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New in Rumor Central: KC, Detroit, Oakland and Seattle among possibilities for Jack Cust.

about 2 years ago Royalsretro_tiny RoyalsRetro 30 comments 1 recs  | 

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So long, Kila

If they can get Cust at a seriously discount rate ($2M or less), it wouldn’t be so bad. We’d get some walks and homers out of it. But it doesn’t really improve the team in the future.

Mindblowing that we haven’t heard a peep about trying to get a cheap outfielder like Gross, Church, or Langerhans. Well, mindblowing as in “infuriating,” not “surprising.”

Seriously, though, paying for a DH, even a good hitter like Cust (despite his down season last year) is silly for a team in the Royals position, but especially if they refuse to give Kila a shot. Yes, he wasn’t great last year, but what is there to lose?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions  

he wasn't great

but he wasn’t bad either. it is impossible to say for sure, but i would guess he would have been at least as productive as jacobs and his OBP would have been higher. i don’t understand their handling of kila…

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Dec 17, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

The Ms are said to be interested in him

but it might be on a minor-league deal

THe Royals coudl probably get him for less than $1M

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 6:07 PM EST up reply actions  

There is obviously something very wrong with any player who would sign a contract for less than 2 years and $3M+

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 17, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

How could they do this

Without kicking the tires on Church, Gross or even Gomes? I like this even less than the Kendall signing.

by Dadunca on Dec 17, 2009 5:03 PM EST reply actions  

Johnny Gomes is Jack Cust

without the bat

well, that’s kinda mean, but he isn’t nearly the hitter Cust is

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Cheaper though, right?

Really the guy I want is Church. Is he worse than Cust too?

by Dadunca on Dec 17, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Depends on what you want

he’s not nearly the hitter Cust is (although Cust’s projections will be all over given his “old player” skills), but h e can actually play the field, and well. With Church, there is also concern about how durable he is. I’d rank the cheap FA OFs like this, although they’re all pretty close

1) Gabe Gross — average bat, very good defense, has played in the AL the last couple years

2) Ryan Langherhans — poor bat, outstanding defense, perhaps well enough to be a plus defender in CF

3) Church — bat probably between Gross and Langerhans, good defense in the past, injury concerns, has never played in the AL

Kelly Johnson is preferable to all these guys because of age, but I don’t think he has the arm for RF

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

cust would have to DH, right?

i don’t have the stats in front of me but all signs point to horrible OF defense, perhaps worse than Guillen

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Dec 17, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, he has to DH

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

my question is - why even acquire Cust when you're not going to contend next year

and you have Kila languishing in AAA with nearly an identical skill set for much cheaper

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Dec 17, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Langerhans makes the most sense as he can play CF

And the CF depth chart right now is Maier and, um, Bloomquist.

Gross is probably a little better player overall than Church, but if healthy and in a neutral park, Church might be the best bet to put up a 280/350/475 year while playing good defense.

by Gopherballs on Dec 17, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Church might have that "upside"

given that he’s played less than Gross and thus there’s probably a wider “distribution” in the projection if CHONE would post those again or if I knew how to do them…

CHONE’s neutralized projections:

Gross .243/.342/.393, 0 (average)/150
Church .260/.329/408, -4/150
Langerhans .237/.332/.391 -5/150

My projections (no park or league adjustments) & reliability scores

Gross .246/.346/.409, +3/150 (.746 rel.)
Church .267/.336/.420, 1/150 (.794 rel. — wow, higher than Gross)
Langerhans .243/.344/400, 0/150 (.591 rel.)

Obviously, I defer to CHONE, especially re: Langerhans, since I my projections (souped-up Marcels) don’t take minor leagues into account or normalize for park and league, But it’s worth the contrast.

Also worth noting that Church, despite being a switch hitter, has a split so far that looks a lot like a LHH’s typical split.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Oops

my Church projected lwts should be -1/150

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

My big concern with Church

Is his declining power numbers, in conjunction with his concussion problems.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 17, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe a better way to say it

is that I would expect Church to have the higher optimistic projection (i.e., 90% or 75% projection) than the other two given Church’s past performances. Gross is the safer pick and likely overall better player.

Of course, I am just eyeballing it from the cheap seats.

by Gopherballs on Dec 17, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

that's what I meant with my "distribution" comment

I’ll be really interested to see what these three guys go for in total

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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Church, the bigger name, will get maybe $2 million

Gross will get less than that and maybe not even a major league contract

Langerhans will re-sign with Seattle on a minor league deal.

by Gopherballs on Dec 17, 2009 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

incredible that Gross might not get a major league contract

he would be one of the three best OFs not only on the Royals, but probably also the Twins, White Sox, Giants, Rockies, Dbacks, Cardinals, Cubs… that’s just off the top of my head

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 17, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

That sort of thing really frustrates me.

On the one hand, at least there are other teams that don’t recognize the value of players like these. But on the other hand, that’s probably not going to last a lot longer, and Dayton is going to be around for the foreseeable future. I wish we could take advantage of inefficiencies like these while they were still inefficiencies.

by KCBear on Dec 17, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Is Langerhans much better than Maier?

Seems like a waste if not.

Yes, I'm still alive. Sorry to disappoint you.

by royaldaddy on Dec 17, 2009 11:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I think he is

better offensively and defensively. maier is younger. Langherans is good enough on defense that he might be average, despite his bat. Maier isn’t really there.

But even if they were the same, it would still be worth it for the minimum. Maier’s really a 4th OF, but he’s the second best OF the Royals have. So the Royals even have three major league OFs? The Royals could easily pick up Langerhans and Gross…

well, not anymore, Seattle resigned Langerhans to a major league deal earlier. Oh, and dumped Silva for Milton Bradley.

Slow and steady dayton.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 18, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Jeff Fiorentino

Has signed with the Hiroshima Carp

http://yakyubaka.com/tag/jeff-fiorentino/

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 18, 2009 12:36 PM EST reply actions  

Sounds like Royals were doing nothin more than just inquiring
Yesterday I mentioned KC, Detroit and Seattle as possibilities for Jack Cust. Checked today, and it was more tire-kicking by KC and Detroit.

It appears Seattle might be the most serious suitor. But if Cust DHes, it would cut into Ken Griffey Jr’s ABs. That could be a problem.

Jerry Crasnick

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Dec 18, 2009 9:14 PM EST reply actions  

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