A Quick Thought on Ruben Amaro Jr.
by Will McDonald on Dec 15, 2009 12:17 AM EST
in News
43 comments
Ruben Amaro Jr. is starting to remind me of Omar Minaya's early days in New York.
Like Minaya, he's inherited a tremendous core of young talent, one that you'd really have to try to not win with. Right now, he's still a darling with most of the mainstream media, especially after they rallied around Raul "RBIs" Ibanez last summer, and I fully expect he'll be hailed for this Halladay mega-deal, should it go through.
That being said, Amaro's made a number of head-scratching moves and the Phillies are closer to an expensive Mets-esque collapse, with Halladay taking on Santana's role as the frustrated Ace of a third place team, than you might think. I don't see this happening next season, but if the Phillies are going to win in 2011-12, then Amaro's abilities as a General Manager are going to need to improve.
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Besides Wright and Reyes
The Mets dont have alot of young talent. Beltran and Delgado are in the decline and the Mets have had big problems in their Pitching (starting and relief) and Corner OF spots over the past few years.
But players like Howard,Utley,Rollins,Werth,Victorino,Hamels,and Halladay are all in the prime of their careers and give the Phillies a solid foundation for atleast the next four years.
and my sense is, that is where the phillies are going
the 2006 Mets are pretty stunning in their oldness:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2006.shtml
look at some of their starters
Glavine (40) Traschel (35) Pedro (34) El Duque (40)
but remember, people used to be pointlessly high on John Maine, Pelfrey, etc… I see parallels to Happ
by Will McDonald on Dec 15, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
The Phillies aren't young
Utley is one of the best players in game, of course. ROllins is good. Werth is very good and underrated. Howard is one of the most overrated players in the game, but a good hitter. And so on. But all these guys are around or in their early 30s — they are on the decline. They may be in their “primes,” but it’s the end of the. 2010 is the window… by 2011, this team will have a very different feel, especially if Amaro only keeps adding guys from the outside who are in their mid-30s.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
Not at all unlike the situation in Seattle after Gillick bowed out ...
… or in Baltimore after Gillick left there.
by Steve Nelson on Dec 15, 2009 1:57 AM EST up reply actions
fire 'em all
Either he was on board w/ Yuni & Kendall, or he pretended to trying to undermine Dayton. What’s worse, lack of knowledge or integrity?
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 8:19 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Maybe DM just ignored him
and after the decision is made you might as well as present a united front until it becomes obvious someone’s getting fired.
I wonder if there's a lot of truth in this statement.
I read multiple pieces this summer that made mention of the tension in the front office and how everyone was walking around on eggshells (around the Rany thing). How many of the bad decisions are made by one or two people who then ignore all other viewpoints? Because honestly, I can see one person being talked into signing Kendall, but a room full of educated people?
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
Hmm...
it woudl be nice if there were tension. I haven’t heard that, but hopefully someone has. All i’ve heard is that they’re incredibley paranoid and defensive.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
arbuckle, piccolo (sp?) and dayton
are all highly regarded (or were, in Dayton’s case) but are all coming from the same perspective
that being said, if they all liked yuni…
by Will McDonald on Dec 15, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
It's really hard for fans to tell sometimes how a guy will end up
when Jack Z. was first interviewed, if I remember correctly, the Mariner fan cognescenti were optimistic about him, but he wasn’t necessarily the first choice, and was seen as a smart, but traditional guy. All the stat stuff came quick, but I remember it being a big surprise how open and into it he was. He’s an ugly ol’ scout.
Not sure what the point is, other than who knows what you’re going to get.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
the sad thing is...
dayton had the opportunity to build a cheap defensive first team from the beginning
with his pitching chops (which basically is all I think he has) we could have been much more interesting
the amazing part of it is, he keeps bringing in worse and worse defensive guys, even though you would think that this would be an old-school, bravest way approved thing
its like he’s trying
by Will McDonald on Dec 15, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
There it is again!
its like he’s trying
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
I didnt say the Phillies were young
But they have alot of good players in their prime. The Phillies have a solid core that will keep them in contention over the next 4 or 5 years. Plenty of time to rebuild your system if you can draft well. Maybe a couple of down years, but if the Phils pull off another Championship and stay in contention for a half decade, Philly can be happy for awhile.
Not every team can win every year. If you have a solid run you can live off it. Ask the Rays,Rangers,Mariners,Nats,Astros,Brewers,Padres,SF Giants, and Rockies life long fans what they would give for a World Series Championship.
National League has so many bad GMs
Dayton could probably field a competitive team in that league. I’m starting to think the power imbalance between the AL and NL these days is because there are so many more poor GMs in the National League. IIRC all the analyst-maligned moves of the offseason so far have been made by NL teams, except for the Royals’ Kendall deal.
Bad trade for the Phillies and a steal for the Mariners if the prospects involved are who they are currently reported to be.
by swing and a miss on Dec 15, 2009 3:15 AM EST reply actions
Too much time to think about this
A daring view, but I think RR, you are wrong about it. Difference between Mets and Phillies, is they have drafted well and spent money on player development. Since I am not an insider, I can’t tell you the impact of Arbuckle leaving and his role in player dev. But then, some of the Phillies’ core was from Wade’s regime.
I think you should give Amaro the benefit of the doubt, after all, they went to the world series, much more than Minaya has accomplished. RR you may have too much time in your hands thinking stuff like this.
They say history repeats itself
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Minaya got to the Mets to a Game 7 of the NLCS
not terribly different than the Phillies winning the WS in the grand scheme of things
I’m not saying Amaro is a terrible GM, but he’s also only been around in his present role for about 1.5 years
by Will McDonald on Dec 15, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
It will help
That they are printing money in Philly. They sell out a ton of games, merchandise is flying off the shelves, and their RSN is doing well. Philly is actually a pretty good baseball town. I can’t believe people used to think of them as a small market in the 90s. They could be a mini-Yankees.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Starring Chase Utley as Ryan Howard's sidekick!
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
Winning World Series>Losing in 7 in NLCS
Apples and Oranges man. To say it is not different is the biggest bunch of crap Ive heard in my life.
It's not like they are worlds apart
Changing some bad luck in one game in the NLCS puts them into the WS, and then who knows?
so a team that loses a one-run game in game 7 of the NLCS...
… is how far removed from a WS winning team?
there has to be some kind of reasonable scale
by Will McDonald on Dec 15, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
that's on the GM
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Amaro never won a World Series
Gillick was the GM for the 2008 season. Amaro took over a team that was the defending champs, and had them get back to a World Series they lost. Omar took over a team that had finished 71-91 the year before and had them an inning away from the World Series by his second year. In a lot of ways, Omar accomplished way MORE than Amaro as a GM – Omar signed Beltran, traded for Delgado, and lucked into having Wright and Reyes hit their primes. Amaro took over a team where all the stars were already in their primes.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
Man, if that difference is a fireable offense for the GM
Who do you fire for being as bad as the Royals are? Everyone right down to the guys who park cars before the game?
I'm a Mets fan
and this post is mostly spot-on. I’ve been saying for a year that I think Amaro is going to end up being a pretty terrible GM. That said, I have one disagreement: you said “Like Minaya, he’s inherited a tremendous core of young talent, one that you’d really have to try to not win with.”
Take a look at the 2004 Mets – that’s the roster that Omar took over. Reyes, Wright, and Glavine were in place, but Omar brought in pretty much every other important piece for that 2006 team. That’s a huge difference from stepping in as the GM of the defending champs that already have Utley, Howard, Rollins, Werth, Hamels, etc.
I don’t mean this as a defense of Omar – I think he’s a terrible GM who needs to go, but I don’t think Amaro has proven anything yet, and think the potential is there for him to be even worse than Omar.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
Because I know you guys will get a laugh out of this...
Philly just signed Ross Gload to a 2-year, $2.6 million deal. You’ve seen Men in Black, right? Well, picture Ruben Amero as Edgar, and Dayton Moore as the evil alien possessing him. Do you think there’s any possibility to this?
It's interesting to see the casual fanbase/casual analysts hail Amaro, Jr. as a genius for his "accomplishments" in Philly in less than 1 year
Raul Ibanez!!!! And now HALLADAY! A Phillie! Ruben Amaro, genius!
And 3 1/2 years later, we’re still in “wait and see” mode with Dayton Moore. Give him time! The cupboard was bare! Farm system (whoever plays down there…you know, those two guys, Moustakas and Hosmer, and nobody else) is rapidly improving!
That's the part I don't understand as well
It does feel like DM just got here, but he’s been at this for quite a while now. If I remember correctly 2009 was supposed to be a year of contention.
If I remember correctly 2009 was supposed to be a year of contention.
It was…based on his own evaluations.
by Royals Nation on Dec 18, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Because WAR means nothing and a .270/.300/.360 player with “good” (although really terrible) defense is supposed to make a winning team.
Same thing with veteran presence at the back of the rotation and other such horrific nonsense.
by Royals Nation on Dec 18, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sick of the excuses for Dayton
Seattle just lost 101 games last year, their farm system was emptied by the Bedard trade and is still not good, they have $48 million tied up in Carlos Silva, their hitters were worse than the Royals this year, and their pitchers had worse FIP. Yet they won 20 more games than the Royals in 2009 and will be contenders in 2010 if the Lee trade goes through. Makes me want to barf all over GMDM.
by swing and a miss on Dec 16, 2009 5:36 AM EST up reply actions
Excuses for Dayton are why this team is perennially bad
It’s a midwest mindset (doesn’t really plague St. Louis, but hurts our market). I could elaborate on this for paragraphs and paragraphs…
by Royals Nation on Dec 20, 2009 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
Winning now
Is it not obvious that Philly is in win now mode. Halladay and Ibanez are more vital to this team now than Taylor and Drabek are. You cant always stick to your guns and let the farm system refill your team each year. The Phillies have their window and a chance at a great run over the next 3 or 4 years. You gotta win when you can.
I
I'd bet that Taylor and Drabek produce more in the next 4 years than Ibanez.
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
can we not put Halladay and Ibanez in the same sentence?
Utley and Halladay are on one level, then there’s another with Howard, Werth, Hamels, and maybe still Rollins, then there’s Victorino and MAYBE Ibanez…
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
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