Royals Review Community Prospect List: #9
by nwroyal on Dec 28, 2009 9:41 AM EST
in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues
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PrintThe last vote was, indeed, a close one. Noel Arguelles edged Jeff Bianchi 40% to 38%. Now we move on to Prospect #9. I've added Jordan Parraz and Kila Kaaihue since somebody asked for him in the last poll.
As before, the choices are listed alphabetically and you can make your case in the comment section.
#1--Mike Montgomery--LHP--36%
#2--Mike Moustakas--3B--36%
#3--Aaron Crow--RHP--45%
#4--Eric Hosmer--1B--44%
#5--Will Myers--C--43%
#6--Dan Duffy--LHP--51%
#7--Tim Melville--RHP--52%
#8--Noel Arguelles--LHP--40%
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Where's Dyson?
In his absence, I voted for Jeff Bianchi, the next Brian Roberts.
The next Chris Getz
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 28, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Bianchi too....
He looks to be the best chance to see a prospect at Kaufman in the near future. But, I could be wrong….
Clearly Bianchi...
& he is to low on this list!! Gopher you either can’t read or you just aren’t that funny!! Here’s to being the guy who only makes himself laugh!!
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 28, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions
He also makes me laugh
as do many others
although Gopherballs does so intentionally
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 28, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
d_f u r in the same...
boat!! I skip u r post bc they never offer anything & never accomplish what they intead to which I always assumed was to be clever or merely funny.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 28, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
sorry to hear that you feel that way
but I’m still glad that Jarrod Dyson’s agent took time out from collecting bounties to post on this blog.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 29, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
hmm....d_f never offers anything on this website?
you’re new, maybe you should peruse the archives
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 29, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
bbb...
no need to do research on other blog members. I’m just going off my observations during my short, time-period membership. If you have been impressed by his sincere additions to this blog then I hope I will observe the same. I’m for having fun & will give & take w/ anyone on here, but misrepresenting and/or mocking opinions accomplishes nothing.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 5:20 AM EST up reply actions
oh....he's half mocking people....
and the other half writing some kick ass shit….but that puts him 50% ahead of most of us on this board…..
read when he posts…or go read his stuff on fangraphs.com
its good stuff
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 2, 2010 7:50 AM EST up reply actions
Gopher & u can..
& will continue bc it simply just doesn’t matter.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 28, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
PRS, You Don't
Matter. Neither do I, but I’m at least polite. I absorb the zeitgeist of this site without understanding the arcane statistical findings, and I’m fine with that. This a fantastic internet community, and I’m happy to hang onto the periphery hereof.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 30, 2009 4:07 AM EST up reply actions
Not sure..
how I was being rude?! I was saying it doesn’t matter to me if they choose to mock my opinions that they disagree w/. I was intending to tell them to feel free to continue. Not sure if you fully understand where this convo was started?! In short, they were continuing a jab from another post on a opinion of mine. One could say that is rude of them, but I was not do that either way I’m not offended. I hope this explanation clears the matter up.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 30, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
Actually I think the confusion stems from your confusing post of:
Gopher & u can.. & will continue bc it simply just doesn’t matter.
I had no idea what you were saying there til you cleared it up.
And also
d_f u r in the same… boat!! I skip u r post bc they never offer anything & never accomplish what they intead to which I always assumed was to be clever or merely funny.
That’s plainly false.
Ax...
On your 1st point, I said “CAN” as in feel free,permission, ect… & added “WILL” as in I expect them to. Lastly, I didn’t say “THEY” as in the persons don’t matter. I said “IT” as in their mocking actions don’t matter.
On your second point, the only thing I can see that is “plainly false” about my statement is that I used an absolute word by using “never”. So replace the word never in my second statement w/ rarely & it becomes an accurate statement of opinion. Now you can disagree w/ that opinion but it doesn’t make it "plainly false.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 4:33 AM EST up reply actions
Okay. Let me drop some knowledge on you.
d_f hasn’t posted a lot since you got here because he now writes for one of the best sabermetrically oriented sites on the internet at www.fangraphs.com, under the pseudnym Matt K. He also used to post a bunch of articles at www.drivelinemechanics.com not to mention here. A quick check of his profile page shows 381 Fanposts/Fanshots posted over the last 21 months. That’s 1.65 per day. Not too shabby.
That makes it “plainly false”.
Ax...
read my post above to bbb. Its several spots above if you want the whole convo.
“bbb… no need to do research on other blog members. I’m just going off my observations during my short, time-period membership. If you have been impressed by his sincere additions to this blog then I hope I will observe the same. I’m for having fun & will give & take w/ anyone on here, but misrepresenting and/or mocking opinions accomplishes nothing.”
Nothing you just posted matters or is relevant to me. I just learned your a fan of d_fingers. Thanks for sharing moving on now this is pointless.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Trying it out.
.bq bbb… no need to do research on other blog members. I’m just going off my observations during my short, time-period membership. If you have been impressed by his sincere additions to this blog then I hope I will observe the same. I’m for having fun & will give & take w/ anyone on here, but misrepresenting and/or mocking opinions accomplishes nothing.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
I'm trying not to make this personal, just letting you know what you're up against.
But you sound kind of dumb when you refuse to acknowledge respected members of our community.
I'm not taking...
anything personal Its just exhausting at this point to be still talking about it. I wasn’t trying to insult anyone, I was merely making the point about misrepresenting & mocking opinions that you disagree w/. I don’t believe bc d_f is a “saber-genius” means that his callous-spirited debate is justified.
I made the Dyson / CF Prospect Argument over in the “Royals Top Prospects: Overview” it was misrepresented & mocked by Gopher who was egged on by d_f. I thought it was done in the last post, but it was carried over here by Gopher.
On another note, I’m not a born again-saber believer. I believe Saber-metrics has its place in evaluations, but don’t recognize it as the be all to end all. I’m close to the middle between stats & scouting reports & both have their limitations. I’ll make all of d_f’s fans a promise if I have a saber-metric question I’ll seek d_f’s opinion. So what should I know about Gopher?
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
That was a joke &...
retorical question about Gopher. I’ll put one of these ;o) so I don’t rub anyone the wrong way.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
How...
do you guys quote statements in a gray box??
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 4:53 AM EST up reply actions
Trying it out again...
".bq"bbb… no need to do research on other blog members. I’m just going off my observations during my short, time-period membership. If you have been impressed by his sincere additions to this blog then I hope I will observe the same. I’m for having fun & will give & take w/ anyone on here, but misrepresenting and/or mocking opinions accomplishes nothing.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
again...
“.bq” bbb… no need to do research on other blog members. I’m just going off my observations during my short, time-period membership. If you have been impressed by his sincere additions to this blog then I hope I will observe the same. I’m for having fun & will give & take w/ anyone on here, but misrepresenting and/or mocking opinions accomplishes nothing.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry...
for wasting space, I’m doing something wrong.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
At the very bottom of the page, it says "Show Formatting Guide"
click that, and it gives you the rules.
And sorry about that, I just realized I had it backwards myself. It’s “bq.” not “.bq”. Sorry.
Highlight The Quote
And click the quotation mark in the menu below the header. It seems pretty reliable.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 31, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
Soooo.... how long have those buttons been there?
I don’t think I’ve ever noticed them til now. I do it all by my own coding.
They Were There
A long time before I noticed them.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 31, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
I am mildly amazed...
that because Bianchi suddenly had one good year after a series of really shitty ones that he now ranks as a better prospect than Kila, despite Kila having a proven and extensive track record of success in every level of the minor leagues.
Bianchi started off really good
and then went crappy because of injury, IIRC. Plus he plays SS, or at least something more valuable than Kila’s 1B/DH. Bianchi is the better prospect, and I love Kila and wish he’d get a shot.
I'm w/ u...
Ax on your assessment.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 29, 2009 2:11 AM EST up reply actions
Bianchi plays a far more valuable defensive position than Kila
…whether Bianchi is at SS or 2B. I don’t know off the top of my head what his defensive metrics look like, but for the purposes of this discussion, I’ll readily spot you that Bianchi is more valuable defensively than Kila.
I’ll also concede that Bianchi hits for a good amount of power for a middle infielder. Bianchi’s earlier .442 SLG in a pitcher’s park and league like Wilmington and the Carolina league is nice no matter how you cut it.
What I am hoping that this year is demonstrating…and what was lacking in Bianchi’s previous two full years of MiLB ball…is that he is finally learning plate discipline. He strikes out a ton, always has and probably always will, but his career OBP in 2007-2008 was a Yuni-esque .293. As far as plate discipline goes, he is still light years behind Kila (or where Kila was at that point in his career). Even in 2009, which people are characterizing as a down year for Kila, he still OBPed a preposterous .392 despite only hitting .252. Bianchi just turned 23 and is starting to get to the age where he needs to be evaluated on stats, not just tools. If he starts out 2010 strong, I’ll be convinced. But for the moment, I think he needs to show that 2009 wasn’t a fluke before he earns top-9 prospect status.
I am evaluating on stats
2007 and 2008 were terrible. He also played in Wilmington and Burlington. His OBP since 2007 is about 40-50 points above BA. His OBP skills really haven’t changed. It was his hitting in 2007-8 that was terrible. One of those years he played in Wilmington which is notoriously bad for hitters, and I didn’t think that Burlington was that great either, but this link seems to sy it was average (though there are 2 Burlington’s in our system and only 1 Burlington listed): http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_minor_league_park_multipliers/
I don’t know if he’s going to pan out, but a SS that can OPS above .700 in MLB would be a huge improvement for us, he gets my vote because I think it’s possible for him to go higher than that.
Bianchi's OBP
…actually took a step backwards in 2008 vis-a-vis 2007, while his BA improved slightly and his SLG took a big step forward.
2007: .247/.296/.315
2008: .255/.290/.442
2009: .308/.358/.435
The difference between his 2008 BA and OBP is only 35 points (which, granted, isn’t quite Betancourt-like, but is pretty close…more like Olivo-like).
All of this is just to say…look, I think it is great that Bianchi had an awesome year and I hope he keeps it up, but this was his first good all-around year since Rookie ball, and in comparing one good year to Kila’s track record, I don’t think Bianchi is the better prospect yet. He definitely could be in the future, but he isn’t there yet.
He battled injuries...
in 2006-2008 which you aren’t giving enough attention to. Kila is a DH which you aren’t giving enough attention to as well.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 29, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Kila is not only a DH
You are simply wrong. His 2008 defense was poor, but prior to that, he was generally good for being between +2 to +7 runs with his glove according to Sean Smith’s TotalZone, and was a neutral 0 in 2009 (link here: http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=451500). Kila might not be the second coming of Doug Mientkeiwixzztctqz with the glove, but his defense at first base is not much of a concern.
Re: Bianchi being injured…sorry, but that just kind of comes with the territory. Hosmer sucked this year in part because of physical maladies beyond his control (ie, his eyesight), and folks are still more down on him than they were a year ago.
I rely...
more on scouting reports for defense than stats which the scouting reports haven’t been as kind to Kila as the still developing defensive stat systems.
Bianchi deservingly has the injury label holding over his head & that is the major reason he is at the back end of the top 10. Presumably if Bianchi would have stayed healthy it is fair to expect that his rookie ball success would have carried through the minors. This theory is somewhat supported by his A_adv & AA stats of 09 when finally healthy again.
A yr ago Hosmer only had 11ABs so I’m not sure where the connection is.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 29, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
Oh..
I reread your point on Hosmer, I get it. Simply, folks have a right to be down on Hosmer but I think the consensus is lets wait a yr and see. Before 09, I believe most ppl gave up on Bianchi bc it had been 3yrs, but the 09 results rekindled the once expectations & potential.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 29, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
I say this firmly tongue-in-cheek...
…so please don’t take this too badly :)
but with your reliance on scouting reports over defensive stats, have you considered applying for a job in the Royals front office?
Sure, Bianchi probably wouldn’t have sucked so bad in 2007 if he weren’t injured, but either way, one good year doesn’t wipe away a couple of mediocre ones. I’m of the mind of Bianchi as you are w/ Hosmer (lets wait a year and see—if Bianchi shows 09 wasn’t a fluke, that this is what he is really capable of, I will be cheering for him as much as anyone here…but if he gets injured again, that will a very different outcome).
I think we can all agree with that
but I also think that based upon that potential that he showed this year, that bumping him into the top 10 for prospects isn’t out of the question. It’s not like the Royals system is so full of talent that there’s no room for a SS like Bianchi in the Top 10. There’s plenty of room for debate over where the guys at #6 to #15 fall. For example, Fangraphs has Kila at #6 and Bianchi at #8, while The Hardball Times has neither in the top 10 and has Johnny G, Lamb, and Dwyer at 8, 9, and 10.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kansas-city-royals-top-10-prospects/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-10-prospects-for-2010-toronto-blue-jays-and-kansas-city-royals/
Darth...
no insult taken & its a fair jest. I hesitatingly agree w/ Royals brass on this opinion about defensive stats. However, I take Offensive stats seriously. In fact, I disagree w/ the same brass about OBP bc I think a high OBP is a good thing.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 30, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
i think the key difference
in how we’re looking at these numbers is you’re looking at 2007-2009 and seeing 2009 as his only good year of the 3, and then concluding that 2009 was likely a fluke. i look at his minor league track record, and think that his reputation pre-draft was that he was a guy who would hit for average. he then came into rookie ball and hit .400, dipped to .250 for 2007/2008, and bumped back up to .308 last year between high-A and AA ball. it’s also worth noting that he was struggling with injuries through his down years. so what’s his true skill level for batting average? let’s average 2008 and 2009 and call it .280. if you plug in a .280 average for 2008 and 2009, you get a guy who hit .280/315/467 and .280/330/407 in back to back years primarily in pitching parks. a shortstop that hits like that is a definite prospect.
A lot of writers put Dwyer around here
But I can’t stand putting prospects so high on the list without having played an inning of professional ball unless they were drafted in the first round. Bianchi it is. I considered Lamb too though. Might have thought harder about Lough if he could hit lefties.
*You think I'm good* "You know, that Farnsworth is pretty good." *You will give me 9 million dollars* "So, Farnsy, how does $9 million sound?"
by jackie ballgame on Dec 29, 2009 12:09 PM EST reply actions
dwyer has played some
i want to say he had around ten innings this year with great strikeout/terrible walk numbers. i’m not a big dwyer fan. i’m not sure he can put it all together, but at least he has a lot to work with.
I'm not...
high on Dwyer @ all! He didn’t have great college #s even though he was a freshman. Now he comes to us as a 21yr old rookie w/o significant college experience which makes his age a negative not a positive. It seems he may have lost valuable development time which will cause him to land in the bullpen. All things considered, he might not belong even in the top 20!
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 29, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
bianchi....finally
I’ve been voting for Bianchi since #5.
I agree...
I’ve been voting since #6.
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 29, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure
I would rank Lough, Dwyer, and Lamb (esp) above Bianchi
Jeff is A great guy…but, I think he is one guy that will disappoint us at the big league level…I hope I am wrong
"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."
Y'all forgot about Lough.
Seriously, where’s the love?
He is interesting but right now he fits more into the Shane Costa tweener mold
He reportedly does not have enough range to play CF, he has been brutal against LHP, and he has not shown the power and plate discipline to project as a good enough hitter to be a starter in a corner outfield slot. Hitters who project as platoon/fourth outfielder types do not get ranked very high.
If he continues to improve this year, he will move up in the rankings next year.
by Gopherballs on Dec 30, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
just what we need.....
another shane costa/mitch maier
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 2, 2010 7:57 AM EST up reply actions
I think we have a monopoly on those types of players
In fact, I think it started with Carlos Beltran and our failed cloning techniques of which DDJ was our biggest success. Apparently Royal Scientists found that every time you make a copy it degrades too much. Eventually we’ll have Mitch/Costa clones that can’t even play the outfield, but Dayton will buy them all giant tool bags filled with high quality tools, just so he can say that he likes their tools.
Lough's stats against LHP...
is very alarming!! I hope he norrow’s that gap this yr!!
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 30, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
I am not a big Bianchi fan at all
I don’t think he can stick at SS, I think he may very likely be a one-year wonder, he never walks…but he seems like an obvious choice here.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Also
I’d say there’s a pretty big gap between our top 8 on the list and everyone else.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
John Lamb
Isn’t getting enough play. Great K/9 and K/BB. This was his first year back since his broken elbow suffered in a car accident so I expect next year to be much better. He’ll probably put a couple extra MPH on his velo as his body finishes maturing and with his already +change, I think we’re selling Lamb’s potential short.
Also
He’ll be 19 next year and probably in Burlington. Not exactly old for his level
I like Lamb
But we’re talking one solid, not outstanding year, and a kid with an injury history (a freak injury granted, but still we don’t know if this will linger). Sure he has potential, we just don’t have a lot to go on thus far.
I think he’s definitely a guy to keep an eye for, and one of our best candidates to jump from C prospect to B+ prospect in one year.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
FWIW
Baseball America’s Jim Callis revealed he had Mike Montgomery as his #27 overall prospect and Aaron Crow at #31 in a chat session today.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Is that the kiss of death...
or great news bc I hope they don’t become Moose & Hos of last yrs rankings! ;o) Also, I’m not real high on Crow, but everybody in “Royals Nation” seems very excited about this kid.
I dislike the time off in-between real competition, the reviews of his delivery mechanics, the Luke Hochevar career path, & his 3yr major league contract! I don’t completely understand the contract other than 3mil guar & 1.5mil incent then arb starts after that…maybe? Does he have options to go back to minors if he struggles once in the league?
Where am I going wrong?
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 4:48 AM EST up reply actions
He can still start in the minors because he has 3 option years.
So we don’t have to play him in the majors at all until 2013.
Go Royals!
Thanks...
that is helpful. One clarification, so we can move Crow in-between MLB & minors as often as we want over the next 3yrs?
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 31, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
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