Granderson to NY, can the Royals land Cabrera?
by Peterman700 on Dec 8, 2009 3:31 PM EST
57 comments
Now that the Spanks have pillaged one of the best outfielders in baseball, can the Royals make a play for Cabrera?
Would the Royals consider such a move?
There is no doubt that Melky Cabrera would be a nice upgrade in just about every aspect of the game for Kansas City, giving them a solid everyday, high end defensive center fielder, and Cabrera earns a reasonable salary.
In context, a lineup with Cabrera, Dejesus and Butler at the top of the order would be vastly more productive. The Royals need speed, and defense, what do you guys think?
The Yanks will likely want pitching, and the Royals sure have a lot of that right now.
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In 2900+ innings in CF
Melky is -5.9 runs per 150 games in CF
I’d rather have Gardner
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Me too
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by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 8, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
and almost as important
Cabrera already has three plus years of service time and is entering his second year of arbitration (he was a Super Two last year). He is under club control for three more years, but all of them are arbitratrion years (and the last two will not be limited by service time comparisons).
Gardner has one year of service time, so he is under club control for five more years and will not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2011 season.
Yeah, but I was too lazy to put that down
Random side not: how much do you think Ryan Church would get in arb?
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 8, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
$3 million or maybe a little above that
He made $2.8 million last year, but due to injuries, his playing time was down in both 2008 and 2009 (the two relevant years) and his traditional numbers were not great. His service time and the fact that outfielders generally get paid well are his arbitration case’s only real positives, so any raise would be modest.
He'd be a good target
DDJ-Gardner-Church would actuallly be a decent outfield
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 8, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm....
a RHH would be nice, although I think Jeff Fiorentino is a superior player to Murton overall
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 8, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
It's too bad that I'm pretty sure Peterman700 and Dayton Moore share similar sentiments
Whereas Jack Z would go after Brett Gardner who is completely undervalued, our front office wants to go with Melky. I want Gardner, Melky not so much.
yeah, that's why we're talking about it
if a team trades for him, they’ll have to decide whether or not to go to arb with him
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 8, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, that makes sense
So a team would pretty much need to be willing to offer him arbitration if they traded for him right? Also, what are the odds that no one trades for him and he is released?
I have no idea
Depends on what teams need and what the Braves want. They have very little leverage. If he’s really only going to get a bit more than $3m in arb, I’d say a team with a hole in the OF would jump on it for a AA reliever type or something — maybe less. But times are tough out there, maybe he’ll end up being released.
Personally, I’d rather have Kelly Johnson because of age, upside, and versatility, but the Royals could do a lot worse than having Ryan Church as their primary RF in 2009. His offense isn’t what it was, but he’s a good defender. His health has been up and down but (and I might post on this later at FanGraphs) I still think he’s a 1.5 WAR player. Let me put it this way. He’s probably about as valuable as Rick Ankiel, maybe more.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 8, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely if we end up moving Callaspo
Man, if Baltimore would just be reasonable and take him for Pie, then we could have a DDJ-Pie-Church OF, with Johnson either starting at 2B or coming off the bench. All things considered, I’d be pretty happy with that.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 9, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
might be kinda expensive in arb
I doubt Church will make it through waivers, but we’ll see
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 9, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Last off-season was the time to make a move for Cabrera
2008’s offensive downturn was an anomaly for him, and the Yanks would have been more likely to sell low on him then.
That being said, yeah, the acquisition of Granderson (which amounted basically to highway robbery) does make Cabrera expendable, but we shouldn’t acquire him just because he is expendable. Gopherballs and d_f are right in that Gardner would be the preferable acquisition (also because Gardner would come much cheaper in trade), but as long as Melky’s defense doesn’t kill us in CF, he would represent a serious upgrade over the toolbags we were running out to CF last year after Crisp got injured. I can’t imagine Cabrera getting as much in arbitration as the $3 mil being bandied about as what teams would be willing to pay Crisp (due to Cabrera’s down year in 2008). I honestly wouldn’t be opposed to trading for him. The question is, who do we have and would be willing to part with whom the Yanks want?
If only we still had Jimmy Gobble as a trading chip
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I was thinking more along the lines of
giving them back Kyle Farnsworth.
What about Willie?
The Yankees could afford the most expensive utility infielder in baseball.
Melky vs. Brett
I like both of these guys.
However, the Yanks will likely be MORE inclined to trade Cabrera over Gardener.
I am just looking at this from a NEED standpoint, and Cabrera fills a huge void for the Royals. Is he perfect? No.
He’s pretty solid though considering he’s not even in his “prime years” yet.
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How can you say the Yankees are more inclined to trade Cabrera when
they played Cabrera over Gardner for the majority of the season?
Gardner: 108 GP, 284 PAs
Melky: 154 GP, 540 PAs
If more valuable means you play more often, than Cabrera seems to be more valuable to the Yankees. Cabrera’s never posted above a 100 OPS+ season. He had 99 in 2009. And while Gardner is admittedly not as good with the bat, he is better defensively.
I'm not sure who they'd rather move
but Gardner was getting most of the starts before he had a thumb injury that kept him out for a while, and Melky played well when Gardner was out so he stuck when Gardner came back.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 8, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
I think Cabrera would bring much more in trade than Gardner
…and if Gardner is better defensively, and comes cheaper (admittedly not really a concern for the Yankees), and is under club control for longer, then yeah, I can see why the Yanks would be more inclined to deal Cabrera. The Yankees are the one club that might actually be willing to pay $2 mil or so for a backup CFer, but there is no reason why they should.
I generally agree
The Royals really only have one league-average or better OFer (DDJ), and Cabrera would cost us a solid prospect in trade, but he is going to be fairly affordable for the next 2-3 years.
Cabrera isn’t the perfect answer, but I would be quite happy to have him patrolling CF for us on Opening Day next year. Or, really, to have anyone other than Scott Podsednik out there. We should get Gardner if we can, but if we can’t, Melky is a decent plan B.
Melky isn't the answer in CF, DDJ is likely better than him there.
Melky career in CF UZR: -13.5
Gardner career in CF UZR: 16.7
Is Melky’s bat worth 3 WAR by itself? Even if you go with just Melky’s most recent sample he’s just a 2.3 in UZR/150, while Gardner is 15.4 for UZR/150.
Gardner was 2.1 WAR in 2009, Melky was 1.6.
The Fan projections on Fangraphs have Melky at 1.5 WAR next year and Gardner at 2.7.
To me Gardner’s the clear cut choice, and even gives the Royals a legit leadoff man with speed that can steal bases.
or get a gift card to wal mart?
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by 306008 on Dec 9, 2009 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think we should just trade Guillen straight up
for Longoria. Guillen makes more money so obviously he is better.
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by averagegatsby on Dec 8, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
I like your reasoning
Have you ever thought of a career in statistical analysis for the Kansas City Royals?
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Speculation
I am just throwing out ideas guys.
It doesn’t have to be a big battle. I just like Cabrera, and it’s not like the Royals can make a play for a big name. They never do.
I figure Cabrera fills the need, with good speed, defense and switch hitting.
If someone has some better OF options, I am all ears.
I still like the Pagan and a hug for Guillen idea :)
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I just don't think Cabrera has much upside and will cost more than he's worth rather quickly.
WAR is a bit of a counting stat and Gardner >> Cabrera in a lot less playing time. So my pick is Gardner. If you really want to prove your point, you should probably try backing it up with stats. If the Yankees want to give us Cabrera for free and make us pay through the nose for Gardner, then the choice is less obvious, but I think they are both expendable to the Yanks, so the price shouldn’t be too high.
The Royals wouldn't care for Longoria
I heard he doesn’t have good lateral movement.
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 9, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
And his bat wouldn't translate to the vast outfield expanses of the K.
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what is Bannister's value on this team next year?
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Up in the air
I think I read in the catcher story in the Star that they want the veteran to help Hoch and Davies. With Zack, Meche, and the “necessary” LH starter we’ll overpay for and won’t be that good, my initial inclination is that Bannister is #6 in the minds of the front office right now.
Of course, if he’s still here, a month and a half into the season he’s the number 3 starter again.
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 9, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder if we could pull anything of value for him...
What’s our rotation this year looking like?
Ace Grienke
Meche
Hochevar
Davies
Bannister.
?
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I'd put Banny ahead of Davies for sure, maybe Hoch, too
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 9, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
Well, of course you would
So would I and I assume everyone else here. But I don’t think the organization does during the off-season or spring.
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 9, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
How about Brad Thompson
and Campillo could be in there at some point this year, right?
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I think he's probably around a league-average pitcher
at a good prce in arb. That’s valuable, but the Royals shouldn’t be afraid to move him
Although the idea that they’re more willing to shop him than Meche is just more of the “bizarro rebuild” plan. Meche is still better, but costs a lot more. I guess they want to try to “sell high” on Meche, but it seems to me there’s just as much a chance of Meche hurting his value more by getting hurt again or “underperforming” as there is of him kicking ass a la 2007-2008 next season.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 9, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed
With the free agent market for starting pitchers as sparse as it is, I think now is definitely the time to move Meche. Would he be more valuable halfway through the 2010 season at the deadline? Maybe. If he puts up numbers close to the kick ass season, then great. But I think there is just as much of a likelihood that Hillman-san allows/forces Meche to throw his arm right off his body.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 9, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
If we move Meche
I have to believe we get a deal with at least 3 legit prospects. Maybe a MLB ready CF’r in Pie plus two. What do you guys think?
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Good lord
Pie and prospect for Meche would be a delight!
How about Buster Posey too???!?!?!?!?
haha
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I'm just looking at the value of starting pitching this offseason.
Why is that to much to ask? If they say no, we have more options.
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I think the Royals
can easily afford to trade Meche or Bannister..
Meche is more of an attractive option for the Royals because it would clear out salary to spend elsewhere, such as a catcher, reliever and or outfielder.
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Finally some good news from the winter meetings...
Dutton is reporting that Moore is already inquiring with the Yanks about a trade for Gardner.
Rocco Baldelli
I know that Baldelli has been oft injured but he can hit for more power and steal more bases than Dejuses and we could get him cheap. He plays a decent outfield and we could probably sign him for 5m over two years for a good stopgap until an outfielder can come out of the system.
You realize he has a mitochondrial disease that makes him fatigued all the time?
He’s pretty much done as an every day player.
So, he'd only be a win or so better than Jose Guillen?
(thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all week!)
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
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