The Royals Offense is the #1 problem
Plain and simple. The defense has deep flaws, The relief pitching became far worse when DM thought "Inexpensive relievers were good, therefore expensive ones will be better", and the starting pitching fell apart due to the stretching out of most of the rotation.
But the offense put up the following stats in 2009: .318 OBP, .259 BA, .405 SLG, .452 Expected bases.
The Royals were 13th in runs (ahead of the Mariners), 13th in home runs (ahead of the Athletics), 13th in walks (ahead of the Mariners), 13th in OBP (ahead of the Mariners), 13th in OPS (ahead of the Mariners), 12th in OPS+ (ahead of the Mariners and White Sox). But the Royals are 1st in triples and they're 7th in sac bunts (Ryan must be shocked that being 7th in sac bunts isn't enough to make our offense more dynamic).
So why is Offense so important?
4 of the top 5 OBP teams are in the AL playoffs, or in contention. The worst OBP team in playoff contention is Detroit (.330). The top three OPS teams are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels. The top three AL teams are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels. The top 4 OPS+ teams are 4 teams in playoff contention (New York, Boston, Los Angeles, and Minnesota).
To have even a remote shot at the playoffs, your offense needs to be average. You cannot continue to rely exclusively on patching up the pitching and defense while ignoring the deficiency that places too much pressure on pitching and defense.
So why did our offense fail so often this year? We did not get any production out of the DH spot or the cleanup spot.
Here's the bloody numbers based on batting order position
| Split | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Batting 1st | 737 | 642 | 100 | 178 | 31 | 11 | 13 | 69 | 77 | 96 | 0.277 | 0.359 | 0.421 | 0.780 |
| Batting 2nd | 722 | 673 | 71 | 160 | 22 | 10 | 7 | 54 | 37 | 127 | 0.238 | 0.279 | 0.331 | 0.610 |
| Batting 3rd | 705 | 639 | 78 | 188 | 47 | 3 | 24 | 100 | 54 | 109 | 0.294 | 0.352 | 0.490 | 0.842 |
| Batting 4th | 691 | 626 | 71 | 132 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 71 | 54 | 157 | 0.211 | 0.281 | 0.316 | 0.597 |
| Batting 5th | 678 | 608 | 79 | 180 | 37 | 3 | 16 | 79 | 59 | 111 | 0.296 | 0.361 | 0.446 | 0.807 |
| Batting 6th | 661 | 605 | 77 | 154 | 29 | 3 | 29 | 82 | 53 | 125 | 0.255 | 0.317 | 0.456 | 0.773 |
| Batting 7th | 641 | 587 | 73 | 164 | 36 | 6 | 16 | 77 | 43 | 129 | 0.279 | 0.329 | 0.443 | 0.772 |
| Batting 8th | 624 | 568 | 67 | 138 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 82 | 43 | 127 | 0.243 | 0.300 | 0.426 | 0.726 |
| Batting 9th | 600 | 545 | 66 | 126 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 35 | 101 | 0.231 | 0.277 | 0.308 | 0.585 |
With a .279 OBP batting 2nd and a .281 OBP batting third, it's a miracle that we got 100 RBI out of the three-hole. If having three of the worst offensive spots directly in front of three of the best spots isn't enough of a sign of how awful this offense was, what is a way to get that point across?
How about a breakdown of various spots of the lineup to summarize what went right and what went wrong.
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| David DeJesus | 426 | 376 | 56 | 115 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 40 | 53 | 0.306 | 0.378 | 0.457 | 0.835 |
| Coco Crisp | 208 | 173 | 30 | 39 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 22 | 0.225 | 0.338 | 0.382 | 0.720 |
Apologies to people who think that Crisp having 3 times as many stolen bases makes him better than DeJesus despite DeJesus being much much better at things that help the team out. Also gotta love that DeJesus scraped together 50 RBI hitting in the leadoff spot.
So, who hit 2nd for most of this year?
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Mitch Maier | 130 | 115 | 16 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 29 | 0.261 | 0.336 | 0.357 | 0.692 |
| Willie Bloomquist | 326 | 306 | 38 | 80 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 48 | 0.261 | 0.299 | 0.369 | 0.669 |
| David DeJesus | 106 | 102 | 6 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 23 | 0.206 | 0.221 | 0.333 | 0.554 |
Good thing that we chose to have Bloomy anchor our offense (along with getting DDJ through the slump portion of his season in the 2 hole). Can't wait to see DeJesus shoehorned into the 2 spot next year as Scott Podsednik hits leadoff.
The 3 spot is a story of Billy Butler, outside of the random time given to Mark Teahen in the 3 hole for a reason that I can't remember.
But the cleanup spot is another great tale of fail.
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Jose Guillen | 199 | 181 | 19 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 13 | 29 | 0.210 | 0.281 | 0.337 | 0.618 |
| Mike Jacobs | 249 | 224 | 22 | 47 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 23 | 65 | 0.210 | 0.285 | 0.295 | 0.580 |
| Mark Teahen | 112 | 104 | 16 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 37 | 0.212 | 0.259 | 0.288 | 0.547 |
I can't wait to see Designated Hitter Jose Guillen batting cleanup next year. Mike Jacobs' year is pretty obviously bad. He only got 249 PA in the cleanup spot, so if he returns, expect Trey to give him 249 more. And Mark Teahen somehow did not live up to his reputation for clutch hitting in the cleanup spot.
And here is how the lineup looks if you plug the most frequent hitter into that spot
| PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | ||
| 1st | DeJesus | 426 | 376 | 56 | 115 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 40 | 53 | 0.306 | 0.378 | 0.457 | 0.835 |
| 2nd | Bloomquist | 326 | 306 | 38 | 80 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 48 | 0.261 | 0.299 | 0.369 | 0.669 |
| 3rd | Butler | 547 | 499 | 62 | 154 | 42 | 1 | 19 | 81 | 42 | 81 | 0.309 | 0.362 | 0.511 | 0.873 |
| 4th | Jacobs | 249 | 224 | 22 | 47 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 23 | 65 | 0.210 | 0.285 | 0.295 | 0.580 |
| 5th | Callaspo | 274 | 246 | 32 | 74 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 25 | 26 | 0.301 | 0.361 | 0.447 | 0.808 |
| 6th | Teahen | 208 | 191 | 24 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 15 | 33 | 0.251 | 0.309 | 0.403 | 0.712 |
| 7th | Callaspo | 154 | 139 | 19 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 0.331 | 0.383 | 0.496 | 0.880 |
| 8th | Olivo | 144 | 137 | 15 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 51 | 0.241 | 0.273 | 0.431 | 0.703 |
| 9th | Yuni | 152 | 141 | 16 | 35 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 0.248 | 0.273 | 0.362 | 0.635 |
Can't understand how the offense has problems with that group of players.
In an ideal world
the Royals would dump Jacobs, Guillen, and Olivo. But Guillen is stuck here due to the idiocy of Dayton Moore. Jacobs should be gone (if DM actually consults with Trey on roster moves, Trey has given up on Jacobs), and Olivo should be gone, especially due to his glaring flaws. Then we need to sign or acquire a proven catcher just to strengthen our team if Brayan Pena turns out to be a fluke.
This team should
1. Either let DeJesus bat leadoff, or trade him for actual useful players. The next centerfielder to get a payday by this team is gonna bat leadoff due to the 1970s mentality of the braintrust.
2. Groom Gordon to hit in the 2 spot if he can prove that this year was a fluke. If DeJesus stays, then the top 3 should be DeJesus, Gordon, Butler. If DeJesus goes, then the top 3 should be Callaspo, Gordon, Butler.
3. Consider the possibility of transitioning Billy Butler into the cleanup spot. Batting Jose Guillen cleanup next year will likely fail to help this team's offense. As well, the team needs a good cleanup spot option for when Guillen is injured. So possibly, the top 4 could be DeJesus, Gordon, Callaspo, Butler.
4. Realize that they traded for a guy who will bad 9th and not contribute much on offense or defense. Not that they can do much with Yuni.
5. Commit themselves to keeping Alberto Callaspo. Trading/Demoting one of your best hitters after this disaster of an offensive year sends the message of "Another 2009". Callaspo hits the ball on a team where there's not enough of that. Perhaps Callaspo can be the next Royals DH when Guillen is hurt. YES DAYTON, YOU CAN HAVE A DESIGNATED HITTER WHO ISN'T CONSIDERED A POWER HITTER.
6. Consider the offers for Mark Teahen and make a move if we can improve the team down the road. Teahen has peaked and it's time to go another direction.
7. Get serious about Brayan Pena. If he has such obvious defensive problems, either work on the problems or trade him. Pena has been good in small doses, provided that he's not batting left-handed or playing DH.
8. Not bat Willie Bloomquist in the top of the order. If you insist on using Willie's speed, put him 9th and hope that he can move Yuniesky over a base.
The Royals should not
1. Bring back Josh Anderson. It's one thing to be fast and useful. But Anderson is only slightly faster than the usual player and not too useful.
2. Expect Willie Bloomquist to be a top of the order hitter. Use him in the role he played in Seattle, not the one he played this year. He does not have enough pop in his bat to be successful in the K.
Plain and simple, the 2009 Royals offense was one of the worst in Royals history and probably the worst when compared to the times we live in.
You could have Seaver, Ryan, The Big Unit, Clemens, and Pedro playing, with 9 gold glovers, and if your offense is 13th in the league, you will not contend.
It's time that this team's braintrust realize what plays well in this ballpark and in modern-day baseball. Because if they do not, then they will continue to lose.
2 recs |
30 comments
Comments
it takes real front office talent to field a team...
that can’t hit OR field
well done Dayton
by royalsreview on Oct 4, 2009 11:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I should have made things scarier
by posting Guillen’s numbers as a DH this year, his cleanup spot numbers, and noting that he’s likely to bat cleanup as the DH in 2010. Holy shit was Guillen terrible as a DH and as a cleanup guy.
Here’s to the hope that Jose pulls a Jeff King on us so we can have someone play his spot who can contribute.
Hoping that the Tigers fire Leyland and steal Trey Hillman from the Royals
by BHWick on Oct 5, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im actually quite shocked that we actually got the lead off position right...
I know DDJ thrived there and Crisp actually did get on base even with his awful batting average, but to have a .359 OBP though not great for your lead off guy is still pretty serviceable… but the 2 and 4-9 hitters are another story I guess.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Oct 5, 2009 12:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
as noted
our best spots: 1, 3, 5
our worst spots: 2, 4, 9
kind of screws up your offensive flow
Hoping that the Tigers fire Leyland and steal Trey Hillman from the Royals
by BHWick on Oct 5, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really think Olivo is going to be back next year.
Which I guess isn’t the worst thing, if BPJ gets at least 50 % (hopefully more) Olivo has some use (I guess).
Basically if Olivo is the lone guy that should go that gets to stay then I can live with it.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Oct 5, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we need Zombie Michael Larsen to break the pitch calling sequences that Olivo uses
Olivo had 10 of 14 passed balls. No word on how many wild pitches.
Basically Olivo can
throw some runners out
hit occasional home runs
Olivo can’t
Make contact on at least 1/3rd of his swings
Handle low pitches
DM could just piss us all off and sign Henry Blanco
Hoping that the Tigers fire Leyland and steal Trey Hillman from the Royals
by BHWick on Oct 5, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on all the criticisms of Olivo...
and I dont think he should be back, but having said that I wouldn’t mind him being the DH who can occasionally play catcher. Granted he isn’t the ideal option but he is better than Jakers.
I just think of all the guys we have with major flaws Olivo will be the last one of them that GMDM abandons… even more so than Yuni.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Oct 5, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the payroll limit set by Glass will force Moore to think hard about bringing Olivo back for 2010, even while he sticks with Yuni at least through the end of his current contract — whether he recognizes Yuni’s flaws or not. While he had the courage to banish Baird’s mistake (Berroa) to Omaha and ultimately to dump him, I don’t think he will do likewise with his own. At least he has done nothing so far to suggest that he’s capable of that.
by 2X2L on Oct 5, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
especially when 1,2, and 4 are the most important slots
Yay Blomquist.
2 is underrated, 3 overrated.
Butler should hit 4 since a) he’s the best hitter, and b) the #3 spot sees the most GDP opps.
Assuming they don’t get smart and trade DDJ, he and Bert should hit 1 and 2 depending on the handedness of #3.
Gordon should hit 5 or 3. 5 is more important, and might also leverage his good baserunning better. #3 or 5 will be a mess for KC next season either way.
I’m skipping separate lineups based on platoons for the sake of my thumbs.
If DDJ is gone, the Royals should hit Gordon 1 or 2 vs RHP.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Oct 5, 2009 7:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
keeping on mind that
an optimized lineup gains only 5-15 runs a season.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Oct 5, 2009 7:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is that if we got Gload's 2009 production out of the #4 spot, we would have had 50 extra runs or 5 wins
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 5, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I put the position in a lineup calculator and here are results:
Lineup as it was ideally generates 4.324 runs per game or 700 runs a season
The best order 1,3,7,6,5,8,2,9,4 generates 4.490 runs per game or 727 runs a season
The worst order 8,9,7,4,2,1,5,3,6 generates 4.070 runs a season or 659 runs a season.
The lineup construction cost us about 3 wins, but the lack of talent is much more of problem.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 5, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not to get away from the main point...
You could have Seaver, Ryan, The Big Unit, Clemens, and Pedro playing, with 9 gold glovers, and if your offense is 13th in the league, you will not contend.
Ugh, elephant in the room…what about Zack? I know, it really was just one year, so it’s not really fair to put in the same group as hall of famers when he’s young and has his whole career ahead of him…but still, it hurt a little to see him forgotten about so quickly…I mean, if we, his loyal fanbase can’t even remember him, how on earth can we expect Cy Young voters to remember him?
And….scene.
/overacted
Formerly RoyalsFanInBillings
Follow me on twitter.com/MizzouCus
by MizzouCus on Oct 5, 2009 1:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The offense under Dayton Moore:
2006 – 757 runs
2007 – 706 runs
2008 – 691 runs
2009 – 686 runs
Unless I'm wrong...
My Twitter feed
by Top Ramen on Oct 5, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
the curve is starting flatten
PROGRESS!!
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Oct 5, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All right! We're getting worse at a slower pace!
Eventually we will flatten out and be consistently terrible rather than free falling into an abyss
by Olentangy on Oct 5, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just for fun
R^2
linear: .822
log/exponential: .945/.947
parabolic: .989
in the parabolic equation, the bottom of the curve was more or less this year, and the forecast has the team going back up the curve the same way it came down (not particularly exciting), with the team scoring 800 runs in 2014. frankly, not all that different that what an objective fan would have predicted.
Blank
by benfunke on Oct 5, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if we score 757 runs in 2009
I think we’re 9th in the AL in runs, instead of 13th.
It only takes 2 above-average players to really ignite an offense. If we replace the sinkholes in the 2 and 4 spots with good hitters, we’ll approach at least 725 runs by just making 2 moves.
Hoping that the Tigers fire Leyland and steal Trey Hillman from the Royals
by BHWick on Oct 5, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know why the Mariners were behind us in Offensive categories, right?
Because we took all the Mariners best players!!!
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
by 306008 on Oct 5, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Jack Zduriencik fans! Where is your God now?!?
(Oh. What? He won 85 games even with that godawful lineup and a limited chance to make changes to the team. Damn, you’ve won again this time, Z!)
by sterlingice on Oct 5, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teams without good offenses can still contend
You could have Seaver, Ryan, The Big Unit, Clemens, and Pedro playing, with 9 gold glovers, and if your offense is 13th in the league, you will not contend.
I know this is hyperbole, and the Royals certainly need to improve their offense, but the team that finished 14th in league offense would have finished one game out of first in the AL Central. Seattle’s defense was fantastic, but after Felix Hernandez, the pitching staff was half a season of Eric Bedard, a good closer, and bunch of fourth starter types and generic bullpen arms.
by Gopherballs on Oct 5, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind they’re not even an 80 win team without Langerhans.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Oct 5, 2009 5:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Seattle kind of confuses me
wonder if they’re due to bounce backwards, or if the players coming back in 2010 will improve
Hoping that the Tigers fire Leyland and steal Trey Hillman from the Royals
by BHWick on Oct 5, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The offense is crippled that is for sure
but improving the defense is probably easier and less expensive.
CF, RF, SS and 2b could all use upgrades defensively.
Maybe David Lough will be ready to contribute in the outfield and add some athleticism to RF or see if a another nonforward thinking team (Cincy Reds) would unload a cheap CF like Chris Dickerson since they probably like Stubbs more.
I’m sure GMDM wouldn’t think this way though so it doesn’t matter.
An outfield of guys like Chris Dickerson, David DeJesus and David Lough would probably save alot of runs. Dickerson doesn’t have much pop in the bat but he has always been pretty decent at drawing a walk (negative to GMDM).
I don’t know what they could do with the infield because to add infielders that are talented defensively can be quite costly.
Beltre, Figgins will probably not come cheap as I’m sure talented SS’s would be too.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Oct 6, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
don't worry
The only decent SS available is Marco Scutaro, and Im’ not sure what he’ll go for — either he’ll sign for too little with TOR, or someone will give him way too much. Good player, though — two years in a row of good defense, and his hitting is good for a SS and not fluky (I don’t think). Too old for the Royals to consider (assuming they’re smart — Dayton will probably offer him a Royale. You know, if Orlando Cabrera turns it down).
What’s his injury situation?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure
what the injury situation is.
Adam Everett is available also and cheap but I’m sure GMDM will ignore him since he thinks Yuniesky is the answer at SS. The M’s will probably sign Scutaro since Jack Z will know that they can probably get him to a decent contract due to his age.
The wisest thing KC probably could do without adding other players would probably just be to give Bianchi and Lough a legit shot at 2b/SS and CF/RF. Their seasons were probably fluky due to their high BABIP seasons but their defensive abilities would probably be an upgrade overall.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Oct 6, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like both Bianchri and Lough
but it seems like they should both start the season in the minors. Their defense is probably good, but it seems like both of their bats need more time. I’d rather not rush these guys in a season the Royals will probably be lucky to win 75 games.
The Ms are probably content with Jack Wilson for next season. Will Trifunel be ready in 2011?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh I thought Wilson was a FA my bad
Bianchi and Lough should start in the minors but with little payroll flexibility that might be a simple way to improve defensively.
A addition like Everett would be nice and cheap. Cameron, Figgins, Beltre are probably priced out of KC’s range.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Oct 6, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you showed something with Callaspo that could help us!
Just bat our best batters twice!
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Oct 6, 2009 8:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by 















