Worst Decisions Possible
by Scott McKinney on Feb 24, 2009 6:14 AM EST
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PrintIn the CHONE-based preseason power rankings fanshot, billybeingbilly and I had a little badinage about possible worst case scenario decisions the Royals could make. They are realistic possibilities that we all (or at least most of us worry about). So let's look at them in turn.
1. Willie Bloomquist will be the starting second baseman? By any reasonable measure, Bloomy sucks. The pro-Willie faction sees him as a competent utility man. I don't think anyone sees him as an acceptable starting second baseman. But Hillman does have something of a penchant for grit, etc. And Willie's middle name is "Grit, etc." So will his combination of speed, perhaps defense, grit and other intangibles be enough to win him the job?
I say: No. Anything is possible, but Callaspo can make contact and Hillman knows this team needs some offense. And then there is the Teahen possibility.
2. Billy Butler will start the season in Omaha? The Royals have a logjam of uninspiring mediocrity at the 1B/DH position, plus a high ceiling young player named Billy Butler. Only Billy has an option remaining. Do the Royals deal with the logjam by sending their best player to Omaha, while keeping the likes of Jacobs, Shealy and/or Gload? Gload is a corner-only player who is absolutely horrible there. He can't hit well enough for any corner position and his defense at first base is decent but uninspiring. In the OF, he's a Butler-like catastrophe. Butler is a key part of the future of the organization. He's one of the few players on this team likely to hit well.
I say: No. Again, the team's hitting is as weak as a kitten. Jacobs is likely to play everyday. Are they going to leave the other starting 1B/DH spot to just Shealy or Gload? I don't think so. I think Moore and Hillman recognize Butler's upside and that it needs to be developed. They also think they have a chance this year and they want the benefit of his bat immediamente.
3. Ross Gload will remain a Royal? Whether or not Butler starts the season as a Kansas City Royal or an Omaha Royal, there may or may not be room enough for Ross Gload. Now, he should have been DFA'd eight or so months ago, but Dayton Moore just doesn't see it that way. So this is an iffy proposition. The Royals will likely just carry two or three 1B/DH's. Jacobs is a mortal lock for one of those spots. Butler may or may not take another. Then there's Shealy and Gload. Shealy might be able to hit a little and his first base defense is decent. As noted above, Gload is not good at playing baseball.
I say: No. With four players in the logjam, I think Gload is likely to be the odd man out. There just isn't room for him. There might not even be room for Shealy. Moore has been willing to eat more money that and cut his losses before.
4. Horacio Ramirez will be in the rotation? Back in the Precambrian Era, someone decided that a good rotation needs at least one lefty starter. Then a bunch of people repeated it. It got passed down from baseball generation to baseball generation like a genetic disease and recent DNA tests reveal that both Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman are afflicted. They are convinced that the Royals need a lefty starter. Why? Because most batters are lefties? Well no, they aren't. There are more righty batters than lefty batters batters. Because there are some good lefty hitters in the AL Central? Yes, but there are more good righty hitters in the AL Central. So does this desire make any sense whatsoever? No. Is there any reason to believe that Horacio Ramirez would be good as a starting pitcher? No. So will this nightmare come to fruition?
I say: Yes. As much as I hate to believe it, unless HoRam implodes in spring training, or gets injured (both of which are possible), I think he'll start the season in the rotation. The only silver lining is that I think he'll pitch his way out of the rotation in a relatively short period of time, getting the Royals into the rotation they should have had to begin with.
5. Luke Hochevar will start the season in Omaha? The Royals feel like they have six legitimate contenders for the rotation. Articles about the rotation might mention Duckworth, and Dinardo, but they might as well mention me too because they have about as much chance as I do. Greinke and Meche are in. Bannister and Davies have had some success and more than a little failure. Hochevar had a bad ERA but good peripherals and a lot of groundballs. HoRam is not a decent starting pitcher, period. The problem is that only Hochevar has an option remaining (although there have been recent murmurings about Davies maybe having another option, despite everyone saying 12 months ago that Davies was using up his last option in 2008. Did he get a fourth option, as Costa did?) So Hochevar, while likely the third best pitcher in the group, may be the odd man out.
I say: Maybe. I think Moore and Hillman like Hochevar. I think they like his stuff, approach, attitude, work ethic and makeup. But I also think they like Bannister a lot, and will force themselves to put HoRam in the rotation. So I think it's between Davies and Hochevar. I think Davies would be very effective in the bullpen and god knows the pen could use a second good RHP. I really think this one is a toss-up.
So where do you stand on the these five burning, potential worst case scenario decisions? Is this just fear talking? Is this just Moore/Hillman bashing from people who assume they'll always make the wrong call? Or are these fears justified? I've got three no's, a yes and a maybe. What say you?
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absolutely agree with you about Gload, but.....
They are going to say that he can be the club’s fourth outfielder and that Shealy can’t play the outfield. That will be why he goes instead of G-load.
For me, Davies looked the best of the “other three” last year. If I were building this rotation based on last season, he’s my #3. I’m hopeful that he may have began to put it together. I’m okay if Hochever goes to Omaha to start the season if someone shows something in ST and that person doesn’t have an option remaining. That’s just part of the game. But, I expect them to keep said pitcher on a short leash (ala Brett Tomko), and have Hoch at the ready.
Yes, I'm still alive. Sorry to disappoint you.
Isn't Teahen the fourth OFer?
And aren’t there others who can be the fifth OFer when needed?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 24, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
thank you for helping me face my fears
1. I hope you are right—the domino effect of Bloomquist winning the starting job would be that it would open the door for TPJ being on the roster as the backup SS. I’ll say No.
2. I think Billy will be with the team—it sounds like he has done what they wanted him to do—conditioning, got there early etc. I’ll say No.
3. this one goes hand in hand with #2—I’ll say No.
4. Unfortunately Yes—but it may not last long.
5. No—I had to vary from your answers somewhere—I think Hochevar will win the 5th starters spot.
I would rank the decision from most harmful to least harmful
1 4 3 2 5
Most likely to least likely
4 5 1 3 2
With all the love that TPJ is getting from the coaching staff ...
he could be our starting SS with Aviles at 2nd. Stranger things have happen…
Trey said
Aviles is not working out at 2B this spring.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
My Predictions
1. No. This scenario would really make me lose all remaining hope for DM/TH
2. No.
3. No. Probably waiting to see if he has any remaining trade value and then DFA him at the deadline?
4. Yes. See TH’s boner for a lefty in the rotation, effectiveness notwithstanding.
5. No. For some reason I see the battle as between Banny and Horacio. I’m basing this solely on my gut, which is reliable.
As of now
Here is how I see the Opening Day Roster playing out:
C Miguel Olivo
1B Mike Jacobs
2B Alberto Callaspo
3B Alex Gordon
SS Mike Aviles
LF David DeJesus
CF Coco Crisp
RF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
Bench: C John Buck, IF Willie Bloomquist, UT Mark Teahen, OF Ross Gload
DFAd: IF Tony Pena, IF Esteban Geramn
SP Gil Meche
SP Zack Greinke
SP Horacio Ramirez
SP Kyle Davies
SP Brian Bannister
RP Joel Peralta
RP Doug Waechter
RP John Bale
RP Robinson Tejeda
RP Ron Mahay
RP Professor Farnsworth
RP Joakim Soria
DFAed: P Jimmy Gobble
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I accually see immy obble making the team
Not all the pitchers will make it out of ST without an injury
Also could see Rosa make team also.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 24, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
I'd like it if Rosa made the team
I heard DM in an interview last week say he really liked Rosa but that he’s going to Omaha for more seasoning.
Who knows though, injuries play a factor, and he may force their hand.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 24, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with your roster...
with the exception of Banny being moved to the pen to start the season as a long reliever/6th starter (to make room for HoRam…sigh). And I think they keep Hochevar up to be the 5th starter and DFA either Peralta (does he have an option left?) or Waechter.
Also, I think Shealy has a decent shot at knocking Gload off the roster if he has a great spring. Or, if Maier has a STELLAR spring, then he could end up with the last spot. Especially with the injury-histories of DDJ and Crisp.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 24, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's Peralta who's gone.
He was terrible every time i saw him last year. Not that Gobble was outstanding, but DM and Hillman seem to realize what he’s able to do, and i think that’s probably more valuable than Peralta who was, last year, at the fringe of being a major leaguer.
Waechter definitely has a good chance of not making the 25-man roster
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 24, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
The only way Rosa is going to get the right kind of "seasoning" for the Royals
is to play for Richmond
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 24, 2009 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
What I don't get about Gload is
that every time I read something on the Royals website, they talk about his great defense at first base, how he could be brought in for late inning defensive strategery, and it doesn’t seem to jibe with the statistics. What gives? Surely somebody in the organization can see what is in front of them, can’t they? Or are they viewing the world thru grit-colored glasses?
also, bravo for this section:
Back in the Precambrian Era, someone decided that a good rotation needs at least one lefty starter. Then a bunch of people repeated it. It got passed down from baseball generation to baseball generation like a genetic disease and recent DNA tests reveal that both Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman are afflicted.
any use of geologic terms gets the Buddyball stamp of approval.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Answer:
Long version: he seems good after watching Butler/Harvey stumble around out there, or looking at Jacobs (worse than either) as your everyday option.
Additionally, they think “scoops” are the first baseman’s primary job, rather than fielding grounders (which UZR, etc., don’t take into account). This is the traditional thinking. It is also quite questionable.
Short version: have to justify the beyond-moronic contract they gave him
Even shorter version: stupidity
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 24, 2009 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
HI - larious.
Desperately Seeking Soria (Subliminally encouraging Trey to "Think Leverage, you can do it, Leverage")
I meant that UZR/etc. don't take scoops into account
only fielding grounders
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 25, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
Davies has an option
According to Dayton. He said so in an interview last week which surprised me because one reason I thought Atlanta traded him was because he was out of options and they didn’t have time to watch him suck at the MLB level anymore.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I know Davies wasn’t out of options when Atlanta traded him in 2007 because the Royals exercised an option in 2008, which is how he spent most of the year in Omaha. What’s weird is that I read from several sources that 2008 was his last option year. I guess it isn’t. At least the Royals have more flexibility.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 24, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Gee thanks
So, do you disagree with my entire article?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 24, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
No, I just would rather not think about these yet.
You are pretty much right on with these.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I Know I'm
Repeating myself (I’m old, but at least I know it), but I’m still hoping the versatility of Bloomquist and Teahen on the bench will allow Moore to keep Shealy instead of Gload. If Gload, German and TPJ could be dealt for a C- A-Ball middle reliever, I would be happy.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
+1
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
My answers
1. Agree with you completely on number 1, including the fact I think Trey will be madly in love with Gloadquist by the end of their time together in romantic Surprise, AZ.
2. Butler will start in the majors, and Gload will go away or make it through waivers to Omaha. Although, we’re off to a rough start w/ this one considering Gload homered in the intrasquad game the other day, likely meaning one of our pitchers has killed himself already.
3. See #2
4. I believe HoRam will be in the rotation, but I am far less grumpy than you or billybeingbilly (one of my best friends) about HoRam. While he pitched decently to good in relief last year, there really is nothing to go on as far as his starting potential, other than his starting history (which, as we all know, is not good). But maybe HoRam figured it out and can earn a spot, taking what he learned in relief and translating it to success as a 4 or 5 starter. However, that is NOT how Trey/Dayton see him. I believe they’ve made up their mind, and it will take a small disaster for him to miss the rotation.
5. If it comes down to HoRam v. Hochevar for the last spot, I’d take Hochevar every time, if for no other reason than his potential. I see Luke as a sleeper breakout player this year, provided he throws more 4-seamers and sliders (I noticed in some of his good/great starts that this was the difference….92-93mph fastball, 89mph sinker, mid 80s slider…nasty combo when located well, which he’s proven he can do for four innings…the next step is stretching him out and consistency from start to start). BUT, he does have options, and it wouldn’t hurt for him to start in AAA.
special-look out for Carlos Rosa out of Spring Training, if he lights it up he can work his way into a rotation spot.
Farnsworth's imitation tight-pants now on sale at Dick's!
by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Feb 24, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions
when the hell did horam figue it out?....
when he was posting a 7 ERA in chicago? 2 ks in 13 innings compared with 8 walks? The only way HoRam can be a legit starter is to keep his bb/9 down somewhere around the 1 in 24 innings he did while here last year…and i see that as unlikely considering he’s walked a ton of guys his entire career
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Feb 24, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
I think the picture is a little more complicated than that. What makes HoRam an effective pitcher — at those times when he is an effective pitcher — is a low walk rate, a lot of groundballs and few flyballs. A pitcher can be effective without getting many strikeouts if he can get a lot of GB’s, give up few free passes and give up few FBs, and therefore few HR’s. The GB’s are important because they lead to fewer extra base hits.
And I don’t think we can or should cherry-pick HoRam’s 13 innings with the White Sox. Nor should we just look at his Royals numbers. Look at the whole season. I think his combination of lowish walks (maybe 2.5/9), high GB and low FB numbers could make him an effective reliever again. Not a good one, but an effective one. As a reliever, he was able to stick with his best three pitches (fastball, slider, cutter). As a starter, HoRam’s fourth and fifth best pitches (changeup and curveball) usually accounted for about 18% of the pitches he threw. As a reliever, he only threw them 8% of the time. As a starter, he’ll likely throw those shitting pitches more, especially after the first time threw the batting order.
So I don’t think HoRam figured anything out in 2008 exactly. It’s just that working as a reliever allows any pitcher to rely on his best pitches and not go too deep into the weaker parts of his arsenal. That’s what he did in 2008.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 24, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty good summation
Agree with your assessment. Would add that the decsion on Teahen at 2B will most likely impact the Gload decision. If Teahen wins 2B outright (or even half of it in a platoon), then Gload probably stays due to no backup OF otherwise. If Bloomquist wins 2B, then Teahen is 4th OF and Gload is expendable. In other words, we get a negative roster implication either way!
So, what we need to root for, REAL FRICKING HARD, is for Callaspo to win 2B job so that Gload is expendable and Bloomquist can merely serve as the utility guy.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
I don't know that they'll think there is no backup OFer other than Gload
First, even if Teahen is the starting 2B, that doesn’t mean that he has to start 160 games there. In fact, I don’t think they’d do that. I think at most he’ll be a part-time second baseman. And he could/would still be the 4th OFer. If an OFer needs a day off or gets injured, Teahen goes to the OF and Callaspo or Bloomquist gets the start at second base. Second, both Callaspo and German can play the OF at least as well as Gload. Actually, I’m firmly of the opinion that they are better defensively in the OF than Gload. And it’s not like the Royals have used Gload a lot in the OF. In fact German has gotten a lot more PT in the OF in the last two years than Gload.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 24, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
The good news is that
alot of people are very impressed with Billy’s 1b defense so far this spring. Hopefully this is a spring rumor that sticks. If Billy can be a avaerage or above average everyday 1bagger then the need for Gload goes away and the possibility of a Shealy/Jacobs DH platoon increases.
Best Case scenario for us all:
Billy wins the 1b job, DFA Gload, keep Shealy
Alberto is a starting 2b
Bench
Buck or Olivo toss a coin
Teahen – utility player all over the infield and outfield
Bloomquist – backup SS, utility OF late inning defensive OF replacement when Guillen, DDJ or Crisp gets injured
Shealy – RH power bat off the bench to platoon with Jacobs or if BamBam would hit a rough patch.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Losses
I don’t think Gload or TPJ make it to Opening Day
by Royal from Queens on Feb 24, 2009 7:47 PM EST reply actions
I hate to say it.
1. I am very jaded on this one. I absolutely believe that if Teahen doesn’t win 2B then Bloomy is outright the starter. I think he’s already installed there and he has to lose it. I think DMTH hate “Bert” and he’s going to be gone. Very stupid move.
2. I think Billy will make the big club. However, I think that even though Shealy is better, DM will rationalize the completely counterintuitive idea that he can get better trade material out of him so and conclude that we should keep the worse player (Gload) on the roster. Again, very stupid move.
3. Yes, they can’t bear to part with Gload.
4. Absolutely. HoRam already won this position. We all know it.
5. Yes, Omaha. They love Banny. HoRam is set. Davies is from Atlanta. Che will be back when Banny or HoRam fail.
Desperately Seeking Soria (Subliminally encouraging Trey to "Think Leverage, you can do it, Leverage")
You may be right about all of the above, but...
1. I am very jaded on this one. I absolutely believe that if Teahen doesn’t win 2B then Bloomy is outright the starter. I think he’s already installed there and he has to lose it. I think DMTH hate "Bert" and he’s going to be gone. Very stupid move.
First, if Bloomy is the presumptive starting 2B, I would think he’d be starting at 2B in the first official lineup. Second, if TH really hated Callaspo, I don’t think he’d be so effusive in his praise of his hitting to the media. He wouldn’t bash him, but he wouldn’t go out of his way to praise him. And if DM really hated Callaspo, then he would have traded him this offseason. It’s not like it would be hard to trade a middle IFer with some OBP and contact hitting skills who is making league minimum and has multiple years of team control remaining.
4. Absolutely. HoRam already won this position. We all know it.
I think that overstates it quite a bit. Hillman has been pretty clear that HoRam hasn’t won a starting spot. He has to earn it. That doesn’t mean Bannister, Hochevar and Davies all have just as much of a chance to make it as HoRam. But I think the decision is far from being made at this point. And a poor spring could definitely push him to the bullpen (and the 6th starter role).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 25, 2009 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
as to Teahen
First, if Bloomy is the presumptive starting 2B, I would think he’d be starting at 2B in the first official lineup.
Except that TH said he needs to get Teahen as many reps at 2B before he leaves to play for Canada in the World thingy.
Desperately Seeking Soria (Subliminally encouraging Trey to "Think Leverage, you can do it, Leverage")
Good thread
NYRoyal is basically right. I think Hoch and HoRam will make the rotation and either Banny or Hiram will be in the bullpen and available to spot-start. I also think HoRam will be shelled out of the rotation within six weeks of Opening Day and will be demoted to LOOGY. I bet Gobble and Peralta don’t start the season in KC, and if one of them does, he won’t finish it there. And I really hope we don’t see Gload in a Royals uniform in 2009. Do you really think Jake is going to play every day? Shealy is going to get at least some playing time.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
HoRam starting would be pretty concerning.
It would definitely kill the “man our division sucks” buzz that I have going.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
What, GMDM didn't do it singlehandedly with his Snakeskin Boots, Jr. offseason?
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 27, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
He did
But that I saw the projections for our division and realized that with a breakout or two and lousy luck for a couple teams, we could be in this. No, really. But HoRam in the rotation would be giving away wins with gusto.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
Hopefully this will be for just one month
If he’s as bad as must of us expect him to be, Hillman won’t stick with him. Hillman has proved he’s willing to change pitching roles based on performance.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 27, 2009 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
oh he did it with the gobbler too...
he saw something he was really good at…and changed his role to something he was really terrible at
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Feb 28, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions
Will somebody please tell me why Teahen has opted to play in the World Baseball Classic when his career – and role – are on an essential lifeline – and have been for years? It’s his choice, but if I were him, I would have much, much more important things to worry about.
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
He probably wasn't going to win the 2B job out of camp
and he’s got a utility spot locked up. In addition, it might be his only chance to play for team Canada.
Here are my answers
1. No – although I’m worried about the propensity, there’s no way the organization would want a backup 2B (and, yes, possible COF) only. His trade value likely isn’t as high as what it could be with a 500 PA-.300/.350/.380 season, as well, which is what he’s likely to produce.
2. No. That would be too catastrophic, and blatantly anti-progressive on part of the FO. I highly doubt this will happen.
3. Yes. He will make the cut for that final roster slot.
4. No. Obviously I have hindsight of that first start. I think S.T. statistics only truly matter when gauging true competition. I don’t think the organization is that stubborn.
5. No.
The Nation at large. I'll be playing the role of RR Resident Optimist this offseason. What role will you assume?
I think there might be some tension between your answers to #2 and #3. Now, if Shealy gets cut, then they can both stay on the roster (what is it with Moore trading for a guy, then letting them loose for nothing later? More brilliance.) Still, if Gload makes the roster, it hurts Butler’s chances to start the season with the big team.
Moreover, if Gload does make the team after last year’s return to (worthless) form, why would you say that the front office is unlikely to make a “blantanly anti-progressive” move like sending Butler to Omaha to start the season? If it’s just because they need to keep Gload, the only reason is because Moore is too stubborn and foolish to recognize a sunk cost…
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 27, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Fuuuuuuck
Please, no, we cannot keep Gload. If we end up with Gload and not Shealy then I just don’t know wtf. I seriously might abandon my lines at Grass Creek and go over. The problem is, Gload hit a triple and made 3 RBI yesterday. Pretty much cements his place on the team for the DMTH clown parade.
Fourth to First
there have been many worse transgressions over the years than Gload over Shealy
although that would be really dumb
Let’s not count our chickens blah blah blah early overreaction blah blah blah
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 28, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
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