Gut Response: Are the Royals Better Than the Indians?
by Freneau on Feb 2, 2009 10:54 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintAs we continue through the AL Central...
Last week, nearly two-thirds of you claimed that, yes, the Royals are better than the Tigers. To me, the interesting thing about the 63%-36% victory for "yes" last weekend was how stable it was: from a very early stage of the voting yes had a 60-70% number, and it stayed near that figure right through to the current total of exactly 400 votes (cool). Personally, I voted no, but I'll take such a large consensus as a sign that I may be wrong.
Now, let us turn to the Indians, a team that, unlike Detroit, finished ahead of the Royals in 2008.
| '07 Pythag | '08 Pythag | |
| Indians | 91-71 | 85-77 |
| Royals | 74-88 | 72-90 |
Players Lost: Jeff Stevens, Franklin Gutierrez, Scott Elarton, Non-Insane Career Year Cliff Lee
Players Added: Carl Pavano, Kerry Wood, Luis Valbuena, Mark DeRosa, Joe Smith
To the players lost field you can probably add Andy Marte and probably Brendan Donnelly, and, more broadly, a host of guys shipped out during the '08 season: C.C. Sabathia, Casey Blake, Paul Byrd and Joe Borowski. (As always, let me know if I've left anyone out.)
Since 2005, the Indians have been all over the place, in part because, for whatever reason, they've had an on again off again relationship with Pythagoras. (Err... I mean, with a hot female version of Pythagoras, an eternally youthful hot female version as well, not a 2600 year old who liked weird music and math. Must maintain mandatory compulsory hetero & borderline inappropriate dynamic on sports blogosphere at all times.) So anyway, with the Indians and this sexy Greek chick, sometimes she's like all cool and all and down with anything and other times she makes them watch a boring movie on USA that takes four hours with commercials and then she falls asleep just after telling Eric Wedge he looks fifteen years older than he actually is.
| Actual Record | Pythag | |
| '05 | 93-69 | 96-66 |
| '06 | 78-84 | 89-73 |
| '07 | 96-66 | 91-71 |
| '08 | 81-81 | 85-77 |
For whatever reason -- quibble with Pythag as a tool, lack of clutchness or chemistry, bad/good bullpens -- the Indians have had two fairly bizarre seasons where things just didn't work. Still, over the last four years the Tribe have average 87 real wins and 90 expected wins a year, putting them right on the cusp of contention, and theoretically in the sweet spot where select free agent moves and trades should be especially beneficial.
So, as we did with the Tigers, what does your gut tell you: are the Royals, going into 2009, now better than the Indians? No qualifications, no probability clouds, just yes or no.
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We have Crisp and we had Riske
Maybe in the future we can acquire Kelly Shoppach and get everyone from that trade.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
they should trade shoppach
i don’t see the fascination some have with him
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
I don’t know, it might have something to do with hitting 20 home runs in four months of regular playing time.
by Jay on Feb 8, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
my cleveland wife who doesn't have an account on this site just said
“heck no. never have and never will be.”
She Has No
Memory of the ’70’s and 80’s, does she?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 2, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
No
Drew Carey was right , Cleveland rocks. They will win the division, although it will probably be with something like 88 wins.
I also predict Kerry Wood has an awesome year, causing his third contract year to vest, then he will spend the next two years making $20 million on the DL for Cleveland.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Will he play?
Seems like he’s behind Martinez and Shoppach.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think Vmart
is going to first and Shoppach is the starter at least for now. I wouldnt be surprised though if Santana made his way up by the break.
Won’t happen. For one thing, the Indians are unlikely to carry a third catcher, and Victor won’t be departing the catcher position entirely. For another, Santana basically has never played above Single-A, and he’s still quite raw as a catcher. For another, the Indians have two decent catcher prospects who will start the year in Triple-A, Toregas and Gimenez. While neither would be permitted to block Santana long-term, they provide plenty of short-term depth and a total lack of motivation to rush Santana.
by Jay on Feb 8, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know what to make of Cleveland
I haven’t even voted yet because I just don’t know. I look at the team and I look at the roster and I’m just not very impressed. especially that starting rotation, I don’t see anything special.
The bullpen… should be pretty good.
The only thing that stands out as being “better” is the bullpen. And I have no idea how that lineup scored so many runs. Whatever, my gut tells me the Royals are better but thinking about it, the Indians are better.
by Royal from Queens on Feb 2, 2009 11:19 PM EST reply actions
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Grady Sizemore is better
better than who? Better than any single player on the Royals, and probably than anyone in the rest of the division, with the possible exceptino of Joe Mauer, unless Curtis Granderson can return to his 2007 form.
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 2, 2009 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
I agree but one player does not make a team
not to say that victor martinez, cliff lee, or jhonny peralta aren’t very good…
by Royal from Queens on Feb 3, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
I hate the Indian rotation. Especially if Carmona can't bounce back.
Is Westbrook coming back?
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I think I read that he might be back in June
But Laffey, Sowers, et. al. are pretty bad. Seem a lot like the Royals after Greinke and Meche — a bunch of #4s, some of whom might turn into #s, but also might totally bomb
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 2, 2009 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
I like our rotation alot more unles HoRam ends up in it like GMDM hinted last week.
I think that and a possible arbitration hearing with Bannister signal the end to the Bannister days in KC. I wouldn’t be shocked if he got traded prior to the end of ST. Especially if Davies and HoRam look average.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I agree that the Royals rotation might be better
I mean, who knows with Lee, but I like Greinke and Meche taken together, as a #1 and #2 than Lee and Carmona.
Although I like Banny, I do think he’s a #4 at best. Still, HoRam is a waste of time in the rotation. I think after the closers, Cleveland’s pen is better.
Even if Gordon and Butler take big steps forward, barring another miracle year from Aviles (and I still ike Aviles to be around average or a bit above next year, just not his Jeter/Everett combo from last season), they just have a massive advantage in position players. Sizemore’s an annual MVP candidate, Choo’s probably not as good as he looked, but is at least average (which is more than KC can say for any of their RF candidates), and even the crap brigade in left (Francisco, et. al.) will probablly produce better than Guillen (again )next year.
I like the DeRosa pickup for them, and combined with Cabrera and Peralta that’s a good infield.
Two good catchers in VMart and Shoppach,and if Garko continues to suck, VMart can get time at first. If Hafner is really done, they might still be able to slot in LaPorta at DH.
Like seeimginly every team in the Central, a lot of “if…(s)”
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2009 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
yep they definitely have the better lineup
but no guarantees VMart and Haffner can come back to the norms.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
yeah, i don't know what to say about Pronk
I mean, he might just be done in Sexon-esque cliff dive.
But the thing is, while I can see that he was slow and pudgy, I don’t think that “old players skills” quite fits him, because, like Cabrera, he hit for not just power, but also a good average (.300 three years in a row). So I wonder if there is some sort of injury issue… although that could be just as permanently damaging.
But with Shoppach and maybe LaPorta, they have possible backup in the minors.
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
Shoppach's in the majors, of course
wish the Royals could get Choo somehow
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
Hafner was never particularly slow or pudgy. If anything, he carried too much muscle, but he was always a fairly effective baserunner. Agree with the basic premise that the “old player skills” profile was never a good fit for him.
by Jay on Feb 8, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
Not really slow
I’d say “glacial.”
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 9, 2009 2:43 AM EST up reply actions
Your reading on Laffey is sloppy — he’s pretty good, actually. Other than that, you pretty much have the situation nailed. The Indians have a solid #1 guy, a questionable but potentially dominant #2, and no legitimate #3 until Westbrook returns in July. Then they have about eight guys who come in basically as #5 starter, many of whom have #3 upside, but all of whom are question marks.
by Jay on Feb 8, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
I guess Lee is “solid” depending on how you define that. He’s projected to pitch at the level of a pretty good #2 SP, and of course based on his history he could be better or much worse than that. Carmona is another “solid” pitcher who is on the borderline between a #2 and #3 SP with essentially no shot at dominating, but a good bet to be a groudball and innings eater (if healthy). Then Westbrook should be a reliable #3 when he comes back (if back to 100%). Laffey is an effective #4 and then there’s a pack of #5’s. So that’s an ok rotation, but light on top and thick in the middle.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 9, 2009 2:49 AM EST up reply actions
Wow the ultimate line on the Mexico-PR game
the announcer called Freddy Sandovals little soul patch a flavor savor. Censorship anyone?
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Sandoval looks good...I proposed picking him up last year
I think he could hack the defense at 2b and is a switch hitter with a little pop. .330+ in AAA last year seems pretty polished and wouldn’t cost much.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
whose system is he in
is he the guy the two of us were talking about who is an Angels farmhand…
I say go for Sean Rodriguez. That guy seems like someone who could pull an Aviles if given the chance.
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
Angels
Ya I like Rodriguez but I think he would cost more. He has always been rated as a decent prospect I believe. Sandoval has been an under the radar type of guy.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Rodriguez:
typical Angels prospect. They don’t want to trade him, but they sure as hell aren’t give him a chance to play unless they absolutely have to! If Brandon Wood can’t get a shot, how is Sean Rodriguez?
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2009 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
Blocked by Kendrick and Figgins.
Not much of a block really but they love how they play the game. Plus SeanRod got a bit of playing time last year and looked pretty rough in it.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I'm partial to college guys with decent OBP though
I also like Daegas from Boston. I think KC needs to get lots of these type of guys in the minors. OBP by osmosis !!!
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
something blah about the indians
they are a smart, budget-limited team, and subsequently have a lot of good players with undervalued skills just plugging away. paul byrd was the quintessential indian.
sizemore is the exception, although i’ve never heard him say a word
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
The Indians lost a lot last year
Fat Boy Sabathia being gone means it is all on Cliff Lee and he owned the Royals last year. If that changes this year, the Tribe could be in for a long year as their other pitchers leave something to be desired. So while the Royals aren’t necessarily better than the Indians, it’s getting closer.
Off the top of my head
Indians 89 wins
Royals 79 wins
So no the Royals aren’t better than the Indians and it’s not very close. The Royals starting pitching is better. The Indians bullpen is better. The Indians lineup and defense are much, much better.
The immoderate moderator
Hottest AL Central Fans
More Hardball wants to know who has the hottest fans in baseball. We’ll be running a set of posts over the following weeks featuring images of each teams’ hotties, with a voting poll to crown a champion. We’re started with the AL East and we’re now moving on to the AL Central. Sticking true to Major League Baseball’s roots, there will be an eight team playoff system where the winners of each division square off with the addition of a wild card team to determine who wins the pennant and represents each league in the World Series of Hotness.
Link-http://morehardball.blogspot.com/2009/02/hottest-fans-of-al-central.html
Come vote in the poll and maybe the Royals can beat out the Indians then.
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Just lookin at those pics
I can safely say KC won’t win
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Couldn't we get a shot of Tomko's wife or Greinkes
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
AJ Pierzynski?
Is it just me or does a woman become revolting by being next to AJ? The only way she could redeem herself is by doing some sort of bodily harm to him. He has an aura, like Rick James did, but instead it engenders hate upon all in his midst.
And for a poll, couldn’t they have found better pictures?
"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue."
by Joseph Landis on Feb 3, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
Extremely poor effort. The least they could have done was open it up to picture entries from actual fans (or just hot chicks looking for publicity/exposure).
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 3, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
I voted Yes.
Because I read the question wrong.
And I’m a Cleveland fan.
FFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
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It's on you when Victor Martinez morphs into Miguel Olivo
and Travis Hafner, well, just keeps on keeping on
Now there is a “before” and “after” swing analysis that might be interesting…
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
I've read a couple people like their bullpen better than the Royals
can’t say I agree with that. Yeah Farnsworth could suck but Kerry Wood could easily have his arm get jacked up. Their middle relief is just as suspect as KC’s if not more. I’ll take our bp over theirs.
Cle had a 5.12 ERA out of their pen and while Wood is solid he also is switching over to the tougher AL and hasn’t put back to back healthy complete seasons together since ’02-03
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Agreed on Wood
I also think they overpaid for him
But Rafael Perez is better than anyone in the Royals pen besides Soria. Betancourt alternates awesome seasons (2007) with crappy ones that are still better than Farns. I think some of the other guys (like Jensen Lewis) have potential to be good contributors as well.
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Adam Miller and Jon Meloan are potential impact additions too
I kind of the like Cleveland’s depth at the back end of the rotation, despite the lack of upside. Pavano is a decent gamble and has motivation to pitch, Laffey is a groundball machine who only needs a moderate improvement in control to be a solid starter, Jackson is Laffey minus some groundballs, Reyes made progress last year moving away from his extreme flyball tendencies that could help keep his HR rate around average, and Sowers will always have to walk a fine line but has time to develop into an adequate command and control lefty. If two out of that group can pitch effectively until Westbrook returns, Cleveland should do all right.
losing Leo (depth) and Ram Ram (awesomeness)
hurt the bullpen
Ho-Ram brings back some Leo-level depth, but there’s still a net loss with the Farns-Ram Ram exchange
Yeah, the bullpen is not as strong
Contract aside, Farnsworth could be useful if he can maintain a K/BB above 2.0 and his HR/FB rate returns near a normal rate of 11% (it was an unsustainable 19% in 2008, but his career mark is a still rough 12.5%). But even with a normal HR/FB rate, he gives up so many flyballs that he is always going to be homer prone, which makes him ill-suited for high leverage situations.
Tejeda is interesting as a reliever. He likely will always have control problems, but that is not as big of a concern as a reliever where his high strike out rate can offset it. Despite being even more of a flyball pitcher than Farnsworth and pitching for Texas and Philadelphia, he has posted an average HR/9 rate over his career. He was even effective against left-handed hitters last year, so the extra velocity from the move to the pen may be helping his change play up. He most likely sticks as a decent mid-leverage reliever, but I would not be surprised if he ends up as the second best reliever by the end of the year (depending on what happens with Rosa this year).
The rest of the bullpen is what is. Mahay and, to a lesser extent, Bale are solid lefties who can also face right-handed hitters. Waechter, Villarreal (if he regains his control), and Peralta can be effective in the middle innings as long as they avoid left-handed hitters in high leverage situations. The rest are replacement level.
God, I hope you're right
it was an unsustainable 19% in 2008
But, this could go higher easier than it can get lower. I think it’s safe to say that when Farns comes in we’ll all be taking a collective big breath and holding it. What a white knuckle ride it’s going to be!
meat
HR/FB
HR/FB rates for pitchers tend to regress toward the 10-11 range (kind of like how pitcher BABIP tends to regress to around .300). Very few pitchers (even the bad ones) reach the 19% level in any given season, and even fewer repeat it. Farnsworth’s next career high is 16% and his career average is 12.5%. Home runs will likely always pose a problem for Farnsworth, but it would be very surprising if he posted a HR/FB rate that high again.
I'll have to take your word on those stats
Hopefully the Kaufman park effects will also help bring it down. And, that Coco can help inside the park.
meat
No at first glance, but not a lock
I voted no, just because of recent history, but I can’t get a read on Cleveland. They have young players and potential, but only live up to it every other year (which would make this a good year). Certainly, without Hafner and Martinez, their lineup isn’t very good. I doubt that Choo will have 146 OPS+ over a full year, but Choo/Sizemore>Crisp/Guillen. We can always hope Shealy’s September wasn’t a fluke and he plays at first for the most games, but the Jacobs acquisition will probably make the right side of the field indefensible.
"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue."
I think you will find that the Indians’ year-to-year success tracks pretty closely with their bullpen ERA, as it does for most teams with quite talented but not overpowering rosters.
by Jay on Feb 8, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
27% of us are "glass half-full" people
The other 73% are “glass half-empty” or look at it statistically, ruining the whole gut notion.
"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue."
by Joseph Landis on Feb 4, 2009 3:46 AM EST up reply actions
Make that 22%
Support for “Royals>Indians” is cratering. This time, rationality carries the day.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 4, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
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