Source: Abreu, Angels agree to deal

Whadda think? One year, 5 million with incentives

about 3 years ago truebluetradition 12 comments 0 recs |

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Great deal but Torii Hunter better find his running shoes if they are

planning on playing Vlad in Right and Abreu in left.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 11, 2009 6:45 PM EST reply actions

I think the plan might be to have him or Vlad DH

although Juan Rivera isn’t exactly Ryan Langerhans on the corners, himself…

Abreu’s still a very good hitter. It’s sort of like getting Jose Guillen on a $5M + incentives deal, except that he’s a good hitter (in decline) instead of an overrated one who fell off a cliff.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 11, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

Not every corner OFer needs to be compared to Jose Guillen

It’s like comparing every Royals 1B to Ross Gload. In the words of Bart Simpson, “we get it; he sucks.”

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions

someone on MLB network said they’re going to give Rivera some ground balls at first base this spring.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 11, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions

I hope for the Angels' sake that BS

The one situation were Juan Rivera might be the best defensive option and they want to move him to first. He might be able to play defense just well enough that it doesn’t totally cancel out his hitting (although that deal is iffy)….

Maybe the Royals can get Brandon Wood for Mike Jacobs, since they don’t seem interested in giving Wood a chance at all. I’m not that high on him, either… I’m sure they’d throw in Kendry Morales, too.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 11, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

They gave Wood an opportunity in '08

but it is tough to continue to run him out there when he is putting TPJ numbers up. They are in a different spot than KC obviously and can’t afford to let a blackhole be ran out there everyday. He has a ton of talent but he swings and misses alot.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 12, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

he's not really that great anymore

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 11, 2009 6:49 PM EST reply actions

One-year, $5+3M

Basically if he is a regular all season, he gets $8M.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2009 6:51 PM EST reply actions

Seems like a good deal at face value

But is he really that much of an upgrade over Garret Anderson, who he is effectively replacing in the lineup? NYRoyal or d_f do you have projection comparisons handy?

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Feb 11, 2009 7:27 PM EST reply actions

D_f could crunch some better numbers for you

But, if Anderson could repeat his uncharacteristic defensive spike of 2008 and then hit at roughly his projections, he’d be approximately a 1.8 WAR player. If Abreu has the horrible defense he had last year and hits at his projections, he’s about a 1.5 WAR player. Now, since Anderson’s defense probably isn’t quite that good and Abreu’s probably isn’t as bad as -23 UZR anti-spike, I think Abreu is likely a 2 WAR player and Anderson is likely a 1.5 WAR player (or worse).

So, in answer to your question, is it really that much of an upgrade? Probably not. But for a team as rich as the Angels, maybe they can afford $5-8M for a .5 WAR upgrade.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions

Abreu vs. Anderson

Just glancing at PECOTA (my wOBA conversion) and CHONE, and t hen CHONE’s defensive stuff and bUZR, I’d say that Anderson’s probably 0 to ~~10 on defense, while Abreu’s probably between minus 10 and minus 20 -~~ to about a 1 win difference there. But Anderson’s probably about minus 10, minus 5 at best offensively, and Abreu’s probably plus 10, maybe +20 on offense.

Lazy, imprecise summary guess projection:

Anderson: -5 defense, -5 offense -7.5 position, +25 AL replacement level = +0.75 WAR player…

Abreu: -15 defense, +15 offense, -7.5 position, +25 AL replacement level = +1.8 WAR player.

Good investment for the Angels, especially if they pull their heads out on defense (and really, what the hell else is Gary Matthews, Jr. going to do?). $5-$8M for a guy who’s close to 2 WAR is decent.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 11, 2009 11:29 PM EST up reply actions