recs  |  Comment 21 comments

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Due to all the LD references...

I need to post as well. We shall see if the juxtaposition of Zepplin references will do anything.

(lost and confused) Dazed rather

Similar album cover post pic, and name

followed by my album cover post pic.

So back to baseball, I agree with the sentiments to this post. It is really hard to say an entire league is better than another. Especially for baseball.

Perhaps we are just in the middle of a pretty interesting cycle of coincidence.

Sponsor of the Will Ebner Physical Recovery Center for Texas Players Who Thought They Would Not Have to Worry About Will Ebner, but Now Do. The SWEPRCTPWTTWNHWAWEND building.

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Oct 22, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

liek you say, the NL teams with the money have wasted it in recent years
  1. Mets, #2 Cubs, #4 Astros have done a terrible job with their big payrolls (at best inconsistent, like you say above). Only the Phillies and to a lesser extent the Dodgers have used their high payrolls well.

Somebody somewhere (obviously I forget who) is working on a WAR-to-$ comparison to look at the performance teams got versus the money they spent, and it would be interesting to see those results for an AL/NL discussion.

Blank

by benfunke on Oct 22, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Average team salary explains some of the difference:

Average AL team salary: 94 Mill
Average NL team salary: 83 Mill

Removing the Yankees from the equation and the AL number is 85 Mill.

“If” money money was to buy talent evenly, the AL is better than the NL because of the Yankees. Get rid of the Yankees and the talent on the team, the leagues would be more even.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 22, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

and while i'm at it

top 4
AL: $552
NL: $500

top 10
AL: $1,048
NL: $1,013

middle 8
AL: $678
NL: $660

top 14
AL: $1,306
NL: $1,269
so without including the two lowest-spending NL teams (Padres and Marlins), the AL and NL spending is pretty similar. therefore we can say that the AL is 2/16ths better than the NL? ;)

but, seriously, at each increment, the AL is outspending the NL, and even if only slightly, it must add up.

Blank

by benfunke on Oct 22, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with Will

A National League team trying to make the playoffs realizes that they only need to spend enough to be competitive with the Dodgers, Cards, and the Phillies, and that STILL leaves a wildcard spot open!

An American League team trying to make the playoffs realizes that the wildcard is (nearly always) not available, due to the Yankees and the Red Sox being in the same division. This forces these teams to spend more if they truly want to be competitive.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Oct 22, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

and they HAVE to be smarter too

they also have to take more chances on players, etc etc

look at the cardinals… they’re basically the twins: a few tremendously great players and a bunch of randoms, now thanks to the AL Central, the Twins are in a NL-level situation, but neither team would really be competitive in the AL East or West

by royalsreview on Oct 22, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For whatever reason

the AL has seen a cycle of the new school GMs have success with mid to small market teams — Beane, Shapiro, Friedman, Daniels, and now Zduriencik — while NL has had maybe two in Melvin and Byrnes.

by Gopherballs on Oct 22, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

not disagreeing

Do you see Melvin as a new school GM? The noise from the fanbase, which probably doesn’t mean much, is that he loves HRs, undervalues defense, refuses to make position changes and is crappy at putting together pitching staffs. Again, I’m not challenging you in any way, just curious about outsider’s views.

by Salty on Oct 23, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

While not young and from a scouting background, Melvin has used a blend of scouting and stats

Zduriencik was his right-hand man, and while a scout himself, Zduriencik had his own right-hand man, this guy. The Brewers have certainly paid attention to OBA and putting together above average defensive teams. I mean, they signed SABR-Hero Mike Cameron.

by Gopherballs on Oct 23, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I remember when Jack Z first went to Seattle

there were a lot of disappointed Mariners fans because he was old, white, and a scouting guy. “That guy” had his own staff in Milwaukee and they weren’t the only people doing stat analysis.

I think DM likes OBA, but he also loves him some slugging.

by Salty on Oct 23, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

too bad we have neither obp nor slugging...

come to think of it, no speed or defense either

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 23, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, I'm buying the domino-effect argument

And the relative salary argument is also worth considering. I started thinking about this after watching Cliff Lee the other night (was it last night?…my nights are blending together). Someone I was watching the game with said “Of course Lee is dominating the inferior league.” My response was “Of course Lee is going to perform better in the NL because the DH is gone. In fact, it would be surprising if pitchers didn’t perform better in the NL. But that has nothing to do with the talent-level of the NL.”

Reading through the comments to my letter to Casey, I’m starting to think of where the big name free agents went this last offseason (they basically all went to the Yankees). And it does seem like the AL get more of the high-priced free agents. I think this domino hypothesis is pretty good…of course the AL Central/NL doesn’t spend big $ on free agents. They don’t have to! I like that.

*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"

by jackie ballgame on Oct 22, 2009 5:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

FWIW

I don’t think Lee really dominated the NL. Then there is the curious case of Chad Gaudin.

by Salty on Oct 23, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's real simple

The AL is better because they have more market share and thus more revenues.

Or, rather, the bottom of the market share list is heavily weighted toward the NL, with 6 of the bottom 8 teams in market size. That has a concrete impact on the experienced talent distribution, as those bottom 8 teams will naturally have a more difficult time retaining star players… who tend to migrate toward the dollars, which are primarily located in the Bronx and Boston.

That’s the simple answer. The AL is better because they have better players.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Oct 22, 2009 11:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just imagine how much more disparate it would be

had the Royals gone to the NL instead of the Brewers.

by BrRoyal on Oct 23, 2009 9:47 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Al teams hiring ex-Braves execs is part of a solution to the imbalance

Chuck LaMar, Dayton Moore, etc.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Oct 23, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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