Royals Review: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Spencer Hall's College Football Week 12 Alphabetical

File

This is a graphical representation of (select) Royals 2008 O-Swing%, from Fangraphs. It gives the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone each hitter swings out. The implciations are obvious. The lower the better. In 2008, the MLB average was 25.4%.

Click here for a bigger (and more readable) version of the graph.

Three things to note:

1. I had to leave Jason Smith off because it made the graph impossible to read, since he was at 61.7%.

2. Mike Jacobs' O-Swing% for 2008 was 34.0%.

3. Seitzer's got his work cut out for him.

9 months ago Newavatar_tiny devil_fingers 50 comments 4 recs  | 

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Miguel Olivo is an abomination of a baseball player

Oh, and still love me some German. (or at least like)

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 11, 2009 12:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wow

I assume “The Smirk” is Gordon? I would have guessed that he and Aviles would have swapped positions from these shown. The first picture in my mind of Gordon is him always walking back to the dugout after a huuuge whiff. I know, I didn’t inspect any stats, just my impressions from viewing the games. Statistically, I guess Gordon gets on base far more often than it seems. How does he do that?

Feb 13!!

by kabrink on Feb 11, 2009 12:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

There's only one

pitch that Gordo consistantly wiffs with – the low and away breaking ball from LHP get him every time. Like clockwork.

by labbadabba on Feb 11, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You forgot the above the hands inside pitch

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 11, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that's the hardest pitch to hit in baseball

according to Bill Fischer

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 11, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That pitch should be illegal anyway

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

According to Mike Stinkey

at RC GMDM brought up how Alex was getting jobbed by last years strikezone.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 11, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that guy has little credibility

he might be telling the truth, but you never know with him.

bring up Sweeney and watch him freak out. very entertaining.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 12, 2009 1:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that guy is a complete joke

Completely unreliable.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 12, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wait... there's actually a guy named "Mike Stinkey?"

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 12, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oh, RC?

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 12, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

IMO, that site is good for prospect info and many who post in the forums there know a lot about Royals minor leaguers. But that’s about it. The discussion of Royals players, DM, TH, possible trades, etc. is inane.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 13, 2009 12:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but is there really a guy who goes by "Mike Stinkey" there?

and is he the “we’re not marketing Butler next season” guy?

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 13, 2009 1:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There is a very prolific poster there named "Mike Stinkey"

But I don’t know if he’s the guy talking about not marketing Butler. I’ve read some of his comments, but I try to avoid them as much as possible.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 13, 2009 1:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's true but

I’ve heard GMDM bring up Alex getting worked on the strikezone a few different times.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 12, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting O-swing trends

In your link, O-swing has increased from 20 to 25% over the past three years… bizarre. A function of a change in who is defining (for the statistics) what constitutes a pitch outside the strike zone? Or perhaps expanding strike zones that make things “outside the strike zone” potentially strikes by the ump’s call? Or maybe just statistical noise, I guess… hard to tell without std devs or a longer history.

by wentToARoyalsGameBeforeRR on Feb 11, 2009 9:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oitching in general seems to increasginly have the upper hand

Run scoring has been on the downswing the last 3-4 years in the MLB in general. I don’t know why — the simplest explanation is probably just that the balance of talent has swung to the pitchers’ side more. So either the average hitter has gotten crappier re: strike zone judgment, or the pitchers are better at deceiving them, or both… but that’s just a guess

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"Oitching?"

dear Xenu I’m a bad typist

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Part of me wondered

if “oitching” was some kind of shorthand that only nerds know, so I wasn’t going to mention it.

WTF, self?

by minda33 on Feb 11, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's short for "pitching outside the strike zone"

Actually, that phrase was shortened to O-pitching, and eventually shortened to oitching. Also, it is a little used slang term for scratching something until it hurts.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 11, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just call it oace

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 11, 2009 6:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

WTF, self?

by minda33 on Feb 11, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Question: Can you...

…at least put their real names in parenthesis after the nickname? I’m interested, but don’t immediately recognize The Smirk, Baconator, and Hoagy. – TL

by timlacy on Feb 11, 2009 10:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sorry...

I’d have to re-do the whole thing since it’s a screen shot. I went with nicknames because they are shorter and less cluttered. The guesses below are correct

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Guesses on Two, sure on one.

Hoagy = Jose Guillen
Baconater = Butler*
Smirk = Gordon*

*I think.

by ajblobaum on Feb 11, 2009 11:49 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I didn't want to clutter it up any more than it already was, since most players cluster around the average

but Both Bloomquist and Crisp are around just under 24%, right around DDJ. Which just goes to show (as if “Gator” Gathright being where he is isn’t enough evidence) that while good judgment is part fo being a good hitter, it doesn’t get you all the way there…

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 12:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

Love the graph.

Few thoughts on the results:

- Love German and Callapso’s numbers. It’s sad that German probably going to get dumped for nothing in a few weeks.

- I assume Gator’s number is pretty low because he’s never up there long enough to see many pitches. He was bunting or taking a half swing at the first pitch in the zone — Swinging to (soft) contact, similar to the Baird era pitching approach

- I was surprised Olivo was more of a hacker than TPJ. I remember seeing TPJ’s number being pretty high during the first half of his rookie season and predicting huge regression due to pitchers picking up on his hacktastic tendencies. I assume Olivo’s overall numbers will drop badly as his increased playing time with his hacktastic tendencies will be exploited in the same manner.

- I expect a large regression from Aviles in part based on those numbers (plus BABIP), but think his numbers will still be decent enough for SS.

- Any team want to pick up the salary of a malcontent, free-swinging RF? Especially since the Royals have pretty much admitted that they’d love to pick up some of the remaining FA, but don’t have the budget for it right now.

by Top Ramen on Feb 11, 2009 12:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

Actually Gator’s numbers are consistently above league average. If the guy could drive the ball at all, even on the Teahen level, he’d probably be a poor man’s Carl Crawford. Genetics didn’t work out for him, in that regard.

Yeah, what can we really say about the Hoagy signing at this point? He isn’t even as good as Mark Teahen. Last I heard, Abreu might not go for much more that $4M. If the Royals had $12M laying around, they might be able to have Abreu and Adam Dunn next year. Yes, the defense would be awful, but Guillen is entering that zone and both those guys can actually hit. The more I think about it, I get even more upset. Maybe even approaching the “why didn’t the Royals pick up Langerhans off waivers?” level for me.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's surprising on Gator

Although I guess in his first year with the Royals, he tried to drive the ball somewhat. Last year he almost completely abandoned that approach in favor of bunts and infield singles. Maybe he needs to get traded to the Yankees to hang around with ARod, Petitte, etc. to get “help” in driving the ball.

by Top Ramen on Feb 11, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

actually

didn’t we simply release him?

Feb 13!!

by kabrink on Feb 11, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

to be slightly more fair, though,

not that i like the hoagy signing, but the salary environment was quite different when we picked him up. you can’t normally bet on a nasty recession coming up.

it does frustrate me no end, though, that just when the royals have a bit more cash (in part from having an owner whose wealth is in a company doing relatively well), and just when players’ salaries are becoming more reasonable, we are cash strapped by past (and not-so-past) decisions, and the yankees are actually getting tremendous deals on players like tex, and especially cc.

i believe the beyond-the-boxscore calculation on cc was that, even if he drops 0.5 WAR/yr, he’d still be worth like $170m over 8. the fact that the yankees aren’t forced to insanely overpay is what annoys me most.

i wish in 2007 glass had taken the negative position on credit default swaps and sold short on the ABX securitized mortgage index. we could afford to buy the yankees, then.

by Sean O Se on Feb 11, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Abreu just went for $1/5M to the Angels

don’t have the heart to post it to a separate fanshot

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you scare me with the aviles prediction

this does indeed look like a large regression is due. he oitches more than 40% over league average.

with no BABIP luck he could be doomed.

fortunately, as backup we have bloomquist, the Swedish Scourge.

by Sean O Se on Feb 11, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wikipedia-based prediction

“Bloomquist had his greatest offensive contribution during his brief major league callup at the end of the 2002 season. In 33 at-bats, Bloomquist had a batting average of .455 and an on-base plus slugging of 1.102.”

based on this, using a Marcels prediction with past year weights of (0,0,0,0,0,0,1), i can see bloomie next year being the first player in decades to break .400 avg.

to add a dose of realism, however, i am predicting a slugging of 400, also.

by Sean O Se on Feb 11, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Aviles will regress

I mean, on the overall pace he was on both offensively and defensively, he was a legit MVP candidate. But even if he regresses to something like a .280/.315/.420 with average defense, that’s still probably about a league-average shortstop, and at $400,000, you can’t go wrong.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Guillens

two stats seem to indicate he was pressing. His OSwing% was 5% lower than at any time in the last four years and his BB% was the lowest it has been in 10 years. Combine that with nearly his lowest BABIP in any season he has played 100+ games and I expect a nice bounce back season from Guillen. Obviously this will hinge on him coming into camp in shape since that was a significant reason he probably had some of those stats last year but trying to play up to a contract could’ve played into it as well. He will be 33 which isn’t exactly a graveyard age although he won’t be reaching his peak performance. This is total guess but maybe he gets back into that .345 OBP range combined with a .460 SLG range.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 11, 2009 9:33 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

it's possible

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 11, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

CHONE would say that

.345 OBP would be about his 80th percentile projection and .460 SLG would be about a 65th percentile projection. So that means there’s about a 27.5% chance of that happening. [wink, wink]

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 11, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well, we all know how the "pressure of a big contract" affects people

just ask A-Rod.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 12, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I laughed when I saw

TPJ’s name on there.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 11, 2009 10:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Kansas City Royals.
Start posting about the Royals »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Neutron_star_small
Daily guess at the 2010 Royals.
Royalsreview_small
Late Night Royals Links: Rethinking Gordon, New Chukars Manager, Powder Blue Hats etc.
Ignignokt_small
Guillen and the (not so) almighty RBI
Stadium-sellout-450w_small
Early projection on 2010 Royals roster
Small
Fixing the kansas city royals
_41153080_gallerysanta_small
Are you good enough?
Trust_small
Denny Matthews at Plaza Library
Royalsretro_small
Royals sign P Jorge Campillo
Stash1_small
Kansas City Fails To Pick Up Option On Royals
Royalsretro_small
Royals sign P Brad Thompson

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Managers

Royalsreview_small royalsreview