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The Newest Royal: Juan Cruz

Nyroyal3a_tiny by NYRoyal on Comment 322 comments

About 11 months ago, I happily welcomed Ramon Ramirez to the Kansas City Royals.  Now the Royals have acquired another good righty reliever in Juan Cruz.  The contract is reportedly for two years and $5.5 million with a club option for a third year at $4 million.  While the Royals and Diamondbacks discussed a sign-and-trade deal in which the Royals would give up prospect(s) instead of their second round draft pick (compensation because Cruz is a Type A free agent), in the end the Royals decided to just sign Cruz and give up the draft pick.

Dayton Moore has added one dominant pitcher to his bullpen for each of his seasons with the Royals.

2007 Joakim Soria

2008 Ramon Ramirez

2009 Juan Cruz???

Will Cruz really be the next dominant reliever for the Royals?  And who is this mercurial flame thrower?

Juan_cruz_medium

via nyyinsider.info

Star-divide

 

The Stuff

Cruz relies heavily on two pitches: a 94-95 mph fastball (topping out in the high 90's) and a much slower 81 mph slider.  As you would expect from such a slow slider, it has a good deal of break.  He occasionally but rarely mixes in a changeup or a curveball.  The Pitch f/x data shows that Cruz's control problems come from his fastball, as he has average control over his slider and change.  Cruz usually throws his fastball over-the-top, but his slider and change are usually released from a slightly lower arm slot.  He uses his slider more against righties and uses his changeup almost exclusively against lefties.  You can find a more detailed breakdown of his Pitch f/x data here.

The Stats

 Pitching
 Year Team G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA FIP tRA  
 2001 CHC 8 8 3 1 0 0 0 44.2 40 16 16 4 17 39 3.22 3.74
 
 2002 CHC 45 9 3 11 1 0 0 97.1 84 56 43 11 59 81 3.98 4.83
 
 2003 CHC 25 6 2 7 0 0 0 61.0 66 44 41 7 28 65 6.05 4.11 4.85  
 2004 ATL 50 0 6 2 0 0 0 72.0 59 24 22 7 30 70 2.75 3.70 3.75  
 2005 OAK 28 0 0 3 0 0 0 32.2 38 33 27 5 22 34 7.44 5.32 5.49  
 2006 ARI 31 15 5 6 0 0 0 94.2 80 45 44 7 47 88 4.18 4.09 4.33  
 2007 ARI 53 0 6 1 0 0 0 61.0 45 28 21 7 32 87 3.10 3.70 3.35  
 2008 ARI 57 0 4 0 0 0 0 51.2 34 17 15 5 31 71 2.61 3.62 3.24  
 Career   297 38 29 31 1 0 0 515.0 446 263 229 53 266 535 4.00 4.13
 

What we see here is a struggling starting pitcher who came into his own when he was moved to the bullpen.  There have been some ups and downs but there have always been a lot of strikeouts, a significant number of walks and not too many HR's.  That's why his defense independent stats metrics (like FIP and tRA) have usually been good.

Some interesting things have changed in the last two years.  Before 2007, Cruz's fastball usually sat at 92-93 mph.  In the last two years it's usually been in the 94-95 mph range.  Part of that has to do with pitching in the bullpen full-time.  His approach has changed somewhat as well.  In the last two years, he's been throwing his change and curve less and using his slider considerably more.  Also, in the last two years his usually very good strikeout rate of about 9 K/9 has shot up to over 12 K/9.  And in the last two years his GB% has gone down, while his FB% has increased significantly.  It would appear that his increased velocity and new approach gets him more strikeouts but also more flyballs.  The strikeouts are great, and while more flyballs are dangerous, that plays better at Kauffman Stadium than at Chase Field.

Juan_cruz-215x300_medium

via baby-bombers.com

The History

Juan Cruz was signed as an undrafted international free agent out of Bonao, Dominican Republic in 1997 by the Chicago Cubs.  After struggling in his first two professional seasons, Cruz had a breakthrough minor league season in 2000 at age 21, splitting the year between low-A and high-A.  He made his major league debut the next year and pitched well for the Cubs, making eight start (3.22 ERA in 44.2 IP).  He spent all of 2002 season in the majors, splitting time between the rotation and bullpen, with largely positive results (3.98 ERA in 97.1 IP).  The next two seasons found Cruz in the minors more than in the majors and in 2004 he was traded to the Braves (former Brave!).  He stayed with the Braves for one very good major league season (2.75 ERA, 72 IP) before being sent to Oakland as part of the Tim Hudson trade.  Cruz split the 2005 season between the majors and minors with poor results and then was traded to the Diamondbacks for Brad Halsey.  Since joining the Diamondbacks, Cruz has been a major asset to their bullpen, usually used as a setup man and never as a closer.  His professional Saves total is 1.

So, why has such a talented player as Cruz been shipped around so much?  First, while he has a live arm, he's always had control problems.  Second, he has a reputation of being a million dollar arm with a ten cent head.  Third, it's the nature of modern baseball that even good players get traded, and this is doubly true of relief pitchers.

Cruz has had some nagging injury problems over the years, but nothing major.  The Injury Tool at fantasypitchfx.com (which is very useful) shows that over the last three years, he has been on the disabled list three times for a total of 74 days for shoulder soreness, a tricep strain and an oblique strain.  Thankfully none of these involve significant structural issues (knock wood).

The Bottom Line

So who is this guy?  In a lot of ways he's like Robinson Tejeda.  More accurately, I'd say that Robinson Tejeda is Juan Cruz-lite.  They are both largely failed starters who have succeeded in the bullpen.  They both have 2-3 pitches, relying primarily on fastball, slider and changeup.  They both have legitimate mid-90's power arms which get them a lot of strikeouts, but they also have control issues and give up a lot of walks.  The good news is that Robinson Tejeda is (or at least was) a diamond in the rough and Cruz is a diamond that's already been polished and is sitting in a nice platinum setting.  Ok, that might be a little over the top, but if I were 15 years younger, I'd say that Juan Cruz is, quite simply, the balls.

The projection systems, in varying degrees, like or love Juan Cruz.  

ZiPS - 67 ip, 3.36 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9

CHONE - 68 ip, 3.31 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 (3.20 FIP)

PECOTA - 57 ip, 4.33 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9

In short, the Royals now have a dominant righty setup man if they are smart enough to use him that way and not have him pitch the seventh inning and then give the ball up to Farnsworth.  

 

4 recs  |  Comment 322 comments |

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Read More: dayton moore, david glass, Juan Cruz (P - KAN), Joakim Soria (P - KAN), Ramon Ramirez (P - BOS), Robinson Tejeda (P - KAN)

Comments

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Juan Cruz gets a 2/6 deal

Makes that Farnsworth deal look smarter and smarter…

by Top Ramen on Feb 28, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I was hoping to avoid too much Farnsworth contract bashing in my article

How horrible that contract was and is remains very obvious…and kind of beaten to death.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

obvious and yet...

i mean, it happened, and was done by a professional

it almost can’t be mentioned enough

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder what you would say if someone said this about a really bad teacher or president?

yes, sports aren’t as important, but it’s something we care about. That’s what this site is about — sports.

Unless you are prepared to not make any claims about Moore being a good or bad GM, you’re going to have to live with this — it all goes into his permanent record.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 8:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This site is about being a fan of the royals

Not about being a negator.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

what is a "negator?"

can I still be a fan of a team if I get mad that, say, a pitcher gave up a home run? Or is that being a “negator?”

Are loyalty oaths and non-disclosure of frustration agreements now required?

Why dont you ask RR what the site is about?

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A negator

is what Kevin Spacey and Samuel Jackson do on TNT every other Saturday, right?

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 28, 2009 11:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A negator is a Kevin Ketzman word

It basically means a fan who finds something wrong with EVERYTHING the team does. For example, my alma mater won their conference tonight in basketball. Awesome. A negator goes, I like the win, BUT they didn’t do a good enough job subbing or calling timeouts. I wish coach would sub better. Even though this is a 25 point victory. And then continues from there to pick apart the team and the accomplishment that has just been done. If you find yourself saying a lot of, “they should have” statements, you might be a negator.

Now, I’m not saying that you should never second guess, I’m just saying that when it becomes habitual, you should check yourself and learn to relish the positive moments when they come.

We just signed an awesome pitcher for a small amount of money. This is a key piece to our team. Let’s be exited instead of throwing out nothing but criticism.

(and I’m not familiar with TNT saturday night TV…. elaborate)
(And I would like to hear RR’s opinion. I bet he says this site is for comments about the Royals)

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 11:20 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

*excited

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 11:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

TNT shows

“The Negotiator” quite often, it features Spacey and Jackson.

Why am I not shocked that Kietzman has a name for what he does? Talk about fucking worthless.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 28, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

-1

For using a Kevin Kietzman word. That guy knows as much about baseball as I do about nuclear physics.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 1, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, it worked for Jose Guillen

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it was another 2005 joke

I guess we can’t make those anymore, either. GobbleforCyYoung is now on the NYRoyals safe list.

Don’t worry, though, I’m sure you’re just protecting people who liked the Guillen signing, despite having yourself been right about it from the start.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Sheesh

The Guillen signing was bad. Shall we bring it up every time Moore does something good? I think you should list all of Moore’s bad moves every time he does something good. “Don’t get the wrong idea folks, Moore is a complete idiot. Ignore the positive moves. They don’t really help build a complete picture of Moore’s work.”

[Trouble in paradise! Drama is exciting]

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you are misconstruing the criticism

he has a track record of trading relivers… its like, by all accounts, what he does

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

okay, let's backtrack

Top Ramen makes a joke referencing the recent “2005 fever” in some quarters of RR re: Farnsworth

devil_fingers adds on to the joke, noting that Jose Guillen should be added to the list of 2005 alumni

NYRoyals furiously responds to the jokes as if they were detailed and mean-spirited criticisms, despite himself having joked about 2005 in an earlier

d_f, instead of just letting it go like a smart person, gets irritated at the humorlessness, and responds with snark

NYRoyal, still smarting over Dayton Moore’s fall from grace, paints with the typical broad strokes because he’s the only one with a detailed, nuanced picture of what’s really going on.. despite the fact that this is like a politician responding to a comedian’s jokes at his expense with a detailed study.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

that's what she said

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Feb 28, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And Did

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 1, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thank you NYRoyal

(I’m not being sarcastic or anything either!! :)

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Moore is Brilliant

Moore is a completely moron? Completely???? Really? Should check the spelling before you insult someone on their intelligence. I love this deal and all of the off-season moves by the Royals. You have got to be crazy not to see that the bullpen will be a huge strength of the team.

by Rewbee on Mar 1, 2009 9:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is this a joke

or the sound of something flying over someone’s head

by DCRoyals on Mar 1, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Beaten and beaten...

…and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten and beaten … – TL

by timlacy on Feb 28, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

beaten?

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 28, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Funny hearing this from a Molly Ivins fan

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 8:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Molly's Dead

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 1, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

so... in ten months Juan Cruz will be...

I’m trying to think of a sub-replacement level, over priced position player…

somebody help me

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wow

No praise for a good signing? It appears that when Moore does something bad, you bash him. And then when he does something good, you spin that into how he’s going to eventually screw up this good move by turning it into something bad.

“Joakim Soria will soon be traded for (fill in the blank).”

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Well Hitler did some good stuff

he still sucked as human being.

To take the point to its ridiculously overblown extent. It’s a very good move. The bad ones didnt go away because of it.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Feb 28, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well Hitler did some good stuff

sincerely,
Marge Schott

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

wow......

Great signing by GMDM.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

GMDM signed Marge Schott?

Is Schottzie the canine-to-be-named-later?

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW

I was mildy drunk when i posted that. It was pretty tasteless.

Sorry folks.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Mar 1, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like the signing

But have mixed feelings about giving up the draft pick, especially since I think Grudz will not be signed.

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Feb 28, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's certainly fair

The loss of a second round draft pick is a real negative here. As far as Grudz goes, I haven’t read any rumors about him retiring. So the only question is if he’s willing to take 500K-1M with some incentives to play in 2009.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A sign-and-trade would've been kind of cool

just because it almost never happens in baseball

by Top Ramen on Feb 28, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it is kind of like an American League manager doing a double switch

during an interleague game

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Feb 28, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One other point regarding draft pick compensation

The Royals could end up getting back the equivalent of a 2nd round draft pick or better by:

1. Trading him at the deadline in 2009, 2010 or 2011.
2. Letting him go to free agency. If he’s a Type B FA, the Royals get a sandwich pick.

Not that either of those are a lock to happen, but they are factors to consider.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you

But I’d rather not wait for either potential scenario to happen and see someone sign Grudz now. That would really ease my mind.

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Feb 28, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mine too

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i don't like our history

of players being injured at the deadline. Sanders, Mahay, Grudz…

i don’t think compensation for this signing is any sort of thing a person can assume.

by 9il on Feb 28, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty Damn Nearly

Enough, surely.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 1, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he's pretty clearly established that he signs these guys to trade them

and the trades have been spotty

it seems like a relevant point to make

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

For some reason I'm drawing a blank beyond Nunez and Ramirez

has he traded the guys he’s signed for more than one year, or just young guys who are pre-FA

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dotel was a one-year deal (with player option)

His contract was expiring and Dotel wasn’t going to exercise his option.

How many guys has Moore signed to a multi-year deal and traded in the first year of the deal? Any?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

is the multi-year disctition really such a bright-line difference

or just a coincidental thing?

i mean, he had years of cheap control left with Nunez and ram-ram, which seems basically the same to me

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it is basically the same thing to Dayton Moore

I think he signs guys to multi-year deals when he wants to keep them for multiple years.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Did he sign Mahay to trade him?

Riske?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

its not like it still can't happen

building a bullpen with FAs isn’t exactly genius…

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Anything can happen

But Moore’s track record does not support the contention that this is what he’s going to do (sign and then trade at the deadline).

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah but we shouldn’t have to call a person out before we get some thoughtful and interesting analysis. I get it, cracking a joke is easy. Thinking is hard. And if you wait to think you might not get omgFirstp0st! at the top of the thread.

Do you guys like baseball and the royals or do you just like making smart ass comments on the internet?

by sfeldkamp on Feb 28, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We like both

And we like them both a lot.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thinking?

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Feb 28, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll Have To

Get back to you on that one…………..

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 1, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I personally only come to a Royals website to make jokes.

I actually hate baseball.

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Feb 28, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just like Adam Dunn

Marriage is a great institution, for those that like being in institutions.

by fats on Mar 1, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We can think and make smart ass comments? Who knew.....

(clearly not me)

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wish you were right

because then he could’ve traded Mahay at the break last year and saved the Royals from the foot problem.

DAMN YOU GMDM Mahay+Buck = Donald

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 28, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that would have been cool

although he would be blocking the Tugger

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That was the trade I was calling for at the break.

I don’t think Conte had done much for the Phils at that point last year and their catching roster was looking pretty weak. Plus it was Buck Pre-2nd half cliff so KC probably could’ve gotten more than just Donald.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 28, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I really hate this guy

I remember you were bashing the Greinke signing by saying he got too much money in his last two years….give me a friggen break

Can you say anything positive about the Royals (watch it be about Gordon – who has sucked so far in Spring Training)

by GobbleforCyoung on Mar 1, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How can you hate Royalsreview?

It just isn’t possible.

He helped us get through 2005, 2006 & 2007. We owe him a debt that can never be fully repaid.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Mar 1, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

being positive about Gordon is bad?
Can you say anything positive about the Royals (watch it be about Gordon – who has sucked so far in Spring Training)

by royalsreview on Mar 1, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Now I'm in a conumdrum

what is a better predictor of future performance: 2009 Spring Training or 2005 regular season?

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by devil_fingers on Mar 1, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Two or three games in spring training really tell you all you need to know

(especially if they are 2005 ST games)

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2005 ST

wasn’t that the spring training where Ruben Gotay hit ~.400 with power?

by Top Ramen on Mar 2, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I really, really like this deal

I’m not thrilled about the loss of the second round pick, but if Grudzielanek would hurry up and get signed by someone, the sandwich pick would mitigate the loss.

by Top Ramen on Feb 28, 2009 5:06 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

I won't worry about the pick. :)

It’s like an educated risk.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 7:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2nd rounders under Moore

2007—Sam Runion: he may come around, but he’s behind the curve, and 3rd rounder Duffy looks like the far better deal.

2008—Johnny G.: I think he tops out as the Ross Gload of middle infielders if he makes it—a capable backup who might get too many ABs because of his grit and hustle. 3rd rounder Sample has far more upside.

If Juan Cruz gets us a guy who can nail down the 8th inning, we can skip the overreaching 2nd round pick this year. That sounds like win-win to me (but not necessarily win-win-win).

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Feb 28, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Obligatory -1

For hating on my Johnny G.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Mar 1, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

Ross Gload has fans too…somewhere, just not here.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Mar 3, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fixed

if Grudzielanek would hurry up and get signed by someone, the sandwich pick would mitigatecompletely cover the loss and then some.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Mar 1, 2009 7:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Love the deal

Certainly makes our bullpen so much better. knowing that Farnsy probably wont be our setup guy is just amazing

Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.

by focs on Feb 28, 2009 5:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good Post BTW

Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.

by focs on Feb 28, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

thanks

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah it was an interesting and thoughtful read.

by sfeldkamp on Feb 28, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I sure hope that's true

Hard to say how Hillman sees it. The only thing to like about Farnsworth was his power arm, right? And Cruz has that, so would there be any reason to make Farnsy the 8th inning guy?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully it'll be the same situation as HoRam

he might start in that role, but there’s almost no chance of him keeping it very long

by Top Ramen on Feb 28, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

we all know that its a flexible situation

anything is possible

either guy could have 8 bad innings and end up losing the setup role

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Numbers in the bullpen are going to be interesting

The wild-card is HoRam, who will definitely be in the pen if he doesn’t make the rotation. Here’s how I see it breaking down

Locks – Soria, Farnsworth, Cruz, Mahay

Will likely make the roster – Waechter, Gobble, Bale, Tejeda

Long-shots – Peralta, Rosa

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Feb 28, 2009 5:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn't be surprised to see Bale start on the 15-day DL

with the thyroid surgery coming up. He might not be ready arm-strength wise at the start of the season

by Top Ramen on Feb 28, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And this probably seals Peralta's fate

He’ll need some help packing his bags to head to Omaha

by Top Ramen on Feb 28, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

does he have options left?

it seems like he’s gone back and forth like 500 times

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I really think he and Waechter are fighting for a spot

I don’t see any reason to assume Moore loves Waechter and dislikes Peralta. He threw similar amounts of money at both of them.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yea, I guess so

i would give the edge to Dw just based on the fact that they made an effort to bring him, which seems to suggest they like something about him (and no, I’m not saying this is wrong or a bad thing)

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But also, the Royals could have non-tendered Peralta

They chose to keep him just as they chose to bring in Waechter. I don’t know which Moore likes better. I don’t know that he knows for sure at this point.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Did you know that hypothyroidism is very rare in cats?

Just one of those life lessons I’ve picked up on the way.

We return you now to the Juan Cruz thread already in progress.

by 2X2L on Feb 28, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

laughing in public

The first thing I know about someone in a KC hat is that they're loyal.

by grantfunk on Mar 2, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

by that i mean

your post was so funny i’m…

The first thing I know about someone in a KC hat is that they're loyal.

by grantfunk on Mar 2, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why is Waechter likely?

I think he’s as “on the bubble” as anybody.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

another long shot

if bale isnt able to go : DiNardo

Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.

by focs on Feb 28, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think DiNardo is all but guaranteed to start the season in Omaha

Don’t see him making the club straight out of ST

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Feb 28, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

whatever one thinks of the pick-up,

this is an excellent write up, NYR.

does giving up draft picks mean we’ve arrived…?

maybe guillen will hit a double and homer every game of the regular season, and that’s his way of getting us to like him. a very good way.

by Sean O Se on Feb 28, 2009 5:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

an especially good signing

since he can apparently make the ball hover in front of his face just using his mind.

at least that’s what the picture above looks like.

by Sean O Se on Feb 28, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That ball hovering talent

should be worth almost as much as grit.

Sarcasm . . . keeping Royals fans sane since 1986.

by Chico Lind with pants on on Feb 28, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

HOME RUN!

Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.

by focs on Feb 28, 2009 5:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Woops wrong thread hahaha

Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.

by focs on Feb 28, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So, is this a sign that Moore thinks the Royals have a decent shot at the division?

We were supposedly already over budget, but just added ~1M* to the payroll.

* Cruz’s 2.25 M – German’s 1.2 M (assuming he can be traded, 1.0 if not)

by Top Ramen on Feb 28, 2009 5:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Depending on how the 2B "battle" goes

I wouldn’t be surprised if Grudz comes back on a 1 yr / 1.5M deal if they’re serious about trying to take the division.

by Top Ramen on Feb 28, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

When's the last time an 81 win team won a division?

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by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Breakouts!

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

heh... good point

anyway Dayton can trade the Royals to the NL West for the Dodgers?

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by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but he has to agree to take Odalis Perez

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like the signing

but then again I’m not a Royal Review writer. Back to the scissoring

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 28, 2009 6:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I like the signing, too

actually. But I’m not an RR writer, either.

The frustration I have is thinking about this in context. But you can read about that in the FanShot thread. I’m not going to emote further here.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It is certainly true that this signing does not save the offseason for the Royals

It doesn’t even turn it from an awful season to a merely bad season. It was still awful. It’s just a little less awful now than it was 4 hours ago.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Mar 1, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know....

Petro is very excited with this offseason.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Mar 1, 2009 1:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And....

The weak division and the progress of some of the young veterans is what gives the Royals a shot this year, NOT the FA signings.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Mar 1, 2009 1:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess we'll find out

But I tend to disagree. A lot. :)

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Mar 1, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is a surprisingly very good contract for the Royals

by happydrifter on Feb 28, 2009 6:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

started off very strong...

i’m just worried what the trend is now…

by royalsreview on Feb 28, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

quit worrying, start believing!

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 7:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Most of the recent data isn't so good

But just as you shouldn’t evaluate any player solely on one season of play, you can’t evaluate a GM based solely on one offseason. So far his overall track record on bullpens is good.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Which is why it’s so tough to figure out the Farnsworth deal. This is a much more what I’d expect from Moore when it comes to constructing a bullpen.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Mar 1, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is what you'd expect from any decent GM who doesn't mind losing a 2nd round pick

It’s a good move, but it’s not like this is out of nowhere — “hey, did you know Juan Cruz was valuable.” It’s like the Greinke deal, a very good deal, but it’s not like DMGM just figured out Greinke was good or that it is smart to lock up young talent.

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by devil_fingers on Mar 1, 2009 12:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And yet Moore was the GM that actually signed Cruz.

No it is not an earth shattering deal involving a pitcher who is secretly good, but no one else knew it. But he’s a genuinely very good reliever that Moore actually landed, and for a good price/years/option combo.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 1:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if he had done this earlier in the offseason

we may have given him a pass on Farns

by marbotty on Mar 1, 2009 5:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ok...

but earlier in the offseason people where signing big contracts… now we see what the depression recession has done.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Mar 1, 2009 9:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe you mean

“most of the recent moves don’t appear so good”; seeing as how no data actually exists yet relating to this offseason. I think pre-judging the results of an offseason is just as bad a mistake as using a limited sample size to define a player/GM.

by benfunke on Mar 2, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This argument again

Do you think that no one should evaluate any player during an offseason? I said that the moves “don’t appear good.” Right now they don’t. Farnsworth looks like a shitty pitcher making a lot of money. Could he magically become good in 2009? I suppose, but it is very unlikely.

You can evaluate players based on past performance. I’m not saying that I know exactly how all of these players are going to perform in 2009. But we can look at the available data (and there’s a lot of data) to evaluate these moves.

If Moore had given Greg Norton a 4-year, $40M contract, would you say that we can’t say if that was a good or bad move until he actually played a season or two of that contract? Is past performance irrelevant to player evaluation? Is every player a clean slate all offseason? I guess we really don’t know if Pujols will be any good in 2009 because we don’t have any 2009 data yet.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, a cool nickname is worth a lot

“Anti-Virus.” A nice combination of originality and immediate recognition.

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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

NYR, maybe i misinterpreted what you meant my “recent data”, but you can’t say ’it’s okay to use rely on recent data to evaluate offseason moves’ on one hand and ‘it isn’t okay to use only one season of data to evaluate a player’ on the other.

The point I’m trying to make is that it’s too soon to draw CONCLUSIONS about offseason moves, good or bad. I’m of course totally on board with making INFERENCES based on existing data, but I get irked when it’s presented as if we KNOW exactly what is going to happen (or we KNOW exactly how the data translates to the newly-formed set of variables under which the season will be played).

I heard Greg Norton’s been working privately with Seitzer (with side-session tutorials on grit) and is former Mariner/Brave, so I don’t see how we could afford not to.

by benfunke on Mar 2, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

NYR, maybe i misinterpreted what you meant my "recent data", but you can’t say ’it’s okay to use rely on recent data to evaluate offseason moves’ on one hand and ‘it isn’t okay to use only one season of data to evaluate a player’ on the other.

What that comment was talking about was Dayton Moore. I was referring to the “recent data” of his moves as a GM. Recent data would be acquisitions he made this offseason. And I cautioned that using “recent data” alone to evaluate a GM is not a good idea. Nor is it a good idea to evaluate players (including recent Moore acquisitions) solely by recent data (like one season’s statistics).

The point I’m trying to make is that it’s too soon to draw CONCLUSIONS about offseason moves, good or bad. I’m of course totally on board with making INFERENCES based on existing data, but I get irked when it’s presented as if we KNOW exactly what is going to happen (or we KNOW exactly how the data translates to the newly-formed set of variables under which the season will be played).

No one has said that we know what is going to happen. But we can evaluate these moves and these players right now based on all of the available information. Is this a final evaluation? No. Might they surprise us in 2009? Certainly.

So I think one can fairly say that Farnsworth is a poor pitcher and that his contract was a bad one for the Royals. Is this definite? No. It’s an opinion based on available facts. Will 2009 and 2010 performance data affect the evaluation of that contract? Definitely. But I think it is fair to evaluate and give opinions now. I don’t think one should get too picky over the semantics of someone saying “Farnsworth’s contract sucks” or “Moore had an awful offseason.” I think those are fair opinions to give based on available information. Yes there is an implied caveat that this opinion is based on how things look right now and that the future is uncertain.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ok, i understand what you were saying a little better now (maybe i don’t tend to think of GM actions as data points, but maybe we should (is www.baseballGMprospectus.com registered yet?)). it’s also hard to convey via blog comment that i’m not calling you or anyone else out, i’m just voicing a concern (maybe a semantic pet peeve) about referring to unknowns as if they have been resolved. i’m sure the semantics i’m griping about was more of an offhand remark than a calculated statement, but stating that

Most of the recent data isn’t so good

is saying that we know what is going to happen. Hence, i suggested a term such as “appears” to convey that we’re looking at an estimation (and looking at it from the outside) rather than “is”.
We’ve certainly made too much out of this already, but as i said, it’s a semantic difference that i find important.

by benfunke on Mar 2, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nor is it a good idea to evaluate players (including recent Moore acquisitions) solely by recent data (like one season’s statistics).

Unless of course NY is trying to trash Kyle Farnsworth, then it is perfectly acceptable to only use the last season of data to establish that he is a Peice of shit because it fits with his argument. Preceeding data doesn’t fit with his argument, so it is of course non-applicable. Using recent data to evaluate Peralta however is just retarded. That should never be done because past data shows that he was effective, so any hicup must be a stastical anomoly.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Am I only referencing one season of statistics for Farnsworth?

No. His last two seasons have been very bad. Most analysts think it makes the most sense to look at the past three seasons, weighting them on a sliding scale (like 3-4-5). Evaluating Farnsworth in that manner, he looks pretty damn bad. Sorry.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I still don't get this criticism

of course things might turn out better or worse than we think, but peoplp emake judgements all the time before they see the results. How do we vote for politicians? How do policy makers decide which way to go?

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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I also like Cruz.

Sure makes for an expensive bullpen though: Farns 4.5, Yabuta 3.0, Mahay 4.0, Cruz 2.25, HoRam 1.8+, Goobs 1.35, Bale 1.2, Soria 1.0, Waechter .64, Tejeda .4. Dollars aside, I see some real production out of this group (with some notable exceptions.)

by Steve Hovley on Feb 28, 2009 6:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I like Mahay

but I’m glad his numbers come off next year. Yabuta was just bad scouting on the part of Trey IMO. Good to get your hat in the ring of the Japanese market even if it didn’t workout. Wrongly I’ll chock that up as a decent PR move and a bad personnel move.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 28, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In retrospect, I think it is dangerous to sing a Japanese pitcher who relies heavily on a splitter/forkball

The Japanese baseball is smaller, so it is easier for a person with an average sized hand to get his index finger and middle finger on either side of it. Unless you’ve got a big hand, it’s harder with an American baseball. I think for some Japanese pitcher, it’s hard to get a good grip and the right feel for the pitch with an American baseball.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Definitely

I heard the string on the ball in Japan is higher allowing for a better grip too. If the Japanese guys don’t have gas don’t sign them because I think we’ve been shown their control isnt going to be the same.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 28, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The dollars/production ratios of that group are all screwed up

Mahay, Yabuta, and Farns the top three earners, HoRam 5th… Maybe Bale just said “screw it, if those losers are getting paid more than me, I’m going to punch this wall with my thyroid.”

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good post, but two problems:

what does this have to do with A-ROID or Manny’s contract situation?

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 6:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm

I can make Cruz’s signing fit. First, Cruz mysteriously adds velocity at age 28. Probably some PED they can’t yet test for. ARod probably gave them to him. Second, Boras probably engineered this to get as many FA’s signed to push the Dodgers to sign Manny.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 6:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Cruz might have a cousin that doesn't exist also

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 28, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's simply Juan being Juan...ny

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This here internet shit is somethin' else.

As soon as I hear we make a trade, I go to my favorite site and there’s already a bio piece on the new guy and scintillating discourse on the relative merits……thank you, my friends.

by Steve Hovley on Feb 28, 2009 6:38 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

WHAT ABOUT MANNY'S CONTRACT?

HAS HE SIGNED YET???? I’M WAITING ON PINS AND NEEDLES HERE!!!

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 28, 2009 7:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm saying Rosa now has no shot to make the club out of spring

Unless there are some injuries of course. This is a good thing for the Royals as he’ll season a little more down there and be completely ready by next year. This also gives him one more year of starting in AAA. He’ll learn more about getting good hitters out and how to use his pitches effectively. This ensures that he’ll be COMPLETELY ready when he comes up. And probably be up for good.

We didn’t want the “Pez Machine” Peralta (reference to Albie Lopez for you who forgot) to be up here giving up bomb after bomb. I think Peralta’s motion/mechanics are to blame for his spotty control. I don’t know if it’s been talked about, but I doubt he wanted to change anything for our pitching coach guru.

As far as Bale is concerned, he’ll be DL and maybe gone. Who knows. But he’s a guy who is easily replaceable.

Gobble? Maybe more LOOGY matchups this year? That’ll be his best chance after the disaster we call last year. He’s a guy who will bust his butt for you and I think the club is respecting that.

Mahay may bounce back after that foot injury, but he definitely was a different pitcher after the injury last year. Before he was freaking awesome. Nails.

Yabuta… AAA and may come up here and there. A September call up for sure. Waechter, a good chance to do some good things….

What about our boy Jamey Wright?

Anyway, I think Cruz becomes the setup guy for Soria. Farnsworth is now a 7th inning guy. HoRam will be a long guy, Tejeda will be a long guy, Gobble the LOOGY and Mahay splits with Farnsie. That’s 7 for the pen. A starting rotation of Meche, Grienke, Davies (who will “break out”), Hochevar, and Bannister. That gives us 12 pitchers…. do we carry 13?

Go Royals! It’s almost here. Our season to compete! :)

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 7:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Huh?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That is kind of what I was wondering.

And I forgot about DiNardo. I think he’ll make the pen as well!

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=430837

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

plantar fasciitis

When Greg Schaum was in Surprise, he said word in camp behind the scenes was that there was serious doubt about what level Mahay would be able to contribute on this year.

realistically speaking

by slayor on Feb 28, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe Dayton brought Pioli and Haley in...

and they threatened to pull out the fingernails of anyone in the organization that was responsible for any leaks.

Jose said, “Bring it on.”

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 28, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I never said that

"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."

by gashousegang on Mar 26, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i said

they did not think he would ever be at 100% again…but they wanted to see what degree of pain or discomfort it gave him…when i was there …no one thought he looked right yet

"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."

by gashousegang on Mar 26, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That will work

Let Rosa start AAA games until he is needed to start in the show.

by wetleg on Feb 28, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Talk about a signing out of left field.

But, it gives us 4 guys who should strike out at least a batter an innng:
Cruz
Soria
Farnsworth
Tejeda

That’s a pretty vicious foursome, K wise at least. Yikes.

realistically speaking

by slayor on Feb 28, 2009 7:16 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

It makes us LOTS better!

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bale could also

as could Rosa if he gets innings

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 28, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

a couple of things:

I like the signing—I liked Cruz as the beginning of the offseason but after signing farns, I thought we wouldn’t bother with him. of course, this signing rekindles deep feelings that I thought I had gotten over—why did we sign farns?! what was the point? who else made an offer remotely close to ours? ok, i feel better now.

both franchises in KC lose their 2nd round pick today—wonder who will get the most value for that?

obviously, if Grudz signs, it would make the loss of a 2nd round pick much more palatable— But, with the way guys drop for signability reasons and international free agents—2nd round picks are not a huge deal.

by nwroyal on Feb 28, 2009 7:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hmmmmm

A franchise QB for a 2nd round pick and a cornerstone of the Bullpen for a 2nd round pick.

This bears watching!!

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

actually

Cassell AND Vrabel for the 2nd round pick.

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Feb 28, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good catch. :)

Forgot about Vrabel

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So where does Grudz sign so we get our sandwich pick?

And what happens if he signs AFTER the draft, do we get a sandwich for the next year?

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 7:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mmmmm.....sandwich

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cruz usually throws his fastball over-the-top, but his slider and change are usually released from a slightly lower arm slot.

Is this not something that’s easily detectable by hitters?

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Feb 28, 2009 7:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

career 9.35 K/9 would make it seem otherwise

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that's why I was wondering.

It seems like that’s something they might be able to pick up on. But this is the one part of baseball I have no clue about.

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Feb 28, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not a wildly different arm slot

It’s not like one is over the top and the other is 3/4ths. It’s the kind of thing that you can easily see in the Pitch f/x data, but isn’t so easy when you’re the batter facing him. I think the release point is only different by a few inches.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oh, okay

thanks, I guess that makes more sense

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Feb 28, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I mean, I assume that it isn’t easy for batters to pick up the different releases because he’s been so effective.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You get 10 days to make a trade with DFA, maybe German can be of value to someone

it would take 10 decades for someone to take TPJ. Besides, GMDM might be able to score a Paulo Orlando or low-A level arm by dealing Steve German. Or something.

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

so what happens to guys like this?

Can he stay in camp and work out but just not play for those 10 days? Or is he banished to the hinterlands?

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Feb 28, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's off the 40-man roster immediately

But I think he can still practice with the team and probably play in ST games. You don’t have to be on the 40-man roster to play in a ST game.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure somebody will want him.

There has to be a national league team that could use him. You can’t tell me the Pirates couldn’t find a spot on their roster for Esteban

realistically speaking

by slayor on Feb 28, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

His on base skills should get him a gig somewhere

his aversion to leather may relegate him to career utility-dom.

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 8:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In this market, his price tag will hurt him

Usually teams wouldn’t mind spending $1M on a utility IFer, but in this market he’s overpriced. It would help if the Royals toss in a little cash.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 8:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point

the “in this market” phrase has to be maddening to players/agents.

Maybe someone can mock up a post with the prospective 2010 free agent class and a couple of macroeconomic models to determine if next year the phrase will be “in this $%^&* market”.

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the 2010 FA class

Link

But I’m going to pass on the macroeconomic models. I’m betting salaries go up next offseason, but I have no idea how much.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, and trends show that salaries usually increase

but year-over-year figures show growth is slowing. Will be interesting to see how the next release of data, with or without outliers like Sabathia and Texiera, affects the slope of the trendline.

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I just think that after the market contracted this offseason, it will expand again. I think the economy will be slowly ticking upwards and owners will be planning for a better 2010 economy. I think they will spend more, but cautiously.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

more optimistic than

I am on our national economy.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 28, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

so, we're picking up crisp's option i take it?

i’m sure it will depend on how he plays this year, but there really are no other viable options for the royals in 2010 from within the organization or through free agency.

by 9il on Feb 28, 2009 9:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We have no idea

There aren’t particularly good FA options in CF. But DDJ is an option CF. And there are always trade possibilities. And then there’s the possibility of letting Crisp go and then re-signing him. Or they could even sign him to a multi-year deal for less than the option amount. Lots of possibilities.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe

but this offseason, at least, there were a fair amount of league minimum/minor league deal guys who probably aren’t as good as Crisp, but could have made very good platoon guys/4th outfielders/stopgap CFs for next to nothing (and without giving up as much talent).
None of these guys are great, and most (but not all) of them share the same profile: terrible bat, good glove. As Dave Cameron suggests in the article linked above, these guys are average being around half a win below league average, or about 0.5-1 win worse than Crisp in 2009. That might be an area of the market people are still missing out on next year, too. Another example of why teams shouldn’t pay out for bench players.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

although

it would be silly to waste time in games on him unless it would lift his market value somehow – not a certain thing. Better to just play the guys that are staying around.

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Feb 28, 2009 8:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That would be the reason to play him

To showcase him to other teams who would send a scout to Royals games to see how he looks. I’m not saying he should definitely get a lot of playing time, but there would at least be one good reason to do so.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A Banner Day For KC

The Chiefs get Cassel, and the Royals get Cruz. …Is it Christmas? – TL

by timlacy on Feb 28, 2009 7:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Christmas comes tomorrow

in the form of revenge at the Fieldhouse

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're talking to...

…a Mizzou fan here. It’s about time for a Big Time road win for the Tigers. – TL

by timlacy on Feb 28, 2009 7:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's why they play the games

well, that, and the chance to see dejected Tigger fans

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

MY GOD!

Have you paid attention to the Missouri baseball team these last two weeks! Normally Missouri waits until April to choke and collapse. What was the rush this year?

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 28, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's better than Christmas

It’s February 28th! (And we got 6 inches of snow)

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and my vehicle

did a 360 today on the highway. I hate snow.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 28, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol. HS baseball practice starts Monday in Missouri....

I hate being indoors.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kansas as well.

I think.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 28, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm glad you are safe and at home blogging. :)

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

me too.

Definitely a “holy shit” moment once I was on the shoulder.

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 28, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Did that once-

360’d on I-35. Totaled my car just north of the 75th st exit. scary stuff man.

The Snozberries taste like Snozberries

by labbadabba on Feb 28, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that's really insensitive

and politically incorrect. I’m going to cancel my subscription.

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Feb 28, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're right, it was politically incorrect

I shouldn’t have called him a graduate.

Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz

by JayhawkTom on Feb 28, 2009 8:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think his max effort face is pretty ugly. It’s the pitcher’s version of the Oh-face. Pretty much every pitcher looks ugly in that instant. Other than that he looks pretty normal.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, they are almost all funny, but some cross over into UGH

Dan Duffy, iirc, has a pretty funny one, almost like he’s trying not to make a face.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 28, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Greinke's is horrific

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome

I love that he was so excited about Juan Cruz that he brought it up himself.

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Feb 28, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I love it. :)

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I love - repeat, LOVE - this move!

NYRoyal – I’m with you bro – this was a fantastic move that deserves our recognizing Moore’s skills for pulling off. Remember – part of what makes this move impressive is that it again demonstrates that Moore has a fantastic ability to get the Glasses to loosen the purse strings. Success is sure to follow this formula.

by royalstern05 on Feb 28, 2009 9:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think Cruz is very good, but the move isn't fantastic

The fact that the Royals are losing a second round draft pick makes the move less sparkling. But I really think Cruz has a good chance to be a dominant setup man for the Royals.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 28, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's amazing.

2nd rounder… meh…. it’s like the 66th pick or something.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Feb 28, 2009 10:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know about you...

but I think I would have given up a 2nd round pick for Cruz straight up. We get a good, proven pitcher that we don’t have to hope works out for a pick that we probably won’t make an impact with…

Seems like a good deal to me.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Mar 1, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get the lament for the #55 overall pick

Seriously? We are going to (in all likelihood) get THREE Way Above Average bullpen seasons out of Cruz, which is a HELL of a lot more than we get out of most 2nd round picks.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great and unexpected news.

I have nothing bad to say about this signing at all. It is all good.

I am mildly unhappy to learn German was DFAed. But that is a small lose compared to what the Royals added today.

This is the first off-season move by Dayton Moore this year that I think actually improves both the 2009 and 2010 rosters.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 28, 2009 9:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Best day of German's life:

Getting traded to the Royals for our 2006 Rule V pick so that he could be the Royals starting 2B

Worst day in German’s life:
Grudz gets signed as a free agent the next day.

I hope he winds up someplace he gets a chance to play. Being Willie Bloomquist’s backup would have had to be unnerving.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Feb 28, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW

I would have LOVED to see Moore DFA Pena today, and hold on to German. If Callaspo or Aviles is hurt this means the Royals will carry Pena as the back-up infielder. I’d much rather it be German.

But the German/Pena chopping order is small potatoes compared to the acquisition of Cruz. This guy should really help the club.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 28, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think DM

feels that German was capable of defensivly backing up Aviles. I think we see Pena and Teahen and possibly Gload as our utility players. Of course that means we carry 14 position players… don’t know if that will happen

The Snozberries taste like Snozberries

by labbadabba on Feb 28, 2009 11:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've seen German play enough to know that the only positions he can handle at all

are 1B and 2B. I think that is what has caused him to have such a limited career. If he could play short or third to even an acceptable level he would be much more valuable.

Of course I would rather have Jose Guillen play SS than Tony Pena. Pena just has such a poor bat that there is no way his defense could ever be good enough to merit him receiving playing time or a roster spot.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Mar 1, 2009 12:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think TPJ should be done

but he was a decent player last year 1.6 WAR. NOt average, but a decent stopgap. If he could keep that up, I’d rather have h im and Aviles manning the middle infield than just about anyone else other than Callaspo out of the current group (Teahen should be playing RF). But he can’t, so…

So much for the Royals version of Adam Everett

Going the same way as their version of Endy Chavez (Gathright)

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 1, 2009 1:01 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes

thanks for the clarification

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 1, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wow, great signing

Too bad about Steve Deutsch, though.

by marbotty on Mar 1, 2009 12:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

BTW, shouldn't the title of this post be

“The Newest Royal: Former Brave Juan Cruz”?

by marbotty on Mar 1, 2009 5:22 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

I'm happier than a pig in shit.

I identified Cruz as a potential target way back in September of last year. I can’t believe that it took that little to sign him.

And for those lamenting the draft pick loss. Look, I like draft picks too, but a 2nd round pick and a way below market value contract fur a proven guy like Cruz is an absolute Steal IMO.

And for those of you that are still on the Soria to the Rotation bandwagon; My original reasoning for going after a guy like Cruz was to give GMDM another option of a guy that COULD close if that was the direction the Royals wanted to go…

A++++++++++++++ move by the Royals

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 11:12 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

k-rod: 3/$37M

cruz: 3/$9.5M.

not that i wouldn’t like k-rod. but i we’re better off with cruz and saving $9M a season.

by 9il on Mar 1, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

According to Stat Corner

Cruz wa a good as F-Rod last year, anyway.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 1, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I love the Boom Roasted sig. Lol.

Still makes me laugh.

Andy, Cornell called, they said you suck. Lol… i’m still laughing at that one. Boom! Roasted!

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Mar 3, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm still happy

And I keep thinking of more reasons why..

I’ve been pretty quiet about the Farnsworth signing this offseason. My reason for that was because I was pretty torn on it. I think Farnsy can be an effective reliever, but I really didn’t like him as an 8th inning guy.

With this signing, you are looking at having the potential to shorten games to SIX innings for the opposing offense IMO. Farnsy – 7, Cruz – 8, Mexicutioner – 9.

Now, Farnsy isn’t lock down like the 8th & 9th guys are, but as already posted, having Him & Tejada both are BOTH guys taht can come in & get a K. Toss a CORRECTLY used LOOGY like Gobble, and the potential for a dominant bullpen is there again.

If we could have finagled $3 M more out of Glasses coffers last week & signed O-Dog, we’d be in the drivers seat in ’09!

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 2:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

See, this is why you shouldn't have been torn about the Farnsworth signing

By your estimation, he might be an acceptable guy to share 7th inning duty with Tejeda. You don’t waste $4.5M per year over two years on basically just another middle reliever.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And

whether it’s 7th or 8th, I’m still nervous to trot Farnsy out there. He will be shaky, unreliable, and likely to give up homers. Is a homer in the 7th less damaging? Yes, perhaps, but only very slightly.

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Mar 1, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Farnsy >>>>>Peralta, Fulchino, Yabuta

And most others that we’ve had plugged into that 7th inning role

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Have you seen Peralta's statistics from years other than 2008?

Is 2008 all that counts? If so, Farnsy is one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Have you seen video tape of last year?

It wasn’t a “Statistical Anomoly”. The guy SUCKED. His breaking ball was shit. His fastball was straight.

If he comes out this Spring & is lights out, fine, I’ll re-evaluate it, but, oops, he’s ALREADY GIVEN UP ONE HOME RUN.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Who?

Yabuta?

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Mar 1, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately

For NY (but fortunately for us), there is no statistical analysis of Yabuta from ‘04-’07, otherwise we’d have to hear about how great he is too

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think most people

thought Yabuta was likely a bit of a gamble. One that we paid a lot for.

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Mar 1, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

At least he'd had a lot of recent success in Japan

Sometimes those guys pan out and sometimes they don’t. And it’s not like the Royals broke the bank for him.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it could have been worse

they could have paid Jennifer Love Hewitt 3/$12M to sing during the 7th innings stretch based on her recent success in Japan.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 1, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not as hot

But I still like her a lot

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The standards for "hot" are ridiculously high on sports blogs.

It makes me feel bad.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Mar 1, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So one year of Peralta is all that does matter, huh?

First, looking at one year is an awful way to evaluate any player. Second, did you see Farnsworth last year? The guy SUCKED. But his 2008 means nothing, while Peralta’s 2008 means everything? Do you see any inconsistency here?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No

I didn’t watch Farnsworth a lot last year b/c he wasn’t a Royal.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Leave it to NY

To try to piss on my parade when I am happy the Royals made a move.

Thanks NY, but I have an umbrella big enough for you today.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You brought up Farnsworth

And I responded. So you’re confident that Farnsworth is better than Peralta because you watched Peralta and didn’t watch Farnsworth. I got it now.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK...

Look at their stat lines over the last 4 years. A lot of them look similar.

KF 255 IP 271 K 104 BB 236 H 1.33 WHIP
JP 248 IP 191 K 64 BB 251 H 1.27 WHIP
 
Both have had exactly ONE terrible stretch of baseball. Coincidentally, both terrible stretches were last season. They are separated in age by less than one month. Yet you inexplicably come to the undying defense of one, and have nothing but bile for the other.

A little closer look at the numbers

KF BABIP – ‘05 – .261.. ’06 -.327.. ’07 – .296.. ’08 – .335
JP BABIP – ’05 – .245.. ’06 – .298..’07 – .317.. ’08 – .271

Interesting that in Peralta’s WORST season he had his BEST (Full Season) BABIP. When Farnsworth had his WORST season he had his WORST BABIP. Who was the victim of bad luck?

I didn’t watch KF closely last season. His stuff may have gone to shit as well, or he may have had shitty luck. But I am 100% CERTAIN that JP had NOTHING working last season, and if you’d take your head out of the statistical gutter, and WATCH HIM PITCH, you would inevitably come to the same conclusion.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder why you went back 4 years

Actually, no I don’t. I know exactly why you went back four years. You did that because Farnsy was good in 2005 and 2006, but bad in 2007 and 2008. So you have to go back four years to find two good years to counterbalance the two (more recent) bad years.

Farnsy’s last two years have been quite bad (FIP’s in both years over 5, and correspondingly bad tRA’s). Peralta has had one off year. Have you noticed that Farnsworth’s sudden fall (2007-2008, as compared to 2005-2006) matches his decrease in fastball velocity? He’s lost 1.5 mph off of his fastball. I hope you understand how important that is to a pitcher who relies heavily on blowing batters away with his speed. And the bad thing is that at his age, he’s likely to continue to lose velocity.

Yeah, I watched Peralta pitch. (would that have had more impact if I used all caps?) And I saw him have some really bad luck on fly balls. Basically you saw home runs and jumped to the conclusion that “NOTHING worked.” I really don’t think your in-depth tools-based analysis trumps the statistical record.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

seems like we could work in a joke about minda here

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

-1

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Mar 2, 2009 2:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey NY...

I went back 4 years because Peralta pitched 4 years.

I don’t pick and choose statistics that support my argument, and ignore the ones that don’t as you do. Case in point; you bring up KF’s 5.something FIP, and choose to ignore Peralta’s 6.3 FIP and lower BABIP, which does nothing but point to the fact that he wasn’t fooling ANYBODY.

And if you watched Peralta pitch, and think that he was a victim of bad luck as opposed to being a victim of being a shitty pitcher than you really should take up another sport to watch.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 9:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not ignoring Peralta’s bad 2008. I’m just looking at it in context of his last few years. And I’m doing the same for Farnsworth. I see one of them losing velocity over the last two years, with stats to match. I see another pitcher who had very bad HR/FB luck. Sorry, them’s the facts.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Again

It isn’t luck if you are throwing a cureveball that has no break and a fastball that has straightened out. I don’t care how fast it is moving, if it is straight, it is getting hit, so even though KF may have lost velocity, his HR/FB ratio (if I remember correctly) didn’t spike last year like Jp’s did.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you realize

Do you realize that the research shows that any variance from the norm of HR/FB percentage is luck? There is a MLB-wide average of about 11. Over time, the vast majority of pitchers will have a HR/FB percentage of 11. There will be deviations above and below that from year to year, but that is luck, not skill. It’s a lot like BABIP.

So, when HR/FB spikes, it isn’t because a pitcher’s stuff has suddenly changed (and Peralta’s stuff didn’t change, nor did his approach). It’s basically luck. Luck happens. Off years happen. Unfortunately Farnsworth is experiencing the FB velocity decline which is common for pitchers in their 30’s. That’s not luck.

Let’s be honest. You didn’t see anything different in Peralta’s curveball or fastball. His FB velocity was unchanged last year, and yet it has suddenly “straightened out”? Please.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You can be such an ass

All you do is attempt to talk down to people that differ in opinion from you.

YES, his stuff changed. If you seriously think that pitchers somehow are born with a skillset that doesn’t change at all from season to season, hell game to game you really have no business blogging about baseball.

I have no idea where to look, but somewhere on the internets that HAS to be footage of him from ’06 & ’07 when, I agree, he was an effective pitcher, and footage from last year when he was wretched. There absolutely was a difference, especially in his breaking stuff.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

apologize in advance for my title

got carried away

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

All you do is attempt to talk down to people that differ in opinion from you.

That’s not all I do. That’s just one of the things I do. :) And I don’t talk down to everyone who disagrees with me. Just a significant subset of the group of people who disagree with me. I’ll leave it up to you to figure out what the people in that subset have in common.

YES, his stuff changed

What evidence do you have of this? Anything other than your personal scouting opinion? Certainly his velocity and usage patterns didn’t change. Is there any evidence that his stuff changed in 2008? Of course tools change over time. Usually pitchers don’t suddenly just lose it all of the sudden at his age. So I’d like to see evidence other than a flukey/unlucky HR/FB spike.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

 I’ll leave it up to you to figure out what the people in that subset have in common.

You mean us ancient baseball folk that think there is more to the game than stats?

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No, you're probably all left handed

And I fucking hate lefties!

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If I was a lefty

I’d still be pitching

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's what she said.

Really, it is. (sigh)

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Mar 1, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

except

I don’t think you get to count both Cruz and Hudson. It’s one or the other.

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Mar 1, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I dont care about the $$

Its not my $$, and there is more of it to spend that you STILL give credit for

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 2:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Then you should be saying that the Royals should have signed

Manny Ramirez
Rafael Furcal
C.C. Sabathia
Adam Dunn
A.J. Burnett

It’s not your money!

Or we could talk about a realistic budget.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Glass has all that Wal-Mart money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111

And you know, pro sports owners spend their personal wealth on payroll all the time. Revenues are irrelevant.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

awesome

I haven’t heard DM say Manny rumors are “an absolute lie” yet. In fact, since we have no rumors, the deal is actually more likely.

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Mar 1, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Every single time

this offseason when GM DM has come out & said, “We are about capped out”, he’s gone out & spent MORE MONEY!!!!!! Yet you still argue this point every time.

And don’t be an *******, I’ve never insinuated that any of the above players were feasible. I’ve never insinuated that we have an unlimited budget. I’ve been CONSISTENTLY pointing to $80M as a good number that KC can manage, and work with.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Mar 1, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you on $80m

Unfortunately, I ain’t the guy that gots it.

Fourth to First

by kabrink on Mar 1, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure the Royals are about to sign Furcal

…no wait, he’s already signed. Then I’m sure they are about to sign Hudson…no wait, he’s already gone. Ok, I think they’re done. That is unless you think the Royals might sign another $2M player. That is possible.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 1, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Methinks

We have a pretty good pitching staff this year, especially if 1) HoRam works out of the pen and 2) Farnsy somehow manages to only kind of suck. A bullpen with Soria, Cruz, HoRam, Mahay (assuming he can play), and Farnsy being brought in to throw five pitches high and inside to scare the crap out of opposing batters and then picking a fight, ought to be better than just OK.

I agree that this is a very expensive bullpen, but at least some of them are good players.

As for Dayton’s decision-making, hey, you win some, you lose some. Yabuta was one that didn’t work out, and Farnsy is likely to be another, but there’s no question this team is a lot better than it was three years ago.

Sorry to hear that Esty got released, but he’ll catch on somewhere. Now let’s cut Gload and TPJ, or even better let TPJ try pitching a few innings at Double A and see what happens. He’d certainly be the best-fielding pitcher in the league, at least, and I like sidearmers.

It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.

by Juancho on Mar 2, 2009 6:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

mahay is gravy

but if he plays and farns is OK…

look out

by royalsreview on Mar 2, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It is kind of funny

that there was a general uproar about losing the second round pick when the Royals were contemplating signing a 2.0-3.0 WAR position player, but it was no big loss when signing a 0.5-1.5 WAR reliever.

I have liked Cruz since his Oakland days. He instantly becomes the second best pitcher in the bullpen, although it will be tough for him to top Ramon Ramirez’s performance last year (to be fair, it will be tough for Ramirez himself to repeat his 2008). That 15% swinging strike rate is something special, but it does come with a high walk rate. But unlike Farnsworth, Cruz is willing to give up the walk instead of a home run. Cruz is basically the guy that Moore was probably hoping Farnsworth could become.

The move is not without risks, though. The walks are a yellow flag, as is a move to the AL – he will lose Ks just from not facing pitchers. Given the number of walks, Cruz may become a polarizing member of the bullpen – we should expect a lot of K/BB/BB/K/long-fly ball innings (hopefully with more long fly ball outs than hits). And as I think Fangraphs pointed out, Cruz has never really pitched regularly in high leverage situations. One related concern is that while he did quite well against left-handed hitters last year, it might be an outlier, as he has historically had trouble with left-handed hitters. One key to his success will be managing the number of times he faces lefties. If there are several lefties coming up, hopefully Hillman will realize that Mahay is the better play even if Cruz is his designated "8th inning guy."

The contract is a bit of a puzzler in the context of the entire offseason (paying full price for another bullpen arm), but as an individual move, its terms are certainly reasonable.

by Gopherballs on Mar 2, 2009 3:53 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

great first line

I thought of mentioning that, but I didn’t want another firefight

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

When you are late to the party

you can usually get away with saying more things.

by Gopherballs on Mar 2, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Was the uproar about the Royals potentially signing a 2-3 WAR player about Hudson?

And was this when Hudson came up recently? I ask because back when people thought Hudson would sign for three years and $10-11M per year, then the dollars, plus years (and therefore risk) added to the loss of a second round draft pick seemed like significant downside.

But if there was uproar about this recently when clearly Hudson was going to be cheap and for one year, then that would have been inappropriate in my mind. Was there uproar about losing a pick when people recently discussed Hudson (before he got signed)? I’m not saying there wasn’t; I mostly avoided that discussion, I think.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Looks like NYRoyal stuck around to help clean up

I did not have a linear graph for you showing the number of comments over time, but the 2nd round pick was cited as a reason for not signing Hudson in just about every post I have read this offseason.

But it really should not matter given the difference in WAR. A 2-3 WAR with $4m value per win means a player worth $8-$12m, while a 0.5-1.5 WAR means a player worth about $2-$6m.

by Gopherballs on Mar 2, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't asking for details or proof, just what you were referencing in general

The draft pick was a reason to not sign Hudson, as it was a reason to not sign Cruz. It was not a sufficient reason for either player in and of itself.

But it really should not matter given the difference in WAR. A 2-3 WAR with $4m value per win means a player worth $8-$12m, while a 0.5-1.5 WAR means a player worth about $2-$6m.

My point was that the loss of a draft pick is a factor. If the terms of the contract are good for the player (money and years), then that can easily overcome the loss of a second round draft pick. I like the terms of the Cruz contract. I would have also liked the terms of the Hudson contract (if he had signed for something like that with the Royals). If, however, Hudson would have signed for the royals for 3/33, then the years, dollars and risk for that player would have made it an iffy contract and thus the loss of a second round draft pick in addition would have hurt more.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Aside:

I’m really not that old… but I got a pack of baseball cards today and pulled TWO cards of players I played against in HS and college…. Less than 4 years ago….

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Mar 3, 2009 9:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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