Why Using 2009 Results to Predict 2010 Does Not Work, or Yes, Yuniesky Betancourt Can Only Get Better

That part of his plan worked pretty well, but it was not enough to set off his other catastrophic moves.

It can also lead to fielder platoons, like when the Red Sox used Pokey Reese as Derek Lowe’s designated 2B.

Really, groundballers are almost always a good idea. Even with bad infield defense like a certain team we know and love, allowing a higher percentage of groundball singles is still better than the extra bases given up by the extra fly balls.

“who are each very good defensively” should be replaced with the phrase “who each have good lateral movement”.

Maybe a better way to put it is things outside his control largely contributed to his poor results — and for many of those things, he is due some positive regression.

The defense behind him, especially the infield defense, was terrible and particularly hurt a pitcher like Hochevar who generates a good number of groundballs. The poor defense helps explain his high 326 BABIP — with an excellent line drive percentage of 17.6% (one of the better in the league), his expected BABIP should have been just under 300. We also know that BABIP tends to regress around 300. He also was unlucky with the rate at which he gave up home runs on fly balls. We know from studies that while pitchers can control the number of home runs they allow overall by inducing groundballs instead of flyballs and generating strikeouts, pitchers have little control over the rate at which flyballs turn into home runs. Like BABIP, home run per fly ball rates have been shown to regress to around 10-11%. Hochevar’s HR/FB rate last year was 13.8%, so again, that rate should regress toward 10-11%.

Hochevar also had an unsustainably low left on base percentage — average is around 70% and most pitchers regress to the 65-75% range. Hochevar’s rate last year was 59.3% — one of the worst in baseball. Some of it is definitely Hochevar’s fault in giving up well hit balls with runners on base, but a good part of it is the defense, the bad luck, and the quality of the reliever entering the game after him. A 5% improvement in LOB% rate would make a big difference.

This is not to say Hochevar is suddenly going to turn into a great pitcher — he probably will not, and even with some positive regression, he may only be a decent fourth starter type. He certainly has work to do, especially with runners on base — again some of it can be attributed to bad luck and defense, but he does seem to turn into a different pitcher in pressure situations. But the point is that Hochever performed much better last year than his ERA indicated and is a good bet to show better results this year even if his performance does not improve all that much.