Ram-Ram Watch
by royalstern05 on Feb 26, 2009 10:51 AM EST
41 comments
Many people on this site and other Royals forums have been critical of the moves GMDM made this Winter. Although I know the hottest place in hell is reserved for those who in times of conflict remain neutral, I am still undecided about the moves made (except for the Bloomquist and HoRam signings - by all objective standards they sucked).
So I make this post with an eye towards objective evaluation of the Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez trade. I know we will disect Coco's every at-bat and play in CF, but I would like to keep an eye on how RamRam performs for the BoSox.
The MLB Network broadcast the Red Sox/Twins Spring Opener last night. I saw RamRam come in and pitch the 7th inning against the Twinkies.
http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2009_02_25_bosmlb_minmlb_1
I'll tell you this much, RamRam could one day become an elite closer. He looked trimmer and his stuff was electric. He got ahead 0-2 to the 1st batter he faced, fell behind 3-2 and then K'd him swinging on a 4-seamer up and away.
The next batter flew-out on a lazy fly-ball to RF on the 1st pitch. RamRam then blazed the 3rd and last batter he faced with a 3-pitch K.
The competition he faced was irrelevant - he was throwing strikes and his stuff was truly filthy.
I already miss him.
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Saw that game
And I did too shed a tear when he came in. I was ambivalent about the trade mostly because I like watching Coco Crisp play the game, but ultimately, I think five years of RamRam would probably be much more valuable than one year of Coco.
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by RoyalsRetro on Feb 26, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes this will probably turn out as a far worse trade than the Nunez-Jacobs deal
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Feb 26, 2009 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
RamRam won’t be pitching more than 70-75 innings, at most, for the BoSox, and because of the presence of Papelbon and Okajima, they aren’t even going to be the highest leverage innings. Ramirez will also be facing a tougher division and almost certainly won’t match his 2008 line. I’d rather have 600 AB’s of decent #2 hitting and above average CF defense than 75 good innings out of the bullpen.
by DarthYoshi on Feb 26, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, in general, I'd agree
but it’s not always clear cut, check the WARs over the last three years
Crisp
2006: 0.8
2007: 3.5
2008: 0.7
Ramirez:
2006: 1.1
2007: 0.2
2008: 1.8
Factor in the differences in contracts and club control, and this isn’t exactly a no-brainer. tRA loves Ramirez even more in 2006 and 2008 — having about a 2 win pitcher each season.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 27, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
in fairness...
Crisp’s injury in 2006 put him on the DL for quite a while and seriously messed with his ability to hit. His offensive production has increased each year since ’06 (less so in ’07, but his defense more than made up for it).
by DarthYoshi on Feb 27, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And part of his lower WAR was due to the fact that he was not a starter during some of those seasons
Make him a full-time starter with decent but not perfect health and perhaps you have a 2.5 WAR player. Whereas RamRam is likely less than 1.5 WAR.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Feb 27, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
true
CHONE has Ramirez at 1.4 for 2009. We’ll see. Insert real estate analogy here.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 27, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Including offense and defense?
I just looked at his “expanded” page and it says that if his CF defense is average, they project a 1.5 WAR. And if his CF defense is “good” then they project a 2 WAR. I think you’ve shown that looking at the last three years of multiple advanced defensive metrics shows that he’s likely to be somewhere above average defensively. And CHONE projects him at only about 500 PA’s, which I think is a little low.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Feb 27, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know how the PAs figure into the WAR projection, actually
I would put Crisp’s defense in the “good” range, although I imagine you’d get a number of responses (last weekend I was all set to set up a crude projection system using the 3-4 UZR data supplemented with regression to the mean coup[led with the FSR that has greater impact the less playing time a guy gets, but then real life interfered). ANyway, that makes Crisp a 2.2 WAR player. Like I said, it’s a toss-up whether the .6 win (or even 1 win) improvement trumps not just the financial difference, but the club control difference.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As far as PA’s go, aren’t they critical to projecting WAR? I mean the counting stats that go into WAR are based on a certain amount of playing time. If the player gets more PA’s, then that means proportionally more doubles, triples, SB’s, etc. So, if a player is going to get 2 WAR over X PA’s, then the player is likely to get more than 2 WAR if his actual PA’s are greater than X.
ANyway, that makes Crisp a 2.2 WAR player. Like I said, it’s a toss-up whether the .6 win (or even 1 win) improvement trumps not just the financial difference, but the club control difference.
That’s true. And I’ll add other variables. They both also have breakout and collapse potential. A fully healthy year could lead to some significantly better numbers for Crisp. RamRam could easily “collapse” to league average pitching. Also, one has to judge the value of those years of team control relative to position. RamRam was and is just a middle reliever. As we all know, they are easily replaceable. That doesn’t mean any and every replacement will be as good as RamRam. But his “position” is the easiest and cheapest to replace. Just because Moore did a poor job of replacing him this year doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t expect Moore to have difficulty filling that role for every year of team control the Royals lost.
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by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True
but injuries are also part of player’s performance history.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 27, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
they are...
…but as far as I know, it is the only significant injury in Crisp’s several years in the bigs, and I (think) it happened when he slid into a base and got jammed. He hasn’t had any chronic health issues that I remember hearing of, so I’m willing to write that off as a fluke.
by DarthYoshi on Feb 28, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's had nagging injury problems just about every year
According to many sources, including Red Sox fans, he’s been playing through injuries off and on for years.
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by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 1:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Leverage applies here
He’s saying that he could be an elite closer in the future, obviously not this year unless Okajima and Papelbon get hit by a bus. We would have controlled Ramirez for a lot longer. I do like Crisp, but wouldn’t have traded Ramirez for him.
And if Ramirez does match his 2008 line in Boston? Basically, Boston wins the World Series, as the starter goes 6-7 innings, then Ramirez, Okajima, Papelbon. Game over, goodnight.
by AxDxMx on Feb 27, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
as long as Paps or Okajima is around....
Ramirez probably isn’t going to get a shot at closing in Boston. I think if Theo Epstein and friends were serious about turning Paps into a starter, it would have happened a year ago. So yeah, I do think leverage applies. RamRam is going to be pitching a lot of 6th and 7th innings for the Sox. A few 8th innings too, but his value isn’t the same to the Red Sox as it was to us.
by DarthYoshi on Feb 27, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But its not just 75 innings
We would have RamRam for the next 4-5 seasons. Crisp will likely only be here one year.
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by RoyalsRetro on Feb 27, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Ross Gload can get an extension...
Every ex-Braves FO person knows that position players peak in their mid- to -late thirties. I’m guessing CoCo busts an earth-shattering 2.2 WAR (above average), and gets a 3 year extension.
Well, as long as it doesn’t interfere with extending Olivo.
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by devil_fingers on Feb 27, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's great for one season
but I find it unlikely that Crisp is here more than 1 season. If he is here 2 seasons they will be overpaying him dramatically next year at 8M. I would take 3 or 4 years of RamRam over two of Crisp at 13.5M.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Feb 27, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'd be shocked if it wasn't picked up
so long his season isn’t a disaster this year.
who would play CF next year? Derrick Robinson? MITCH? nope. the free agent market blows for CF next winter.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Feb 27, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
who does Ramirez look like with that goatee? I can't place it
I miss his tiny shrunken Gameday head
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by devil_fingers on Feb 26, 2009 11:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
he sucked yesterday
i randomly checked the white sox box score and he gave up like 6 runs in one inning.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Feb 26, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i can safely say
that after Julio Pimentel being awesome today, he will be the best setup man to ever live. FACT.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Feb 26, 2009 6:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Our new (required) lefty starter: DiNardo?
Fourth to First
by kabrink on Feb 26, 2009 7:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather DiNardo than Ramirez
And i’d rather not have either. The idea that DM seems to have that he needs a Leftie is so old fashioned and out of touch it is almost quaint. Bless him.
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
by kcbottom9th on Feb 26, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nice post
It’s odd, in a vacuum, this is exactly the sort of trade the Royals should make — a reliever for a starting CF? Brilliant.
Unfortunately, ín reality, this trade made little sense, as the Royals had a capable CF and this opened up a big hole in the pen. Oh, and it costs the Royals a bunch of cash, which in turn cost the R’s a chance at upgrading at 2B.
At least he’ll be fun to watch, though, and I think there’s a chance this could work out for the R’s…
by marbotty on Feb 27, 2009 1:13 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Yea, kinda my thoughts
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 27, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, it cost the Royals money, but it alone did not prevent us from upgrading at 2b...
The Jacobs deal and especially signing the Professor handicapped Moore in that regard. I still maintain that both transactions are far less defensible than the Crisp trade.
The thing is, while the Royals had a capable CFer, the OF in general left much to be desired. We are all familiar with Hoagie’s weaknesses. Teahen just doesn’t hit for enough power to justify a corner spot, and opinions on his defense vary, but he has not been a great defensive OFer. With the Crisp trade, the Royals majorly upgraded their defense at two OF positions (no small thing considering that almost all our starters are flyball pitchers), and really didn’t lose any offensive production (Crisp has a fairly similar career line to Teahen—almost identical OBP, and SLG is about ten points lower, but Teahen has significant platoon splits and barely OPS’s .700 against lefties, which is unacceptable for a corner position player). We pay more, obviously, because an offensively productive CFer is a premium asset, whereas a decent setup guy can be pretty easily replaced (although replacing him with the Professor was pretty bleeping dumb, but I think if there is one thing we can trust Moore with, it’s to build a solid bullpen).
Point being, if I’m going to spend a bunch of cash on a mediocre setup reliever, a mediocre DH/poseur first baseman, or an above-average CFer, I’m going to take door number three any day. I think that, at worst, the trade is a push.
by DarthYoshi on Feb 27, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you're considering money enough, but ymmv
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by devil_fingers on Feb 27, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Has the acquisition of Juan Cruz made this thread irrelevant?
by royalstern05 on Feb 28, 2009 8:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps seven months from now
I remember back in early April some were livid that Ramon Ramirez was making the team over Joel Peralta. Opinions can change a lot over the course of a season. If Juan Cruz has a good season, Ramon Ramirez has a merely ok season and Crisp has a decent season, there isn’t going to be much complaining about the Crisp trade. Then again, if Ramirez is dominant again, Crisp is injured for half the season and Cruz has a walk rate over 5 and spends a month on the DL, it will look like a catastrophic trade.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno
I think that’s how people will (understandably) want to regard the situation, but I think the Cruz signing and Crisp/Ramirez trade should be looked at separately once removed from the “heat of the moment” (ugh).
If Cruz pitches like ZiPS and CHONE say he probably will, it’s a good signing, and would have been even if Ramirez was around.
Even if Cruz rocks in KC, if Crisp is hurt/doesn’t play great defense/bottoms out offensively (whatever combination makes him less than 2 WAR) while Ramirez simply meets projections (between 1 and 1.5 WAR), then that’s still a bad trade for KC due to the relative paychecks.
I haven’t thought this through completely, but I’d say Crisp needs to outperform Ramirez by at least 1 win this season for that trade to even be considered close to a push, and even then it’s no sure thing, given the club control, money, etc. Crisp would probably need to put up 1 win over Ramirez in 2010 for the Royals, as well. And if ram-ram keeps putting up 1.5 WAR years (not impossible, if improbable), it will be hard to call this trade a good one for the Royals. But in the short term, yeah, Crisp is probably 1 win better than Ramirez in 2009 anyway. But if Ramirez keeps pitching like he did in 2006 and 2008…
As for Cruz, it’s really hard to see how this goes wrong, barring an injury or unforeseen collapse. Even if he isn’t quite as good as Leo Nunez was in 2008 (their tRA-WAR was the same) for the next two seasons, it’s a good deal for the Royals.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with just about all of that
I don’t think it will be hard for Cruz to beat Nunez’s 2008 WAR of 0.5.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Me neither
but I was looking at tRA, which has them both at 1.1 (I think).
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, tRA-based WAR had them both considerably higher than FIP-based WAR
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
God, just look at all those acronyms.
You guys must really hate baseball.
WTF, self?
by minda33 on Mar 1, 2009 2:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ram-Ram watch
Gave up 4 runs in 1 inning.
clearly he sucks with his 9 ERA.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Mar 4, 2009 3:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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