Royals Minor Impacts
by kcscoliny on Dec 20, 2009 12:24 AM EST
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Which '09 Royal Minor leaguer will have the best impact on the 2010 season?
The Candidates
Positional Players
Kila Ka'aihue (You know you are a Royal Junkie when you don't have to lookup how to spell his name)- Kila's season was a bit of a let down after his awesome '08 but he continued to be patient. In most organizations that would be something praised but not this GMDM led organization. His MLEs from '08 look like this .210/.321/.348. Those DH numbers wouldn't be all that different from what we saw last season.
Jordan Parraz- Jordan had a very good season after GMDM stole him from the Astros for a defunked lefty . Parraz doesn't offer a ton of home run power but he has some decent gap power and speed from what I've read. Parraz has moved level to level and while he has never had a total disappointing season his ceiling is somewhat limited. His defense looks to be average at best according to the defensive numbers at minorleaguesplits. Parraz could be a remake of David Dejesus with average defense. Not too bad in my mind.
David Lough- Lough had the best season among the '08 Bees players. David's knowledge and talent on the field continues to grow after playing 3 sports in college. Lough like many Royals minor leaguers is about as patient as a fat kid standing in front of a buffet with his 5% walk ratio last season but it didn't stop him from putting up impressive stats in '09 .336/.383/.513. Lough might be able to pitch in a bit in centerfield but is probably going to repeat '10 in AA so anything short of a repeat of '09 will make it difficult for him to contribute this season.
Scott Thorman- I'm surprised this guy hasn't got more run on this site. While I don't think this is the correct move it wouldn't shock me at all if GMDM gave Thorman a shot to beat out Ka'aihue for a roster opportunity. Thorman is a former draftpick of GMDMs. He is a lefty has a little pop and about as much patience as you expect any GMDM draftpick to have 4.4% BB% over his minor league career. Thorman outhit Kila when he arrived in Omaha last season .295/.344/.495 19 HR oh and did I mention he is also lefthanded. Thorman actually has more consistent numbers over his minor league career than Kila does but he also doesn't provide the on base skills or mid level to high ceiling dreams that Kila could provide. Probably just a remake of Jacobs with less light tower power.
If KC doesn't sign anyone else prior to the season a Thorman/Kila competition for the lefthanded DH duties wouldn't suprise me at all.
Pitchers
Carlos Rosa- The hard throwing righty had a tough season when one looks at the old school stats 2-8 with a 4.58 ERA. Thankfully d_f and friends have taught us that old school stats are weak and offer little meaning when one looks beneath the surface Rosa put up a decent season in a very hitter friendly league. Rosa's 3.44 FIP with a 10.14 K/9 were quite impressive and his surface stats were more the result of his .344 babip and career high 4.06 bb/9 than anything. Rosa is likely the clubhouse leader for biggest contributor in 2010 and should be a lock to be on the opening day roster. The hard throwing righty will hopefully develop into a solid 7th or 8th inning option for Trey this season.
Chris Hayes- Everyones favorite Hayes is too smart for this organization and probably has little to no chance of actually getting an opportunity. Hayes once again put together a solid '09 campaign with a 3.43 FIP in 89 innings of ball. His surface stats(4.59 ERA) were somewhat poor in Omaha due to a career high .367 Babip. Chris would make a great right specialist but considering Trey doesn't know how to use a LOOGY he definitely wouldn't know how to use a groundball inducing reliever out of the pen. GMDM might as well trade Hayes to Seattle or Oakland now and save us all the grief that we will endure as he improves his numbers in Omaha as we watch captain Farnrun give up some of the few leads our beloved team has.
Louis Coleman- The '09 draftee had a pretty decent start to his career putting up a 2.17 cumulative FIP in 23.0 IP at A and A+ last season. Coleman put up a 9.00 k/9 versus a 1.96 BB/9 in his two stops. Probably considered a longshot with his limited minor league time Louis should be given a trip to major league camp and who knows what could happen after that. A former LSU starter the 24 year old (April 4) hasn't averaged under 9.5 K/9 since his freshman year. Coleman shouldn't take too long to make it to the pros if they are going to leave him in that bullpen roll.
Sorry if this list has already been made or I didn't offer enough info. As one can see KC doesn't have a whole lot of contributions from high level minor leaguers.
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Ya he and Parraz both could
they had pretty high BABIP seasons.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
high BABIP at the minor league level is a skill
it indicates the player hit the ball hard
baseball rules.
The bigger question mark
Is why his (and Lough’s, and Bianchi’s) LD rates all sky rocketed in Arkansas over anything else they have done. I suspect they just do a pretty liberal reading of batted balls down there (in which case the high BABIP is mostly luck), but if they are accurate, then those rates are going to come tumbling down at some point, and their BABIP, average and power will come right back down with them.
by kcbottom9th on Dec 21, 2009 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
One helpful thing to do
and you probably already know this, but you can go to www.minorleaguesplits.com and neutralize a player’s stats for “luck,” e.g., BABIP rates vs. line drive, groundball, and flyball rates
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 21, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions
I'm trying to remember how Arvest Ballpark is setup.
The press boxes are fairly high for a minor league park aren’t they?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
I see none of these guys making any sort of positive impact on our big-league club next year
….or anyone else, really, for that matter. Especially since they surely won’t be given the shot.
None? You don't think Rosa will be given a shot?
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I don't see him contributing positively at the MLB level
Yes, he has been slow to adjust to each level. But I think he’s a victim of having flat, hard pitches. Unfortunately, even Kyle Farnsworth can translate that to big-league mediocrity. Rosa seems like an extremely poor man’s Farnsworth. I do think he’ll be given a shot, though, but – remember – he’s young! Farnsworth is proven.
by Royals Nation on Dec 22, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
Had to think about this one
But, how sad it is that a organization like the Royals did not have a guy make his debut til Hughes and Marte in September (i suppose both could have been on here)
and we will be going into ST w/out any rookies that could actually break camp and have a significant impact on this team
"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."
That's Glass's fault
gave Baird no draft budget or development power. If Baird was given GMDMs draft and development pocketbook then I think we might be in decent shape. That is partially Baird’s fault for not selling it harder when he had the job though. GMDM obviously sold Glass on that hard when he got the job and Glass has fulfilled his end of the bargain poneying up lots of cash.
Unfortunately we have what I consider a pretty good pitching scouting system combined with a pretty poor hitting scouts. I don’t know what the stats are but I would have to think KC has the most impatient group of hitters in the minors. Aside from Giavotella, Kila and Hosmer KC prospects have little to no patience combine that with very poor low minor league hitting venues (Burlington Midwest League/Wilmington Carolina League) that could lead to poor development minor league development.
I hope Moustakas takes a step forward this season but I just can’t see it with how impatient he is at the plate. He is still very young and hopefully playing in a hitter friendly league like the Texas League will help him rebound but I’m very skeptical. On the plus side his defensive numbers look pretty positive.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
It's also a mark against GMDM.
He’s been around long enough to have some guys in AAA who should be able to break into the league. For all of Moore’s work in the draft, he’s done a poor job of acquiring talent in any other way.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Unless Hochevar has a good outing
And then he did 2006 too.
by kcbottom9th on Dec 20, 2009 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He has backed away from the Hoch pick
also some are now passing the rumor that the Ladnier got fired because he picked Moose over Wieters.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Um
“for all of Moore’s work in the draft, he’s done a poor job of acquiring talent in any other way”
I gave him credit for his drafts. He does poorly acquiring talent outside of the draft. If he would have been trading for AA/AAA guys, the Omaha roster and the Royals organization as a whole would be much better off than it is now.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Kila and Thorman
The DH market is coming along very very slowly and KC could be able to snag a pretty decent DH for not a whole lot. Guys like Branyan, Thome, Dye, Guerrero, Cust and Damon all still out there and could be had decently cheap 2-5M/1, if KC could get any of them to sign. They would probably all be an upgrade over Kila or Thorman. While the money is much more(5M v. 500K) the liklihood of production is probably worth the money in GMDMs eyes.
DDJ
Alberto
BamBam
Cust/Dye/Thome, etc.
Gordon
A decent Top 5 of the order compared to what they have offered up in the past.
6-9 pretty UGH
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
No! Why not let Kila go and see what happens?
Especially when saving 4-5 million dollars a year.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
I agree with you
but with GMDM apparent dislike of Kila I would think this would be his line of thought. Hopefully I am wrong.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I can't see Moore trying to find a DH this offseason.
I’m guessing he’ll try to fix that problem with either A) Guillen B) Callaspo or C) Gordon moving to 1st.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
I think Kila would likely help the most.
But Rosas the only one I see getting a shot.
Can anyone even think of someone other than Aviles whose been given a shot at the majors outside of September?
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
to say that Aviles actually got a shot
isn’t quite right. I mean, we suffered through a LOT of TPJ before Dayton couldn’t ignore Aviles any longer. His game of pretending Aviles didn’t exist lasted a daaamn long time, though.
WTF, self?
good thing that game's over
D’oh
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 20, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly
I think only Rosa on that list gets more than a month of MLB time. And only he, Kila and maybe Parraz see any time at all.
We need to see what we have with Hoagy and Gathwhite
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 20, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
None of them
To many gritty veterans on the ML squad. If too many injuries hit, we will trade Kila for Eckstein or Taveras
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
no bianchi option?
although he’s blocked by all of our “talent” up the middle and needs to prove himself in AAA, he probably won’t do better than a september call-up.
I was looking for Bianchi, too
I think Bianchi will make a bigger impact than all of these guys, but he’s not likely to get a shot before September unless something big happens.
For the past 17-18 months, all I’ve wanted from DM is to give Kila a shot at the majors for more than a few weeks. I’m not a baseball scout so I have no clue what more Kila needs to do to earn a shot. I thought for sure Thorman would have got a chance in 09 with Guillen being hurt so often. Thorman put up some decent numbers in 09 and one would think deserved at least a call up for a few weeks. I don’t know, but I’d have to guess that if these guys didn’t get a shot when they were playing well, were still fairly young and the Royals were terrible, they probably won’t get a chance in ’10.
Anyway, DM would prefer a mid-30’s has been over any of the young guys in this list, so we most likely won’t see any of them before September, unless they are playing for a team other than the Royals.
I think Bianchi will repeat AA
and would have to really tear off a very good season to have any chance at playing time prior to September. He is blocked at SS by Yuni, Aviles and Bloomquist not to mention Callaspo and Getz at 2b. Bianchis season was pretty fluky considering his .377 BABIP even though he reached a career high in LD%. I doubt he can duplicate those figures so unless he cuts down his K% and draws a larger number of walks he could go back to struggling. His defense however was decent at SS and that is a positive sign.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
And there's no reason to rush him
He’s no superstar waiting to happen, but it’s still worth doing this one right
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 20, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
I'm of the same opinion as others
If given a full-time 1B slot somewhere, Kila could be a 1 or even 1.5 WAR player. Even as a full-time DH in KC, he could be 0.5 to 1, which isn’t great, but for the minimum in a rebuilding year… But I don’t see it happening.
Rosa it is. He’s probably a 0.5 WAR reliever, or 0.5-1 w/ leverage, if they let him set up. He’s probably the best reliever in the org right now outside of Soria. Well, Tejeda is probably as good or better if you count him as a reliever. Tejeda/Rosa/Soria would be a nice way to close out the 50 or so games a year the team actually needs a “closer.”
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I'm kinda of the same mind
I voted for Kila b/c I think he could have the greatest impact IF GIVEN THE CHANCE but truly Rosa is probably going to have the most opportunity.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 20, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Ideally, they would both have prominent roles heading into ST
but I suspect there will be a substantial gap between ideal and reality this March
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 20, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
It's frustrating seeing younger guys who could possibly help being left out.
I don’t understand why Kila isn’t going to get a chance; does Moore have a personal vendetta or afraid of mispronouncing or misspelling Ka’aihue. Maybe more dirt on the uniform and finding some extra grit would help.
best reliever in the org
Although I voted for Rosa (because it’s sorta obvious he is the only guy on the list who is “ready”, and whose skills have not been written off due to “slider bat speed”), I really believe Coleman will have a much better major league career than Rosa. It’s just that I doubt they would be comfortable seeing him go from A+ all the way to the majors in one season. I would hope they would entertain the idea of letting him start this season in AA – he is 24, has college experience that is arguably far more challenging than the typical college player, and had an extra year of college experience to boot.
I fully expect Coleman to be an integral part of the bullpen the next time the Royals actually contend for the playoffs.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
I'll Take A
Black cat bone to the cemetery at midnight on a full moon; the kid will have mojo.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 21, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
I went with Rosa simple because he'll probably be the only one that gets a chance.
That being said, I have heard from a lot of people that Rosa has some very good pitches and they don’t understand why he gives up so many baserunners.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
terrible defense behind him?
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 20, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
Voted for Rosa based for several reasons
1. I believe he is out of options so he has the best chance to make the team out of ST.
2. The bullpen spots are open to anyone who can get batters out.
3. Rosa has the most upper level experience which will help him.
4. The resistance to bring up minor leaguers and give them a shot will hurt Parraz, Lough, and Bianchi the most. Kila didn’t even get a shot at end of last year. Why would we think he’ll get one in 2010? I don’t think Hayes would be the first reliever called up from Omaha based on the NRI signings in offseason. KC has signed Bullington, Bostick, Rosario and a host of other retreads.
Those MLEs for Kila
are unacceptable at the major league level for a 1B or a DH. Now, I’m not a huge fan of MLEs, I suspect they’re calculated out of aggregate numbers—some guys’ stats translate very posively after the jump, others don’t. But Kila has some more provin’ to do, in my humble opinion. I love that he walks. And I love that monster ‘08 season. But what happened last year? I’d much rather have Callaspo as DH, who SLUGS a lot better than Kila at this point. A 2B should not be outslugging your DH.
*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"
by jackie ballgame on Dec 21, 2009 7:35 PM EST reply actions
What happened last year?
How about “what didn’t happen last year?” He didn’t get called up and we traded for Mike Jacobs. How’s that for deflating? Do everything they ask you to and more, and still not be given a shot. He probably went up there trying to hit a homerun every time thinking, “I’ll show those bastards!” Pressing usually doesn’t lead to good things. On the bright side, he maintained his walk rate. I think he should get a shot at DH, and 1B on Billy’s off days/DH days. I mean, who would you rather give ABs to at DH? Guillen or Kila?
2010 Should Be
The year to find out what the AAA guys have. If they suck, it will be marginally worse than anything GMDM could cobble from the MLB scrap heap and FA signings if not better.. One thing about Royals fans, they have strong stomachs for suckitude. We just want to see some winning eventually.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 22, 2009 2:33 AM EST up reply actions
At least if we're gonna suck
we should have a sucky payroll. I don’t mind watching a team of young players making “low” salaries losing a lot of games. At least they’re from our organization, they’re trying, and they’re getting the experience they’re going to need if they’re going to get better.
What I cannot stand is a team of overpaid hacks playing out the string that loses a lot of games.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
.210/.321/.348.
Sure, that’s better than what Jacobs did. I just don’t see pounding the drum for the guy to get called up with projected numbers like this. Unless you think these MLEs (or MLEs in general) aren’t good predictors, which is entirely possible. Even if they’re off by, say, .50 points for SLG, I’m not going to get fired up for a DH who doesn’t slug better than .400 (or, if he doesn’t hit the ball hard, doesn’t on-base at least .360). I’m not saying Kila’s cooked, I’m really intrigued by him, but I’m not shouting for him to become our DH until he shows me a little 2008 first.
*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"
by jackie ballgame on Dec 22, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Although CHONE projects him as .245/.357/.396
ZiPS at: .255/.350/.403
Both of those have him comfortably amongst the best on the team.
Who knows? maybe the projections over sell him, but I think the MLE’s undersell him.
I guess the important thing is, does it hurt to find out? No.
by kcbottom9th on Dec 22, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
I think the MLE's definitely undersell people
I have yet to see one that makes me think any AAA player could be in MLB.
jackie – one thing to keep in mind is that he’s fully back from an injury starting with 2008, so that could be affecting his MLE. i don’t know if they use just the most recent 500 or 1000 PAs or if they use the entire career, but if they use 1000+ and we believe (the truth is out there) that he really is a better player now that his knee is healthy, then we can have some optimism that his MLE is understating his true ability.
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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 22, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
MLE's would generally be expected to "oversell" people
because they are are based on player who pay on multiple levels, which, in the case of the majors, means that there is a problem of selection bias. People are aware of this when using them in projections, it’s just something that has to be accepted for now
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 23, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know...
I see an MLE like .210 BA for Kila and I think there’s no way he could be that terrible, maybe he can.
228 .297 .401
That’s Jacobs’s 2009 line. Kila’s MLEs are very comparable to what Jacobs did, and yes, I do think Kila can outperform those numbers. Kila is also much cheaper. We definitely aren’t winning anything this year, so let’s see what he has. If he can just bat .240 and keep the same OBP split, that would give him a .351 OBP which would rank amongst the best on the team.
I wrote a post a while ago that Kila should have been either
promoted or traded after the monster ‘08 season. keeping him did us no good, as he’s now lost his trade value.
*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"
by jackie ballgame on Dec 21, 2009 7:36 PM EST reply actions
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