Risky Royals: KC Signs Erik Bedard

Interesting...

I would have like to see a similarly cheap 2nd year at a club option tacked on to make it potentially worth our while when this team might be good.

I’d think that $3 M could have been better served finding us some offensive pop, but there is no doubt that a LH starter that has the potential to make a 1-2-3 of Zack, Meche & Bedard really, really good worth a risk…

What is his health situation? Someone posted last week that he wasn’t supposed to be healthy until after the AS break? Does that mean not pitching until then, or not 100% until then? If it is the former, then this deal looks a lot worse…if he is “expected” not to be 100% until then, but on the bump every 5th day, I’ll ive w/ it.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Nov 27, 2009 9:59 AM EST reply actions

That's 1.2 million less than

we’re paying Kyle Farnsworth.

Either GMDM has learned from his mistakes, or last off-season’s GM was Bizarro Dayton.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Nov 27, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions

Nothing about this in the Star this morning

I agree, depending on his injury situation, this could be good or another head scratcher.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Nov 27, 2009 10:39 AM EST reply actions

This should not be taken seriously

This rumor made it through chiefsplanet about 2 days ago, and at that time, it was determined to be baseless. The comments section did have a comment from the author basically saying he got the info reading kingsofkauffman, but I do not see that comment on the site anymore. Of course, no such rumor was as the latter site.

We know they have some interest, but the idea that he is signed is completely baseless right now. It may have happened, but how the hell did this guy scoop the regular media by 2+ days?

by bas on Nov 27, 2009 11:06 AM EST reply actions

By understanding the process

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Nov 27, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

It is on ESPN insider now, but who knows, not official.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 27, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions

and the Bleacher Report article has now been deleted from the website

by Steve Nelson on Nov 27, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

At the same time, by default any story linking a former Mariner or Brave to the Royals is more than "baseless rumor".

by Steve Nelson on Nov 27, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

“Royals sign Hank Aaron and Harold Reynolds” isn’t even beyond the pale.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Nov 27, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Reynolds might have lost a step...

but his baserunning and defense can’t be too bad. And the Royals sure could use another middle infielder.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 27, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

he'd probably play the best defense

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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 27, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

he'd also provide more offense than Betancourt ...

… and net more bases as a baserunner.

by Steve Nelson on Nov 28, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions

Can you say "Josh Wilson"?

Former Mariner, now a free agent coming soon to a franchise near you.

by Steve Nelson on Nov 27, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, the Royals defense could use a 10th man on the field.

by AxDxMx on Nov 27, 2009 8:58 PM EST up reply actions

This would be great if it were true

Here is a solid #2 starter for under $5 mil. If true, I have to give Dayton some props on this one.

Yes, I'm still alive. Sorry to disappoint you.

by royaldaddy on Nov 27, 2009 12:40 PM EST reply actions

Agreed

It is risky, but worth it if reasonably cheap. We need LHP bad, so anything we can get with real upside is a bonus.

The Royals bats cannot be expected to really produce much more next year. Running the bases better, playing better defense, and improving the bullpen seem to be the hopes for improvement. GMDM has shown this to be a real emphasis during the offseason with pretty solid activity, though without any major signings. Adding a solid mid-rotation starter for cheap would be one of the best improvements the team could make.

by bas on Nov 27, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

this can't be true

Dayton is a moron

"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 27, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

Give a monkey a typewriter...

by kcbottom9th on Nov 27, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Bedard Does Come

Somewhere between aardvark and zwieback.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 27, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

This fan page

is riddled with optimism.

[img]http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0eTH2sm73rf3u/610x.jpg[/img]

by Peterman700 on Nov 27, 2009 3:59 PM EST reply actions

If this is a true thing

why not be optimistic? This would be a major haul for the Royals and we should be looking for every positive we can get.

Yes, I'm still alive. Sorry to disappoint you.

by royaldaddy on Nov 28, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions

Is it a major haul to get a player who might not even play half a season?

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Nov 28, 2009 9:10 AM EST up reply actions

would be a very reasonable short-term signing

with significant upside. even in 2008 he would have been worth more than $3.2 million. his upside is a 5 win player, so getting a possible $25 million in value for a $3.2 million investment is pretty decent.

players like bedard are cheap because of the injury risk, otherwise he’d cost a lot more.

where is the negative to this deal, should it happen? using any advanced metric you want, bedard for $3.2 million is very good value.

"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 28, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

He had 1.9 WAR in 2009 with 83 IP

and 1.1 WAR in 2008 with 81 IP. So if this were true, I don’t think it’s a terrible risk for the Royals. In all likelihood he plays at least part of the season and puts up between 1.1 and 1.9 WAR. Even the low end would justify this contract. If he happens to play more than half the season, the Royals would make out like bandits with production and possibly trading him to a contender. A team like the Royals should be attractive to him, as long as he receives assurances that he will be traded to a playoff contender if the Royals aren’t in contention (ha!).

by AxDxMx on Nov 28, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

But that really only works if he's healthy enough to show he's worth trading for

before the deadline.

This is a case where he might be “worth” the money in the straight up sense, but it’s really just treading water for the Royals in particular because he’s not going to be around for their future.

Not that it would necessarily make it a terrible move, but it wouldn’t be a coup. He would need to be healthy and kicking ass pretty early in the season.

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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 28, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I guess I'm not aware of his complete situation

I assumed he’d be healthy to start the year, but if that’s not the case, it would be tough to trade him.

by AxDxMx on Nov 28, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

He had shoulder surgery ...

… IIRC it was on his labrum and he isn’t scheduled to make his first tosses until February.

Rather than sign with a team with a promise to trade him to a contender, why wouldn’t he just sign with a team such as Boston or the Angels?

The only reason for him to sign with the Royals is if the Royals pay him more money than other teams. Which means that the Royals will need to be willing to take on more risk than other teams.

And that’s not only risk in absolute dollars, but risk relative to payroll. It’s easy for a team such as Boston or New York to sign him to a $3 million contract and let him rehab until he’s ready to go in July – and just eat the $3 million if it doesn’t work out.

by Steve Nelson on Nov 28, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

You are forgetting the the Royals have to have a lefty starter no matter what!

I am not sure why that is the case.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 28, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

Moyer got squeezed out of the rotation in Philadelphia ...

… I bet he would be available via trade. Lefty – check. Former Mariner check. Impeccable character – check. What more could DMGM desire??

by Steve Nelson on Nov 28, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

Someone who isn't in the hospital maybe?

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlesports/archives/186564.asp?from=blog_last3

by AxDxMx on Nov 28, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

Signing with a team sure to fail and assurances to trade mean that he can go to any contender

That’s surely better than signing with 1 team you hope can make the playoffs. Either way, you’ve got a decent shot at the playoffs, but would you rather see half the season before deciding on a team, or just pick one at the beginning? THe more knowledge the better. That being said, maybe he just won’t sign with a team until mid-season.

by AxDxMx on Nov 28, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

So why not just sign with a team that looks like a contender ...

and obtain the same assurances of a trade should that team fall out of contention???

If that thinking were truly driving his decision-making, doing what I suggest gives him his first choice of likely contender to play for. He can pick from among likely contenders based on whatever factors he finds most desirable, whether that be size and length of contract, team medical staff, overall level of comfort with the club and the locale, proximity and ease of travel to his home, training camp location ….. And if that team falls out of contention he’s in exactly the same situation he would have been in had he signed with a near-certain non-contender such as KC.

In the end if he signs with KC it will likely be because they make him the best financial offer and he feels comfortable with the team’s medical approach. And if I were Bedard or his agent, the Royals management of Meche last season would give me pause to consider whether KC would be the best situation for a rehabbing pitcher.

by Steve Nelson on Nov 28, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with the last part of your statement, and honestly don't think he will consider KC for those very reasons

But I don’t think a team that was expected to contend, that’s not far out of it, would ship off Bedard to a contender and give themselves zero chance of coming back. I just see that as unlikely. If he signs with a team in the AL East, he’s burned 2-3 teams for trades as the Red Sox surely wouldn’t trade him to someone in division like the Yankees. Sure, if his team completely bombs, they’ll be forced to trade him, especially on a 1 year contract, but how many expected playoff teams completely crap the bed, maybe 1-2 a season at most?

Sure, if the Yankees want him, who wouldn’t sign with them right now? Greinke may be the only person in baseball that might turn that down. Even the Yankees aren’t a sure thing, but they have the highest likelihood I would think. But there’s 3-4 possible playoff teams in the East (NYY, BOS, TOR, TB), 3 in the Central (CHI, DET, MIN), 3 in the West (SEA, LAA, TEX) and even more in the NL. A few tweaks here and there, add a little luck, and all these teams are capable of contending. I just think the choice is easier if he could make it at midseason.

I’ll put it this way, if you were going to bet on a football game and offered the same odds at the start of the game as you are at halftime, regardless of the score, you’d choose to bet at hafltime right?

by AxDxMx on Nov 28, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

Just for the record

I don’t know anything about his prognosis or anything. Just giving my impression. I’d go with Steve Nelson on that score.

Bedard’s a good pitcher when he pitches (duh), and someone should (and will) try to sign him. For the right price, I think he makes sense for even the Royals, I just don’t think he really fits into the Royals’ current situation.

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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 28, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

You're right, he really doesn't unless he can be flipped for prospects

Otherwise, we’re just taking development time away from Davies, or Hochevar, or Bannister, or Tejeda, or Lerew?? (I’m not being sarcastic here.)

BUT (that’s a big but) if Bedard could improve the team to .500 when he pitches, plus Meche at .500, and Greinke running at around .650, the Royals could be roughly a .500 team with a step forward from anyone named above. The hitting doesn’t have to get a ton better if the starters and pen improve, and with Bedard on board, that allows 3 of those 5 to go to the pen or AAA, and if they went to the pen, that’s a huge improvement over what we had last year.

by AxDxMx on Nov 28, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions