Revising Poz's 2010 Royals lineup
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2009 12:27 PM EST
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PrintIt's been a while since I did a FanPost here, but it's a lazy Saturday (it shouldn't be, I'm insanely busy). I noticed that Joe Posnanski posted what he thinks is the likely (not his preferred) 2010 Royals lineup by career OPS+. It makes the point he wants it to, but I thought it was worth posting a perhaps-more helpful alternative. Two problems: OPS+ isn't a very good stat (not enough weight to OBP, etc), this also misses the fact that career numbers aren't especially helpful for very old or very young players. As an alternative, I'll repost Posnanski's predicted lineup, but instead of career numbers, I'll use CHONE's projections (which have "won" most offensive-projection shootouts in recent years) and instead of career OPS +, I'll use context-netural linear weights per 150 games as projected by CHONE (far superior for measuring offensive value) and will follow that with the projected three-slash. Like Posnanski, I'm not endorsing the lineup. I'm also not arguing one way or the other about Posnanski's prediction. I just think it is interesting.
1. David DeJesus, LF: +3 (.277/349/.408)
2. Chris Getz, 2B: -7 (.275/.338/370)
3. Billy Butler, 1B: +18 (.293/.360/.457)
4. Jose Guillen, DH:-9 (.254/.309/.405)
5. Alex Gordon, 3B: +9 (.260/.347/.426)
6. Willie Bloomquist, CF: -17 (.265/.323/.351)
7. Jason Kendall, C: -25 (.247/.317/315)
8. Josh Fields RF: -1 (.247/.330/.407)
9. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS: -15 (.273/.303/.387)
Again, this isn't what I'd do (or what Posnanski will do).. It's his prediction plus CHONE's numbers. I'll also put down some of the likely alternatives already on the Royals' roster plus their CHONE projections.
Alberto Callaspo, 2B/OF: +3 (.286/.347/.408)
Kila Ka'aihue, 1B/DH: +7 (.243/.355/.393)
Mitch Maier, CF: -11 (.260/.324/.366)
Brayan Pena, C: 0 (.282/.326/415)
Mike Aviles, SS: -12 (.270/.305/.403)
And what the heck, here is my own proposed lineup, assuming just the players listed here to pick from. This is not dealing with jacking up player's trade value or anything, just what I'd do in a "win now" situation. I'll just do it vs. RHP, although I think there should be different batting orders vs. RHP/LHP. If you really want to read my thoughts (at length) on the (trivial) matter of batting order construction see my series from last season (here's the article on the last season's Royals).
1. David DeJesus, LF: +3 (.277/349/.408)
2. Alberto Callaspo, RF: +3 (.286/.347/.408)
3. Kila Ka'aihue, 1B/DH: +7 (.243/.355/.393) [platoons with Josh Fields]
4. Billy Butler, 1B/DH: +18 (.293/.360/.457)
5. Alex Gordon, 3B: +9 (.260/.347/.426)
6. Brayan Pena, C: 0 (.282/.326/415)
7. Chris Getz, 2B: -7 (.275/.338/370)
8. Mike Aviles, SS: -12 (.270/.305/.403)
9. Mitch Maier, CF: -11 (.260/.324/.366)
Um, yeah... lipstick, pigs, etc.
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Should have included Pods, I'm guessing he's in GMDM's projected lineup.
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
Why is it that nearly all of my sports loves are in one of these...
Royals are in a totally awesome process
Notre Dame had a very secretive process
And the Chiefs are also in the middle of a process.
The Original member of the Ndamukong Suh bandwagon
by averagegatsby on Dec 12, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
I Think Avilanche,
Given the opportunity (which won’t happen), would exceed this projection. I base this on nothing, kind of like your grandmother picking NFL games.
I like Fan Man (Fields) as a platoon DH, but keep him the hell out of RF. I know, I place way too much emphasis of defense in RF, but that’s just me. Dunn in RF is excruciating for me to watch, and Fan Man would be no better. Maybe slide DDJ over to CF and put him in LF against LHP. I’m not wild about Bert in RF, but at least his bat would compensate somewhat for his lead feet.
I’m really pulling for Getz, but he’ll likely disappoint me. I would rather see Mitch in CF 162 games a year than have Bloomers start anywhere, much less CF. Maybe Bloomers could spell Getz against tough LHP’s; he doesn’t completely suck at 2B.
I suspect Hoagy’s hamstrings will solve the problem of his continued presence on the team. GMDM won’t release him, but two stints on the 60 day DL sounds about right.
BPJ will probably start a few day games and double headers and pinch hit against RHP’s because Trey can’t figure out splits.
Please remember, I have no basis for anything I say.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Personally, I prefer honest subjectivism
to subjectivism masquerading as objectivism
Getz isn’t much with the bat, but he might be okay, depending on what his defense is really like. He’s also a good baserunner. Assming YBJ -for-life, an Avilanche/Getz platoon would be the end of the world (Aviles is also a really good baserunner, something that sort of went unnoticed)
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
"wouldn't be the end of the world"
i gots the mad typing skillz
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
and I screwed up my joke in trying to reply to you.
Damn it.
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
I Hadn't Thought
Of Avilanche at 2B; I’m still hoping for some kind of benign nagging injury for The Devil Part 2. A MIF of Getz and Aviles would have to make Hochevar more confident than Callaspo and Yu-Bet did. With a healthy A-Gor at 3B, Jeeves might be the worst defender on that IF, as it should be. It might be league average on offense, too, or even better if A-Gor and Jeeves have the legendary “breakout” years we’ve been looking for.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 12, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
In 2012, though.
an Avilanche/Getz platoon would be the end of the world
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
What's truly depressing
is the realization that your proposed lineup is actually above average.
Sigh.
This space for rent.
Good thing
Dayton has a lot more tricks up his sleeve. Scott Podsednik here we come!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
THERE NO OTHER FREE AGENTS OUT THERE
do u srsly think taht Langerhans, Gross, or Church, are better t han Pdsednik who has a ring and can mentr r younger guys?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 12, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
I think CHONE is pretty generous
given Maier’s minor league performance and age. CHONE has his OBP 8 points lower than his Bondsian 2009 (for him), and has him slugging .366, which is also, well, Bondsian compared to his previous major league performance.
Granted, that’s still better than Scott Podsednik would do on offense or defense.
KC needs at least one more outfielder. If Dayton is still targeting Podsednik with guys like Gabe Gross, Ryan Church, and Xenu Langerhans now available, well, then he needs… oh, heck, we knew that at least a year ago.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 13, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
hope we land church
i would like langerhans more if our offense was better. i know in a vacuum runs saved = runs created, but if runs created are currently at zero for most games, seems like you go “O” over “D”
All things being equal, maybe
except LAngerhans is healthier than Church, and probably not that far behind him offensively, looking at projections — it’s close enough thta Langerhans’ D outstrips Church’s. Langerhans will likely come cheaper. He’s can also play CF
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 13, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
"he"
You could make a halfway decent OF just from non-tendered ex-Braves: LF Kelly Johnson, CF Langerhans, RF Ryan Church
money behind equal, I’d rather have Gabe Gross than Ryan Church
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 13, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Really?
Maybe I’m undervaluing Gross’s defense and overvaluing Church’s…. I just always had the impression that Church was considered a decent defensive option, better than Gabe. I should probably look that up.
Anyway, seems like Gross has decent power, and walks at a decent clip, but can’t post a high enough average to have above average OBP or SLG. Sort of reminds me of Jacobs in 2009, come to think of it.
I have a post coming up on Gross this afternoon at FGs
Despite Church’s switch hitting, he’s becoming something of a platoon guy.
The projection systems I’ve seen have them close with Gross a bit ahead (including my own). Gross has also been hitting in the AL
Both are good defenders, I think Gross is better, and Church’s injuries won’t help. As a corollary to that, Gross will be more likely to be available for more games.
I like Church, but I’d take Gross given equal money.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
I'd take the over on CHONE projections for Butler, Gordon, Callaspo
DeJesus, Guillen, Pena all seem about right.
Kila and Maier…. the Chone projections might be a tad generous but my fanhood prevents me from disagreeing
I’d take the under on everyone else I’m afraid.
I like Brayan
but I think CHONE might be a bit high for him, as with Kila. Most projections that rely heavily on MLEs will be because of their nature — the selection bias, etc.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 13, 2009 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
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