The Lastest Guillen rumor...
Rumor has it that Gullen plus cash may be traded to the Mets for Angel Pagan. Looks like Angel is about a 1 WAR player to me. He looks to be slightly above average with his glove, slightly above average with his bat (in the NL). Was worth 2.8 WAR last year which was his best year.
8 months ago
BabyBlues
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Yeah, I must be missing something major about Pagan.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
The Mets organization is very traditional
They want a classic power hitting corner OFer and don’t recognize the value of defense at a traditionally offensive position.
The immoderate moderator
Can they possibly think Guillen fills this role?
They want a classic power hitting corner OFer
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
Its very conceivable to think that Guillen would have a slight numbers spike in the NL too...
Isn’t it?
This space for rent.
by averagegatsby on Nov 22, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps
Except that his only positive (and it is a very minor one) is pure power hitting and Citi Field is death to power hitters. So if he became a Met, it is possible that any NL bump would be nixed by his home field park factors. And then there is the continued decline with age…
The immoderate moderator
Maybe their Sheffield experience tells them it'll work out.
Not that Guillen was ever a Sheffields…
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
Yeah, I just don't get how this power hitter rep is still around.
Batting runs above average (from Fangraphs) the last 4 years:
-9.5
+16.1
- 5.1
- 6.9
Which one is the outlier?
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
uh-oh
let’s not get going on “outliers” and “breakouts…” that’s a fangraphs post for next week
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 23, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
He's certainly not a good hitter
But they think he’s a “power hitter.” The numbers you gave above are basically total hitting value stats. They see him as someone who hits for power when he makes contact. And that is what they want out of a corner OFer. That’s a very traditional, old school, outmoded way of thinking.
The immoderate moderator
If they're that outdated, I'll be shocked.
I just refuse to believe (dumb as it is being a Royals fan) that a front office is still that dumb.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
They're run by Dayton Moore's long-lost Dominican Twin
Didn’t they trade for Frenchy the exact same day KC traded for YBJ? It was real close, at least… just perfect, all the way around.
I still say DM and OM had (have?) some bizarre bet going on to see who can get fired first, or better, to see how badly they can do without getting fired (cf. Dayton’s extension).
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 23, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
This seems like a great Hollywood comedy waiting to be written
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
There are still some front offices dominated by traditional thinking
There’s still a lot of outmoded position profiles, and focus on HR, RBI, ERA, batting average, etc.
The immoderate moderator
Sadly, one of them is--
oh forget it
I hate fandom sometimes
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
You're forgetting the Royal's stats department!
“Stats department” meaning one scout-type who has a cubicle and a computer where he looks up and writes down the RBI, HR and batting average of players and then hands that piece of paper to Dayton.
The immoderate moderator
don't forget the important
HR/ab ratio
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on Nov 24, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
Sources say a deal isn't close
It appears the impediment is 1) that the Royals actually want a little value in return for Guillen, and 2) that Moore isn’t willing to kick in much money. That is stupid on top of stupid. If you want something of value for Guillen – like Pagan – then kick in as much money as it takes. Throw in $10M if that’s what it takes. What would you rather have, Guillen for $12M or Pagan for $10.4M? I think the answer is pretty clear. (and, I don’t think the Mets would require the Royals kicking in that much money)
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Nov 22, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
the other impediment:
and probably the biggest thing holding up a deal: the Mets are waiting to see what happens with Bay and Holliday. If they sign elsewhere, perhaps Omar will be that desperate/stupid.
the other, other impediment
Dayton is (probably) not very good at managing baseball players & baseball money.
Blank
Totally agree. Pay the entire 12M and take a chance on Pagan's production vs. Guillen's. It's still a good risk.
by Steve Hovley on Nov 22, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
If the Mets want Guillen then Dayton should try to get the most money out of them possible.
Dayton sees this as giving them our DH/RF and money for Pagan, so I’m guessing he wants a split on Guillen bare minimum of $6M.
If this trade happens, Omar Minaya officially becomes the dumbest GM in baseball, and Dayton Moore makes Pagan change his last name to Christian.
by AxDxMx on Nov 22, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I think Minaya has pretty much solidified that position already...
Hell, I would probably kick in a Jackson if that helped get the deal done at all.
This space for rent.
by averagegatsby on Nov 22, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
i dont think minaya is THAT bad...
at this point, dayton is in another league
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 22, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
nice...
Dayton Moore makes Pagan change his last name to Christian.
that would be awesome.
The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com
by CollininCalifornia on Nov 22, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
If true, then Dayton is simply content to lose ground
in the “obviously worst GM in baseball” contest he’s been having with Minaya the last year or two.
Seriously, the Royals should be willing to trade Guillen to any team willing to pick up even $1 of his salary and expect nothing in return. If Moore is hesitating at all, that’s grounds for his being fired immediately. As if there weren’t sufficient grounds already.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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I disagree
If he’s clueless to the fact that Guillen needs to be gone regardless of cost, that’s grounds for firing, but there’s nothing wrong with playing a little hardball as long as you don’t screw yourself over by losing the deal.
I don't know what he's really been offered
and we won’t know. I don’t mind if he tries to see what he can get. But if he turns down anything to get any of the money off the books, then that’s insane. that’s all I’m saying.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 22, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree.
A healthy Guillen may drive in 90 runs, something the Royals desperately need, especially if Olivo leaves. Not even Greinke can win when the Royals are shut out.
RBIs?
This equation is a rough estimate of the RBI potential of a player:
RBIs = Runners On x BA + HR.
Guillen last year had a .242 average, 40 RBIs, and 9 homers. Solving for Runners On he had roughly 128 last year, and delivered 31 of them. Turns out he actually had 124 runners on when he came to the plate.
What an excellent RBI man!!
2008 Guillen – 20 HR, 97 RBI, .264 BA. solving for Runners On = 292, actual = 303. So taking out his RBIs for driving himself in (homers), that means he delivered 77 of those 303!
Again, what an excellent RBI man!!
So here’s the big question:
How do you increase RBI production?
Well, let’s look at the equation. RBIz = Runners On x BA + HR, so there are 3 factors.
- Increase homers.
- Increase batting average
- Increase runners on
Considering Guillen is below his career average for batting average lately, that probably won’t happen. His homers are trending downward over the last 5 years, so probably can’t increase RBIs through that. How about getting more runners on in front of him? DING DING DING! The one thing out of his control is pretty much what will determine his RBI total. Stick Mark Teahen/DDJ/Callaspo/Olivo/Buck/Gordon in Guillen’s spot in the lineup and all of them would do the same or outproduce him given the same circumstances, let’s take a look at 2008 (Guillen’s “good” season):
Teahen: .255, 15 homers, with Guillen’s 303 runners on = 92 RBIz
DDJ: .307, 12 HR, Guillen’s 303 runners on = 105 RBIz
Callaspo: .305, 0 HR, Guillen’s 303 runners on = 92 RBIz
Olivo: .255, 12 HR = 89 RBIz
Buck: .224, 9 HR = 77 RBIz
Gordon: .260, 16 HR = 95 RBIz
Clearly, the overriding factor here is how many baserunners you have on. A close second is homers, and finally BA. DDJ had 210 baserunners on for him in 2008 and drove in 73 (my formula estimates 76 RBIs), but with Guillen’s baserunners, DDJ is an RBI All-Star!
Clearly the Royals do not “need” Guillen. What they need are people that can get on base. The RBIz will follow.
by AxDxMx on Nov 23, 2009 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
This should have been a fanpost.
Excellent work.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
Maybe you should hold off on that,
don’t want anyone from the Mets front office to read it.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
by Warden11 on Nov 23, 2009 9:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I've always thought Angel Pagan was one of the best names in baseball
“Hi, I’m Bob Oxymoron!”
by sterlingice on Nov 22, 2009 2:23 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Very nice
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 22, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
Angel Pagan was a fine player for...
…the Cubs about 3-5 years ago. He was a part-time OFer whose only barrier to becoming full-time was injuries. I was surprised when he was traded to the Mets. I haven’t followed him since, but I recall Pagan to be above average defensively and average with the bat. – TL
Rusty Kuntz?
I couldn’t help it. Where men feel profane. I’ll be there. When most people are too sensible to say what they’re thinking. I’ll be there. When others take the high ground, I’ll take the low ground and say the obviously vulgar thing too. I’ll be the way guys yell when they’re drunk. Saying things that are funny only when stoned. I’ll be there in the way kids laugh when they are hungry but they know suppers ready. Wherever Guillen is picking on a fat rookie, I’ll be there too. Whenver Dimitri Young is beating on a mascot, I’ll be there. And when the Royals finally build a contender, based on shrewd trades, a rebuilt farm system, solid drafs, and building a bullpen from MLB spare parts……..I’ll be there.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Nov 22, 2009 2:54 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
What if
Guillen was healthy in 2010.
Let’s say he played 150 games.
Would Guillen outproduce Pagan?
Pagan has more speed, which the Royals need.
[img]http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0eTH2sm73rf3u/610x.jpg[/img]
I would give Guillen virtually no chance of outproducing Pagan
even if healthy. (which won’t happen) Trey could DH for Pagan and he’d still be more valuable than Guillen.
Duffy*, Montgomery*, and Melville* for Willy Taveras and Paul Janish
*currency of baseball
by McClure 'stache on Nov 22, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
The more Guillen plays, the more he hurts the Royals
at best, he’s a bad defender — more likely, he’s dreadful. He can’t hit anymore, either.
Guillen’s extremely-unlikely best case scenario is about Angel Pagan’s most likely scenario.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 22, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
At this point of his career
JoGui is at his best when hurt. Does that mean he’s getting better?
Duffy*, Montgomery*, and Melville* for Willy Taveras and Paul Janish
*currency of baseball
by McClure 'stache on Nov 22, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
This rumor has to be a joke played by Adam Rubin
Text of the article doesn’t make it seem like the Mets have serious interest anyway.
The Royals, who are looking to deal outfielder Jose Guillen, identified the Mets as a potential trading partner, although there was no deal considered close, sources said.
Why you come back and talk to us when you have something substantive to tell us Adam Rubin, OK?
by James Kannengieser on Nov 22, 2009 5:02 PM EST reply actions
If it weren't for unsubstantiated rumors, sports writers wouldn't have much to write about most days
So they report any and every rumor they here, and undoubtedly make up some when convenient.
The immoderate moderator
LIES!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 22, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
The comments here have been very anti-Dayton Moore
considering the Mets don’t want to make a move until they see how a couple options play out and how little information regarding the trade discussions has been leaked.
Our comments in general are anti-Dayton Moore
Because his moves in general are anti-successful.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 22, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Funny, true.
Because his moves in general are anti-successful
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
If we can deal JoGui
Let’s get more in return. If he stays healthy, we can get Pagan and more at the deadline from a contender needing a RH “power” bat off the bench.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
If he stays healthy
He just plays more. Which shows up his complete inadequacy in the field and his very very mediocre bat (at best).
In order to get more for Guillen, he'd have to 1) stay healthy, AND 2) actually play pretty well next season
I think the odds of the first happening is 1-in-3. I think the odds of the second happening are 1-in-10. Therefore, by the laws of probably, the odds of BOTH happening are 1-in-30.
The immoderate moderator
Those events aren't mutually exclusive
In fact, they are dependent on each other as he can’t play well without being healthy or it probably won’t be considered “playing well”. So you are incorrect in saying 1 in 30, the odds are the “play pretty well next season” odds of 1 in 10, or 10%. You are also saying he has a 66.7% chance of being too injured to play well, and the other 23.33% of the time he is actually well enough to play, but he sucks it hard.
forgot to say
when events are mutually exclusive you multiply the probabilities, but dependent variables are a different story.
Example: Odds Billy Butler hits 30+ homers next season 1 in 8, or 12.5%. Probability that Billy hits 40+ doubles are 75%.
Probability he accomplishes both: 12.5% x 75% = 9.38%
You are forgetting the "Guillen factor" in your calculations
it is exponential, so the chances that he will stay healthy and actually play pretty well are vanishingly small (something like 1 X 10-30).
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
The Royals should feel lucky to get Pagan, even if they were paying Guillen's whole salary
1) there’s a 1 in 1000 chance Guillen actually plays like an above-average player worth his salary next season, at best. And even if he starts hot, no one is going to buy it. And that’s exluding the health concerns…
2) I remember last offseason, when some here were saying “we can’t trade Guillen now, we won’t get anything for him!!111” Um, news flash — Guillen wasn’t worth anything on the market last offseason. Not with that contract, for sure, not when better players were signing for $2M and stuff. A player can’t be considered apart for his contract. If Guillen was on the market now, he’d be lucky to get a major league contract for more than the minimum. He’s a $12M sinkhole. Stupid sign, stupid to not trade him for 50-cents on the dollar during 2008, for 10 cents on the dollar in last offseason, and to have him on the roster on Opening Day 2010. If the Mets are dumb enough to send Pagan straight up tot he Royals, even if the Royals eat half the contract, that’s basically Dayton bending over the Mets as bad or worse that Jack Z. bent HIM over on the Yuni deal.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 22, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
+1
Just having Pagan’s glove would be a huge upgrade. He can hit for crap for all I care so long as we can get rid of Guillen’s awful range and terrible attitude.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 22, 2009 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
leaving the attitude aside
Pagan for Guillen straight up would be a screw job, throw in the salary differential and I have a hard time believing there’s anything to this.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 22, 2009 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
Even if the Royals traded Guillen and threw in $10M
then cut Pagan the next day, they’d still probably have won the trade.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 22, 2009 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
trade-rape?
Anyone watch The League?
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
I have.
Forget trade-rape, it would be a trade-rape-and-pillage of an entire medieval village.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 23, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
I don't get that at all
and I’m laughing to myself
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 23, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
God I love that show
I too, want to someday be a full on rapist.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 24, 2009 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
Taco with the McGibbles costume was great.
Other than that, it’s a little hit and miss. But for tv right now, it’s definitely watchable.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
Yeah, Mr McGibblets was pretty funny.
And it is hit or miss, but I like that Catalina from My Name Is Earl found employment as one of the wives on the show.
It has its moments
They need to get rid of Taco. Nothing likeable about a guy that sleeps with any girl he wants, is completely oblivious to his surroudnings and knows nothing about football.
I also feel like they need to make connections to the league itself all the time, when I think the show would be funnier if they just dropped that pretense and made it a show about four guys that just happen to be in a fantasy league.
And when are we going to see the other guys in the league? A five man league is preposterous!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 24, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
They've referred to the "out-of-towners" in the league a few times...
But since there have been several scenes where they talk shit to each other by posting videos on the league message board, you’d think that would be a perfect opportunity to introduce us to some of the other league members.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 24, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
because it hasn't happened
means that DM has turned it down because he's a moron
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 23, 2009 8:24 AM EST reply actions
did you hear the rumor?
Longoria for Bannister. Man, if that trade doesn’t happen DM is a fucking idiot.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 23, 2009 8:27 AM EST up reply actions
In fairness
Greg Schaum has said on Scout that Dayton is unwilling to give up the cash with Guillen that Minaya wants. If that is true, he is retarded.
someone needs to school the guy on the concept of "sunk costs"
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Why should the Royals pay Guillen to play for the Mets?
Better yet, why should my ticket money be used to pay another team’s player when Guillen is the only Royal to drive in 97 runs since I have no idea when!
Because he costs us more runs than he gives us
And you are joking aren’t you? NO ONE still uses RBI as a measure of offensive talent anymore, unless they are joking.
OK, 20HR's!
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 23, 2009 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
Why should the Royals pay Guillen to play for the Royals?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 24, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Jose lost out to Vernon Wells for Poz's LVP(Least Valuable Player). I'm not sure he should have, except...
we only owe Jose 12M this year and they owe Vernon 100M~ over the next 5 yrs. Yuni was also in the running. We were the only team with 2 players in the running. What does that say about our GM?
Take it FWIW
But Greg Schaum says the Royals are discussing a deal for a player at a premium position (I assume catcher) who was once a hot prospect but fizzled in a short MLB trial.
JR Towles, Jarrod Saltalamaccia, and Taylor Teagarden have been speculated at Royals Corner.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Me too.
I like all those names, but would be surprised if Teagarden was the catcher. More likely JR Towles with Salty as a dark horse.
He also says
The Braves are making a big push for Carl Crawford and are going to try to sign Billy Wagner.
So there’s that.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 24, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
You know Moore would be all over Gordon-for-Salty
and the fanbase would probably be so happy to be rid of Gordon they wouldn’t even be mad when part of the deal is that the Royals take Michael Young and his salary
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know what I'll do if (when) Moore makes another big, stupid trade
He’s already gotten rid of two good prospects for a handful of rotten beans. If he trades someone like Gordon or Butler for a poor return, I’m really going to lose it.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Nov 24, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
it's almost better when he's blowing money in FA
instead of trading away the organizations small supply of young talent
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think next offseason is going to be the big one
After another losing season in 2010, he’ll be desperate for a winner. Guillen’s contract will be coming off the books and after little or no payroll increase in 2010, Glass will probably be willing to increase payroll. I think that offseason will see some significant contract signings for the Royals possibly with a big trade or two as well. It will likely be catastrophantastic.
The immoderate moderator
+1
I see Dayton doing a lot of trades, but no big FA signings this winter. But he’s probably banking on 2011 being the year his draft picks start making contributions, and he’ll have lots of money to play with if they keep payroll levels near where they are now. So it could be a failure of epic proportions!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'm sick of your negativity
Moustakas is totally going to have .320+ OBP in AA in 2010, and coupled with Hosmer’s incredible advances in “being able to see,” we’ll all be eating our snark in 2011.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
If I can put gravy on it, I'm ok with eating some snark
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I've said this before
I know that GMing is hard, but it isn’t THIS hard. No, there’s no way in hell I could do better, but the very fact that I even have to say that says it all about Moore.
Seriously, KC faces a lot of challenges, but the moves are just… mindblowing. Kenny Williams and J. P. Ricciardi aren’t my favorite executives, but there’s no way in heck I should be ENVYING teams employing them.
And yet that’s were we’re at.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
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