Major League Baseball Draft Preview
by nwroyal on Feb 18, 2009 1:33 PM EST
in News
76 comments
Greetings Royals Fans! I’m NWroyal (you can also call me Darren) and I’ll be one of the new voices writing for Royals Review. I’ll be writing mostly about the draft and the minors. I grew up in
We are less than 4 months away from the draft. All around the country you are beginning to hear the ping of the bat as colleges and some warm weather high schools start kicking off the season. The Royals will have the 12th pick in the 1st round. That will be the longest they have had to wait to pick since they took Billy Butler at #14 in 2004. (The Royals have been in the top 14 of the draft since 1996). This year’s draft looks to have one elite talent but it has some depth after that. The great unknown is how strapped for cash teams will be. Will they look for signability picks (especially with many of the top prospects being advised by Scott Boras)? That could play to the Royals advantage since they have not shied away from
1. Nationals
2. Mariners
3. Padres
4. Pirates
5. Orioles
6. Giants
7. Braves
8. Reds
9. Tigers
10. Nationals (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Aaron Crow)
11.
12. Royals
The top prospect in the draft is
http://goaztecs.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/strasburg_stephen00.html
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Stephe-Strasburg.shtml
Alex White
White is North Carolina Junior who will probably be drafted in the top 5. The right-hander has a good fastball/slider combo but his control is a little spotty. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/Alex-White.shtml
Kyle Gibson
The Missou right-hander is known for his slider. If he doesn’t come up with an offspeed pitch, his future might be in the bullpen.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Kyle-Gibson.shtml
Andrew Oliver
Oliver has pitched for
Update: Oliver won his appeal is and is eligible to pitch for
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/O/Andrew-Oliver.shtml
Aaron Crow
Crow was drafted 9th overall by the Nationals and didn’t sign. He will pitch in the independent league this spring. Crow had a great Junior year at Missou going 13-0, preceded by a phenomenal summer of 07 at
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Aaron-Crow.shtml
Others to watch:
Kendall Volz: big right-hander who future may lie in the bullpen
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/V/Kendal-Volz.shtml
Mike Minor: polished lefty who is a safe bet
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Michael-Minor.shtml
College position players
Grant Green
Grant Green is the SS at
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Grant-Green.shtml
Dustin Ackley
Dustin Ackley might be the CF for
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Dustin-Ackley.shtml
via grfx.cstv.com
Others to watch:
Robbie Shields is a SS at
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/Kentrail-Davis.shtml
High School Pitchers
Matt Purke
When it comes to HS pitchers, there are two names that have separated themselves from the pack: Purke and Matzek. They are both explosive HS lefties. Purke has both filthy stuff and knowledge of what to do with. He is tall and skinny and as he fills out could gain velocity on the fastball that already sits in the low 90s.
Tyler Matzek
Most people I’ve read prefer Matzek slightly to Purke. Matzek doesn’t throw quite as hard but he his slider, curve and changeup are more developed.
Others to watch:
Shelby Miller RHP
Jacob Turner RHP Righthander from outside
High School Hitters
Donovan Tate CF
Donovan Tate is going to make somebody look really smart or really stupid. He is one of the best athletes in the draft in a long time. He’s a CF with a great arm, great speed, and great power. He’s the kind of player that Dayton Moore dreams about at night—but he probably won’t make it past the Braves (he’s from Georgia and not many of those players get past the Braves). He is also a top rated football player who is advised by
Austin Maddox C
If, for the third straight year, the Royals want to draft one of the best power hitters in the draft, they could go for high-schooler Austin Maddox. He has a cannon for an arm (and could be a first round talent as a pitcher). Maddox won’t be 18 until May but is already stands 6’ 3" tall—so there is some question about if his body will hold up at catcher. But the reports on his defense are good.
Rankings:
I would rank them:
- Stephen Strasburg
- Grant Green
- Dustin Ackley
- Tyler Matzek
- Alex White
- Matt Purke
- Donovan Tate
- Aaron Crow
- Kyle Gibson
- Andrew Oliver
- Austin Maddox
- Mike Minor
- Kentrail Davis
- Shelby Miller
- Jacob Turner
Not that rankings mean a whole lot this early in the season. I would say the talent begins to drop off after #7 or 8 (I don't know what to think of Crow at this point). We will give updates on the college players once they get into their season. High School are difficult to get much info on. The Royals might still get a chance at one of the better players because players always drop for either signability or just weirdness (Justin Smoak). I don't see any of the top college guys dropping all the way to #12 but I'm hoping that either Matzek or Purke will be available. Either one of them would give us a high ceiling, polished (at least for a high schooler) lefty. Let me know your draft thoughts.
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its still weird seeing that the Royals will have the 12th pick
the last time the Royals were this low, was 2004, when they were 14th (Billy Butler)
by royalsreview on Feb 18, 2009 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
if we had lost one more game...
we would be picking around #8 overall
by nwroyal on Feb 18, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
donovan tate!
we need to tank for tate in the year after 08
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on Feb 18, 2009 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
why is everything underlined?
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on Feb 18, 2009 2:11 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
and the name, reply, and actions buttons
are brighter.
Odd.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
by Warden11 on Feb 18, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
anyone else listening to Bill Simmons bitching about
basketball stats (and now he’s bitching about baseball “nerdification” and how it’s ruining the fun of baseball… he doesn’ t have time to learn about “VORP” and what “nerdy stats” people have)… “he wasn’t want that to happen to basketball.”
“It’s a discussion, we’re all throwing out opinions.”
Just like Evolution versus Fundamentalism, or Newtonian versus Aristotelian physics…
Gotta love selective anti-intellectualism…
You’re right, Bill, you should be offended. You’re just a fan, not a guy who follows sports for a living.
Hollinger (sneakily) points out that scouts (in all sports) act just as arrogant as stats guys.
Sorry, just getting it off my chest.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 18, 2009 2:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Stats
Are what you make of it. It can bog the fun of the game down (as it seems to have squeezed the life out of Neyer) or it can enhance your enjoyment of the game. I don’t see it as an inherent negative – Simmons is all wet on this.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 18, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now that Reils is with ESPN
Simmons just keeps looking better and better
by royalsreview on Feb 18, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i heard it...
seems like his point was that (for him) it’s more fun to debate who the best player/shooter/batter/pitcher/rebounder is than to debate the arcane methodologies behind how the best p/s/b/p/r is determined. i kind of agree. so much of baseball debate today gets hijacked by talk about methodology.
suppose i say that i think Alex Gordon will have a better career than Evan Longoria even though virtually every Chone, Pecota, etc projection says otherwise. i’m left with two options: 1) use some subjective argument that carries no truck with knowledgeable fans and which quickly devolves into cromagnon v. propellorhead name calling or 2) debate the way the projections are made. either way, the debate becomes very meta- very quickly. it can be very unsatisfying.
think of how many myths have been shattered by sabermetrics during the last twenty years. “That guy’s SO CLUTCH!!” “Hit ‘em where they ain’t.” “Big players make big plays in big games.” “A walk’s as good as a hit” “He just knows how to win.”
Bill Simmons is a writer. He’s interested in narrative. He’s not alone. Most sportswriters are the same way. These are English and Lit majors, not econ majors. Don’t tell me why the joke is funny, just make me laugh.
The Last Word on EVERYTHING
by Billex Gordler on Feb 18, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I get that
and I listen to/read him for that reason. But let’s face it — Simmons most other sportswriters also like to pose as “experts” when the occasion arises. They clearly often (mostly?) speak as their evaluations are supposed to have objective weight. They aren’t meant as merely “expressive.”
Simmons, despite his departures from many aspects of traditional sportswriting, is like them in this way (and this turns out to be Plato’s real problem with the “poets,” by the way) — he’s a good writer who people like reading. And (and this is particularly the case with basketball for him, but comes up in baseball as well) he also likes the aura of aurthority this gives him, and he frequently slips into that mode, like talking about Manny’s OPS and stuff. However, what he (and "they") doesn’t like is when he gets called on it — when people point out that he’s moved from expression to evaluation, and then Simmons/Heyman/Plaschke/Olney (although Buster is oddly the most humble) get depants, and we remember they’re just guys who report/give opinions, not experts, like we/they convinced ourselves/themselves they were.
That is what they don’t like. And then they fall back on the “I’m just a fan, just let me enjoy the game.” Well, fine. But real fans don’t get paid (and handsomely) for their emotions.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 18, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
...
Columnists get paid to entertain. They’re no different than Rush Limbaugh. They have no obligation to be rigorous or consistent.
But anyway, there’s a couple things happening in that conversation. The point that he makes at first is the one that I disagree most with. He said that he thinks that PER overrates Speights. But it seems to me that PER is most useful in identifying guys like Speights. I mean, who needs an advanced statistic to tell him that Wade, Lebron, Kobe, Duncan and Howard are the best players in the game?
Which leads to your point: Simmons has seen how sportswriters’ baseball expertise has eroded in the face of SABR and doesn’t want to see that happen in basketball. I don’t think he’s defensive about his status as an expert as much as he concerned about the nature of sports dialogue. Baseball research is to a point where he can’t make a subjective point about how awesome Manny is without being barraged by folks reminding him how Bay’s just as good and cheaper and younger. It’s the equivalent of me telling my meteorologist friend how beautiful the weather was yesterday and then him telling me that actually the pollen count was really high yesterday and that today is the clearer day.
Most sportswriters start with the point they’re trying to make and then use statistics to support their argument. And for better or worse, there’s almost always going to be a way to refute their work both because they’re not stat experts and because rarely do stats fit into a tidy narrative.
The Last Word on EVERYTHING
by Billex Gordler on Feb 18, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Moneyball
Anybody see Michael Lewis’ article in the Times? Basically Moneyball for the NBA. I like the analysis, but don’t care about the NBA in general.
Go away! Guys, you're gonna wake up my Mom!
by David Howards Legacy on Feb 18, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Talk about a sport that could use someone exploiting inefficiencies
The contracts for some of these bench players is really staggering. Then again, in the NBA, a bloated albatross contract becomes quite valuable towards the end because of the cap.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 18, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but do't forget
salary caps will restore our national innocence!
the weird effect of making Chris Mihm somehow weirdly valuable is just an annoying side-effect
by royalsreview on Feb 19, 2009 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's fine then
if he’s wiling to concede in the face of evidence that his opinions aren’t based on anything. I assume he also thinks his various rankings are meaningless as anything other than poetry, too.
I’m glad we’re on the same page: sportswriters (and journalists in general when writing opinion pieces): — it’s all about form. We don’t have to take the content seriously, since they don’t mean it that way. No need to argue, since everyone apparently knows their opinions are likely to be worthless, since they can’t be bothered to, you know, learn about the area they’re writing about.
Great way to make a living.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 18, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ah yes, the snark...
Right on cue.
Maybe I wasn’t clear: the reason sportswriters’ stories can be refuted is that their narratives rely largely on causal relationships that are impossible to prove.
For example, in 2007 Dutton reported that Greinke credited David Riske for his late-season improvement. Now, the hypothetical stock stathead response to that story is that actually David Riske hasn’t shown to improve young, emotionally fragile pitchers’ performances before and actually Greinke threw just as well in 2004 without Riske and that that season could have happened with or without Riske’s help and that any supposed linkage between Riske’s tutelage and Greinke’s performance is pure speculation, voodoo, santeria, magic talk.
In other words, if it doesn’t show up in the numbers then it doesn’t matter.
You know how old school baseball writers sound when they criticize statheads for not being in the clubhouse and following the team on a daily basis and say that statgeeks can’t be bothered to, you know, learn about the area they’re writing about? That’s how you sound.
The Last Word on EVERYTHING
by Billex Gordler on Feb 19, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fair enough
I’ll stop with my incessant blog posts about (Player X) being “In the best shape of his life!”, (Player Y) “bring a lot of leadership and a calming influence int he clubhouse,” because I just don’t know.
In return, if the writers could cut down on their rare assertions about the relative quality of players, etc. Then we’ll all be happy. I know it’s all my fault. I’m the one constantly writing about how Sportswriters’ folksy anecdotes are “ruining the game today,” after all.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 19, 2009 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
opposite day...
this has to be a record for sarcasm. not a single straight comment in two consecutive posts!!
The Last Word on EVERYTHING
by Billex Gordler on Feb 19, 2009 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
here's the thing, actually (take II)
On one hand you’re right. I get sick of bloggers ripping on the “mainstream media” constantly. It gets annoying. and I actually like Simmons.
What i don’t like is the inconsistent claim to 1) on the one hand, really know what is going on in the game, and then 2) the refusal to even learn enough about the new stats to say they are wrong.
’
Now, I don’t know enough about the basketball stuff to judge one way or the other. It’s the attitude that gets me. When Simmons is saying what’s good about the new stats and what the limits are, that’s fine, that’ sj just a rational give-and-take. But when he veers into the “some of the new stats are good, but when I don’t like them they are ruining our national innocence the game,” that pisses me off. And Simmons isn’t the worst. But in any case, it’s still a dogmatic appeal to authority. You know, the dogmas the media is supposed to challenge. I guess when it’s their own…
Frankly, I’m not even being inconsistent. A “stats geek” doesn’t worry about the clubhouse. She/he isn’t a psycholoogist, he’s just trying to get at what is going on. If he’s writing on sports pschology or group attitudes, then yeah, he needs that access, or info from the people who do.
ON the other hand, when a sportswriter asserts that “small ball wins games” or something (random example, then the clubhouse access doesn’t matter. Is that true or not? And if someone comes up with reasons it isn’t, saying "you weren’t in the clubhouse, you don’t know’ is a non sequitor.
Whatever, I basically agree that they’re entertainers. Fine. I am entertained by Bill Simmons. I’m glad I don’t have to take his opinions about baseball seriously anymore.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 19, 2009 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yowza, that's some fast fingers...
Devilishly fast, in fact.
I’m not sure that it is inconsistent. you can both believe that the new stats are great and helpful AND that the certainty the stats engender is really frustrating. shit, ten years ago i knew for a fact that pitchers had no control over a batted ball and five years ago i made fun of guys who made fun of VORP and now i make fun of VORP. i’ve gotten what i need out of statistical analysis and i’m happy to stay a little behind the cutting edge because it’s pretty clear that if it’s important, i’ll hear about it and incorporate it into my understanding of the game.
i have sympathy for old baseball writers… they’re just old schoolers trying to survive and are no different than my parents trying to figure out how to iChat. they’d rather just call on their landline, even though it’s no easier and more expensive. they do what they do and it works and adds to my enjoyment of the game. but i take any strategy/tactical talk from them with a huge grain of salt.
The Last Word on EVERYTHING
by Billex Gordler on Feb 19, 2009 1:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is the BEST time...
to gather a little bit of information on the top guys. That way I have some idea about who to read about and look for video on during the hs/college season.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Feb 19, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ugh, this is horrible
Sorry, let me just say one more thing. I hate that I do sound so dogmatic (even though I’m write).
I write a lot of stuff just to be silly. I mean, it’s all for fun, ‘cause I’m not getting rich doing this.
But when I’m just goofing around in a post, that’s what it is: goofing around. If someone else gets a chuckle out of it, so much the better.
But when I’m attempting (and usually failing miserably) to seriously analyze something, that’s different. I’m trying to get at the truth.
And I try to separate one from the other, or better, not confuse the two. I think Simmons sometimes does that. And in a similar way, I agree that we do care about sports because of the subjective, human element. I like reading those stories, they add to my enjoyment of the game. But then keep it there — in the narrative mode, as you put it. Don’t get it confused with a real analysis of the game.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 19, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you hit on the key issue
the establishment thinks they know the game, and know the only/best way to know the game already
What i don’t like is the inconsistent claim to 1) on the one hand, really know what is going on in the game, and then 2) the refusal to even learn enough about the new stats to say they are wrong.
in one sense, this is natural, and sportswriters are far from the only people to be guilty of this. on the other, at a professional level, its pretty damn pathetic. professionals are supposed to stay up on their craft, learn new tools, etc. not just get to a level and stop. even if you account for the fact that simmons is an entertainer, its akin to someone in television or film just not following new trends/actors/methods on principal, because they way they did it 1996 was good enough then and should be now
by royalsreview on Feb 19, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now you've got me trying to remember what the "hit shows" and moveis were in /96
Friends… Seinfeld in its prime… ER (Xenu just end it already. No one cares.)…
I’m pretty sure Scrubs was on, too, because, like ER, it’s been on forever, but I’ve never watched an ep no matter h ow good people said it was.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 19, 2009 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dude
Scrubs doesn’t even pre-date 9/11.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on Feb 19, 2009 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that was supposed to be a joke
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by devil_fingers on Feb 19, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah...
i don’t need my sportswriters to separate the stuff for me. i can do it myself. i love reading almost anything about the royals even if the analysis is trash. even if it’s as soft as a e-weekly profile of the jonas bros. it all interests me. but i’m smart enough to know where to go for my statistical analysis and even-tempered enough not to mind when sportswriters wander out of their depth in an analysis piece.
The Last Word on EVERYTHING
by Billex Gordler on Feb 19, 2009 1:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
I’m sorry for hijacking the comments on this post. I apologize especially to nwroyal, whose excellent writeup on the draft I accidently hijacked because I was listening to a podcast while reading along… ADD is not a toy, kids…
One thing I wanted to add is that, especially when I’m at the ballpark, and usually when watching with friends, I try to keep the “statspeak” or whatever out of it, or at least to a minimum (unless someone is into hit). It can be annoying as hell, and when I’m “there,” I want to cheer, boo, and bitch like everyone else. Or at least just make fun of the poor kid who bought an “Eckstein” Blue Jays replica jersey…
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by devil_fingers on Feb 19, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm sorry too...
i meant to write about the draft post and somehow got distracted…great post nwroyal. can’t wait to see how the draft prospects perform this year.
The Last Word on EVERYTHING
by Billex Gordler on Feb 19, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but Ritalin is
Desperately Seeking Soria (Subliminally encouraging Trey to "Think Leverage, you can do it, Leverage")
by kabrink on Feb 22, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm right, too
this is just embarrassing. I’m sorry. So sorry. My cousin taught me to type with this program from the Dominican… I was just really young… 31, young and naive. I wish I’d gone to secretarial school instead of grad school.
And too my blogmates
(trying to work up fake tears… grimace, long, awkward pause)…
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by devil_fingers on Feb 19, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But Simmons isn't an expert, nor does he even pretend to be.
I mean, come on. Has he EVER beaten his wife in picking football games? Not only does he throw his own lack of smarts up there for us all to see, he turns over part of his blog to her so she can gloat.
He IS a fan. Anyone who reads his stuff and expects any different is missing the boat.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on Feb 19, 2009 2:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
true enough
but reading this line:
Has he EVER beaten his wife
the first time made take twice…
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by devil_fingers on Feb 19, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
simmons is awesome at what he does...
which is writing entertaining articles about nonsense mostly. However, i do thoroughly enjoy his NBA analysis. For some reason, even though I love the NBA, I cannot find any writers that I can stomach other than Simmons. You get alot of the nonsense with his NBA stuff too, but theres also some genuinely good stuff in there too.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Feb 19, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've only browsed a few sites and youtube clips
But the guys that stand out to me that will likely be available when the Royals select are:
P Jacob Turner – seems like a clone of Melville, very smooth delivery
C Austin Maddox – seems like the real deal, although I don’t like catchers in the first round
SS Mychal Givens – seems like a very smooth fielder who could grow into his frame and develop some pop
There’s also a catcher at Indiana, forget his name, but his college stats look terrific and he’s projected as a late first rounder. Again, catchers.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 18, 2009 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Josh Phegley
is the catcher you are thinking of and his bat is good—also more walks than k’s—don’t know much about his defense. but a polished college bat doesn’t sound like DM material—although perhaps there might be a slight shift now that Ladnier is gone.
Givens is somebody that there is a lot of debate about whether he should be a SS or a pitcher.
by nwroyal on Feb 18, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've seen him pitch on youtube
Sidearmer which is cool, but looks like he projects as a reliever, which isn’t worth a first rounder.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 18, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't believe DM is opposed to college players
as much as people might think. But, i’m beginnig to think that he will go after his favorite bat in the first round unless the best choice is CLEARLY pitching.
by 9il on Feb 18, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nice
i’m excited to see Oliver and Gibson pitch this year when they come to Lincoln.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Feb 18, 2009 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd be more excited if Oliver was his first name
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by devil_fingers on Feb 18, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
underrated:oliver,
overrated:random baseball names like austin, shelby, donovan, walker, landon, tanner, etc
by wildthang on Feb 18, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
raise your hand if you wanted Smoak?
by royalsreview on Feb 18, 2009 3:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
oh no, I'm not falling for that trick
I was for Hosmer all the way. He’s going to be better than Pujols, A-Rod, and Tebow combined.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 18, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it is literally not possible to be better than tebow
that is like dividing by zero or something
by royalsreview on Feb 18, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Raised Hand
I was loud about Smoak being the guy I wanted over just about anybody else in the entire draft, only rivaled by Alvarez and Beckham (HS version).
That being said, I didn’t have an inherent problem with Hosmer. He’s an amazingly talented hitter. By no means was I angry like I would have been had they gone with Crow or Skipworth or Alonzo or Castro. Those would have been deal-breakers.
I have good friends who are Rangers fans. They were literally doing cartwheels, and for good reason. They got at worth the third best talent in the draft when by all means they should have been trying to decide between a bunch of lesser talents.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on Feb 18, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty much my thoughts
My preference was Smoak, but I wasn’t objecting over Hosmer.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 18, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Best way I can come up with to say it:
Not MY choice, but defensible.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on Feb 18, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
correction
at WORST the third best talent
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on Feb 18, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hey nwroyal....
Ithought I was one of the very few in this neck of the woods….Im in Vancouver, WA-where are you at?
by royalsfanatic on Feb 18, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
there's a number of us
in Seattle.
Desperately Seeking Soria (Subliminally encouraging Trey to "Think Leverage, you can do it, Leverage")
by kabrink on Feb 18, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm south of you
I live outside of Eugene, OR.
by nwroyal on Feb 18, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
beavers vs. omaha
you ever make it up for the AAA game LMK and I’ll buy you a widmir hef
by royalsfanatic on Feb 18, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haven't been to a beaver game...
if I go, I’ll let you know. Eugene used to be the Royals SS affiliate (before I lived up here). folks still remember Mike Sweeney fondly.
by nwroyal on Feb 18, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Add another one to the mix
Salem, Oregon here (Liberty, MO native)!
No outs to go!
by 45degreesnorth on Feb 19, 2009 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Max Stassi and Josh Phegley
Stassi is very advanced for a High School kid. BA calls him a gym rat and one of their best overall hitters with plenty of power in the bat. He is a 3rd generation catcher so he has the defensive tools to get the job done. Basically he would be the equivalent of getting a college experienced player out of a High Schooler. 5’10 185 he is definitely a catcher profile. High School players are all over the board during the season so while he is rated 31st currently he could easily fly up boards.
Phegley is someone who swings the bat well but some scouts believe he has a long swing. Hard to argue with the results thus far though and he scored quite well in Lincoln Hamiltons forecasting for college players. I think he could be available to KC with their supplemental pick if Grudz would get signed.
Luckily I live in Omaha and work in Lincoln so I will be checking out Crow (indy league), Scheppers (indy league), Oliver (OSU), Gibson (Mizzou), Volz(Baylor) as well as some Juco games and Creighton games. Baseball is getting closer Woohoo !
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Feb 18, 2009 3:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cool link
Thanks for posting.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 18, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm calling it'll be another boras agent
i don’t think DM goes after his players or that they are any more “comfortable” dealing with each other than other gms and agents, but that DM is more willing to spend on the draft than some teams and as a result willing to go with a tougher agent to get the talent he likes.
So, i fully expect another Boras client to slide, this time to us, and we’ll take him because he’ll be DM’s favorite of what’s available. I’d be willing to bet on it.
by 9il on Feb 18, 2009 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll bet you
The guys that are Boras clients above (Green, Strassburg, Ackley) will not fall to KC at 12. Now KC could definitely take a Boras client (K. Davis) but it wouldn’t be considered a fall. Those three Green, Strass and Ackley are total studs and won’t be passed up that many times. Strassburg will command 10million and the Nats will give it to him, Green draws Tulo/Longoria comps and won’t fall farther than the Pads and Ackley is Dave Magadan with wheels so unless he is injured he won’t fall out of the Top 5.
Who do you think will fall that far? I’ll bet but if they take a Boras client projected below 12 then we’ll consider it a draw.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Feb 18, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it appears i got carried away/wasn't as well informed as i thought
for some reason i had it in my head from some other artical, that several of these players were boras clients when they were not.
by 9il on Feb 18, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm the one guy you'll find
Probably the only guy you will find who wouldn’t take Strasburg #1 overall. I’d take Green every day of the week. Two basic reasons, 1) I don’t like drafting pitchers in the top half of the first round and if there’s anybody who is plausibly better, I take that guy. In this draft right now that probably means Green is the only guy who meets the definition, but he does, because 2) elite up the middle guys who have advanced, high ceiling bats and really good gloves are the #1 best thing ever.
If I can at all help it, I never spend 10 million bucks on a guy who has a 1 in 5 shot of destroying his labrum before he sees AA. I’ve been burned before when “shadow drafting”. Brad Lincoln will be a name that haunts me for the rest of my days.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on Feb 18, 2009 4:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Some other draft thoughts
I have a list of guys I’m kind of following leading into this season. The list of players will probably change as some guys surge and other slide, but these guys have something I like.
Matt Davidson- 3B, HS (California), he’s a big kid with a good arm and he fits with Hosmer/Moustakas in that has a gigantic power ceiling. But because of his frame, he may not stick at 3B, pushing him to the outfield or first base.
Jake Marisnick- OF- HS (California), he’s more polished than most HS hitters in this class and he’s a good athlete, but he doesn’t jump out as a huge ceiling guy at this point. He had a good summer on the showcase circuit. He could jump into the top 10 or he could be Robbie Grossman version 2.0 (a good HS OF who slipped big time last year and was picked up by the Pirates and is a sleeper)
Bobby Borchering- 3B- HS (Florida) and Randal Grichuk- OF- HS (Texas) yeah, another couple of HS bats.
Matt den Dekker- CF- U of Florida, a pretty good defensive center fielder who hit .333/.419/.507 with more walks than strikeouts and a perfect 20 for 20 on the bases. Kind of a gut feel on my part as nobody else seems to have him in the top 20 prospects.
Luke Bailey- C- HS (Georgia) I like him better than Maddox. YMMV
On players that were mentioned, I don’t really know what to think of Robbie Shields and Kentrail Davis, but I’m tracking both of them pretty closely. With Shields you have to figure out how much you dock him for being an NCAA D2 guy, though the fact that he’s done well in summer leagues against D1 talent speaks well. And with Davis, it’s just weird to think of a corner outfielder that is 5’7" being a top 12-15 pick. I’m not saying that it’s WRONG, just weird. He’s a full 3 inches shorter than Brian Giles, 2 inches shorter than Dustin Pedroia. You just don’t see many baseball players with the Maurice Jones-Drew build.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on Feb 18, 2009 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Davidson
+1 on him. I think he should definitely be mentioned in the same breath as the other top HS guys. Sounds like he has huge power.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Feb 18, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Davidson
I read two scouting reports on him—both mentioned huge power but one said he had a short stroke with good defense. The other mentioned how long his swing was and how his defense is awful. so we shall see…
by nwroyal on Feb 18, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
interesting
either way, it’ll be interesting to see what they do in the draft this next draft. pretty big difference between the #2 and #3 picks than the #12 pick that we’ll have this year.
my absolute dream scenario would have Ackley fall to us. i love that guy. he can hit, hit, hit, hit and he has great plate discipline. i want to compare him to a center field version of Joe Mauer, although that might be a tad generous. still, i think that he’s going to rake.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Feb 18, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like den Dekker
I’m bullish on Kentrail Davis, but I tend to think college outfielders in the first rounds are generally bad bets. Didn’t Rany’s analysis show them as having the worst track record in the draft.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 18, 2009 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They trailed all other COLLEGE hitters
They still beat all high school hitting groups in the 1984-1999 sample and high school groups other than catcher(!!!) and third base in the 1992-1999 subset.
And the analysis on college hitters in general was that college first basemen were the absolute best bets in the first round by a mile. After that shortstops and second basemen did well, followed by the other groups. In the 1992-1999 sample, the difference between college outfielders and other college hitting groups was larger. Rany said that he was of the opinion that the difference was possibly attributable to a tendency to go with “toolsy” college outfielders.
Since the end of his study, there haven’t been too many first round college outfielders taken. In 2000, you had Joe Borchard (bust), 2001: Gabe Gross (meh), John Ford Griffin (bust) 2002; Brian Anderson (bust), David Murphy (maybe), Brad Snyder (probably bust), and Carlos Quentin (definitely not bust); 2004 Richie Robnett (bust); 2005 Trevor Crowe (probably bust); John Mayberry (maybe bust, certainly a tools pick), Jacoby Ellsbury (not bust); 2006 Drew Stubbs (too early to tell), Tyler Colvin (not looking good); there hasn’t been one since 2006. It certainly looks like a mixed bag.
Take from that what you will.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on Feb 18, 2009 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 19, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Draft Discussions arleady?
I like to wait until there’s video available on these guys, then I take what I see, compare and contrast with the reports and form my opinion and my likes and dislikes of players in the draft.
With that said Strassburg is the real deal.
I also like Tate, Maddox, and Stassi who kcscolin mentioned above.
by Royal from Queens on Feb 18, 2009 7:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i think this is the BEST time...
to get some preliminary info on the top guys. That way you can follow up with those guys during the hs/college seasons.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Feb 19, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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