Cliff Floyd is all about heart, determination, and grit.... Cliff Floyd is forecast to be a league average hitter. And a league average hitter who cannot (or is not expected to) play the field is the very definition of a replacement-level player. Indeed, the GM of the Padres agrees with this assessment, as his stated role is also the very definition of replacement-level player. That replacement-level player, with ordinary heart and determination, will cost you 400,000$. Cliff Floyd however is going to cost 750,000$. When people say that you can’t measure the intangibles, remind them that those intangibles are being paid for with tangible dollars. And the value of those intangibles, as determined by MLB, is $350,000. If it was worth more, then some team would have paid more. They didn’t."
about 3 years ago
Matt Klaassen
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disagree
the point is that by defintion a league-average hitter who has not position is replacement level.
Replacement level = 22.5 runs (2.25 wins) below average
DH penalty = -22.5
There for league average hitting (= 0 above/below average) as a DH (-22.5) = repla cement level player (-22.5)
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Is it also true by definition that replacement level for a defensive specialist is equivalent to league-average defense?
technically
replacement level doesn’t have a solid definition, it moves around a lot depending on what people try to argue.
but most consider replacement to be league average defense
I don't know if you're messing with me or not, but I'm definitely confused by the question
Here’s how I’ve seen it explained, so here’s how I think of this. Note that this is the Tango/MGL/Fangraphs crowd version of replacement level position players, not BP’s. They both are about hte same thing, but define it differently.
There is no such thing as a “replacement level hitter” or “replacement level defender,” only replacement level players.
The value of a player is relative to league averages, and is a combination of his offensive and defensive runs above/below average and what position he plays. If that combination hits 22.5 per full season (howver that’s defined - say, 600 PAs or 160 games), then he’s replacement level.
So let’s take a player as an example, say Endy Chavez. CHONE projets him as a -18 hitter/150 games. That’s pretty horrible. Let’s say we consider him a corner outfielder (although he can probably player center). The positional adjustment used at FanGraphs (and not everyone agrees with this) is -7.5/150, since corner outfielders are relatively easy to find on the replacement market.
Now, if we just consider those two things, they he’s a 25.5 player - below replacement level. That’s the case if he has average defense. As Zep says, it is generally assumed, on the basis of some studies, that a replacement-level player (freely available AAA talent/journeymen, etc.) to have league-average defense.
But what about defense? CHONE sees him as a +20/150 defender on the corners. If that’s the vase, then he’s a -5.5 run (we’d rather say -.55 wins, for the sake of simplicity, we’ll stick with a 10:1 runs to wins conversion) playres, or +19.5 above replacement.
Make sense? For pitchers it’s a bit different, but the general lines for replacement is 2.25 wins average. Some adjust differently for different leagues in certain eras. For example, Tango goes through an argument to concretely demonstrate the superiority of Al pitching, so he concludes that the relative replacement levels for the AL and NL to reflect that - so he gives AL nonpitchers a replacement level of -2.5 wins below average, and NL nonpitcher -2 wins.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
sorry about the crossouts, they shouldn't be there...
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
d'oh, here aren the mangled paragraphs
The value of a player is relative to league averages, and is a combination of his offensive and defensive runs above/below average and what position he plays. If that combination hits 22.5 per full season (howver that’s defined – say, 600 PAs or 160 games), then he’s replacement level.
Make sense? For pitchers it’s a bit different, but the general lines for replacement is 2.25 wins average. Some adjust differently for different leagues in certain eras. For example, Tango goes through an argument to concretely demonstrate the superiority of Al pitching, so he concludes that the relative replacement levels for the AL and NL to reflect that – so he gives AL nonpitchers a replacement level of -2.5 wins below average, and NL nonpitcher -2 wins.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the explanation. No, I’m not messing with you. I’m trying to understand where “replacement level” lurks relative to “league average” for Tango & co.
Because of the nature of the value curve among players, the mean is always well below the median. So if “replacement level” is near the mean, more than half the guys in the league are supposedly replaceable. The turnover rate is a fraction of that percentage, so that can’t be right.
I ask because I used to use Lee Sinins’ encyclopedia all the time, and he lists “Runs Created Above Average” for everybody. Doesn’t take long to figure out that RCAA is negative for more than half the guys in the league.
yeah, the whole point of replacement level
however it is defined, is that below average players have value. Replacement level tries to establish a more helpful baseline.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
OK, so that much is rudimentary. But if you have a limited skill set, for example if you only hit, in this system replacement value snaps to league average for that skill set? That just seems like a placeholder for further analysis. So I asked.
replacement level
is a simple hack (for lack of a better word) to avoid needlessly complex piece-wise functions of player value. Basically, because of the presence of minimum salary and team-controlled labor, value cannot be modeled on a smooth curve. Replacement level just sets a zero value to that you can model from there.
Replacement level as commonly defined almost certainly doesn’t exist, but it makes the math a hell of a lot easier. Moreover, the error caused by it is a)relatively small, and b) mainly present in bad players which we don’t care about anyways.
How is the error measured?
Does the system produce reliable predictions of which players will in fact be replaced?
I don’t want to make this tedious, but I’m interested in the answers. I’m not looking to trip anybody up.
How is the error measured?
to truly measure it would require formalized measures of value without using replacement level to compare against. I’m making the argument that at that level of talent, when players are so interchangeable, the luck of a few batted balls is likely more than the difference between varying estimates of value. Its an excise for academics with lots of time.
Does the system produce reliable predictions of which players will in fact be replaced?
if used in conjunction with the knowledge of labor controls and scouting information, i guess. A below replacement player that is under team control that is likely to get better would obviously be kept around. One that is old and a FA is easily replaced…
Unfortunately,
the DH penalty of -22.5 runs is made up. A player’s market value is tied to how much better he is than the guy who’d step in if the player weren’t there. In theory, you should be able to approximate the difference in defensive value between positions by comparing the offensive output from those positions. (For example, if the average SS contributed 75 runs offensively in 2008 and the average 1B contributed 90 runs offensively in 2008, assuming talent was normally distributed in 2008 and playing time was allocated optimally, you could conclude that defense at SS is worth 15 more runs than defense at 1B) Of course, players at 1B actually tend to perform better offensively than those at DH. So why would we assess a larger positional penalty for DH than 1B?
I'm just explaining how they come to the conclusion about Floyd
You’re smarter than me, you tell me. That’s why I qualify my statements above by “this isn’t how everyone does it.” It’s how Tango does it.
We assign a larger penalty to DH because we know that someone who plays 1B, SS, or anything else, has the defensive “ability” to handle DH, and not vice-versa.
I used the generic DH penalty there for the sake of this article, Tango, et. al. give an after the fact “pinch hit” bonus of 5 runs to DHes to account fo the difficulty of hitting off of the bench, so after the fact, the DH penatly is -1.75 wins.
But I do think that using generic positional adjustments across the board makes more sense in general than adjusting from positional averages for the season (as VORP) does, otherwise you get into certain situations, like in the 1950s, where CFers hit on average better than LFers. Does this mean that LFers were more scarce and harder to replace? I’d say no - because we know that CFers can play LF, but not vice-versa.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
sorry
I wasn’t criticizing you—I agree that’s how he was doing it. I’m not a huge fan of the method, but I agree it has its benefits. It just has its shortcomings like everything else.
no need to apologize
my first sentence comes off as snippy, I really do think you think more precisely about this stuff than I do, although I do like Tango’s way of doing it both for the logic and the simplicity of it.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Re: 1B/DH
And yes, of course it’s true that someone who plays MLB 1B is inherently capable of playing DH, and thus the offensive talent pool for a DH should be larger than the talent pool for 1B. One would expect that because of this theoretically larger offensive talent pool, the average MLB DH would be better offensively than the average MLB 1B, but for whatever reason, that’s not the case.
I think the reason for this is that MLB-quality 1B isn’t all that difficult to play, and most people who are athletically gifted enough to be a MLB 1B-quality hitter are also capapble of playing MLB-quality defensive first base. So even if the talent pool for DH is theoretically bigger than that for 1B, the correlation between the elite in these two pools is strong enough that in most cases, a great hitter will be able to play either 1B or DH. Effectively, this means that it’s no more difficult to find a replacement 1B than a replacement DH, and as a result, average defense at 1B should have little to no market value when compared to “average defense” at DH.
I dunno
According to the 2008 plus/minus leaderboard, Mike Jacobs (-27 plays, ~ minus 22 runs), Jason Giambi (minus 14 runs), and a few others would have been better off DHing, along the lines of my overly-confusing analysis of players who would be more valuable DHing than being on the field at all on defense (although I didn’t use plus/minus there, all the guys listed on the plus/minus trailers list are bad enough that they would have made it past the -17.5 limit for sure).
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The fact that there are MLB hitters that can't play MLB 1B
doesn’t mean that it’s substantially more difficult to find a 1B-level hitter with 1B-level defense than it is to find a 1B-level hitter alone. There’s probably something like an 75% overlap between the two groups and each team needs two of these guys. The question is not whether the group of 1B-level hitters + 1B-level defenders is identical to the group of 1B-level hitters, it’s whether 1B-level hitters + 1B-level defenders are sufficiently more scarce than 1B-level hitters that the market should pay a premium for hitters who can handle 1B defensively.
It’s like if I were putting together a clarinet duo, but on a few songs, I really need one of the guys to be able to play a recorder instead. Maybe not everyone who plays clarinet can also play recorder, but most could, so would I really pay more for a guy who can handle both?
I'm just happy a black guy
was described as having “intangibles” and “leadership” abilities (not to mention the implication that fellow African-American player Mike Cameron was too!). Finally, it’s not just gritty white players who are getting overpaid.
yeah, it's interesting
as soon as a guy gets old, and, in Floyd’s case, is basically worthless as a player, he gains immeasurably in “grit.”
Suckiness > Race
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
although Cameron is actually still pretty good
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 10, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions















