At Least We Where There
Are we a serious player for Aroldis Chapman? The Royals think so. But do we?
about 2 years ago
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I think we are
I think DM has the correct philosophy that although he can’t outspend big markets for high end FAs, he can outspend them for low-end FAs. I just wish it would be more guys like Arguelles and Chapman, and fewer Farnsworths and Kendalls.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'm not sure how Chapman could possibly be worth 20 million or so.
I won’t complain if it happens, but I will if it doesn’t work out. If you pay that much to someone he has to be very, very good at the major league level. It seems like WAY too much to pay someone unless he’d be able to start no later than 2011. Way too much money to spend on a “prospect” per se. They’d have to be confident enough in his abilities to say that he could play in the bigs at a high level with little to no further development.
I’d rather spend money on multiple guys who drop in the draft. The farm system needs lots of high level prospects, not one guy. You’re telling be a kid like Tanner Poppe who we drafted around round 35 wouldn’t be a better deal at 1 million than Chapman at 20million or so? Poppe was a 6’6" projectible guy BA top 200 guy with a good fastball from what I recall. Don’t we have a better shot at 1 out of every 15-20 or so of these guys becoming a very good ML pitcher?
We should try to stack the minor leagues with at least 4-5 first/second round talents every year.
I don't know
$20 mill is probably as high as I’d want to go, and I’d be much more comfortable in the $16 mill range, but if you think about it, you get the guy under-market value for six years. Say you get him on a $16 mill bonus you’re getting him for $17 million over three MLB years, not much more per year than you’re paying for Kyle Farnsworth. And his upside is an ace type pitcher. Now he could bust and be absolutely nothing, but so could any free agent.
I think its a way for small market teams to get elite talent without having to pay elite money.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Cf., the draft
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
(that's supposed to be agreeing with you)
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
And the thing is with an international prospect
he’s a free agent, so you don’t spend any draft picks on him. Even if you determine you want to spend money on guys who drop in the draft because of signability concerns, you only have so many picks to take those gambles on. With guys like Cuthbert, Arguelles, Chapman, etc., there’s no limit to the number of chances you can take (except for Glass’ wallet, that is).
If I were running a small market team, I would make scouting and taking calculated risks on international guys like this one of my highest priorities. It’s one of the few areas where small budget teams can get huge returns on a relatively small investment.
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by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 15, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
Well, any team can get the huge return on a small investment
not just small market ones. It’s just a lot smarter risk for a small-market team than it is for them to, say, sign a free agent to a contract he’ll only earn if he meets his 90% percentile projection. Or something.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with lower priced free agents, certainly. I just don’t like paying 20 million for a “prospect” unless he’s about as good as Strasburg.
How much did Cuthbert sign for again? 1.5 right? I know it’s probably 8-10 years out for these kids but I would spend heavily in the draft and sign a few more of these top 10 Latin America kids.
I’m just kind of risk averse when it comes to prospects that cost this much. We could sign 10 Cuthbert’s for the same cost.
very true
We have to find 10 Cuthbert’s though. And they all have to want to sign with us.
From what I understand, if Chapman was in this years draft, he’d go #1 over Bryce Harper. But that’s some people’s viewpoint. So, that’s the rumor…
I’d toss out $20 million to him if I was in charge there and we had it budgeted.
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Not worth the money.
We already have tons of pitching in the pipeline. Id much rather save the money for Zack.
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