Possible Responses to the Erik Bedard Rumors
This week's hottest Royals-related rumor remains the rumbling that Dayton Moore is close to signing Erik Bedard to a short-term deal. For whatever reason, a one year, ~$3 million dollar deal has been bandied about.
So how should we feel about this? Honestly, I'm not sure. Possible responses, from most positive to least positive are below.
- Joyous Response: Tooooooools! Once a player displays a tool, he owns that tool. Bedard is a legitimate ace! Earn Bedard's respect with a short-term deal, then begin selling him on KC once the season begins. He'll love pitching with Greinke! Bedard gives the Royals the best 1-2-3 in the American League.
- Happy Response: As long as the money is reasonable, this is great news. Sure, it might not work out, but there's a possibility that Bedard could be healthy and be awesome, equaling a win for the Royals. This is precisely what a small-market team like the Royals should be doing.
- Mildly Measured Response: The odds that Bedard is part of the next contending Royals team are minuscule. Still, as long as the money's right, who cares? Maybe he's able to pitch, and the Royals actually start strong and sustain it. It's the AL [blanking] Central.
- Mostly Measured Response: At worst, he's a gamble that doesn't pay off. Honestly, I don't expect him to. However, he might start strong and then he's the trade chip of the hour at the '10 Trade Deadline.
- Softly Sour Response: Bedard can help lead us to 79 wins. Ironic "huzza". Trade bait? Dayton Moore doesn't make in-season trades. Another ex-Mariner to boot. This is simply a move the Royals don't need to make. I'd rather see that money thrown back into the signing bonus pool.
- Stridently Sour Response: So for weeks the Royals have said they need to shed payroll, that they need to get young, that they need us to trust the process. Instead, it looks like that once again, Dayton can't contain himself. Once again, we're buying a player's past performance. Eight Bedard starts (along with 400 status-update stories) with the Royals is a waste of everyone's time. It's better to use those starts to see what the Royals have with the Bannister-Hochevar-Tejeda-Davies gaggle. It's complicated enough, and we don't need to throw another body into the mix. Let's see what the money ends up being. The years too. Dayton's been absolutely brutal on the FA market. Be afraid of this rumor, because it signals another silly season from Dayton Moore.
Me? I'm in the middle. It's hard to talk about a deal like this, when 90% of the discussion is centered around the money and years involved. Remember, for years we've been told the Royals have to overspend to get players here. Plus, this is Dayton Moore, should we really expect a bargain contract?
Still, Bedard's been around more than I thought. I imagined that he'd made like 17 starts total as a Mariner, but he made 30 total in two years. I'm not super jazzed about the possibility here, but I guess let's see what the future holds.
4 recs |
35 comments
Comments
the money and Bedard's health are the factors
Bedard will be better than most anybody else we could put in his spot, better ERA, more strikeouts. But it’s a matter of him not falling apart before 100 IP.
We have Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman, who protect pitchers from hurting themse—- oh shit… this isn’t good.
Well, I’ll enjoy Bedard for the 85 IP he pitches here.
Ralph Wiggum would be a better GM than Dayton Moore
by BHWick on Nov 28, 2009 10:27 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
rec'd for this
who protect pitchers from hurting themse—- oh shit… this isn’t good
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by benfunke on Nov 30, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Has there ever been an instance
where a player didn’t have an injury history, to having chronic problems, back to not having problems?
Either way I say fuck it, why not if it is only a 1 year contract with incentives and an option what does it really hurt?
This space for rent.
by averagegatsby on Nov 28, 2009 11:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
do we really believe in 1-year deals with no future downside?
not for KC, anyways. name a player who got a 1-year deal under Dayton and i’ll name 3 who got multi-year deals that were more likely to hurt the team than help. pessimistic, i know, but i’m not holding my breath waiting for the team-friendly one-year deal.
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by benfunke on Nov 30, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very good piece here, I laughed out loud two or three times reading it.
: Tooooooools! Once a player displays a tool, he owns that tool. Bedard is a legitimate ace!
and this one
and the Royals actually start strong and sustain it. It’s the AL [blanking] Central.
and this one because this was my initial reaction upon hearing this rumor
Stridently Sour Response: So for weeks the Royals have said they need to shed payroll, that they need to get young, that they need us to trust the process. Instead, it looks like that once again, Dayton can’t contain himself. Once again, we’re buying a player’s past performance. Eight Bedard starts (along with 400 status-update stories) with the Royals is a waste of everyone’s time. It’s better to use those starts to see what the Royals have with the Bannister-Hochevar-Tejeda-Davies gaggle. It’s complicated enough, and we don’t need to throw another body into the mix. Let’s see what the money ends up being. The years too. Dayton’s been absolutely brutal on the FA market. Be afraid of this rumor, because it signals another silly season from Dayton Moore.
I just don’t see it happening for a couple of reasons.
A) Trey has shown he wants tough pitchers and he’ll make them tough whether their shoulder likes it or not. Why would a pitcher that has battled injuries the last two years sign on for that?
B) It’s only a good move if it is a cheap contract with incentives with the incentives only kicking in if Bedard performs well. How many teams will be offering that contract? 20? 30?
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
by Warden11 on Nov 28, 2009 11:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
tend to agree
it isn’t even december yet…
no way he’s a bargain right now
by Will McDonald on Nov 28, 2009 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly, I made the comment in one of the earlier fanshots on this comparing it to Meche.
For the Royals to get him, I do think it would be a scenario where they would have to pay more than everyone else.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
by Warden11 on Nov 29, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i like it
if the money is right, even on a 1 year deal. i think davies may be gone and i would put hochevar in middle relief to get his confidence back, for at least half a season a la Greinke…our rotation is a huge ? right now, with Meche and Bannister coming back from injuries. Our rotation currently with Davies gone and Hooch in the bullpen:
Greinke
Meche (?)
Bannister (?, even if healthy who knows what we get from him)
Tejeda, maybe?
???
Somebody has to pitch, and just because he is focusing on 0-3 players doesn’t mean the entire team should be a shithole.
Having some good players and good pitching might actually help the younger players develop at a more normal pace and gain some confidence without the pressure to be “the man”. It also fills a gap until one of our studs (Crow, Montgomery, Melville) is ready to produce at the major-league level.
Assuming that payroll will be around the same as last year, this signing still gives us the flexibility to spend a little bit to get an outfield bat, and/or maybe eat some of Guillen’s salary to pick up someone via trade.
The bottom line for me, the thinking is sound-get value wherever you can get it.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 28, 2009 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
do you think davies is gone?
not a leading question, just curious
by Will McDonald on Nov 28, 2009 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I do,
purely from the dollars standpoint. he made $1.3 million last year and will be due a raise to around $1.5-2 in arbitration. Just a guess on my part, but I think he’s traded or non-tendered. I think he’s had enough chances to be a starter, and $2 million for a reliever is pretty pricey (although he had no qualms about dropping that much on Farnsy).
I could definitely be wrong, but I think he’s gone.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 29, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One thing Dayton has been pretty decent at is
giving failed starters a shot in the bullpen. Davies is ideal bullpen material given he’s a guy that can get the strikeout and can be effective in short bursts. No way they let Davies go without giving him a shot in the pen first, unless they get some unrealistic trade offer from someone.
by jsolo on Nov 29, 2009 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What indications are there that there is anything particular going on between the Royals and Bedard?
There was a Bleacher Report story that of a signing that is pretty clearly bogus.
Then there is another story saying the Royals are extremely interested – but without making quoting or attributing anything to anyone. IOW – exactly the kinds of rumors that national “reporters” do by the dozens this time of year, and historically most of which have no basis in fact.
I suppose it’s nice to have rumors, but this has just as much substance behind it as does every story linking John Lackey to half of the clubs in MLB.
Now – I’m sure that there has been contact between the Royals and Bedard’s agent – just because every team that has a need will, at the minimum, have contact with every agent for a player who might fill that need. Often when a writer needs a few lines such contacts get written up as something such as “strong interest”, “serious discussions”, or similar.
However, to the best of my knowledge there’s nothing involving the Royals and Bedard that have is anywhere close to vapor, let alone substance.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 29, 2009 1:32 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
who knows...
maybe there’s nothing there
I have no idea what to make of the random BR story on it
yahoo also had a “Royals Going Hard After Bedard” story, which lead to this:
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2009-11-26/royals-exec-tries-cool-talk-about-bedard
which inlcuded:
Picollo acknowledged the Royals’ interest in Bedard but said the team would have to do much more research into the health of the oft-injured starter.
by Will McDonald on Nov 29, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe no one here has yet...
…attempted a play on words with RR’s “Joyous Respone” scenario.
He wrote: “Once a player displays a tool, he owns that tool.”
As such, shouldn’t we also express, in the “Stridently Sour Response” scenario, the following:
“Once a player is a tool, he is always a tool.”
For is it not true that Bedard has that reputation? And are we not attempting a Larry Johson-esque addition-by-subtraction scenario with one tool already, Jose Guillen?
:) – TL
by timlacy on Nov 29, 2009 10:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
maybe the FO is figuring
a minus times a minus equals a positive
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by benfunke on Nov 30, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and at this point Dayton is playing with imaginary numbers
Jose Guillen’s value to the team = 97 i
Farnsworth’s tuRA (totally unReliable Arm) = -6.50 i
i * i = Dayton, you should have paid more attention in math class!
In making fun of Farnsy, I learned something. His FIP was 3.10 last year. Does that mean he’s possibly headed for a bounce back this year?
by AxDxMx on Nov 30, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that might have been his bounceback
one of the weird unnoticed things was that after a horrible, horrible start, Farnsworth wasn’t so bad
granted, he almost never faced the best hitters, etc. I doubt he came in with many guys on base. Hopefully, he’ll get off to a “hot” start next season and Dayton can eat his salary to pick up Donnie Murphy
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 30, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually noticed he pitched well when Trey let him pitch in very low leverage situations
But as soon as he put a runner on base, or came in with runners on, all of the sudden it was raining baseballs.
by AxDxMx on Nov 30, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's just not clutch>/code>
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 30, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like my HTML skills
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 30, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Check one for Mildly Measured
Really, if we’re talking about 3 million dollars—shoot, even if we’re talking about 4-5 million—what’s not to like? The thing I hate about typical Royals acquisitions is their lack of upside. Catching lightning in a bottle, Bedard has Cy Young upside. Look at his line last year. In a non-Greinke-goes-cuckoo-for-cocoa-puffs year, extrapolating those numbers over a full season with the requisite wins, that’s a Cy Young line. Sure, he had labrum surgery which is a death knell for some, but Meche had the same surgery and was a better pitcher after his rebound. I hear bloggers and reporters arguing that the Yankees or Angels or Red Sox or Mets or Dodgers or Cardinals should sign Bedard to a one year contract. If the Royals were to scoop him, wouldn’t that be sort of shocking? The guy lives in the strike zone and his stuff isn’t all that hittable. In a pipe dream, he makes a nasty number two…
Look, as bad as our offense was last year, our rotation has a lot of problems. Hochevar looks to me like an eighth inning guy (which wouldn’t be such a terrible thing). Banny, god love him, is one game at a time—life is a box of chocolates, never know what yer gonna get. Who knows what happens to Meche next year. Davies? Tejeda? In my eyes, Greinke is our only non-question mark in the rotation. How many teams have ONE non-question mark. If you think about it, our rotation is actually a bigger priority than our lineup, which is horrifying. So you look at our options to fix that problem. No one in his (or her—shout out to Kim Ng) right mind is going to trade any quality starting pitching. You look at the free agent market. Lackey? Forget it (obviously). Doug Davis? For some reason, good teams in big markets fall all over themselves to sing guys like Davis. Randy Wolf ain’t coming to KC. Ditto Ben Sheets (who is just like Bedard in my mind). And I’d have thought the same about Bedard. But lo and behold, Bedard might come here? On a one-year contract? Fine with me. Fiiiine with me. I don’t know what alternatives to fix the rotation the anti-Bedards are contemplating, but I’m all ears.
*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"
by jackie ballgame on Nov 29, 2009 2:22 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I guess that's a little more than Mildly Measured
I get irrationally hopeful in the offseason. Apologies.
*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"
by jackie ballgame on Nov 29, 2009 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
apology accepted
you're welcome
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by benfunke on Nov 30, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
jeff from lookout landing reminds me via twitter
nearly half of bedard’s starts as a Mariner he made while injured, wouldn’t tell M’s about it
by Will McDonald on Nov 29, 2009 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So basically, he's a dirty liar like Aviles
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 29, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sounds like Trey's kind of guy.
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
by Warden11 on Nov 29, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The money is not the object...
…that is if Bedard can pitch. Yet I’ve seen reports sayinghe could be out until as late as June, in which case the Royals would be paying three or four million dollard for a few months of work, and he won’t be showing up until the Royals are probably already out of the race! Maybe there is some brilliant plan here to have him pitch for a month and then trade him to a contender. Somehow I doubt it. Color me “softly sour.”
by Netster on Nov 29, 2009 5:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
A torn labrum is about as bad as it gets
He won’t play most of next season and when he does play he’s not likely to be 100%. For 2011, he’s not worth much guaranteed. I think if a team pays him $3M guaranteed, they’re giving it away.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Nov 30, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
After a torn labrum patch job his 2010 season should largely be toast.
Even if he does start pitching again it’s going to take him awhile to regain form. And the record of recoveries from torn labrum surgeries is pretty dismal; for most guys a torn labrum is the end of the road.
Meche is one of the few pitchers who did have a serious labrum condition and returned to effectiveness – but Meche didn’t have a torn labrum; only severe fraying. If not treated Meche’s condition probably would have advanced to a full tear.
Actually a strategy that some team might consider is to sign Bedard to a two year deal with heavy IP incentives in year 2. Then DL him the entire 2010 season and let him work on rehabbing free of pressure.
If his career is gone, the team isn’t out too much money. If he comes back and is able to pitch effectively you get a good pitcher cheap – if he makes it all of the way back you’ll probably get 100 – 125 innings of one of the best pitchers in baseball.
by Steve Nelson on Dec 1, 2009 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
2010 will be a rehab season for him. There’s no reason for the Royals to donate millions to this guy to help fund his rehab as he attempts to get back to 100% (which probably won’t come until 2011).
I do like the two-year deal you proposed. But I doubt Bedard would like it. I guess we’ll see what the market for him is like. It’s possible that he won’t sign with anyone until July or August when he shows in workouts that he’s at least good enough for some relief innings. Then when he pitches some in 2010, he can demonstrate to everyone that he’s healthy(ish) and at least approaching his old self and then re-enter the FA market for 2011 and hopefully get some decent guaranteed money.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 1, 2009 2:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I always think of that White Sox pitcher...
…Jim Parque when I think of a torn labrum. At least I think that was his injury. Anyway, his career was o-v-e-r. Horrible.
by timlacy on Dec 1, 2009 7:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Immediate reaction upon hearing the rumor
“Wow, the transition from “The Process” into “The Plan” was so gradual that no one even noticed! Change “Juan Gonzales” to “Erik Bedard” and they’re pretty much the same".
My more measured response is somewhere between the “Mostly Measured Response” and “Slightly Sour Response”. I’m glad Dayton’s trying to win without sacrificing the future too much, but a one year deal for Bedard? In a year that his other moves seem to indicate that we’re playing for 2011?
This wouldn’t be a move to win the division in 2010 — it would be a Dotel-esque move: Grab a rehab project, get some minor useful performance out of him, and trade him at the deadline for a prospect. Basically buying a prospect for 3+ million. For the quality we’d likely get in return for a 1/2 season rental of an injured player, there’s not a huge benefit here.
Unless I'm wrong...
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by Top Ramen on Nov 30, 2009 11:58 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

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