BLOCKBUSTER: 2 Cy Young Winners dealt
I figured Dayton traded Greinke for some Magic Beans. But no, Cliff Lee is going to Seattle, Roy Halladay is going to Philly, and Toronto is getting prospects from Seattle and Philly. It's all in the link.
As a sidenote, I think Seattle may have just won the AL West with this move. I wish Jack Z was our GM.
about 2 years ago
AxDxMx
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were the prospects that the mariners gave up really good? (wishing we could’ve had a Grienke/Lee 1-2). Also, is it worth it to get halladay when you’ve got lee?
My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!
they're locking up Halladay to an extension
Lee is a FA after this season
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 14, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
It's unclear what the Mariners are giving up ...
… one report has the Mariners giving up Phillipe Aumont, Tyler Gillies, and Juan Ramirez. That’s a great deal for the Mariners if true; in fact so good that it leaves one wondering how accurate that report is.
Some other reports indicate Morrow or Saunders (but not both) instead of Ramirez.
Note that Aumont, Gillies, and Saunders are all Canadian, so they may have some added value for Toronto.
by Steve Nelson on Dec 14, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
agree with seattle being favorites
get an ace into your team and the current best teams ace leaves.
My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!
If you ask me...
Thats a pretty big slap in the face to Cliff Lee by Philly… “Yeah you are a good pitcher and really helped us in the playoffs, but you aren’t Halladay”
You really should get professional help. Your obsession with ND football is not healthy. ---Dr. lookingdeadred
I don't get
The more I think about it, the only way this makes sense to me is if Philly only gave up completely sub-par prospects with very little upside. Because yes Halladay may be an improvement, but he makes like 3 times what Cliff Lee does. I guess thats not as important I just dont see Halladay being that much better than Cliff.
You really should get professional help. Your obsession with ND football is not healthy. ---Dr. lookingdeadred
by averagegatsby on Dec 14, 2009 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
Philly is getting four years of Halladay in exchange for one year of Lee
If the reports are accurate that Halladay’s extension is three years and $60 million, the Phillies are getting Halladay at about half of what he could get on the open market.
Lee reportedly is not interested in signing an extension.
Okay...
That clears it up a little. I missed the extension part. I was too focused on why Lee wasn’t good enough.
You really should get professional help. Your obsession with ND football is not healthy. ---Dr. lookingdeadred
by averagegatsby on Dec 14, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
Do you really think someone would sign Halladay
for 6 years/$120 million? He would be making $20 million as a 39 year old. I assume you don’t think someone would pay him more than $20 million a year.
I guess what I mean is
3/$60MM is probably a discount, but I don’t think it’s anywhere near 50% off.
AJ Burnett and John Lackey got 5 years/$85 million as 3-4 win pitchers with heightened injury risks
Halladay is a legitimate 6-7 win pitcher with a low injury risk and a skill set (spotless command and high groundball rates) that age very well. Sabathia, who is in Halladay’s class, got 7 years and $161 million with his weight and conditioning issues offset by his relatively young age.
If Halladay was a free agent, he would get 6 years and $120 million. Even at 5 years and $100 million, his current deal is still a huge discount.
That's the Braves though
and they do things the Dayton Moore approved way.
Think they’re regretting that one yet? I mean, he’s not horrible, but the money!
Jose Guillen got 3/$36MM for his age 32-34 seasons
Teams overpay for things. They often overpay at a greater ratio to performance the lower the level of performance. Carlos Silva got a big deal too. That doesn’t mean a team will overpay in the same proportions to get Halladay.
Sabathia was a different situation
He was 28 when the contract started and Halladay will be 34 when this contract starts. Six years is a big deal, especially for a starting pitcher. Also, I’m not so sure weight and conditioning were a factor limiting Sabathia’s salary because he has never had any sort of injury or durability issues. Halladay did have
The Lackey, Lowe, Burnett deals are different too. A 6 win pitcher doesn’t make double what a 3 win pitcher makes. Maybe they should, but they don’t. MLB contract values aren’t exactly driven by WAR.
I guess what I don’t understand is that if it is an enormous discount, why Halladay would even agree to it. I know he wanted out of Toronto, but why would he sacrifice tens of millions in future salary to get out of the last year there. That doesn’t make sense. When you factor in that the Phillies are giving up prospects plus a cheaper year of Lee for a more expensive year of Halladay, the contract does need to be somewhat favorable for them for the trade to even make sense. However, on balance, I wouldn’t exactly call the trade and contract a huge bargain.
Philly was just in the WS two years in a row
Who is the odds on favorite to go there next year? Probably Philly again right? He’s going to an awesome situation.
Yeah, but he's not gonna give up tens of millions to trade a year of the Blue Jays for a year of the Phillies
He could have just waited until next year and signed with anyone he wanted at market value. He definitely gave up some money to go to Philly; I just have a really hard time believing he gave up a fourth (let alone half) of his potential earnings. Spending $60MM over 3 is not saving half over spending $120MM over 6.
Maybe, but at his age he could wanting it to happen now.
No guarantees he’ll stay healthy. Take 60 Million now with a shot at the World Series? Not a bad deal for him.
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
Halladay would get more than Burnett or Lackey easy
A 6 win pitcher doesn’t make double what a 3 win pitcher makes. Maybe they should, but they don’t. MLB contract values aren’t exactly driven by WAR.
Burnett (at age 32) and Lackey (at age 31) had $85 million guaranteed. At $120 million, Halladay would only get 30% more, not double. Even if Halladay could only get 5 years/$100 million, 3 years and $60 million is a huge discount.
Halladay signs the extension because he goes to the team that he wants and gets the security of the $60 million (on top of the $15 million for 2010) without the risk of getting injured in 2010 and getting nothing. It is the same reason Greinke signed his extension even though he could have made tens of millions more if he had waited until free agency.
I'm not disagreeing that Halladay gave up money by signing a long term deal.
Every player that has ever signed a long term deal has done that. I’m not even arguing that Halladay couldn’t get $120MM over 6. I would expect that he could. I was just disagreeing with your statement that Philly was paying half of market price. They are in terms of years, but in terms of salary per WAR, they are not getting a “huge discount”. I just don’t think it’s accurate to say that 3/$60MM is half of market price. In a 3 year deal as opposed to 6, the Phillies limit their exposure to injury risk, but they also limit their upside risk that Halladay will continue to perform at a high level.
Almost any contract that is the same annual rate for less years is more team friendly in terms of pay for production, but that doesn’t translate to a 50% savings.
I'm really not sure what you are arguing
I said the following:
If the reports are accurate that Halladay’s extension is three years and $60 million, the Phillies are getting Halladay at about half of what he could get on the open market.
If Hallday was a free agent, Halladay should get a contract around 6 years and $120 million based on the comparables. You apparently agree, stating that “I would expect that he could” get $120 million over 6 years.
3 years is half of 6 six years and $60 million is half of $120 million.
by Gopherballs on Dec 15, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Anyway
for 3 years, he should be trying to get $80M
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
I like your boy Dave Cameron’s reaction to the rumored Halladay extension:
Stark reports Halladay extension is 3/60. Way to leave $100 million on the table, Doc.
Thanks for the remedial math lesson.
I interpreted your statement different than you meant it. In terms of guaranteed dollars right now they paid half, but that is obviously not what I was talking about. What I said below is similar to d_f’s response to this comment. What I already said was:
If Halladay signed a 3 year deal after next year, he could maybe get $75MM or so. If you deduct several million in injury risk that the Phillies are exposed to that a team signing him next year would not be, the savings is in the realm of 15-20%. That is a good savings but nowhere near 50%. For that kind of savings, he would have had to sign for 3/$35MM or so.
My point is that for the number of years they paid for, it is closer to a 20% savings than 50%. Both are good deals, but one is a regular sale and one is a Black Friday sale. What I was arguing is that you are vastly overstating the savings that the Phillies got for signing him at $60MM/3 years
You are arguing against a position that I did not make or suggest
My point is that for the number of years they paid for, it is closer to a 20% savings than 50%
Again, I never said that the Phillies were getting Halladay for half of what he would be worth over “the number of years they paid for.” I merely said that if three years and $60 million for the extension were correct, “the Phillies are getting Halladay at about half of what he could get on the open market.” You apparently understood that by questioning, “Do you really think someone would sign Halladay for 6 years/$120 million?” I explained my reasoning with the comparables and Halladay’s skillset that, yes, “If Halladay was a free agent, he would get 6 years and $120 million.”
If Halladay was a free agent, there is zero chance he signs for only three years — it likely would take six years given the current market. With the rumored extension, the Phillies would be getting a great discount on the number of years (as well as the money) because those committments are far less than what the Phillies would have to make if Halladay was a free agent on the open market.
Okay, man, I think we've been over everything you just said
I just said in the previous comment that I interpreted what you said in a way that was different than you meant. I only explained further because you asked what I was disagreeing with. Obviously, I was disagreeing with a position that you don’t agree with and didn’t actually take. I guess I didn’t make it immediately clear at first that I was talking about dollars per year as opposed to total contract value, but that was my point.
When I asked about 6/120 in the first post that was an actual question, not a sarcastic one. After I thought about it, I agreed, but I didn’t see 3/60 as a 50% discount from 6/120. Apparently, neither do you, so we are actually not arguing about anything. I already have said I agreed with everything you wrote in the second paragraph.
Summary: We both agree the Phillies got a good deal, and we both also agree that the savings (while substantial) was not at all close to 50%. I will try to be clearer in the future.
If Halladay signed a 3 year deal after next year
He could maybe get $75MM or so. If you deduct several million in injury risk that the Phillies are exposed to that a team signing him next year would not be, the savings is in the realm of 15-20%. That is a good savings but nowhere near 50%. For that kind of savings, he would have had to sign for 3/$35MM or so.
$60MM/3 years is not saving half over $120MM/6 years
The one-year TiVo plan is not saving two thirds off of the cost of the three-year TiVo plan
It's like Jack Z is just standing on top of the Space Needle
yelling “F you!!” and flipping the bird in the general direction of Anaheim. I love it.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 14, 2009 6:18 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Damn it, there goes Grass Creek.
King Felix and Cliff Lee, nice little 1-2.
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
At least they'll split the Cy Young votes
and Greinke can win it again!
by AxDxMx on Dec 14, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.
Jack Z outsmarted himself again.
by hunter s. royal on Dec 15, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
pretty sure Jason Kendall will heal Gil Meche's body
so that’s 3-4 wins right there
His defense, along with Yuni at SS, adds 1-2 wins to Hoch
I also see Kendall’s game calling increasing Banny’s K rate by 1-2 Ks a game
Davies will now be league average
/jasonkendallfacts
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
And you know Zack will improve
with Olivo’s terrible game-calling, he was still a 9 win pitcher. So get ready for the best of Clemens’ ’97 mixed with Pedro ’99
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
just look what Kendall did for that Brewers staff last year!
who do we want in the first round? personally, I want Boston
by Freneau on Dec 14, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I feel like there were less than five stolen bases off of Zack all year
Maybe that is an exaggeration, but it was something ridiculous. Maybe that’s why DM felt comfortable with Kendall trying to stop runners.
In all seriousness I am fairly confident that a team of 5 (maybe 4) Greinkes could beat a team of 9 Kendalls.
You need to apologize to Zack right now
low blow
You think it would take 4?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
Slightly off topic thought
But i’ve often wondered how good the likes of Carlos Zambrano, Mike Hampton, maybe Zack etc would be if they were actually allowed to really practice their hitting, and do it regularly.
You also forgot to add the gain associated with releasing Jacobs.
by Steve Nelson on Dec 14, 2009 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
Wouldn't Toronto have been better off
Trying to deal Wells and Halladay as a package taking a considerably lesser return. Say they only got Dom Brown and a cast of AAA crap. Isn’t that a better deal long term for the franchise, even if it kills you with the media? Philly could dump his corpse in RF and he might get a bump off the NL. Granted, they’d be releasing him in two or three years, but it does lessen your short term loss.
yeah
different people have pointed that out all season, too, you aren’t alone. They should have tried to trade Halladay and Wells and their contract for… nothing
Would never happen, obviously, but between that and dumping Rios (which turns out to be smart, if people would look at it right), it would be like hitting reset on the franchise
but no one every has done it on that scale, to my knowledge
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
"ever done it"
argh
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
Is this the biggest trade ever?
It’s been a day and the thought didn’t even occur to me. But, you have 2 legit aces, both former Cy Youngs, and still pitching at that level. Then you have to consider that there are 3 teams and a boatload of prospects. Then I started thinking- what is the biggest trade ever?
A quick look produced this link:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-biggest-deals-of-all-time/
It does seem to be up there with those.
Maybe this still takes the cake:
“December 5th, 1990: Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter traded by the San Diego Padres to the Toronto Blue Jays for Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez.”
But, it depends on how the young guys turn out in this deal
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