So Olivo is projected to be a Type B free agent... what do we do with him? "Under the terms of his deal, Olivo will make $2.7 million. The mutual option for 2010 is believed to be worth $3.25 million." (USA Today) So does he ask to come back? Does he not pick up his half of the option? Do the Royals deny the option and offer him arbitration?
What's the plan for Miggy?
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I offer him Arb and hope he declines....
tell him that he’ll be splitting catching duties with Brayan Pena and hope that convinces him to decline
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 8, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2009 was probably his career year
so conventional wisdom says, “Let somebody else pay for his success; he’ll never perform at that level again.”
But I think the Royals want to avoid the appearance of regressing in 2010 — and picking up Olivo’s option, playing up his power and his work with Greinke, and gritting their teeth while pitch after pitch bounces to the backstop might be a way they’ll choose to do that.
I’d just let him walk.
by 2X2L on Oct 8, 2009 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
unfortunately, walking isn't one of his strengths
Baseball's that swingy stick game, right?
by royalsroyalsroyals on Oct 8, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Hopefully the Mark grudzielank *wink, wink nudge nudge* arbitration offer
Both buck and pena are better offensively, and Miggys lone defensive bright spot (throwing out runners) seems to have evaporated
Let him go, keep buck, make Pena the starter.
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by RoyalPug on Oct 8, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Try and trade him for some magic beans
Or a minor leaguer or two of not much distinction. Someone will be seduced by the HR’s and offer something vaguely promising. With the mutual option he effectively has a no-trade clause, but i doubt he would kick up any fuss.
If I can’t do that, decline the option and don’t offer arb.
by kcbottom9th on Oct 8, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't think many teams would trade for him...
especially b/c he has a mutual option in his contract. Olivo could back away from the option and the team that received him would be SOL. We’d have to sign him first… then try to trade him. I think that’s too risky and we should just let him leave.
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by CollininCalifornia on Oct 8, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I mean
No one would trade for him unless he guarantees to exercise his option. Which effectively gives him a no trade clause. But that option is worth way more than he is worth, so i’d doubt he’d refuse to give that assurance.
by kcbottom9th on Oct 8, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the X factor is Greinke's apparent preference for Olivo as his catcher
my guess is that we have to grin and bear it while taking the good (Greinke) with the bad (Olivo’s turnstile at-bats and defensive style). fingers crossed that his batting approach matures to include more patience and more walks.
Blank
by benfunke on Oct 8, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Zack's catcher crushes come and go
Wasn’t it just last year he was in love with Buck’s gamecalling? Every year Zack finds a new date to the prom, so I wouldn’t base any decisions on that.
Baseball's that swingy stick game, right?
by royalsroyalsroyals on Oct 8, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The numbers say you can't let Miggy just walk.
Decline the option, offer arbitration to Buck and Olivo, see what happens. At the worst we have to drop one for 1/6 the arbitration cost. At best we get a 4 and a half million sandwich pick. Basically when you are getting 6-1 benifit to cost ratio, you put you rmoney in and see what happens. Having them both at spring training means you can decided then when you see all the catchers there, who knows someone may want Pena and may give us something good for him.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Oct 8, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Olivo's contract would likely be guaranteed unless the Royals actually go to arbitration with him
He would be in line to get around $5 million in arbitration, but unlikely to get that on the open market, so the chances of him accepting arbitration are high. Even if the contract was a non-guaranteed $5 million, the Royals would have to eat nearly $1 million ($833K) to cut him in spring training. It is a poor bet all the way around.
by Gopherballs on Oct 8, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs
Had his value this year at $9.8 million. Even if he regresses to 2008, they valued that at $4.1 million. I don’t think $5 million is a bad deal at all so long as he can still slug .450.
There just aren’t a lot of good hitting catchers that will be available for cheap. We’ll have to get by with stopgaps like Olivo into someone like Will Myers develops and becomes a cheap stud.
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by RoyalsRetro on Oct 8, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two issues
1. Fangraphs does not include catcher defense in its WAR calculation. Olivo is historically bad at preventing wild pitches and passed balls (he was historically bad this year) and was only about average at throwing out base stealers this year. I have not seen any of the 2009 results for WOWY (the metric Tom Tango developed for catcher defense based on WP/PB/CS%), but if I remember correctly, the worst catchers at blocking balls usually end up in the range of -3 to -5 runs (and remember, Olivo lapped the field in this category). In 2008, Fangraphs had Olivo had 0.9 WAR (not counting defense), so considering defense drops 0.3-0.5 off his WAR, it makes him a 0.4 to 0.6 WAR player. Spending $5 million on a 0.4 to 0.6 WAR catcher worth $1.8 to $2.7 million is a bad idea.
2. While a win is worth roughly $4.5 million on the open market (this might go down after last offseason), the Royals really cannot spend $4.5 million per win with their payroll limitations. And buying wins in a year in which the Royals are not going to compete is pointless. Like second basemen, catchers on the open market usually are undervalued, so the Royals should be able to pick up a 0.5 to 1.0 WAR catcher for $1 million or so. Or if you really want to pay $3+ million for a catcher, send a live arm to Cleveland for non-tender candidate Kelly Shoppach.
by Gopherballs on Oct 8, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't get me wrong, Olivo is not a good defender
but the large number of wild pitches seems correlated with the poor control of many of the Royals pitchers. Miggy caught most of Xaq’s starts and Grienke with his impeccable control only has five WP and a good CS%. On a team of pitchers who throw strikes, Olivo’s defense likely does not look quite as bad.
by swing and a miss on Oct 8, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zack has always had a good SBA %...
Wasn’t it last year that Grienke only had one stolen base against him with Buck catching? I wouldn’t give Miggy any of the credit.
Have you ever seen Miggy catch? I don’t know how you can argue that his defense it the fault of the pitchers. Sure about 10% of those are pitcher’s fault, but a catcher who has a 5 hole the size of the Dominaican Republic is far from average defensively.
To put it in perspective: Of all the Royals game I went to this year, (5) I saw Miggy do defensive warmups that included blocking one time. And that was just a phantom block which just dropped straight down. In college, our catcher’s did D warmup drills with specifically blocking to each side for 4 minutes. Olivo Blocked straight down one time. You wonder why his defense sucks and he leads the league with almost .8 WP’s per game.
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by 306008 on Oct 9, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wowy 's advantage is that in effect it "normalizes" the effect of other players (inthis case, pitchers)
in Cartwright’s post-2008 wowy study, Olivo was still historically bad with PB/WP
and he took it to a new level in 2009
I’ll probably do a non-wowy catcher defense 2009 post soon
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by devil_fingers on Oct 10, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is that not worth the risk?
The risk is 833 thousand vs 4.5 million, and that is worst case. I think he would still be tradable at 5 million, and might be worth that in value even if we keep him.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Oct 8, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the draft pick result has little chance of happening
Paying $833,000 for a 5% chance at winning $4.5 million is a horrible bet.
And Olivo’s contract will most likely be guaranteed — Olivo is not under club control, so if he re-signs with the Royals, his would be guaranteed and the team could not cut him in spring training for only 1/6 his salary.
by Gopherballs on Oct 8, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it is guarenteed it will be for less then 4 million for a player
that was worth almost 10 million last year, why the hate for Olivo?
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Oct 8, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Let somebody else pay for his success; he’ll never perform at that level again."
As 2X2L noted above, 2009 was a career year that Olivo has never come close to matching previously and is very unlikely to come close to matching in the future. His skillset (no patience/swing at everything) ages horribly, he has terrible platoon issues (his value in previous years has come almost exclusively from hitting LHP), and he does not even add defensive value. He’s a 0.5-1.0 WAR player, and at catcher, you can find that on the open market for $1 million, if not the league minimum.
by Gopherballs on Oct 8, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cause 23 HR
only meant there were 23 pitchers who couldn’t read a scouting report that said “throw the slider down and away”
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Oct 9, 2009 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe a DH only?
But then what about Jacobs, Callaspo, JoGui, ect.
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by 306008 on Oct 9, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Decline the option, offer him arb
At the very worst you get Olivo for one year at a pretty good rate and even if he regresses to 2008 numbers he’s probably your best option (the other FA catchers out there do not look good at all).
I’d non-tender Buck.
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by RoyalsRetro on Oct 8, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Buck....
I think the numbers say to offer him arbitration as well. If Miggy declines arbitration, then Buck is there to start next year and will be a free agent at the end of the year, and so there is a possible 4.5 million sandwich pick implied in keeping him next year and starting him, he is the same player as Miggy so he could very well be type B next year as well. At worst again, we lose 833 thousand. Our catchers are not the problem, they actually have value.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Oct 8, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if Olivo's option gets picked up you non-tender him.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Oct 8, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He wasn't very close on the list.
The FA types also go back over the past 2 seasons.
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by 306008 on Oct 9, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Save the money and go with B. Pena and somebody (anybody) at catcher
Neither Olivo nor Buck are worth the money they’d be getting in 2010. This team needs to really rebuild and save money for a time when it makes sense to spend it. Pena plus a replacement-level space filler for catcher in 2010.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Oct 8, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They are worth the money, and should be tradable, thats my point.
If they were replacement level players, then you drop them, but when they are leauge average players, if you drop them you lose out on thier value.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Oct 8, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, they aren't worth the money they'll get next year and I don't think anyone would trade anything for the honor of overpaying them.
Value? What value?
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Oct 9, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's your options
These are the Major League free agents currently available that could likely be signed for less than $2M:
Rod Barajas TOR
Josh Bard WAS
Michael Barrett TOR
Henry Blanco SD
Ramon Castro CWS
Jason LaRue STL (well, no)
Chad Moeller BAL (club option)
Jose Molina NYY
Mike Redmond MIN
Ivan Rodriguez TEX
Gregg Zaun TB (voidable club option)
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Oct 9, 2009 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who is the best pitch caller?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
by 306008 on Oct 9, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those are only some of the options
other catchers will be available as non-tender free agents, minor league free agents, and trade acquisitions.
by Gopherballs on Oct 9, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why I said
“Major League” and “currently available” and “for less than $2M.” Trade rumors has a longer list which includes the guys who’d cost too much (Victor Martinez comes to mind) and others who have MLB experience but aren’t on MLB rosters. For example, our own NWA “Crash Davis” Vance Wilson is on the list. Most of those guys are older and seem
I’m sure there will be non-tenders—I don’t study enough to know who is likely. As for trades, so far I’ve heard Dioneer Navarro is one who’s likely to be moved (although I don’t recall if he’s very budget friendly); don’t know anyone else yet, and I don’t know what we’d offer to get a half-time starting catcher (which I think would be the minimum for anyone coming in, even if Pena shoud be getting the majority of the work). True minor league free agents—i.e. no significant MLB experience—strike me as not happening, because the organization’s stated preference is a veteran to pair with Pena.
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Oct 9, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Others who might be available
Ryan Doumit might be available for a reasonable return due to salary issues. Chris Snyder is available and could be a nice risk/reward player as a good player coming off a bad year and injury. Cleveland has three major league quality catchers and needs to save money so Kelly Shoppach is a non-tender candidate (although Cleveland should be able to trade him before then). So does Detroit (actually four if you count Brandon Inge), and while they probably want to move Gerald Laird first for salary reasons, Dusty Ryan is behind Alex Avila and might become a decent regular.
There are certainly more but these are the guys off the top of my head.
by Gopherballs on Oct 9, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I offer him the Arb.
Sure we may pay a little more in one year than we would on the option extension, but then we’re rid of him and his Defense. I really don’t know who starts at catcher next year though… him or BPena. Neither is very good defensively but it beats having 3 catchers on your roster. Sigh. Especially one that never played or got to hit.
Decline the option, non tender Buck, gamble on Olivo and Pena being your starters. Of course, we have Vance Wilson stashed in AA. He had arm issues but could at least be a cheap (league minimum) backup as long as he stayed healthy.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
by 306008 on Oct 9, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Both Buck and Olivo need to go
I want the draftpick for Olivo and Buck can’t even hit .230 in a career year.
by GobbleforCyoung on Oct 9, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And yet Buck
has a higher OPS than Olivo…
by kcbottom9th on Oct 9, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mellinger says
in the interview that swing and a miss linked to that they’ll pick up the option, with Greinke’s preference for him clinching the decision. He makes the point by saying that if Greinke wanted him to play shortstop next year, he’d be the shortstop.
by 2X2L on Oct 9, 2009 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'd prefer Greinke play SS next year.
4 out of 5 days, of course.
Don't Stop Believing!
by KC Chris on Oct 9, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe they should sign someone like Jose Molina
Can’t hit his weight and is a GIDP machine, but handles pitchers well and is a plus defender. He made $1 million this season. Someone like Hochevar could probably use a catcher who can deal with sensitive souls and calm him down when something goes wrong instead of letting him get flustered and give up grand slams.
by swing and a miss on Oct 10, 2009 5:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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