A Risk Worth Taking?
Nick Johnson wants a trade...
Does he fit on the Royals? Maybe you think he doesn't, because
-- he has had major injury problems.
-- he only has only year left on his contract (although that might be a good thing).
-- the Royals already have a logjam at 1B/DH.
-- he has outstanding strike zone judgment
-- he's never played for the Braves or the Mariners
Still, and seriously, $5.5 million isn't that bad, compared to what the Royals are shelling out elsewhere. Maybe there's still time to dump Jacobs. Shealy can go by the wayside, if necessary, and Gload, well, who gives a crap about Gload.
When healthy, Johnson is a better fielder than any other 1B candidate on the Royals, and although he's never gotten press, he's a beast of a hitter. Not monster power, but the guy can basically fall out of bed drunk and OBP .400 (career .396). Oh, and he can actually hit both right- and left-handed pitching.
He's basically a non-psychotic, first base version of Milton Bradley, a one-year flyer who might be worth trading at the deadline, at the very least. And, as opposed to all of Dayton Moore's other idiotic "win now" acquisitions this offseason that don't help the team win now, this one might. Even this past season, when he only appeared in 39 games, he WARed 0.9, which is almost a game better than Hoagy did in 150+ games. Over a full season, Johnson projects as a something like a +30 hitter and a +3 defender. Even if he only plays half a season that still better than any other non-Butler 1B/DH on the Royals is likely to do over a full season, and even Butler projects only slightly better over a full season.
Just a thought... It won't happen, but I always liked Johnson and thought he was underrated.
about 3 years ago
Matt Klaassen
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I'm a big fan...
Nick Johnson, if healthy, would lead the AL in OBP, as you mentioned he’s decent with the glove. Not surprisingly, it sounds like the A’s are/were sniffing around on him. If the Angels cared about OBP at all, they’d be trying to get him. What could have been…
Jacobs isn't settled yet
meaning he can still be cut cheap with an Arb contract. And i don’t think it would be too hard to prove Johnson is a better player (which is required i believe).
All irrelevent though. Johnson walks far too much.
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
it would have been
not anymore.
i was on the Johnson bandwagon last year big time.
the real guy i’d like to take a shot on is Dukes, but…
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
No thanks
would have to trade them something meaningful probably and probably DFA Jacobs equalling Nunez trade as a giveaway. All for a guy that has played 38 games in 2 seasons.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I would have traded for him
Before the Jacobs trade, but with MJ on board, I don’t see any room unless they are committed to dealing Butler.
A combo of Shealy/Johnson and Butler between the 1B/DH positions would have worked quite nicely I think.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
until Johnson goes down with a season ending injury two weeks into ST
he’s more predictable than Sweeney to get injured.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
... and yet he was still more valuable that Jacobs and Guillen combined last season
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 14, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Thats questionable
Your WAR value is a little out of control. The guy played 38 games and yes he played well for those games but come on do you really think he is as valuable in 38 as the others were in 150? Those defensive stats toss things out of whack. Is he better over 150 games than them, yes but more valuable in 1/5 the amount of games is doubtful. It’s not like Guillen is out there falling down every pop fly and Jacobs is letting the ball hit the dugout every 10th throw. WAR value is a little out of control when comparing a guy like that.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
true, I should have said
Nick Johnson + random replacement level scrub fill-ins > Jacobs + Guillen last season. Heck, either Jacobs or Guillen themselves could almost have been those scrub fill-ins!
It’s a bit confusing, yes, but that’s the whole point of replacement level…
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 14, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
um, sample size?
We hear sample size a lot on here. And I agree with that since it is a basic tenet of statistics. However, aren’t you ignoring it in this and similar cases?
Perhaps his 38 games worth of stats show exactly what you are asserting. But, it doesn’t necessarily hold that it would remain the same over a similar sample size. Now, using career numbers, then this argument goes away.
Feb 13!!
the issue isn't one of sample size
he was about at his career rates. In fact, the small sample makes the point — in 38 games, Nick Johnson produced more value over replacement than Guillen and Jacobs did in all of the 2008 season.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 15, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
OK
Well, I think we’re saying the same thing then. My main point was that if his 38 games were some kind of significant outperformance for him against his typical (which is very possible in a short time, as we know (teahen)) then it’s not a fair comparison. So, if it is in keeping with his long term performance then it clearly isn’t a “cherry picking” instance.
Desperately Seeking Soria (Subliminally encouraging Trey to "Think Leverage, you can do it, Leverage")
He's very good when healthy
But should a non-contending team like the Royals trade a prospect for a one-year rental? Obviously that would depend on who you have to give up. But I wouldn’t give up much for him, and not just because he’s not likely to play for a full season. I really don’t want to trade a significant piece of the future for a one-year 1B upgrade which still won’t get the Royals into contention.
The immoderate moderator
I don't think it would take much to get him
I would hope so at least. NJ doesn’t have very much value, although I heard BODES can be difficult to deal with.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Sure his value isn't high
But it’s going to take more than a throw away prospect like Blake Johnson to get him. I think it would take more than Julio Pimentel. I wouldn’t give up much of a prospect for a decent 1B at this point in the Royals rebuilding.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 14, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
No.
We’ve got 4 first basemen on the cusp or reasonably established: Jacobs, Butler, Kila, and Shealy. At least two have the ability for high OBP (Butler, Kila). All have some power. And you don’t need sterling defense at first; average will do. And 2 of the 4 are at least average (Butler could be with seasoning). …And none of this accounts for Teahen’s ability to back up 1st. …No first baseman is perfect (except maybe Pujols or Derek Lee).
Not much to say here
other than to say that putting Derek Lee with Albert Pujols as a first baseman is sort of like saying that "Kevin Seitzer and George Brett both had some success as third basemen for Kansas City). Derek Lee is a good bplayer. But since 2002, Derek’s Lee’s best season, 2005, is only better than Pujol’s 2002. Every season since then, Pujols has been better than Lee’s 2005. And that season was Lee’s best by far — by more than three wins.
Lee’s a good player who had one great year. Pujols would be a no doubt HoFer if he never stepped on the field again.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 14, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
Pujols would be a no doubt HoFer if he never stepped on the field again.
Well, maybe he should hang around for at least a couple more years to meet the Kiner career-length standard, just to be safe.
can we trade
the entire organization for him?
OK, let’s keep Greinke and Soria.
Desperately Seeking Soria (Subliminally encouraging Trey to "Think Leverage, you can do it, Leverage")
I think he'd be worth making a pitch for next year.
Then again, I thought Willie Bloomquist would never get more than a ST invite. ARGH.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
I had him on my fantasy keeper team
and just couldn’t cut him, because I kept expecting him to get healthy. Damned Huskers.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
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