Belichick Decison Calculator

Pretty cool.

about 2 years ago Freneau 11 comments 0 recs |

Comments

that is a good, straight-forward way of looking at it

hard to know what Colt’s chances of scoring after a punt are — 50%? (without looking at their normal % of drives scored on)

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by benfunke on Nov 16, 2009 5:34 PM EST reply actions

so take this with a grain of salt, but I was afraid that the Pats would go for it on 4th & 2. The way the Pats were carving up the Colts defense, I would have put the odds at least to 70% that they make that play. I don’t think it was a dumb decision by Belichek – it didn’t work, but it wasn’t dumb. If Faulk secures that ball before Bullit hits him, its a first down – absolute great play by the Colts safety.

by Valcour on Nov 16, 2009 5:44 PM EST reply actions

I'm with you.

You can either take it in your own hands and win the game right there, or you can punt, and let Manning win the game. Realistically, I know the Colts’ chances of scoring were less than 100% no matter where they got the ball, but I felt like Manning would score with a probability of 100%. I think Belichick’s decision making prior to that was subject to second guessing, but the 4th down call to go for it was solid, just maybe not the right choice of play.

I do think the criticism is unfair though, because if the Pats make the 1st down, Belichick is a genius, with a capital G. You are only dumb when it doesn’t work out.

by AxDxMx on Nov 16, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions

I agree completely.

For all the macho talk of football coaches, they make the most cowardly, follow the herd decisions whenever there’s any pressure on them.

Dick Vermeil spent most of his salary cap & almost all his coaching time on the KC Chiefs offense, but was incredibly reluctant to actually let the offense win games by gambling on 4th & short situations.

I think Belichick made a cold-blooded decision that his best chance of winning was to go for it, and he doesn’t care much what the media or fans think.

by hunter s. royal on Nov 16, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

bellicheck is one of the few coaches with enough good will built up to make decisions like this...

knowing if it goes wrong, he’ll be crucified, even if it is the right decision.

Coaches without Bellichecks clout cannot make decisions like this knowing that their job is safe

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Nov 17, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions

I Heard It

Posited as a 78% chance of winning the game by going for it. I can’t remember who said it (it was on ESPN Radio), but I have always thought this type of move would win more games than it would lose. A coach with a less secure position might not feel the 22% chance of failure and subsequent unemployment would be worth the risk, but I think it was the best chance to win the game for the Patriots. Now, Jones-Drew taking a knee on the 2 yard line with the team trailing by 2…………

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 16, 2009 8:11 PM EST reply actions

that was fucking retarded

never have i rooted harder for a missed FG in my life

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Nov 16, 2009 8:35 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, everyone's talking about how smart that was

But it was the dumbest play I’ve ever seen. A fumbled snap or a missed field goal, and you handed the opponent the game. I realize there was time that needed to be run off the clock, but you don’t take points off the board to run clock.

by AxDxMx on Nov 16, 2009 8:51 PM EST up reply actions

I have a new appreciation for Pats fans

even though I’m sick to death of their team. Why?

Over on JoePo’s blog, almost every Pats fan has agreed that it was the right call. The only ones who haven’t… well, you can sort of tell they’re morons anyway.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Nov 16, 2009 10:57 PM EST reply actions

Saddest part of the whole saga

Rather than spark an honest debate about the lack of widely available, intelligent stats that might shed some light on the situation, all the mainstream media did was repeat what the rest of the mainstream media was already saying.

In short, they insult their audience’s intelligence by not even entertaining the idea that it was a defendable decision, with the odds of a NE win being close enough on either side of the answer that NOBODY should be talking about it the way that Dilfer, Bruschi, etc. were.

Then again, it’s football analysts, talking to football fans – and I’ve always maintained that the average FB fan IQ is 20 points lower than the avg baseball fan IQ. This whole one sided debate is further proof of same.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Nov 17, 2009 3:43 PM EST reply actions