Royals sign P Jorge Campillo
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 20, 2009 12:35 PM EST
104 comments
The Royals continue to the be the most active bidders on the minor league free agent market. Not content with guys like Wilson Betimet, John Bannister, Edwin Bellorin or Brad Thompson, the Royals today announced the signing of P Jorge Campillo. Campillo, 30, has the benefit of being both an ex-Mariner AND an ex-Brave. He only pitched 4 1/3 innings in the big leagues in 2009 due to shoulder tendinitis, but he posted a 3.91 ERA in 158 2/3 innings in 2008 with Atlanta. He is another soft-tosser, but a strikethrower with a 2.39 BB/9 innings in 180 MLB innings.
Campillo was a teammate of Joakim Soria for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic in 2009.
Two reasons to like Jorge Campillo
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Its good to see Dayton grabbing low risk/high reward guys
like Campillo and thompson
If he performs he could be a very good #4 guy, and if he doesn’t then the royals are out what? .4 million?
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
you could say this about just about every major league pitcher
what are the odds that Campillo is “high reward”?
by Will McDonald on Nov 20, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty good I'd say
His FIP in 2008 was 4.00. What would that command on the open market? $8-10 million?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
yea, I don't mean to hate on Campy (guaranteed this will be his Hillman nickname)
but to me, only a certain kind of player can really get classed as a low-risk/high-reward guy… I like the low-cost aspect, I’m just not sure Campy has huge breakout potential
by Will McDonald on Nov 20, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
You're correct - there's no high reward
He’s a great example for freely available replacement level talent. Campillo is a backup if one of the regular starters has an injury or completely falls about. You can call also use him to fill in the bullpen.
You spend a minor league salary (and possibly a pro-rated MLB minimum salary) on a guy like this instead of spending a million or two on some equivalent mediocrity who earns more money only because the other guys is an “established” MLB player.
It’s a good signing for roster flexibility and organizational depth.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 20, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't say that there isn't a high reward...
If Campillo can put up a 4.00 FIP over 160 innings again that makes him a ~3 WAR player (Carl Pavano put up 3.7WAR over 198 innings with 4.00 FIP last year).
Anyone care to name all the Royals that were worth ~3 Wins last year?
Its a short short list:
Greinke
Bannister
DeJesus
Callaspo
Needless to say, replaceing someone like Davies(0 WAR) or Chen/Ponson(.1 Combined) With a cheap guy like Campillo is a pretty high reward for a minor league contract.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
Do you really think that Campillo is a roughly league average starter???
4.00 FIP puts him right in the middle of the pack for FIP among qualiifed starting pitchers in 2009.
Expecting Campillo to be a league average starter is like walking up to a craps table and betting on boxcars showing three times in succession. It’s not impossible, but the odds are long against you.
You can’t rely just sit and look at numbers. You need to combine both numerical analysis and observational analysis. Every team in baseball is aware of his 2008 season. Every team in baseball, including those whose numeric analysis would put any of us to shame, views that as almost totally unlikely to happen again.
Because there isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t sign a guy who has areasonable chance of being a league average pitcher to a MLB contract. The fact that he was floating around as an unsigned FA who signed a minor league contract tells you that no one who has looked at him seriously believes he is reasonably capable of being a league average. Heck, they don’t even think he’s much of a candidate as a 5th starter, or there would have been more interest in him.
Now I’m not saying that the people who make decisions in MLB offices are all-konwing and all-wise. There are plentiful examples where teams have simply blown it, a good example being that 11 teams passed on Tim Lincecum in the draft despite his college numbers, despite his numbers at Univ of Washington just because his approach to pitching was “unconventional”. At the time there were knowledgeable people who believed MLB teams were wrong ant were not properly evaluating Lincecum. Most importantly those observers had clearly well-thought opionions as to where the errors in thinking in MLB were occurring. Dare I say those observers feel a certain amount of vindication?
With that caveat in place let’s return to Campillo. You seem to think that he has a reasonable potential of being more than a replacement level fill-in. Speaking for myself, I would like to know what there is about Campillo that eveyone else has overlooked.
Without that there is no reason to assume that Campillo os part of the 0.01% of pitchers of his type that are successful, and not part of the 99.99% for whom replacement level major leaguer is the ceiling.
Lacking that, I think you’re simply engaged in wishful thinking. As a fan, I certainly enjoy wishful thinking. Part of the joy of being a fan is believing in “our boys”. But when it’s a situation in which clear thinking is more important than simple rooting, we’ve got to be able to set that aside.
Campillo is a nice addition to invite to camp as a NRI and to have in Omaha as pitching depth. That’s what he’s worth, and that’s probably what he got (I’m assuming he shows up in camp as a NRI with a chance to make the club).
by Steve Nelson on Nov 21, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes I do
But you seem to be missing the point of the saying, low risk/high reward.
By its definition its a bet, one in which you wager little for something that possibly has a much greater value.
I’m saying that for a little risk (At most 400K, much much less if the bet is a losing one) the Royals picked up someone that has a good chance (I’d say 25-50% of being a potential #3 pitcher and a better chance of at least being better than almost any other option the Royals have.
I ground this belief on several things. First that Campillo’s track record(injuries aside) don’t point to 2008 being a fluke. He may not have dominating stuff, but he does keep his walks down, has a good K/BB ratio, and perhaps most tellingly has almost perfectly average rate stats(GB%,FB%, HR/FB, HR/9, K/9 etc.) which would seem to indicate that he is infact a perfectly average pitcher.(average being the key word here…an average pitcher who can qualify in innings is still worth 2-3 Wins)
Second is that his injury (tendenitis) Is one that shouldn’t impact his pitching ability.
Thirdly his injury seems to stem from pitching in the WBC (thank you bud selig)
Finally the best recourse to treat said injury is rest, namely 6-12 weeks worth in bad cases. Now I may be wrong, but since the Braves shut him down pretty early last year, I can’t help but think that even in the worst case scenario where he’d need surgery, that he shouldn’t be back to 100% by ST.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
This is a very high hope.
I’d say 25-50% of being a potential #3
This is a guy who has a max potential of being a 3 and you’re saying he has a 25-50% percent of achieving his absolute max?
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
I'm saying he has a 25-50% chance
Of returning to where hes already been and to where all his minor league stats say he should be after an injury that rarely has a long term effect on a player.
and I wouldn’t say his max potential was a #3…he could have a crazy bannister rookie year-esque season and put up solid #2 numbers, or that he could struggle and be a servicable #4. I’d say a #3 is what he most likely is.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
I think the ultimate point here
is that MLB rosters will almost certainly contain at least 50 pitchers who (1) won’t be that good and (2) will get paid a hell of a lot more than Campillo will. In that event, it will most certainly be a high-reward gamble.
I think it’s important to realize that “high reward” isn’t reserved for signing some old guy named Roy Hobbs. A “high reward” really applies to any situation wherein your marginal value greatly exceeds your marginal expense.
This space for rent.
Following that logic every AAAA player is, by definition, a high reward gamble.
There’s nothing to distinguish Campillo from any other pitcher in that category of players who float between AAA and MLB. In fact, I think he’s a cut below that.
For example, yesterday the Pirates claimed Chris Jakubauskas from the Mariners on waivers. The Royals passed on Jakubauskas; else he wouldn’t have gone to the Pirates.
Between the two I would take Jak – but that’s irrelevant. For practical purposes Jak and healthy Campillo are not much different; or to be more precise, Jakubauskas is the upside for a healthy Campillo, as are about 50 to 100 other pitchers at that level.
########
Since every AAAA player offers a similar risk reward, I don’t think this is a situation in which the marginal value greatly exceeds the marginal expense. It’s simply a case where the cost and the risk adjusted benefit are in balance, as it would be with most any other similar caliber player.
If you want to bring marginal value into the discussion you would need to show that marginal value of acquiring Campillo is greater than the marginal value for all of the other options that were available on the same contract. Because even if Campillo’s marginal value greatly exceeds the marginal expense, it’s not not the smart decision if acquiring Campillo means that you forego other options that have an even more favorable calculus.
For example, if acquiring Campillo resulted in the Royals not putting in a claim on Jakubauskas, I would say that the marginal value resulting from signing Campillo would have been completely washed away.
#########
BTW – I’m not asserting that the two transactions were linked that way. I don’t see a reason why signing Campillo would preclude putting in a claim on Jakubauskas. I’m merely using the Jakubauskas situation as a foil to illustrate my point.
But I do wonder why the Royals wouldn’t have put in a claim on Jakubauskas. Jak appears to me to be exactly the type of pitcher the Royals should want. For the price of a waiver claim and a spot on the 40-man roster they could get a guy who is almost certainly better than what the Royals ran out there in the #5 spot last season and whose potential to be a #3 starter is hugely greater than is Campillo’s.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 21, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
I guess it depends on how you define "high reward"
If “high reward” means that the player becomes a star, then Campillo doesn’t fit that. But if “high reward means #3 SP or better” then maybe. Not that I think he has a high likelihood of that, but it wouldn’t be shocking. His career FIP 4.07 (which is more than a little better than average), of course that is only in 180 MLB IP. HIs career tRA is also well above average. And the “Bill James” projection for him is a 3.93 FIP (that’s a pretty crappy projection system, but I’ll just throw that in there because we have little data to go on).
In short, this is a good minor league signing of a pitcher who could, perhaps, genuinely help the team. He’s the kind of guy I’d like to have in my organization for starting pitching depth, and maybe even as my #5 SP.
The immoderate moderator
That's exactly what it is and that's all that it is.
In short, this is a good minor league signing of a pitcher who could, perhaps, genuinely help the team. He’s the kind of guy I’d like to have in my organization for starting pitching depth, and maybe even as my #5 SP.
The upside for a signing such as this is that he will make some contribution onthe MLB level. It’s absolutely a good idea to grab guys like this when come along.
But thinking he has a 25%-50% chance of being a #3 starter ……
by Steve Nelson on Nov 21, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
I think he has a shot of being a #3-quality starter
I think that is the potential “high reward” of this signing. But I do think the chances are less than 25%.
The immoderate moderator
I don't know what the number is
But I will bet Campillo has a much greater chance of being a #3 starter than any other minor league FA.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 22, 2009 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
Help me get smarter
I ground this belief on several things. First that Campillo’s track record(injuries aside) don’t point to 2008 being a fluke. He may not have dominating stuff, but he does keep his walks down, has a good K/BB ratio, and perhaps most tellingly has almost perfectly average rate stats(GB%,FB%, HR/FB, HR/9, K/9 etc.) which would seem to indicate that he is infact a perfectly average pitcher.(average being the key word here…an average pitcher who can qualify in innings is still worth 2-3 Wins)
30 teams in baseball also know that, as well. They pay people specifically to follow that type of information.
None of those teams believe he has anywhere near a 25% to 50% chance of being a #3 starter. Because if any of them did believe that Campillo would not be a minor league free agent. Guys with a 25% to 50% chance of being a #3 starter sign MLB contracts.
So it’s clear that you are either seeing something in Campillo that 30 player personnel directors in MLB are not seeing or you think they are all seriously misjudging Campillo, because otherwise your answer makes no sense. My point is that I want to get smarter, and so I want to know what it is you are seeing in Campillo that they have overlooked.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 21, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
Umm...
30 teams in baseball didn’t believe Albert Pujols was worth a first-round draft pick. Or a second. Or a twelfth.
You’re making an argument which is logically deficient, because you’re arguing from the premise that scouting is precise when it is not.
This space for rent.
I don't think you can make this comparison.
Scouting and drafting 18-21 year olds is a little different than scouting and signing 25-28 years olds.
Better competition, bodies are filled out, and other things.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
True, but MLB organizations make mistakes
Sometimes all of them. Even on 25-28 year olds. It’s not comparing apples to apples, but morse’s point is valid.
The immoderate moderator
But mistakes are still made
Raul Ibanez, Russ Branyan and others have been passed over before.
If anything the only reason that there are not more names I could mention is simply because there is no where for these guys to go once they have the stigma of “not being good enough” How many AAA journeymen have gotten at best one shot at the show? most of them? and sure many arn’t good enough. Most probably couldn’t play every day. Yet there are undoubtably players right now that arn’t being considered for MLB rosters that could probably contribute more than what the team already has(Aviles and Kila spring to mind)
We don’t know how many mistakes teams make because we are never given a chance to find out if they were really mistakes.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
by RoyalPug on Nov 21, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Wish there was some sort of edit button...
and you also have to remember that clubs have a tendency to overestimate what they all ready have and the look for Diamonds in the rough, guys who are bad who the club can turn good.
Its sexy for a GM to say, hey look I turned this fat nogood Arubian into a MLB caliber pitcher.
Its not sexy for a GM to say, hey we found a average guy, who could contribute to our team.
Oh, and one more note…I said last year that the Royals should pick up Pavano, I said that he would likely be a MLB average pitcher, that his injuries wouldn’t affect him too much, that he could come in (fairly cheap) and give the Royals a good #4 guy behind grienke meche and Bannister.
I’m not saying I’m better than 30 MLB teams at looking at talent, But at the same time its not a leap of logic to look at a guy who in the past has pitched at a league average level, got hurt, is recovered, and say hey, hes probably gonna pitch at a similar level to what he used to.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
Everyone re-read this sentence.
We don’t know how many mistakes teams make because we are never given a chance to find out if they were really mistakes.
This is so undeniably true, yet fans and analysts and management far too often take a view which contradicts it.
Look, this discussion arises from an argument over whether a quirky guy with a non-standard skill set deserves a chance… yet all throughout this game we have “baseball people” who will insist all the way to their figurative execution-by-pink-slip that guys such as Tony Pena Jr. are actual major-league talent even after they’ve more than adequately proven otherwise.
When you argue that a guy doesn’t deserve a shot, you’re sometimes right. A third baseman who’s spent five years in the org and hasn’t managed to get past AA, and hasn’t managed to OPS over 700… well, yes. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that he doesn’t deserve a shot. But if a guy has shown any promise whatsoever, and that promise has been borne out by actual production, then it’s completely asinine to suggest that he doesn’t deserve a shot on the premise that if he deserved one… someone would have already given him one.
I mean… WHAT? What does one have to be smoking to make that assertion?
Matt Palmer went 11-2 with a 3.93 ERA for the Angels this season. Pretty good year, yeah? Well, he kicked around in the Giants minor league system for seven seasons before getting a cup of coffee in SF last year, then departed as a six-year MILB FA. He’s 30 years old. Granted, he spent his entire career in one organization before becoming a free agent, so it would be a reach to claim that 29 other teams thought he wasn’t any good, but one NL team apparently didn’t think a pitcher capable of above league average performance in the AL was worth keeping at all.
But that’s okay, because I have two chilling examples of guys all 30 teams passed on when they were 25 or older:
1) Cecil Fielder, who nobody wanted as a 25-year-old in 1989, so the Blue Jays sold him off to Hanshin. Detroit took a shot on him in 1990, and all he did was hit almost 300 homers afterward. (This example made even better by the fact that the Royals traded him for Leon Roberts, who wasn’t as bad as I remember — 108 career OPS+ — and who interestingly enough had the middle name of “Kauffman”, which is obviously why the Royals made the deal.)
2) Julio Franco, who nobody wanted in 1995. OR 1998. OR 2000. But after 2000, when he was about 90 years old, he STILL posted 4 seasons with a 100 or better OPS+.
Don’t anyone ever try and claim that if a player was any good, he wouldn’t be freely available because 29 other organizations can’t all be wrong. To be brutally frank, that’s just absolute horseshit. Once in a awhile, even with players who have MLB track records, all 30 (imagine me holding up three fingers!) organizations blow it.
This space for rent.
But Kyle Farnsworth
IS A PROVEN MAJOR-LEAGUER.
Just ask billybeingbilly.
This space for rent.
by jonfmorse on Nov 21, 2009 3:40 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
or every one of the 30 teams that wouldve gladly put him in their pen last year...
every single one of them
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 21, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
tell me which pen couldnt use a 3.1 FIP out of the pen?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 21, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
I thought you guys were discussing the hypothetical of last offseason and whether or net every MLB would have wanted Farnsy at that time, even for league minimum. I contend that at least a handful of MLB teams would have passed on him last offseason even if he went for $400K.
The immoderate moderator
Please.
See, here’s yet another fallacy which should be brutally apparent to anyone with any cognitive ability.
If every one of the 30 teams would have gladly put him in their pen last year, he wouldn’t have been available in the first place. Specifically, the Detroit Tigers did NOT want him in their pen, or they’d have kept him (after his stellar 66 ERA+ performance after he was traded straight-up for an old broken-down catcher who hasn’t put up a 90 OPS+ in three years, meaning the Yankees — who can afford to pay a stiff $5M a year — didn’t want his ass either).
This space for rent.
other teams just didnt want to guarantee him $10 million...
no team wouldve turned down the chance of farnsworth at 400k
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 22, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Horsepucky.
I can guarantee you that at least a few teams would have turned it down. All 30? Of course not. But your assertion that every team would have grabbed him at minimum is, to be blunt, idiotic.
This space for rent.
Don't disagree
It is good to see Dayton catching on that these guys are available for 400K though.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
Yeah - but that also indicates the depths of the malaise ...
… when fans make this much of a deal about signing a former MLB pitcher coming off an injury to a minor league FA deal.
And it’s not as if Baird didn’t do this type of thing, either. Staying with the “fomer Mariners” theme, Baird picked up Bobby Madritsch off the waiver wire.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 20, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
Totally agree.
I’m just thrilled this guy didn’t get 2 years for 4 million.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
I guess that makes him no
Horacio Ramirez
+1
Replacement level talent for replacement level money instead of multiple millions = progress
by swing and a miss on Nov 20, 2009 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
ahhaha
yeah true warden. Willie, Olivo, Yabuta, Jacobs, Farny, Crisp are taking Moore to the bank!
by GobbleforCyoung on Nov 21, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
its only 400k if he comes up to the big league roster
as a minor league deal it could be as low as like 50k for players with ML service. We paid something over that to get him to sign here so quickly, but we are probably talking about plus or minus 1/1000th of a Jose Guillen contract
nice monetary unit
We’re paying him $JG 0.001
by Steve Nelson on Nov 20, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
It could actually be a higher minor league deal
I think we’ve signed Ducky for $.5M on minor league deals for insurance the last 3 years.
I called this one a month ago
http://www.royalsreview.com/2009/10/16/1088299/royals-sign-reggie-taylor-and-its#
He’s a former Mariner. It’s his destiny.
The Sydney Ponson signing makes me slightly cautious about these type of signings, but if they’re used how they should be as depth/lottery tickets, it’s a solid move. Although, Campillo is younger, and better than Ponson.
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on Nov 20, 2009 2:10 PM EST reply actions
great write-up
i love/hate him already (Mariners AND Braves!?! … maybe we should make a list of all current players who fill both criteria and predict all future signings)
Blank
its going to get complicated
b/c now the M’s FO is competent, so we’ll be seeing fewer and fewer former-M’s that attract Dayton’s eye.
by Will McDonald on Nov 20, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
maybe that's a blessing in disguise
eventually, former Mariners will be good players (once they’re stocked enough that they start releasing good OBP/defense guys)
Blank
But there's still the opportunity for Dayton to sign Mariner free agents, after the Mariners decide they're no longer worth the FA price ...
… but not too expensive for the Royals. Wait for Dayton to announce the signing of Russ Branyan to a 3-year, $30 million contract to solidify the DH/1B situation and continue the “defensive” makeover of the infield. Meanwhile Kila Ka’aihue remains in AAA to until he masters the ability to depict mold growing on a block of cheese.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 20, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno
There were a lot of Mariners who played during the Bill Bavasi era and I’m guessing Z wants no part of most of them
praying Pete Orr doesn't get signed by the M's this off-season
by Will McDonald on Nov 20, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
LH batting utility player ...
I’m sure the Mariners have considered him.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 20, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
I saw on MLB Trade Rumors he may be Rule 5 draft eligable
Though I don’t know if anyone would take him
All veterans or minor league veterans not on the 40-man roster are Rule 5 Draft eligible
Obviously, the very young prospects are protected (i.e., prospects who signed less than 4 years ago at age 19 or older or 5 years ago at age 18 or younger).
See above
Veteran guys like Campillo who sign are not protected unless they are on the 40-man roster
Yeah
But you said any guy not on the 40 man is eligible, which is false. You just phrased it badly I think.
I thought the context was clear in a Campillo thread
especially since we just talked about the Rule 5 requirements not too long ago
incorrect
all comments must be throughly proof-read and edited for total clarity before posted. You should know better
by ZeppelinDZ on Nov 20, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
My apologies
I am a poor fanatic of the Kansas City (Missouri, United States of America) Royals of the American League of Major League Baseball.
by Gopherballs on Nov 20, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This guy was pretty good in 2008
Hey I’d rather see Campillo or Tejada in the rotation over Davies….at worst he’s a bullpen guy
by GobbleforCyoung on Nov 20, 2009 2:42 PM EST reply actions
can we really turn the page on davies just yet?
by Will McDonald on Nov 21, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
I'm afraid this is a question that will get asked every year until he's in another organization.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
Hey guys, Braves fan here…
just letting yall know campillo is no push over, if he’s healthy again he could easily step in yalls rotation and be a solid #3 or #4 guy
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
interesting
good to know… seems like many are high on this guy
there’s like 50 different ways the back end of the rotation could shake out it looks like
by Will McDonald on Nov 20, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Not in the AL
He is a fine 5th starter candidate or AAA insurance policy, but his K rate will fall and his BB rate will rise with the DH replacing the P. He is also a flyball pitcher, so his HR rate could get ugly very quickly. His change/slider combo give him weapons against left-handed and right-handed hitters respectively, but at some point he will have to throw his 85 MPH non-sinking fastball.
well i’ll tell you right now he’s better than kyle davies, behind greinke, he doesn’t have much to compete with…if he’s healthy he should fit in yalls rotation nicely..and i dont think jamie moyer is a good comparison…moyer’s fastball sits steadily around 83 mph, campillo sits around 85 or 86 and he can run it up to 89 or 90 if needed
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
When Moyer was Campillo's age that was the velocity of Moyer's FB.
Moyer, as would be expected, has lost velocity on his fastball as he’s aged.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 20, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Campillo is Brian Bannister minus 4 MPH and the groundballs
Again, Campillo is a nice addition to the back of rotation, but that is it. In 2008, Campillo got lucky with his HR/FB rate and BABIP (considering his LD% was 22%).
Davies belongs in the bullpen, so that is not saying much.
Banny w/ LESS velocity and LESS groundballs?
Thank goodness for his pedigree…
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2009 6:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
What does he throw?
I thought he was a groundball guy, but his groundball rates are pretty low. He doesn’t throw hard, doesn’t strike out that many. What’s his secret?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Think of right-handed, less effective Jamie Moyer ...
I suppose that means his upside is hypothetically Moyer-like. But that’s like saying that Betancourts’ upside is Luis Aparicio.
In all of the history of baseball there are at best a handful of pitchers who have succeeded like Moyer, and Moyer is the only one who’s done it on his aging curve (which at this point would be the same as Campillo’s). Conversely, there thousands, if not tens of thousands of guys, with similar stuff who don’t even get as far as Campillo. The fact that Campillo already made it to MLB puts him at the very top end of the upside range for pitchers with his stuff.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 20, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
i'm not a brad thompson fan.
i see thompson getting called up next season, promptly shelled, and released shortly after. however, i like campillo and lerew waiting as replacements should anyone go down.
Campillo is Mexican tough
Brad Thompson looks like he’d need help disposing of a spider.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I once picked up Jorge Campillo for my fantasy team
true story
*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"
by jackie ballgame on Nov 20, 2009 4:37 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Remember when
NYRoyal used to get (sorta) mad whenever anybody made a big deal about the ex-Brave, ex-Mariner angle?
Well, I think Moore has picked up SO many of these guys now, I don’t think anybody can think it’s just a coincidence anymore!
All that being said, this is a commendable pickup – and as others have pointed out, clearly illustrates why it was so stupid to sign some of the replacement level guys to major league deals in the past (I’m looking at you, Mark Redmon, and you, Sidney Ponson, and you, Scott Elarton, etc. etc. etc.)
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
he didn't get mad when people said moore picks up ex-braves
no one ever denied that he does. he (and i) just got annoyed when people used it as a criticism of moore. sure, he’s picked up a lot of ex-braves, but it hasn’t hurt the team overall, so it’s not a weakness.
What?
but it hasn’t hurt the team overall, so it’s not a weakness
You sure about that? What about the opportunity cost foregone in picking up players that don’t have the Braves or Mariners pedigree? And what’s so special about them? If the Braves cast them off, Dayton should trust their judgment, instead he needs to see for himself that these players aren’t that great because he knows them from his time there. To me it’s rather disconcerting that the guy running the team picks from a shallow pool of players while the rest of the league picks from the entire pool. So far this offseason, I think these signings are ok, but to say that this isn’t a weakness of Dayton’s is pure folly.
When you're talking about guys filling out the end of a roster ...
… or providing depth in AAA, it’s not an issue. There are lots of those guys around and one organization’s soft-tossing lefty is, for practical purposes, as good as any others. Certainly the differences aren’t worth the expenditure of resources to expand the pool. Plus when you have detailed knowledge of players in another system you actually have a bit of information inventory that you may as well exploit. In this case the opportunity cost is devoting resources to collecting information on fringe players that is better spent on generating information on players who will be more significant.
It does become an issue for higher levels on the roster. At that point, where scarcity starts to become an issue, biasing decision making toward the familiar does start to become an issue. Then you start to either reduce the talent pool you work with, or you start overvaluing the the players you are familiar just because you are more familiar with them.
To take a “hypothetical” situation, let’s say that you were a GM and you had a need for a third baseman. So to fill that need to you immediately think of a free agent infielder with whom you are familiar from the organization where you previously worked. And that process leads you to sign Scott Spiezio to be your 3rd baseman.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 20, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
I mean, it’s funny, but really, you don’t even have to “go there” to criticize him. I think we’re all pretty clear Moore is one of the worst GMs in the game and the sooner he’s fired, the better. The Braves/Mariners thing is a humorous icing on the cake to make it slightly more bearable.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 20, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
the braves thing at least was easy to understand
the mariner one… just bizarre, and yet, its so there
the former mariners are his marquee moves, we’re talking what… $100 million to former mariners?
by Will McDonald on Nov 21, 2009 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
Could we say it's "Bavasi-esque"?
I’ve often been struck by the similarities between Bavasi and Moore. Both of them have similar sets priorities and notions of value. It may extend to the Braves as well. In one sense, it may have made them east trading partners, because they speak the same “language”. Conversely, with the Mariners retooling, post-Bavasi, it may mean that some of the players departing the Mariners have qualities or traits that are more highly valued by Moore than by other organizations.
I have no detailed info on this; rather this is just trying to “connect the dots”.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 21, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh yeah
We’ve been over this ground, see my collection of thoughts in the aftermath of ‘the incident’, as nwroyal brilliantly dubbed it.
But really, the classic link between DM and BB is that a few years back, Moore tried to trade Billy Butler for YBJ, something that should have tipped us off to his awesome scouting skillz much sooner than it did. IT also asks a “unstoppable force vs. immovable object” sort of question: who was dumber in that situation — Moore for offering the trade or Bavasi for turning it down?
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 21, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
I never thought it was a coincidence
He’s using his knowledge of players in the Atlanta system to pick up players he likes. And, as I think the numbers have shown, this hasn’t hurt the team. But, he’s a poor GM and the entirety of his moves have hurt the team. There’s a lot to dislike about Moore as a GM. HIs affinity for former Braves is not one of them.
The immoderate moderator
Let me say this
I haven’t been big on any other signing that we’ve made so far, but this one makes sense. This guy can be very good. I’m on board with this one. Dayton isn’t even close to out of my doghouse, but this is a steal.
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Jeff Karstens would be another good minor league contract signing
He was recently DFA’d by the Pirates and if he ends up getting released, then he’d be worth a minor league deal. IN over 200 MLB IP’s, he’s been a league average pitcher (by tRA).
The immoderate moderator
I was thinking that too
Why not take some flyers on guys that could surprise? I say go for Karstens.
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by royaldaddy on Nov 22, 2009 1:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I was thinking the same thing
But isn’t he pretty much the same as Thompson and Campillo – 87 mph fastball guy that throw strikes? I don’t want to get overly redundant in one area. And I think we need to stock Omaha with a few young pitchers.
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by RoyalsRetro on Nov 22, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
True, but I'd value decent SP depth over variety of pitching styles
Both Campillo and Karstens are pretty good guys to have in AAA, ready to step in to make some starts if needed. I’d like to have that, even if they have similar pitching styles. And I think there is room in Omaha for them, along with some younger pitchers.
The immoderate moderator
yeah, especially when we aren't talking about prospects
I favor a total lack of variety among older pitchers: I want them all to be “good” and none of them to “suck”
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 23, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
There are lots of pitchers of this general ability levels who are available as minor league free agents every year.
And every team signs some of them to fill out the rotation at their AAA club and to provide some depth in case injuries or flameouts leave them shorthanded on the 40-man roster.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 25, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
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