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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Which reminds me of one more quick random baseball thought: I think the Kansas City Royals should do what they can to trade for Curtis Granderson — if Granderson is really available. I do not only say this because I like Granderson (Facebook friend!). I say this because I think Granderson would be worth more to Kansas City than he would be worth anywhere else. We all know Granderson is a good baseball player with a couple of apparent flaws, the biggest being that he cannot hit left-handed pitching. He’s also coming off a trying year, and he turns 29, and he has fallen off each of the last two seasons. Also he strikes out a lot.

So why would he be more valuable in KC than other places? Because: Those flaws don’t matter in Kansas City. Not at all. The Royals have no center fielder and none on the horizon. They are in desperate and critical need of all the good things Granderson provides. Granderson is a good defensive center fielder, an effective base stealer, a typically good base runner, a guy who crushes righties, a class act, and he’s one of the most respected players in the game. Who cares about strikeouts? Other teams might like having Curtis Granderson, but Kansas City would build around him. The Royals are not about anything right now except for their amazing ability to lose even with Zack Greinke. They could be about Curtis Granderson. That would be a huge improvement.

about 2 years ago Royalsretro_tiny RoyalsRetro 29 comments 1 recs  | 

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I'd love to have Granderson, too

I just cringe to think what Dayton would end up sending over there to get him.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 24, 2009 10:53 AM EST reply actions  

What would it take?

Moose/Duffy/Rosa? Would you pull the trigger on that? Is that even enough?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 24, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

That seems like too much

Maybe just Duffy/Rosa, but not moose too.
The biggest problem being team control, How long is Granderson under team control? and at what cost?

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Nov 24, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Pretty good deal IMO

10:$5.5M, 11:$8.25M, 12:$10M, 13:$13M club option ($2M buyout)

I think Bianchi/Duffy/Rosa would be a fair deal. I’m not sure I’m willing to sacrifice the future for a player like Granderson though. Not sure we’ll even be good by 2012.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 24, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah this is the kind of move that the Royals should consider

in 2012 (for a Granderson-equivalent player), assuming (hopefully) that they have replenished the system adequately with decent prospects. Sadly, trading for Granderson now, even with a reasonable contract like that, just wouldn’t make as much sense as hanging on to all those guys.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 24, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

That would be a win-now move

Or at least a win-in-the-next-few-years move. And I think a few good prospects are more likely to help the Royals contend eventually than Granderson would be within the next few years.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Nov 24, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

But the Royals should look at Sizemore first!!!1111

No duh, Poz. The Tigers are NOT going to move Granderson unles they get a serious haul that the Royals shouldn’t give up.

As an aside, the whole WAR conception also shows you just how valuable a guy can be despite his platoon issues.

I love Granderson, but did anyone notice that he was just slightly more valuable than DDJ this season? He’s definitely better than DDJ going forward, but let’s not go nuts. He’ll be 29 to start next season. That’s not super-young, either. He’s a 3.5 WAR player, probably. That’s good, but that’s not a franchise cornerstone.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 11:21 AM EST reply actions  

not a cornerstone at 29, anyway

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

The only way it might make sense

Is to trade a player (or players) who won’t be a part of the Royals possibly contending future (2013 or later). Trading someone like Meche (plus) for him makes sense. Trading multiple top prospects for him is short-sighted, and imo, stupid.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Nov 24, 2009 11:21 AM EST reply actions  

What about Meche and Callaspo

for Granderson and a throw in?

I like Callaspo, but wonder if he has a spot on this team.

by AxDxMx on Nov 24, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

No dice

The whole point of the Tigers moving Granderson is to dump salary. They won’t take on Meche.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 24, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

that's why I don't believe it for the Tigers

Granderson is one of their few remaining surplus contracts. Miguel Cabrera, ont he other h and… well, check FanGraphs around 5pm EST today.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Mech+Callaspo for Granderson

In my estimation, that would mean the Royals would be giving up 4.5-6.5 WAR and getting 3.5-4 WAR in return. That doesn’t work for me.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Nov 24, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

salary differential

Just for next year, the Royals would be giving up about ~5 WAR for a bit over $12M in salary, and would be geting about 3.5 WAR at $5.5. That’s pretty even, without even considering the future.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, that works for one year

But as Granderson’s salary increases each year, the script flips.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Nov 24, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

And as Meche continues to decline

Callaspo’s value won’t decline as much, but I also think he’s peaked. It’s even, and Granderson will also have additional trade value in the last two years of his deal.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Is it even?

2010
Granderson 3.7 WAR 5.5 M
Meche 3.5 WAR $12M
Callaspo 2.5 WAR $.42M

2011
Granderson 3.7 WAR $8.25M
Meche 3.0 WAR $12M
Callaspo 2.5 WAR $2M (arb)

2012
Granderson 3.7 WAR $10M
Callaspo 2.5 WAR $5M

So this is what each team would get in terms of WAR and cost by year if this trade went down

2010
Royals 3.7 WAR, $5.5M
Tigers 6.0 WAR, $12.4M

2011
Royals 3.7 WAR, $8.25M
Tigers 5.5 WAR, $14M

2012
Royals 3.7 WAR, $10M
Tigers 2.5 WAR, $5M

Now, if 1 WAR = approx. $4.5M, then I don’t see how this trade works out in the Royals favor. In 2010, the Royals lose a net of 2.3 WAR, which would cost them about $10.35M to acquire. But their cash savings would only be $6.9M. In 2011, the Royals lose 1.8 WAR which would cost them $8.1M to acquire, but their cash savings would only be $5.75M. In 2012, the deficit is 1.2 WAR, which costs $5.4M but the cash savings is only $5M.

Over three years, the Royals would lose 5.3 WAR, which would cost $23.85 M to replace, but would only save $17.65M. So I don’t think the cash savings come close to making up for the lost WAR.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Nov 24, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

well, maybe

I don’t think it’s clear-cut. I will say that we probably differ on the value of Meche and Callaspo going forward.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

True

The WAR numbers are, of course, highly speculative.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Nov 24, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

DDJ plus another pitcher?

Total mancrush on Granderson.

I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

by Warden11 on Nov 24, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

That would, of course, depend on the pitcher

Granderson is a 3.5-4 WAR player, and he’s already passed peak age. DDJ is a 2.5-3 WAR player. So Granderson is an upgrade, but not a huge one. The pitcher would have to be a pretty minor one for that deal to work out for the Royals (and not a top prospect).

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Nov 24, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed.

I just love Granderson…got a kid in high school that’s a very similar build I’ve been trying to talk into playing baseball. He tells me “coach, I’m black. We don’t play baseball” He says it as a joke, but everytime he does I bring up Curtis Granderson. Having him at the K would help my team, too!

I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

by Warden11 on Nov 24, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

He's probably my favorite non-Royals player

Other than maybe ex-Royals like Carlos Beltran and Rauuuuul Ibanez.

I read somewhere Granderson is in talks to do a show where he investigates ballparks and the history behind them.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 24, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, Granderson's right up there for me, too

I always planned to do an “All d_f favorite non-Royals All-Stars” post, but never got around to it

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions  

lets make moves based on being "about" something and getting good character guys

my question is, how will this alter are also super important desire to establish a “team identity” and “change the culture”

by Freneau on Nov 24, 2009 12:35 PM EST reply actions  

Best way to do that from JoPo's perspective

trade for Granderson, dump Gordon and bring back Teahen, extend Banny for 5/60, and bring up Disco and make him the everyday setup man ASAP

/snark

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 24, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Clean Out The

Petri dish?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 24, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

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