The Atlanta Braves will likely try to unload Javier Vazquez this winter for a quality bat. What a...

The Atlanta Braves will likely try to unload Javier Vazquez this winter for a quality bat.

What a shame the Royals don't have a quality bat.

Greinke / Vazquez - nice - the Royals would lead the AL in K's at the plate and the mound!!!!

22 days ago Peterman700 25 comments 0 recs |

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This makes no sense

Vazquez put up over 6 wins this season, and at worst, he’s a 3 win pitcher making $11M. I think he’s at least as 4 win pitcher, maybe better. That’s a ton of surplus. Are they dumb enough to think they’re gong to get enough value back for him? They’d need to get the equivalent of a 6 win player (or equivalent value) back.

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by devil_fingers on Oct 29, 2009 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Guillen is worth 6 wins across his career, right?

Now there’s a trade we can all get behind ;)

by sterlingice on Oct 30, 2009 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ship them Jacobs too.

We’ll be nice and even give them Davies and Scot Thorman back.

by AxDxMx on Oct 30, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would also throw in Yuni

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Nov 3, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Better idea:

We keep Greinke, Butler, Gordon, Soria, and AA and below and straight up trade the Braves for their AAA and MLB clubs. That’s fair right?

by AxDxMx on Nov 4, 2009 2:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What?

Planet are you on?

Vazquez was one of the most dominant NL starters.

44 walks in 219 IP, a 1 WHIP and 238 K’s

[img]http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0eTH2sm73rf3u/610x.jpg[/img]

by Peterman700 on Oct 30, 2009 12:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I assume this is a response to me

I was saying that he’s an excellent pitcher — a “four win” player is very good. Vazquez has been around 6 wins this year, that’s one of the best players in the league. Zack was between 9 and 10 this season — one of the best seasons of the last 10 years or so.

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by devil_fingers on Oct 30, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he will regress some, but trading him off is dumb, especially in the winter

If I was Atlanta, I would wait til spring, see how your staff shakes out, injuries, etc. If you need him, you have him, if not some team will be desperate for a starter they just lost and then trade him.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 30, 2009 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

at that point though

the teams needing or being able to afford a quality starter will have dwindled b/c alot of them will either have signed or traded for a good pitcher or spent their ‘good pitcher money’ elsewhere. I dont think there are too many teams who go into spring with $11 million excess in their budget.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 30, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as a braves fan, you'd be opposed to trading vasquez with 1 year remaining...

for a good young bat?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 30, 2009 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, not dogmatically

I depends on the the particular player, I guess. I also mistakenly thought he had two years left.

So, yeah, they probably should be trying to see what they could get for him — but it would need to be someone pretty good. Purely in terms of ability, Vazquez is arguably in the rung right under Greinke, Lee, Sabathia, King Felix, etc.

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by devil_fingers on Oct 30, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so...given that vasquez has a full year instead of 1/2 year....

you gotta figure he’d get something along the lines of a CC return….

If i were the braves, 1 year of vasquez when you already have a deep rotation for a matt laporta type? I say yes in a heartbeat.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 30, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, something like that

Things are really different now, though. Overall, you could almost say that teams are overvaluing their prospects. I mean the league as a whole — I’m sure some teams don’t, or undervalue them. I’m curious as to what they’d get for Javy — even his ERA has been good two out of the last three years, but I think there’s still an aura around him as being a “choker.”

I wonder what they’d get for him.

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by devil_fingers on Oct 30, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it'd be interesting to see....

the FA class of SP is gross which should increase his value

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 30, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only if he stays in the NL

by AxDxMx on Oct 30, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Check it

According to Stat Corner (using tRA), Vazquez WAR this season was 5.8

In 2008 (AL), it was 5.6.
2007: 5.7
2006: 5.8

FanGraphs, using FIP:

2009: 6.6
2008: 4.8
2007: 5.1
2006: 4.8

That’s not Zach Greinke, but that’s a #1 pitcher fasho.

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by devil_fingers on Oct 30, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never thought he was that good in Chicago

That FIP looks pretty nice though.

A point against him is that he’s 33.

However, he did figure out how to have his highest K season yet last year, and it looks like the Ks went up because walks went down. So he’s probably good for at least another year or two. Maybe he’ll have Randy Johnson-like longevity.

by AxDxMx on Oct 31, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

his ERA was constantly higher than his FIP

so…he wasn’t that good. it’d almost be better if WAR used ERA instead. because at the end of the day it’s the amount of runs given up that matters, lucky or not.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Oct 31, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But that would remove the link between a players and performance and his value

If you are lumping all runs on the pitcher, negating the defense and luck than you lose any value it has in comparing and evaluating pitchers.

Evaluate them on what they can control. For the same reason W-L record is a crappy means of judging pitchers, so is ERA. ERA has far more of a link to actual performance than pitcher wins do, but is still pretty tenuous at times.

by kcbottom9th on Oct 31, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

except that

1) it wasn’t that much higher in 2007 or 2009

2) it doesn’t account for defense (given that Vazquez is a flyballer, Dye/Quentin/Swisher in CF 2008 Combo is relevant)

3) on “when” he allowed his home runs (e.g., with men on). Maybe that’s his “ability,” maybe it isn’t

tRA also takes into accounted batted ball types — so it’s a good check on FIP to see if he’s just getting lucky with FBs and stuff — he wasn’t.

I agree that you have to watch everything, but given the (non-)choice between ERA/RA or FIP/tRA for a pithcer, I’ll take FIP/tRA every time. I know this means I can never work for Dayton Moore (the guy I think we can now all agree is a LaMar-level catastrophe), but that’s all the more reason go with FIP/tRA.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

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by devil_fingers on Oct 31, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs