Sabrmetric Data Shows 7.16 ERA Isn’t So Bad If Accomplished By Lefty
After careful consideration, sabrmetricians across the country agree that high ERA’s thrown by lefties are more valuable to a team than high ERA’s thrown by righties. “Technically, a lefty who puts up a 7.16 ERA allows the same number of runs as a righty with a 7.16 ERA,” statistical guru Jackie Ballgame said in a press conference on the groundbreaking discovery. “But it’s the WAY that the lefty allows those runs. Lefties throw the other team completely off. Hitters might score five, six, seven runs every time you run a given lefty out there, sure, but they’re completely off balance. It’s all in the numbers.”
That analysis has raised questions among the baseball faithful. What if, say, a righty like Brian Bannister or Luke Hochevar puts up an ERA of 4.5 and a lefty puts up a 7.0? Is that 7 ERA somehow better than the 4.5? “I know it sounds wacky to the common fan,” says Ballgame, “but us stat gurus, we’ll take the lefty even in that scenario. Let me break it down for you. The righty is allowing in the neighborhood of three fewer runs to cross the plate per nine innings. But you have to keep in mind the way they’re allowing those runs. Against the righty, the runs are crossing the plate in an orderly, no-nonsense fashion. Against the lefty, it’s a completely different story. The runners are disoriented. The ball was coming at them from a different angle when they hit it over the wall, so they might be running the bases sideways or backwards. The players in the opposing dugout are confused, the opposing manager just doesn’t know what to make of the situation. And that’s what you want, that’s what the lefty gives you, a total state of confusion on your opponents’ bench.”
The Royals, in their low-key, tight-lipped style of late won’t admit that they’re using such complex statistics to assist them in putting their rotation together this year. But you can bet they’ve got this analysis in mind.
Manager Trey Hillman all but admitted recently that Horacio Ramirez would have to “pitch his way out of” a rotation spot despite getting regularly shelled in his last stint as a starter in Seattle. "He's going to have to pitch his way out of it," Hillman acknowledged. "Am I fence-riding a little bit? Yeah, I am because he's got to pitch well enough to seize one of those spots. But, at the same time, we have a preference that we'd like to have a left-hander in that rotation."
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Comments
+1
And, for the record, I still don’ t think Ho-Ram is going to be in the rotation. I think he is being used to get more out of Hoch, Banny & Davies (and Ho-Ram for that matter)
BOOM! ROASTED!
I bet
that there is a higher chance of injury if you jog around the bases backwards.
Pecota, watch over us.
Sabermetric data shows that ERA is a poor way to evaluate a pitcher
Let’s ridicule HoRam with better stats.
The immoderate moderator
Are you suggesting
the size of his lower half?
Desperately Seeking Soria (Subliminally encouraging Trey to "Think Leverage, you can do it, Leverage")
LOL
Nice. But seriously, I do think looking at advanced metrics like FIP and tRA show a more mixed picture of his statistical record. Now, I don’t think for a second that he would be even decent as a starting pitcher. But his combination of low walks, lots of GB and few FB (and therefore, few HR’s) could make him a fairly effective reliever, as he was last year. Working in relief allows him to pitch mostly with his fastball and slider, mixing in fewer cutters and may fewer of his awful changeups than he has to as a starter.
The immoderate moderator
I don't yet really know anything about FIP and tRA
so I have no opinion on HoRam’s applicability to be starter vs reliever. My only belief right now is that he’s pretty much already in the rotation. As we’ve all seen, DM/TH desperately want a lefty. See Bale, John last year. (Incidentally, this is also my belief that Bloomy is already installed- but that’s for another post).
So, for me, the real questions are:
1) how long does he keep his position? (of course, depends on his performance)
2) who goes to Omaha (or relief)? (Banny, Che, Davies?) I assume we would send him to Omaha to continue to start than put him in relief duty.
Desperately Seeking Soria (Subliminally encouraging Trey to "Think Leverage, you can do it, Leverage")
The good news
If he gets into the rotation, and he sucks in that role as much as most of us think he will, then he probably won’t be in there long. The Royals have other options and Hillman is willing to change horses (as he did with Tomko).
And if HoRam is in the rotation, I really have no idea who is the odd man out. Hochevar has an option, so it would be easy to send him Omaha. I think Bannister might have an option left, so he could go, but I really doubt they’ll do that. I’d bet a lot of money that Bannister starts the season in the rotation. Davies is out of options. He can’t go to Omaha without being exposed to waivers, and if the Royals did that, they’d lose him. Davies could, of course go to the bullpen, where I think he’d be exceptional, but I haven’t heard of the Royals even considering that so far. Perhaps Hochevar is the odd man out to start the season, which at least helps to buy the Royals an additional year of team control over him, but would still be a stupid move in my opinion.
The immoderate moderator
Defending Jackie
I too, was disturbed that they seem so inclined to give the edge to a lefty just because he’s a lefty. What concerned me was reading the explanation – that our division has many tough LH batters, and we play half our games within the division, so it’s imperative to get a lefty in the rotation.
Of course, this assertion was not backed up with any stats or anything, so let me throw a few out there from the 2008 season.
Here are our central rivals batting lines vs RH pitchers last season:
Detroit 267/336/434; OPS = 770
Minnesota 280/344/413; OPS = 757
Chicago 267/332/443; OPS = 776
Cleveland 261/335/423; OPS = 758
Here are the same vs LH pitchers:
Detroit 284/355/474; OPS =828
Minnesota 275/332/397; OPS = 729
Chicago 251/332/458; OPS = 790
Cleveland 266/349/427; OPS = 775
Once again the stats bear no resemblance to the point trying to be made by the Royals front office (our at least their front office mouth pieces in the media).
Don’t get me wrong – I think the Royals should go with the best 5 rotation candidates they can find, regardless of if they are LH or RH; I just am against what appears to be a pre-set disposition to favor one candidate over other(s) based solely on their handedness.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Feb 17, 2009 4:26 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Might be a good idea to spot start
HoRam or Bale versus the Twinkies
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

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