What would be an appropriate haul for Greinke?
by Rowyal on Nov 18, 2009 6:22 PM EST
44 comments
A good buddy of mine thought the following return would be pretty reasonable, while I disagreed and thought it would be way, way too much to ask for:
-An MLB-ready middle infielder
-An MLB-ready centerfielder
-Three AA prospects
-Three A prospects
-First-round draft picks from 2010 through 2020 (11 total)
He also noted Greinke's team-friendly contract and the following:
"Consider the value-added significance of Greinke in KC. Imagine how much interest in the team - not to mention ticket sales - would suffer if they made another Dye for Perez or Beltran for Buck, Teahan, Wood deal."
What are everyone's thoughts?
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'MLB Ready' means...
If a guy has Craig Counsell upside, he’s MLB ready. David Lough is a AA prospect. Salvador Perez is a single A prospect. So, would I trade Greinke for Coco Crisp, Craig Counsell, three David Loughs and three Salvador Perez’s? No.
The terms just need to be defined more specifically.
*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"
by jackie ballgame on Nov 18, 2009 6:40 PM EST reply actions
quality over quantity
I’d want a package with at least one all-star level player in return, then a bunch of quantity thrown in
i wouldn’t trade greinke for 6 picks
the beltran trade was a good deal...
he had half a season left as a royal, even for a great player, you’re not going to get a ton for that in most instances
it was decent...
it’s the rumored other deals that were passed over that bother me…such as youkilis…even though i hate him…and likely would hate him as a royal..hes good
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 18, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
Youkilis is my favorite player...
in the Non-Royal division.
This space for rent.
by averagegatsby on Nov 18, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
A utility player, a no-hit catcher who cannot throw out basestealers, and a pitcher who made Kyle Farnsworth look like Joakim Soria is a GOOD return? What would you consider a bad deal for Beltran?
Remember, as bad as Farnsworth was in 2009, Mike Wood was much worse.
hindsight my friend
At the time we were getting 3 of the top 100 prospects in baseball…
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Eh
CC Sabathia (Matt LaPorta/Mickey Brantley)
Randy Johnson (Carlos Guillen/Freddy Garcia)
Bartolo Colon (Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee)
Mark Teixeira (Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamaccia, Neftali Feliz)
And that’s not including the absurd rip offs Victor Zambrano/Scott Kazmir or Heathcliff Slocumb/Derek Lowe and Varitek
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
I'd take the Bartolo Colon haul
*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"
by jackie ballgame on Nov 19, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
If Dayton can't put together a promising team in the next 2 years, he will be traded.
Dayton’s worried about not getting anything for him after his contract is up.
Yeah, right now, no way in hell.
I’ve just got this feeling that Dayton will trade him for a bag full of Yuni’s and a Mystery Box.
Go for the box!
“You took the box. Let’s see what’s in the box!
NOTHING! ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! STUPID! YOU’RE SO STUUUUPID!"
by sterlingice on Nov 19, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
Longoria
Rays wouldn’t do it, and probably shouldn’t. Longoria’s probably at least as valuable as Zack straight-up, and when you include the contract… Longoria’s the biggest chip inthe game, easily.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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Would you trade Greinke for just one player though?
I’d say the only reason you trade Greinke is the chance you can totally replenish your organizational depth. Otherwise, you’re just trading a really great pitcher for a really great 3B, and honestly, I’d rather have a really great pitcher.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 18, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
see below
one of the best pitchers in the game vs. one of the best position players. The position player costs half as much for one more year and is two years younger.
Think of how many Kyle Farnsworths, Willie BLoomquists, and Jose Guillens the Royals could sign with the savings!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 18, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
when in conflict
I’d rather have the position player, based on a probably inaccurate assumption that there is a lower risk of major injury
by Will McDonald on Nov 19, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions
I hope that's sarcasm.
A starting pitcher that goes over 200 IP in a season affects just as many PAs as a hitter does. They just happen to do their thing in bunches.
So you’re saying you want 1/5 of the contribution every day, instead of 100% on 1 day?
You want to get technical then?
200 IP with 1.00 WHIP = 600 outs + 200 Walks or hits + Errors? = 800+ PAs, the MLB leader had 734 PAs. The MLB leader in Batters faced was Verlander with 982 and Greinke faced 915. Plus, pitchers do play defense, though Greinke only had 47 chances this year. Outside of SS and 2B I’d guess that the pitchers that throw above 180 innings line up comparably to everyone else. Fielding Chances + PA = Batters Faced + Fielding Chances
Example:
DDJ = 627 + 323 = 950
Zack = 915 + 47 = 962
I think I would take the pitcher
Just because of resource scarcity.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Also
When Longoria is in the “onerous” options years (you know, if the Rays decide to pick them up) making $11M, I’m guessing Greinke will be getting $20M, and that’s conservative, probably at least $25M.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2009 2:40 AM EST up reply actions
I found that using 7,6.5 and 6 over the next three years, Zack has a surplus in his contract of ~53M
Here is a table with what each type of prospect is worth:
Link
It would take Wieters and then some.
I will give out all the numbers later.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 18, 2009 9:36 PM EST reply actions
Sky's calculator?
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
That's a pretty optimistic projection, even for Zack
According to Fangraphs, only CC and Doc were worth more than 19.5 wins or more from 2007-2009, only CC and Webb from 2006-2008, and only Santana from 2005-2007. I’m not saying Grenke isn’t that good — he might very well be. But a lot of things can happen, especially with pitchers.
When I did my massive projection thing before the season started, no starting poitcher projected at more than abou 6.2 WAR (Either Halladay or CC). Now, several pitchers every year go over that, but you know all the statistical reasons why that’s not a great bet.
Again, if I had to put my money on a pitcher to be the most valuable over the next three seasons, it would be Zack.
Still, Longoria is two years younger than Zack, and only worth about two wins less.
Zack is owed about $35M from 2010-2012, Longoria is owed about $17M through 2013. Oh, and Longoria also has $28M in club options 2014-2016, which in this current market is what you pay an average free agent.
The contract makes Longoria a no-brainer. Half the more time.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 18, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
"half the money for more time and he's probably further away from his peak"
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 18, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
wouldn't zobrist be an even better value and better fit for the team?
we have a 3rd baseman, supposedly, but we definitely don’t have a shortstop
Probably not
Zobrist has a couple of warning flags about his performance. His BABIP was much higher than his career average, he swung at a lot more balls out of the zone, was lucky in conecting with those balls, but saw his overall contact rate drop, His plate discapline declined.
All in all I’d say hes probably due for a regression next season. I’d say at least 2 Wins if not more off his value.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
Yeah but as was stated above, in general trading one really good player for another...
Is just shuffling the deck chairs.
I mean, even if the Royals traded for Longoria, having him under control (even for less money) is pointless if you have him in a situation where he has no support.
We saw this year what happens when you put an incredible player on a shitty team…you still have a shitty team.
I have to agree that if you are trading Zack its probably better to get 3-5 Low-High A players with considerable upside than 1 incredible player. Odds are one of those players will pan out and give you the same value, and there a good chance that several do and give you a better chance to compete.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
I am not arguing for Longoria's. It is pretty crazy good
For a 6.5,6,5.5 WARs Zack’s surplus is 42 Million.
Zack’s best value was this season when he only made 3.7 million.
Here is the link to what each draft pick is worth on the June 23 article.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 18, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
A good trade with the Braves
Would be awesome. They have a lot of guys I like – Hanson, Heyward, Freeman, Shafer.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
And I hear Dayton knows a bit about that franchise
and how to trade for their castoffs
A fair trade
Perhaps should start by looking at his WAR. Only player in the game who was higher was Pujols.
Considering Pujols is older, if STL threw in a couple of decent A or AA prospects, that would be a fair trade.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
No one has the type of prospects it would take.
You would need an MLB ready C, CF, SS or 2B as well as 2 starting pitchers. Who could give us that?
I would take that --- What we need to get from him is actual stars or very highly rated prospects
The Hanson – Heyward trade would be great. 10-12 years (haven’t looked too much at service time) of service vice 3 years.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 19, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
It's not all about service time, tho
I remember that was a big deal in a BBPro league I played it with 27 other owners. It was important to get back that sort of value. But that’s if you’re talking about even value and potential. It’s not 2 years of an average player for a pair of might-be-average players for 6 years (hi, Mark!) as average players are not a scarcity.
But just Hanson and Heyward? Or even centered around those two and, say, a B and a pair of C guys? Yeah, the Colon trade looks good but that’s an exception. How’s that Johan Santana trade working out for the Twins?
Hanson looked great this year, but that’s just one year in limited time. And while hitters are more projectable than pitchers, we’re still talking a lot of unknown there. Obviously, if skills were “known”, then people would trade equal value. But it’s all about hedging here and guessing the percentages a player reaches a certain level.
If we knew with 100% certainty that Hanson was going to become, say, Gil Meche in years 4-6 and Heyward a, DDJ clone with 5 more homers per year: Would you do that trade? How about if Hanson becomes Rick Ankiel (pitching version) and Heyward Ken Harvey? Heyward as Pujols and Hanson as Santana? Hell, if the Braves knew they were getting the latter, they’d obviously be crazy to make the deal as the Royals and the former.
In short, amongst all the rambling is this- if I have a guaranteed 3 years of a player- I’d better be getting a ton back in return. There is no hand to force for the Royals. Hell, the pressure is much more on the front office to not make the deal. You thought the pressure was on Gordon to save the franchise- how about if you’re the one or two main players traded for Zack?
So, just trading a guy because the team is going to suck is not a reason. Particularly not when the same haul can be had in a year and a half (see trade of Lee, Cliff). Another team would need an amazing offer to even get close.
I don't think I'd do that one
With all the trades going the other way for years here, I think that KC would have fan support drop 50% unless it was obvious to even a casual baseball fan that the other team got ripped off on a deal.
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