Gut Response - Are the Royals Better Than the White Sox?
by Freneau on Feb 12, 2009 7:00 AM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintAnd so, we reach the final entry in our tour through the AL Central, last year's division winner, the Pale Hose. Considering that after 688 votes 74% of you don't think the Royals are better than the Twins, we should expect another solid victory for "no", no?
Then again, a lot of people are down on Chicago, just like they were down on each other. Really, it seems like the White Sox have started to pick up on Cleveland's whole volatile year to year variability thing. I guess it fits, given the way Kenny Williams fits the profile of a mad scientist, only the science is alchemy.
| '07 Pythag | '08 Pythag | |
| White Sox | 67-95 | 89-74 |
| Royals | 74-88 | 72-90 |
White Sox Losses: Horacio Ramirez (holla!), Boone Logan, Javy Vazquez, Nick Swisher, Joe Crede, Ken Griffey Jr., Orlando Cabrera (I think)
Additions: Bartolo Colon, Wilson Betemit, Jaff Marquez, Brent Lillibridge, Ben Broussard
It seems unusual to see a division winning team make so many moves, but the White Sox have never been about being a happy family, even when times are good. The White Sox are an old team with a shallow minor league system (though not one without a few elite prospects) and an interesting mix of players at the big league level. Really, the end has to be near, right? Maybe, maybe not. One clear way to find out: tell me if you think the Royals have already passed them.
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Sox clog the bases with too many walks and kill rallies with home runs
We are better with our bunts and steals.
Seriously though, we are better. Our pitching is way better than theirs, and our offense is only slightly worse IMO, especially if Konerko and Thome continue declining.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Thome is pretty amazing
just look at his OPS+ through the years
http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/thomeji01.shtml
For some reason people acted like he was done 5 years ago, but he’s had a good run
My gut says we're better.
But my gut told me our house was burglarized last holiday season. Yea, nothing was stolen but someone broke in and shrunk all of my pants!
by kmartin on Feb 12, 2009 10:15 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I will give the Royals
a thumbs up over the White Sox in pitching but our offense isn’t nearly as good as theirs. So, my tie will go to Ozzie’s team. If Jacobs hits 40 homeruns and Teahen is the starting 2nd baseman and Butts pulls his head out of his …offensively. Maybe then …but that is a lot of ifs and we still have our long slumps to look forward too.
The glass is not as half full as usual. Maybe I got up to early this morning.
come on Mr. Gloomy Gus
you need a cheerier outlook on life in the American League Central Division!
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
This is actually the only one I said yes to.
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
Not sure our rotation is better than the White Sox
Gavin Floyd (3.84 ERA, 206 innings, 1.26 WHIP, 119 ERA+) was arguablyl better than Meche last year.
John Danks (3.32 ERA, 195 innings, 1.23 WHIP, 138 ERA+) was at least as good as Greinke last year.
I’ll take Mark Buehrle over Hochevar (maybe not for the long run, but for 2009…sure)
And it’s way too early to start arguing Davies is better than whoever they’re trotting out as their number 4.
Then you have Banny/Ho-Ram vs. their number 5…let’s not go there right now.
All in all, I’d say we’re about even with their rotation, and that’s probably optimistic.
Off the top of my head, without even looking at it, I’d have to say their lineup is better. Carlos I-should-be-starting-in-left-field-for-the-Royals Quentin wins that argument almost by himself.
So no, we’re not better than the White Sox. (unless of course Gordon becomes Evan Longoria…)
I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan
by jackie ballgame on Feb 12, 2009 11:18 AM EST reply actions
Floyd is due for a pretty big set back next year
His strikeout rates were pretty low last year and I believe he was BABIP lucky. I think most expect him to regress quite a bit. I also think Greinke will improve quite a bit.
And our bullpen is way better than theirs, even with DM kinda messing it up this winter.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 12, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
My evaluation of pitching was...
…not solely based on starters. It’s a kind of total package thing. Basically, I think our middle relievers and set up men are better than the Sox, with the rest (starters and closer) being even. – TL
I was actually being sarcastic
but I left out the fact that I leaned towards the Royals, so that didn’t really work out… I haven’t crunched any numbers, but I think our pitching is better top-to-bottom and both line-ups have major question marks, so I have to give the edge to KC. That’s my “gut”.
by FretFriendly on Feb 12, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
I figured you were leaning with KC but the HoRam dagger could've lead one to lean Sox.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
That's good fantasy baseball info about Floyd
Thanks Retro
On the bullpen, Farnsworth frightens me and the winter’s not over. Williams could have something up his sleeve. I’ll give us the bullpen for now, but I’m very curious to see how everyone outside of Soria and Mahay performs. If Moore does it again with the bullpen, I’m going to have to give him a lot of props.
I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan
by jackie ballgame on Feb 12, 2009 12:04 PM EST reply actions
wow---the poll started out heavily pro-Royal
but now it’s nearly evened out.
the late risers are pessimistic.
(i voted sox. oddly, when comparing the royals to any particular team, i think each one goes against the royals; but i think we’re going to end up in fourth place. cf. arrow’s impossibility theorem.)
Royals fans are weird
If I remember correctly, people wre really sure KCA is better than CLE and probably DET, but not the Twins, and it’s close on CHA so far… Are these tourists from Mellinger’s blog or something?
Their bullpen isn’t all that bad, actually, not compared to the Royals. The Royals might be a bit better, but saying Dayton Moore “kind of messed up the bullpen” is like saying that the banks “kind of messed up” people’s mortgages.
I’d say more, but I’ll save it for a FanPost…
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+100
Small correction, the vote here said that the Indians are better than the Royals and the vote wasn’t close. But yes, many of the votes seem topsy turvy. The Twins are much better than us, but the vote is close with regard to the White Sox? Huh? And we’re clearly better than the Tigers? How very odd. I think this is Last Year’s Standings Syndrome. I think for most fans, when evaluating a team or a player, they look at the prior year and that’s about it.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 12, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
we're all waiting for the white sox to crumble
while the twins will just be annoying little 85 win bitches for the next 100 years
This Twins run over the past decade
has been a national nightmare. Will someone not named Morneau or Mauer have a huge statistical year for the Twins? The rest of Baseball should licking their lips for Wieters to get called up just so we can stop fawning all over Joe Mauer. The Twins just annoy the hell out of me.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
Hey NYR
Yes, these votes are wild. I’m probably one of the pessimists (realists?) in that I’ve voted against the Royals on every one of these polls. However, I allowed my optimism into your RCI post and “predicted” 82 (83?) wins but qualifed that with “hope”. I really, really would like to end 1 game at least above .500 and so I am trying to “believe” and “will” them to that milestone. Unfortunately, I think our offense is simply way too weak and unreliable to actually make it.
So, having said all that, I’ve been curious and waiting to see your compiled results to see how they compare with these polls we’re doing. How’s that coming? Do you have any rough feeling about the optimism comps between these two polling efforts?
Feb 13!!
The RCI results will be coming next week
Do you have any rough feeling about the optimism comps between these two polling efforts?
Do you mean the two most recent RCI’s? If so, I think they are roughly similar, but I can’t really tell until I crunch the numbers.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 12, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
No
I mean the most recent RCI compared to these comparison polls between the Royals and the rest of the AL Central.
Feb 13!!
Hard to say
We’ll see how the numbers breakdown. But let’s say the win total average comes out at 80. Would that jive with the “gut reaction” polls? I don’t know.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 13, 2009 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
Well, this is a "Gut" response
so I would expect more L.Y.S.S.
If it was “Here are the projected stats for projected starters – now who is better?”, the results might be completely different.
Why don't you save it for the season
You don’t even know who is gonna be in the bullpen yet.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
What, are they going to move Greinke yet?
Is Farnsworth going to be the #2 starter?
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 12, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
The pen could be drastically different if they
have Carlos Rosa in it. A pen of Soria, Rosa, Mahay, Farnsworth, Bale, Waechter, HoRam, really isn’t that bad. Rosa has the arm to be everything RamRam projects to be.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I agree with that
There’s a chance that will happen, and I hope it does. It will require Moore and Hillman to look beyond paychecks, of course. We’ll see if they do.
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 12, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
I suspect
HoRam is almost assured of starting the season in the rotation. He is going to really have to suck in ST to NOT make it, I think. This is a replay of Bale last year. DM has made pretty clear he really wants a lefty in the rotation.
Feb 13!!
I guess I had blocked it out until I read the article today
but Moore originally offered up Rosa for Jacobs instead of Nunez.
Eek
Thank you Marlins.
Did not expect this vote
I think we’re being compromised by South Siders in the blogosphere. Maybe Andy Sisco, Mike McDougal, and D.J. Carrasco convinced all their buddies to create SB nation accounts and vote ‘no’.
We need subpoena power and a full blown investigation of this conspiratorial ruining of our regional innocence/influence.
Waiting for April.
I don't get it.
I really don’t get it. I logged in this morning and expected to see the R’s in the lead before I cast my vote. To my expectation, they were. I then log in this afternoon and find the Pale Hose mysteriously ahead.
B.P. projected the Sox as worse than the Royals for 2009, so why is the RR community projection the opposite of such? Has the RR universe really grown this pessimistic? Or could there by an infiltration of White Sox fans casting their votes here? If it’s the latter, I can do a little research.
If it’s the former……then I really don’t know what to say.
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
Quite possibly some ballot stuffing
Can’t really believe the legitimacy of any vote on here after TPJ and Ross Gload won my Pick to Click (Hitters) vote. The polls in this room are on steroids
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
It's possible
I scrolled through several White Sox message boards, but found no (recent) references to this site or this poll.
I just find it bizarre that we’re evidently willing to transcend a statistical projection from a renowed site like B.P. as long as it’s negative against the Royals. Of course, I don’t place as much stock in projection systems as several others on this site – for one, Alex Gordon hitting 25 HR’s wouldn’t surprise me, in the least, while judging by the projections, it should shock everybody. Still…..it’s a guideline that is worth at least placing some attention in.
I found the TPJ and Gload P2C votes a bit humorous and humorously attempted. I mean, we love to denegrade the worst players on the team. I do it, too. We dwell on it. We mock front offices for it. Luckily, the worst players on this team won’t receive even close to as much playing time as in years’ past – our depth has grown significantly.
I think it’s fairly obvious that the Royals are the better team. Especially when taking into account potential. The White Sox’ potential is probably that of an 85 win team, but that isn’t likely given their ages and unexpected performances from several pitchers last year. The Royals’ potential is probably more towards 90 – because of Gordon, Butler, and Ka’aihue, who are each still on the upswing. Our probability of reaching that potential is probably only a tick higher than that of the Pale Hose, however.
But I digress.
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
by Royals Nation on Feb 12, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
I think a lot of the lurkers are just basing their votes off of '08s standings
hence, the victory over the tigers and nothing else…
still, this is closer than Minn or Det were
just for the record, I said that the Royals are better than the White Sox
I don’t want to get on your bad side, even if I’m so “negative” that I think 90 wins is kind of nuts.
I also am more… bullish? bearish? What’s the good one again? I “feel” better about Gordon than the projection systems do in general… 25 homers definitely seems doable, if not likely. I guess I’d put it more in terms of him being close to a +15 or +20 hitter than +5 or +10.
Ross Gload and Jose Guillen did get significant playing time last year, though. Well, I guess Dayton was stuck with those guys from the previous administration.
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 12, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Bullish
on Gordon Bearish on our economy. 90 wins is kind of crazy to me, I think our peak would be 85 in a perfect world. The Sox have the greatest curve in the division IMO, they could win 90 games and they could pull a Tigers and win 70. Floyd was lucky to win 17 games last year and I think they have weakened their team by letting Vazquez go. Ya he isn’t a #1 or #2 but he is a 200+ IP starting pitcher and those types aren’t growing on trees.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
90 wins is kind of crazy to me, I think our peak would be 85 in a perfect world.
Even with a massive onslaught from Gordon and Butler, which possibly (though not likely) could happen. The probability of reaching that ceiling, as I mentioned, is probably quite low. But the fact is that the potential is still there, I believe, for both of them (more so for Gordon given the ISO). I’m also a huge believer in Ka’aihue….I ranked him ahead of Dan Cortes, who projects best case scenario as a #2 SP. Ka’aihue could perform at a .270/.380/.500 clip, soon, despite the one year. I think my belief/confidence in him is higher than most fans.
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
by Royals Nation on Feb 12, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
Correction
Even with a massive onslaught from Gordon and Butler, which possibly (though not likely) could happen?
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
by Royals Nation on Feb 12, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
I like Kila
but I’m not gonna get my hopes too high yet. Starting him in Omaha was the smart thing to do and if he performs like he did last year then I’m sure they will make room for him.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I like Kila as well
based on what little I have read on him, but doesn’t he have quite an uphill battle ahead of him with Butler and Jacobs as the leaders of the pack for the spot at 1st? If Kila has a strong start in the minors, there’s no chance we keep all three of them past the trade deadline… or is there?
by FretFriendly on Feb 12, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
If Billy and Kila perform
there is no reason to keep Jacobs around. Kila and Billy are cheaper and under team control longer. Hopefully Jacobs BABIP bounces back this season and he maintains his ISO. Those two things would be intriguing to some GM and maybe bring back a nice piece in return.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I don’t want to get on your bad side,
That’s okay.
Well, I guess Dayton was stuck with those guys from the previous administration.
I’m just trying to prevent the RR universe, as a whole, from plummeting too far into the depths of incessant negativity. Hint, hint. Objectivity, with a little hint of that residual fan-optimism…that’s my route.
Jose Guillen wouldn’t have been a liability if you repeat his 2007 numbers. Not a liability by any means. (Age doesn’t plummet from 31 to 32 overnight, and I understand his defense is woeful at worst). My expectations were .280/.345/.460 or so with below average D, hardly a liability. That said, I don’t want to resurrect that unending debate again….
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
by Royals Nation on Feb 12, 2009 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
He wouldn't have been a liability in himself
but he still would have been greatly overpaid, and you’d have to expect a decline. Once you figure in defense, he was an average player in 2007. And that was coming off a terrible year in 2006, and, yes, a very good year in 2005. And once you weight the averages, adjust for age, etc…
The issue is/was never whether or not Jose Guillen couild conceivably help the Royals. Yes, they realy could have used even a 1.5 WAR corner outfielder in 2008 (a more reasonable projection for Guillen after 2007). But just like with a house, where you can’t consider whether you like it or not without considering the size of the mortgage. A 1.5 WAR “house” would have been right at 2/12 or 3/15, not 3/36. And when the projection fails, there’s less permanent fallout.
But let me list some positive and realistic upsides:
1) Greinke maintains his performance or improves it
2) Hochevar develops into a #3 or even a #2 pitcher
3) Davies and Bannister prove they can be #4 guys
4) Gordon’s defense returns to 2007 levels and regresses “up” against lefties, becoming a 4+ WAR player
5) Jose Guillen goes on an tear at the beginning of the year and DMGM realizes he has to seize the moment and trade him and most of his salary for a bag of day old donuts
6) Billy Butler hits like a league average 1B
7) After Guillen gets traded, Mark Teahen returns to RF and hits a respectable .280/.350/.430 while playing good defense
8) Rosa and Tejeda take over for Dayton’s Follies in the middle innings
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 12, 2009 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
What gut says
We’re better but PECOTA says barely. PECOTA is telling me not to hold my breathe because a slight change could make us worse than the White Sox.
I still feel the White Sox are much worse than they were last year but then again they won the division. But whatever baseball is a crazy game.
I guess the moral of the story is the White Sox don’t scare me. I think Ozzie-Ball does though.
by Royal from Queens on Feb 12, 2009 7:09 PM EST reply actions
As much as an Oriole fan it would give me great pleasure to
see the Royals finish ahead of the Sox and presumably win the AL Central, I don’t see it. Gavin Floyd is going to be solid for a while, and not many people are mentioning Carlos Quentin. I can see the rest of the league catching up to Alexei Ramirez, if he was even that good last year. The boy didn’t even have an 800 OPS year.
On the bright side for the Royals, this White Sox team has to be one of the most unathletic in Baseball. The Royals would most definitely win a track meet with the White Sox.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
Floyd's going to have a rude awakening in 2009
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 13, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
I would call it a crash landing
And not a Sully Sullenberg crash landing either.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 13, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Paul Konerko is just barely holding on
he had a OPS+ of 102 last season, and has declined each season since 2005
CHONE sees Konerko as a better hitter next season than anyone on the Royals
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 12, 2009 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
PECOTA sees Butler and Gordon being just a bit better
but Konerko is obviously on the way down… like 99% of players his age
for exceptions see Bonds, B; Ibanez, R.
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 12, 2009 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
I voted no . . .
. . . but, think the Royals finish above the Sox in the standings. Sometimes the better/more talented team doesn’t do better than the inferior one. (‘08 Tigers). But, on the other hand, they could win the division. Or to quote Doc Holliday from Tombstone, "Yes it’s true, you are a good woman. Then again, you may be the antichrist."
I voted yes
because I HATE THE WHITE SOX.
by I need more Esteban on Feb 13, 2009 3:48 PM EST reply actions
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