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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

...for either cash or a PTBNL.

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he's filler in Boston

but it says something if THEY think he’s good enough to be organizational filler.

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Nov 25, 2009 5:59 PM EST reply actions  

Been back and forth with Schaum on Twitter about this

not that I’m a huge believer in Tug, but CHONE has him as a league average hitter, and has Getz at -7. Getz is also a below-average 2B, and Tug is probably equal to that at worst. Tug is one year older. ZiPS has them as basically identical hitters.

I don’t mind picking up Getz, but why go after him and t hen let Tug go? Heck, why St. Willie, Wilson Betemit, etc. and let Tug go? He’s probabl bench filler, but…

whatever… insert rant from any other DMGM transaction from the last couple of years.

Some say we should trust the Royals baseball people on this, but I think I speak for many when I say that they’ve earned exactly zero trust

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 25, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions  

I saw someone on scout said exactly that to Schaum

That he deserves a chance. He was of the opinion that “baseball people” have decided he isn’t worth one. So that’s ok then.

by kcbottom9th on Nov 25, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I was emailing with Dave Cameron

he said that Tug’s defense sucks, so that explains a fait bit of it, although it doesn’t make him much worse than Getz given Getz’s bat

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 25, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Right

I don’t think anyone expects him to be a superstar or anything like it. But his bat looks as though he could be capable of being a productive bench player , if nothing else. And quite possibly more than that.

When we are giving up money/talent for the like of Bloomquist/Betancourt/Getz it is frustrating to watch a better in house candidate thrown away. Not forgetting also that Tug was cut, but Luis Hernandez and Mario Lisson were apparently good enough for a spot on the 40 man roster.

by kcbottom9th on Nov 25, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, it is yet another bit of tools-based evaluation by the Royals front office

They like Getz’s skills (hitting, running, and/or defense). And they don’t like Tug’s so much. Of course there’s no reason to believe that the Royals scouts can be trusted to correctly identify any position player’s level of talent.

That being said, tug certainly looked like a utility IFer to me. Getz has some promise to be more than that. Some.

Of course one of the many problems that the Royals front office has had is that they work hard to acquire players at positions where the team is set, or at least has a decent MLB-ready prospect.

CF – The Royals had DeJesus, so they trade for Crisp
1B/DH – The Royals had Butler and Kila, so they trade for Jacobs
SS – The Royals had Aviles, so they trade for Betancourt
2B – The Royals had Callaspo, so they trade for Getz.

All this while genuine areas of need are ignored.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Nov 25, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Um?

Aviles may never return and Callaspo is arguably the worst defensive 2B in the MLB so I’m not sure how those two are a surprise.

DeJesus looks good in LF, but Crisp was wasted money since he got hurt, no doubt .

I have no excuse for Jacobs.

by AlanSimpson on Nov 27, 2009 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Callaspo's not that bad.

I think he’s merely below average. A little more range and he’d be average. Getz is not that big of an upgrade defensively according to UZR and the Fan Scouting Report, IIRC.

by AxDxMx on Nov 27, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it's fair to say that Callaspo is really bad

I’m not sure if he’s the worst in the majors, but it’s not out of play. The FSR and stats both dislike him. True, we don’t have a huge sample of the stats, but the observers aren’t thrilled with him either. Guys can turn things around, but, well, you know.

Having said that, although we have even less data, Getz was a below average at 2B on the FSR and even moreso with the stats. Lots of uncertainty, but I’d be surprised if he ended up being above average. Callaspo’s hitting probably makes up the difference, at the very least.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 28, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

He may be really bad, I guess I think he's a lot closer to average though

On the fielding portion of WAR at Fangraphs he ranks ahead of Skip Schumaker, Luis Castillo, Adam Kennedy, Dan Uggla, and Brian Roberts for 2nd basemen (15th out of 21 listed). He ranks ahead of those same players for UZR as well (except for Kennedy who wasn’t qualified at 2nd), which puts him 15th out of 20 players listed. In order for him to have been in the middle of the list, he would have needed to improve to around -1.7 (Kaz Matsui). An improvement of about 5 runs over the course of the season (not likely), however, just a 1.6 run improvement jumps him 2 spots on the list to 13th out of 21. He boots some really easy plays, and I guess I think that will be easy to clean up as he improves (hopefully). His range will be tougher to extend, but Billy Butler has shown that it can be increased. Hopefully Alberto is working hard on it this offseason. Also, in 205 career games at 2nd he is -3.9, so maybe he just had a bad year. That’s a UZR/150 of -2.9. That’s still a small sample size, so I guess we’ll know more after next year, assuming he gets the job over Getz.

I also think the Fan Scouting Report may be a bit redundant, as most people that vote in it, aren’t necessarily voting without regard to what they know about certain players according to UZR. That puts a bias into the data, when really, you’d want it to be completely separate of that knowledge in order to see if it correlates with UZR.

Anyways, a quick thought. How good would an infield be, if you had 2 shortstops manning the middle? Something along the lines of 2 of these 4: Ryan Theriot, Erick Aybar, Rafael Furcal, or Elvis Andrus. Greinke would have an ERA under 2 for sure (with 3 no hitters and 2 perfect games, assuming no Guillen in RF), and Hochevar might actually be able to get it under 4.50. Hell, I’d settle for Mike Aviles and Jeff Bianchi out there!

by AxDxMx on Nov 28, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Two shortstops would be great

of course, dependson who they were. Andrus at SS and, say, Marco Scutaro at 2B would be sweet. Luke Hochevar would be pleased.

I dunno about Callaspo. I’d like to think he’s better than he showed this season, but my hopes aren’t high. Caveats about one-year samples of UZR aside, having a UZR/150 higher than Skip Schumaker (LF turned 2B just this season), Dan Uggla (bad defensive rep, good candidate to move to 1B), and Luis Castillo (ditto on the rep — age and injuries) isn’t that impressive, especially given Callaspo’s young age. Roberts, well, it’s an especially bad year for him, although he’s probably in decline anyway. And that’s one example…

Anyway, I should say that given the Royals current roster, Callaspo is still the best overall candidate to start everyday at 2B. I don’t think Getz he better overall to justify starting in his place. Callaspo has more trade value if he’s viewed as a 2B. GIven the right situation (DDJ trade, appropriate arm), Callaspo might be just as valuable in the corner OF (if he has the arm for 3B, he has the arm for RF; that’s a big if).

What’s sad is that Callaspo’s defensive suckitude pales in comparison to Yuni’s state. A Getz/Bert middle infield would probably be better defensively (and almost certainly no worse) than Yuni and either one of them. That’s depressing as heck.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 28, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, it is depressing.

Callaspo in RF could not be worse than Guillen out there. I have a feeling Guillen will either play RF or be released/traded though. He’s already putting up a stink about it. There was a story on Royals.com.

And the original impetus for my response was the assertion that AlanSimpson made, saying thatCallaspo was the worst in the league, when he most definitely was not. I know I have a better view of him than most people, but worst regular in the league is not the case, that belonged to Luis Castillo and Dan Uggla, and in the AL, Brian Roberts. I guess I’d be happy with him being slightly below average, but his 2009 numbers were pretty solidly below average I suppose (Grade D+?).

Finally, the fielding difference between Chase Utley and Callaspo is 17.4 runs. So that’s 1.74 wins difference with fielding. I guess that’s a lot for one spot on the field, but there were only 8 guys in the whole league that were a full win better than him at fielding.

by AxDxMx on Nov 28, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I Anxiously Await

The “End Of The Tug Hulett Era” post.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 25, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions  

This isn't that bid of a deal.

Hulett is, for all practical purposes, interchangeable with probably about 50 others guys floating between AAA and MLB. This only has significance if the Royals put on the 40-man roster a guy who is totally unqualified.

Otherwise, this is like going to the grocery and agonizing over whether you should buy Wonder bread or Holsum. It doesn’t make a frickin’ bit of difference.

Oh – for the day when Royals fans will have more rewarding matters to ponder than the marginal utility of the last slot on the 40-man roster.

by Steve Nelson on Nov 25, 2009 10:28 PM EST reply actions  

This only has significance if the Royals put on the 40-man roster a guy who is totally unqualified.

I count 6 as of now

Tangled up in Plaid

by McClure 'stache on Nov 26, 2009 3:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Only 6?

I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

by Warden11 on Nov 26, 2009 9:24 AM EST up reply actions  

My take

U can’t be a true utility player if you can’t play defense…or maybe I am too old school here…

my point about baseball people is not just a statement about the royals…but all of the teams that have given up n him. This is his 4th pro team…and not to mention all the teams that have passed on him

i understand he has put up solid minor league numbers…..but, at some point u have to pay some attention to the scouts

i am of the belief that the best baseball gm’s combine stats and scouting and make decisions based on both…to go strong one way over the other is a mistake

Show me all the players in the minors like Tug and I will show you 100 to 1 of guys like him that were not succesful at the ML level….

listen. everyone deserves a chance but u have to pay attention to the fact that several teams have now given up on him…and Boston is not counting on him to be anything other than the 2B at Pawtucket

He will be a very good coach, even mgr some day…I know that is something he wants to do….great guy….when Trey’s son was here and Tug was up he was the one guy that went out of his way to work with TJ …

as i told devil the difference between he and Getz is that 2 organizations have both deemed one to be a starting 2B and he has also put up #’s at the ML level….Hulett (and i know some will say he just needs a chance) has not

"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."

by gashousegang on Nov 25, 2009 11:20 PM EST reply actions  

I'm Amazed At

The number of posts in that thread. Only on RR.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 26, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't totally disagree with you

You’re right, defense should be a priority for utility infielders. However, I do also value guys on the bench that can help with the stick. But its a debateable point.

There are a lot of guys like Tug in the minors floating around – this is true. I just don’t get why we don’t have any of them, and instead keep guys like Luis Hernandez and John Bale.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 30, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

don't forget Yuni

and Josh Anderson

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 30, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

and Willie B.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 30, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions  

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