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Is Royal Prospect Jose Duarte Done?

Outfield prospect Jose Duarte is one of five minor leaguers who have been invited to Spring Training in Arizona. In the Royals system since 2005, Duarte is a Baird-era prospect that the Royals have had in centerfield almost exclusively. Durate turns 24 in March, and was the youngest position player at AA last season, where he led the team in games played and at bats.

Star-divide

Duarte's something of an obscure prospect, as he's been eclipsed by both a handful of prominent Baird signees and by the whirlwind of hype that is all things Dayton in the system. As NYRoyal noted in his excellent recap of the state of the farm system last summer, Duarte was ranked as the organization's 13th best position player prospect in 2006. Last year, Baseball America labelled Duarte the "best defensive outfielder" and the "best outfield arm" in the system. Duarte again snagged those labels this off-season, but has yet to emerge as one of the team's top prospects.

At issue is Duarte's bat. He finally displayed a bit of power last season (he hit 10 homers, topping his previous career high of 3), but in doing so also gave up a ton of batting average.

Here's his career numbers:

Age Level ABs BA OBP SLG
20 RK 178 .309 .388 .466
21 A 466 .266 .338 .345
22 A+ 493 .290 .356 .369
23 AA 528 .250 .313 .350

 

As James Quinn pointed out in one of his minor league reports over the summer, Duarte also ran a little last year, stealing 28 bases with 8 times caught (78%).  In October, Royals Nation noted that Duarte was right on the cut-line for whether or not he should be protected via the 40-man roster or not. The Royals did not protect him, but Duarte was not selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Here's what RN wrote:

Projected 2009 Level:  AAA

CF - Jose Duarte (Opening Day Age: 24 / B-T: R/R)

2008 Line:  .250/.313/.350/.663, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 28/36 SBR, 133 G, 585 PA, 3.86 RC/G (AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability Factor:  3 / 5 (Maybe worth protecting / Maybe not)

RN Perspective:  Duarte's two defining strengths, at this point, are speed and an ability to play center field.  The Texas League is always a hitter's league, and it's tough to get enthusiastic about a .663 OPS from an age 23 (a typical AA age) player at that level.  Duarte should repeat the level in 2009 and prove that he's worth keeping.  However - and this is worth considering - he does possess raw talent and tools on the baseaths and in the field.  He's a poor man's Joey Gathright, and that might force teams to take a gander at him in December.  It's debatable whether he's worth devoting a roster spot to simply because of his ceiling and tools.  Scouts love the guy.

As noted above, 23 isn't super precocious when it comes to AA, but Duarte was the youngest outfielder on the team, and other than Chris Lubanski and Brett Bigler (both 23 last season as well) he's the youngest relatively advanced (in terms of level) outfield prospect.

What can you prospect mavens tell me about Duarte? Have you given up on him? Is he someone of relevance to watch this Spring Training?

0 recs  |  Comment 47 comments

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Royals Review Prospect Pulse: June

Jun 2009 by nwroyal - 30 comments

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Call him a young Coco Crisp

that can’t switch hit and see if Boston will give us Ram-Ram back. We’ll throw Gload in too.

by dn_311 on Feb 3, 2009 6:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Here's doublestix's take (if I may)

from Royal Tower

Summary:

Duarte’s upside is perhaps something of Shane Victorino without the home run power. However, he’s most likely a 4th or 5th outfielder at this point, and with a few things going the right way could have something of a career like Endy Chavez.

My emphasis. For those of you who read this, you now know there’s no point to signing Adam Dunn…

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 3, 2009 6:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

thanks

that was like a year ago and i still like the Chavez comp. can play defense but can’t really hit.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Feb 3, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would guess that this year would have to be

a year of progress in offensive performance. If he can’t show promise by the time he is 25, what hope is there, barring an Avillian season?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Feb 3, 2009 8:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

avillian--

excellent adjective.

avillian? gordonian? mechian? sorian?

sounds like star trek races.

by Sean O Se on Feb 4, 2009 12:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think he should can still be considered a prospect.

His numbers have declined as he has advanced. He may be an outstanding CF defender but this skill will never give him a shot at playing as a regular in the majors unless he can do at least a little damage at the plate.

I think he has reached the point were success would be more or a surprise than an expectation.

Unless I am wrong.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 3, 2009 9:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nah,

it looks like Duarte can play defense. If Joey had been a plus defender in CF he would have had a real shot at a good career.

Also Duarte slugged over .340 at all levels above rookie league. There is no way Joey could do that.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 3, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Who is more likely to contribute at the MLB level in your opinion

Duarte or MITCH Maier?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 3, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maier

There is some pop in that bat somewhere he just needs to find it. Duarte is better defensively but Maier is not a defensive hack. Take the guy with the better bat.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 3, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think he is probably a tick above average for a CF

and would be an excellent LF. I don’t think he has the arm to play RF. Duarte has the tools to play all three OF spots but doesn’t have the bat for any of them.

Maiers could be a Royal Melky Cabrera with better CF defense.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 4, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maier

I think Maier is ready to play everyday on an MLB team. I think he is even capable of putting up a batting line around ..280/.325/.400 next year. That would be optimistic, but I can see it. Plus he is fine with the glove in the OF and can run the bases fair well. I know he is three years older than Durante. Maier has already shown he is better than replacement level, and getting close to “average” for a 4th OF level. I think Duarte high end at this point is about the same level of value that Maier has already achieved.

Of course I could be wrong. I like Mitch for some reason. I don’t like Costa as much for some reason. Maybe Mitch represents the new and shiny world of possiblity, and Cost represents the tarnished and old world of Baird era rushed and grumpy prospects.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 4, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A .725 OPS

Would be pretty crummy for an every day outfielder, wouldn’t it?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 4, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The average CF OPS in '08

was .753. So yeah, it would be pretty sucky.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Feb 4, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Below average anyway

Sucky might be a bit strong. AL CF’s hit .746

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Feb 4, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would think so...

unless you’re talking a good defensive CF.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 4, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yup, depends on his defense

Quinn’s projection above is a bit better than his 60th percentile CHONE forecast. If MITCH can play above average center, he’d still bit a bit below average at those rates. the 50th percentile projection has him hitting -13 below average, if you give him +2.5 for CF, then his offense and defense still needs to total about +10 to be an average player.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 4, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Crummy for a everyday starter,

but not for a 4th outfielder. I think he is above replacement level already, and moving towards average.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 4, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Disagree

Maier is filler at best. He’s a slap hitter who likes to go the other way, doesn’t hit for power, and runs the bases well, so essentially he’s a poor man’s Mark Teahen. I agree that he’s more valuable than Costa but it’s like a debate between Ford stock versus GM stock here. Both aren’t worth very much. I also don’t understand your contention that Costa represents the old world of the Baird era and Maier doesn’t, when in fact they were both drafted by him.

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Feb 4, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Pretty much my take

Although I think there is value in having a slappy, good defensive outfielder on your bench making the league minimum.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 4, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Or you get one for $5M for the low-low price of your cost-controlled 2 WAR setup man

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 4, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably just an emotional associate.

I associate Costa with the worst years, and Maier with the “getting better” years.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 4, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Omaha OF with Duarte in CF

I still see Duarte as a prospect but not an impact player. He’ll be a 4th/5th OF type unless he can figure out getting on base at a higher rate. 313 OBP in 2008. I would see him getting quite a few ABs at Omaha in CF.

I am looking at the Omaha OF with Maier, Costa, Duarte, McFall, Lubanski, and Tommy Murphy. Mitch Maier would be a better 4th OF for KC. He has played at AAA for longer and is a good defender. Maier can play any OF spots.

by daveyork on Feb 3, 2009 11:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I wonder about Lubanski

Does he have to play for the Royals next year? Does he have a contract? I think if he can get out he will go minor league free agent. I don’t think the Royals will fight to keep him. The guy has already failed twice in “do it now or get pushed aside” situations. Lubanski gave some quotes last year which indicated he was put out with the Royals for the lack of faith they were showing in him after leaving him off the 40-man roster. Even at AAA he was the third best outfielder.

I put Durante and Lubanski both as C prospects in my book, which means that they have no more than a 5% chance of ever establishing themselves on MLB rosters due to production (as opposed to due to roster desperation). At that point success becomes a welcome surprise, not an expectation. And when you do not expect success, can you really still be called a prospect? Roughly that is where I draw my lines.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 4, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Lubes is eligible for minor league free agency yet

He’s not on this list

. You need six years, and he has six years, so I’m not sure why he’s not on this list, but BA is usually pretty accurate.

I agree the Royals have probably given up on the kid. I still hold out a glimmer of hope, but that ember is dying as well. But you never know, he could go on an Aviles-like rampage.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 4, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Costa

There is a guy who is in limbo. Did he even get called up to the bigs last season?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Feb 4, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He was on the DL

at the critical moment i think.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Feb 4, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lubes and Costa

should be on their way out.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 4, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Part of a package

With Gobble for Jake Peavy.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 4, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the scary part is

regarding the prospect players, the OF is the GOOD part of the system

by royalsreview on Feb 3, 2009 11:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ya but really none of those guys are worth a crap

with the possible exception of Maier as a 4th OF. Dickerson, Robinson, Orlando, Lough, Richardson, Ortiz and Parraz probably all have better tools to work with and higher upsides. I hope someone in the NW Arkansas group makes a move this season.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Feb 4, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The NWA group is one that I am interested in watching for 2009

I see the starting lineup as Dickerson LF, Orlando CF and Parraz RF. I’d like to see D. Robinson return to Wilmington since he is so young. A Blue Rocks outfield of Lough, D. Robinson and Ortiz/Walton/Van Stratten looks strong. The Blue Rocks could cover some serious ground with basically 3 center fielders in Lough, Robinson and Ortiz.

Everyday playing time is important for the minor leaguers but it looks like NWA would have 4 OF if Robinson is promoted for 2009. I would guess it will depend on how much the Royals see Parraz as a prospect. He was an All Star in Carolina League for 2008.

by daveyork on Feb 4, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I gotta disagree with you here Will.

I think the Royals are pretty deep in good arms now. We’ll see how many of pan out, but I think the Royals probably have about dozen minor league pitchers worth keeping an eye on.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 4, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

catchers

I think Will was referring to our hitters only. Pitching is clearly very deep.

They aren’t prospects, but I’d rather have our Omaha catchers in KC. Pena, House, even Vance Wilson.

Go away! Guys, you're gonna wake up my Mom!

by David Howards Legacy on Feb 4, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think when Will said “regarding the prospect players,” he actually meant “regarding the position players.” And I think he’s right that out of the position player prospects, the OFers are better than the IFers. Certainly there are more decent OF prospects than IF prospects. However, the fact that the top two prospects in the organization are IFers skews the analysis a bit.

I think the most positive and the most negative among us realize that the Royals system is very good and very deep in pitching prospects (just not in ones that are close to the majors).

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Feb 4, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Such great defense, such a bad bat.

If only he could get up to Endy level offense, but he’s already fallen behind the Endy curve. At this point in his career, Chavez had already made his major league debut.

by RATW on Feb 5, 2009 2:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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