Bullpen Speculation: What if Peralta continues to shine?
by jsolo on Mar 11, 2009 11:49 PM EDT
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PrintPerlata struck out the side again today making that 8 Ks in his last 3 IP. Although it's a small sample size to date, it does remind you a bit of his 2007 season (3.79 FIP). So what happens if he continues to pitch this well for the next couple weeks? He has no options left - so does he make the team? If so, who's the odd man out?
Here's how I see the 2009 Bullpen situation shaping up so far:
Locks: Soria, Cruz, Mahay, Farnsworth
That leaves 3 spots for: Gobble, Bale, Tejeda, Waechter, Peralta, Rosa, Villarreal, Duckworth, Wright, and Lowery
Not making the team: Villarreal, Wright, and Duckworth are on minor league contracts and will provide pitching depth in Omaha. Rosa is a stud but has options so we'll probably see him during the year, but he starts in Omaha. I believe Lowery has options, but even if not, he's not making the big club.
Realistically then that leaves: Gobble, Bale, Tejeda, Waechter, and Perlata for 3 spots.
Wow. There is actually legitimate competition for those final 3 spots! I actually think all those guys deserve to be on a major league roster.
- Bale would have been a lock until his thyroid surgery, now I see him as a possible DL candidate to start the season. Otherwise if healthy, he makes the team.
- Tejeda is too good and too much of a strikeout pitcher to not make the team. I believe he is a lock as well.
- Gobble is the LOOGY and it seems management finally realizes this. Given the talk that has made its way into the papers and such, I think he's got a pretty good shot to make the team.
- Peralta has been a strikeout machine of late and is making a real case for himself.
- Waechter hasn't really pitched due to illness but is signed to a 640k contact. If released, the Royals would only owe 157k of that, but he does have a decent major league resume.
The way I see it then is that Tejeda, Gobble, and Bale would have had the final 3 except that Bale may end up on the DL. If that's the case I see Peralta getting the nod over Waechter at this point. It's possible that the Royals jettison Gobble if Bale is healthy, in which case I think whoever has had the better spring between Perlata and Waechter makes the team. If Bale is on the DL, I don't see anyway that Gobble is not on the roster.
I hope Peralta continues to pitch well and make this a difficult choice for the Royals. (I'm also assuming HoRam is not a legitimate bullpen candidate if he were to get beat out for a starter spot. With the way the bullpen is shaping up, it's almost a lock that either Banny or Hochevar ends up in Omaha.)
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how long is Mahay out?
also… its amazing how the highest paid guy on that list, Farns, may be the worst
You mean Bale I assume?
He could be ready by opening day but isn’t cleared to throw yet or anything so hard to say. I don’t think they’ll rush him with their depth right now.
Mahay
That’s kind of my question too. How many times have we seen Mahay pitch? A week or so ago there was a short lived rumor that his injury/operation was possibly still a problem. Do we know anything more? He may be a DL candidate to start.
Gobble? Just dump this clown. We can’t afford a LOOGY. Why wouldn’t we want someone more versatile?
As to the others, I haven’t seen any spring games and have only listened to a few so don’t know how everyone is doing. Although, it looks to me that Hochevar definitely makes this team and Banny goes down. Although, a ton of spring left, a lot could happen.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
why exactly can we not afford a LOOGY?
I would argue that a LOOGY would actually be a good addition for a bullpen that looks to revolve around right-handed power arms (Cruz, Professor Farnsworth, and Tejeda).
Also, if Peralta does make the pen, I shudder to think of the number of dingers he and Farnsy will give up between them. I still think Peralta is a long shot to make pen, partly for that reason—he’s so prone to the HR.
Why carry a LOOGY when you already have two LHP who can get righties and lefties out?
It is not like Hillman would bring Gobble in the 5th to face Joe Mauer.
by Gopherballs on Mar 12, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there really any reason to have a LOOGY at all if you already have at least one LHP in the pen?
I’m sincerely asking (everyone). I haven’t read up on this… browsing the web for saber-stuff is much less fun when I “have” to keep up. Add to that the fact that the rate at which cool new stuff keeps increasing exponentially, and that I’m not that bright to begin with, and I may need to retire after this season.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 12, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
and what the hell am I going to write about in-season?
The panic attack should pass soon.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 12, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
It depends on how well your RHP pitch to lefties
The Angels won a World Series stocking their pen with no LHP but plenty of good RHP who could get lefties out. If you have one LHP in the pen, he will not be available every night, so keeping two around should leave a manager with at least one LHP to pitch in a high leverage situation each game. But if the other RHP relievers do well against lefty hitters, the second LHP becomes a luxury item, like a third catcher or fifth outfielder.
He might
although, it sounds like Hillman has learned and admitted that Gobble is nothing more than a loogy.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
both our LHPs (Bale and Mahay)
are old and injury-prone, and at least one of them (Mahay) was no more effective against lefties than righties for us, and the other (Bale) may start the season on the DL. I would not count on either pitcher to stay healthy throughout the duration of the season.
And when our rotation will most likely carry four RHPs and a LH tool (aka HoRam), having a LOOGY in the ’pen is a little more important.
Mahay?
Mahay limited lefties to a line of 255/327/394 (721 OPS), and has a career line against lefties of 229/308/389 (697 OPS). That is pretty good.
And if Bale or Mahay go on the DL, you can always pluck a LOOGY out of the minors, off the waiver wire, or trade a bag of balls for someone else’s AAA LOOGY.
missed the point
My point with Mahay wasn’t that he’s a bad pitcher, just that he’s going to be facing much more RH batting than LH batting. I hesitate to talk about Bale’s effectiveness much because of the limited sample sizes of his last two years with us.
And what LOOGY could we pluck out of the minors? The only LH pitchers on our 40-man roster right now are Bale, Mahay, Gobble, and HoRam. Our LH pitching non-roster invitees were limited to Tim Hamulack (who is awful), Lenny DiNardo (whose MLB splits show him actually getting hit better by LH batters, to the tune of a pretty dismal .813 OPS), and Heath Phillips. I’d take Gobble over any of those guys.
You say that Mahay is no better against Lefties
than Righties as if that were an automatic bad thing. Truth he is just a good all around pitcher who can get guys out on both sides of the the plate. That makes him far more valuable over a full season than any LOOGY.
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
as if it were an automatic bad thing? Please.
Though my support for John Buck may indicate otherwise, I did not just fall into these boards after spending my previous years of existence in a cave.
Again—the point with Mahay is that he is a LH pitcher who doesn’t fit as a LOOGY. Doesn’t mean he’s a bad pitcher, quite the opposite. He and Gobble would be used in very different capacities, as well they should. Of course Mahay is more valuable (and he ought to be, since we are paying him roughly 3-4x as much as we are paying Yimmy).
NEAL MUSSER NOW!
Oh…wait.
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by RoyalsRetro on Mar 13, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not talking about "afford" in financial terms really, although that might also be true
All I’m saying is that we’re carrying this specialty guy to do one single thing. I just think we can find someone that can do that task good enough but that also brings additional talent. Another versatile MR type guy will give us more value throughout a year than Gobble. He could fill in where we get injuries, can stay in games longer instead of for one guy, etc. I wasn’t and am not necessarily arguing FOR Peralta as replacement of Gobble. I’ve seen Peralta be really good and really bad.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
Sign Pedro Martinez Now!!!!
id love to have Pedro as the 5th starter.. wont be that expensive and I think he will have a much better year than HoRam and Banny and anyone else that would be a contender for the number 5 slot. (except maybe Hochevar)
Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.
He wants $5 million plus $5 million in incentives
I think if we offer $3 million as a base we can be in the ballpark. But I don’t know if we have that kind of money to spend, and I think DM likes the pitchers he has to be honest.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 12, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
but he's a winner, he knows how to win
Also, he’s a doubles hitter, since he hit as many doubles in 2008 as Willie Bloomquist did, and in far fewer PAs… CLEANUP HITTER~!
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 12, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Thats just embarrasing
How can Willie look in the mirror in the morning knowing that? It’s like TPJ being outhit by half of NL pitching last year, or whatever the stat was.
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by kcbottom9th on Mar 12, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm less concerned about Willie's conscience on this matter
than Dayton Moore’s.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 12, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Ranked Projected 2009 FIPS, Bullpen guys mentioned in this post
average of CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA
1. Joakim Soria 3.06
2. Juan Cruz 3.62
3. John Bale 3.87 (Should have docked him a point for saying something stupid about A-Rod, huh? Man, those Yankees fans are fickle…)
4. Jimmy Gobble 4.38
5. Joel Peralta 4.44
6. Robinson Tejeda 4.48
7. Kyle Farnsworth 4.53
8. Doug Waechter 4.63
9. Yabuta 4.64
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Forgot Mahay
4.28
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 12, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Tejeda's projection is dragged down by ineffectiveness as a starter in previous years
The move to the pen saw his swinging strike rate and his strikeout rate jump considerably, and helps cancel out his wildness. Even though he is due for significant regression on balls in play (.217 BABIP versus 19.8% LD%), he might be the third best arm in the pen.
Gobble’s projection, on the other hand, is boosted by the fact that he primarily faces lefties. As we saw last year, Gobble is a disaster outside of a strict LOOGY role.
I agree with both analyses
I was just “delivering the goods,” so to speak. I didn’t want to muss it up with my own adjustments. Sort of like how I left Ho-Ram as a league-average starter on my other post…
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 12, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Just adding to, not disagreeing with, what you did
As for Ho-Ram, has there ever been a league average starter with a K/9 under 3.5 and a GB% under 55% (the Aaron Cook exception)?
heh
I thought Jamie Moyer might have been close…. but, wow, he’s been even better than I thought.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 12, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe Carlos Silva back in the day
but only because he kept his BB/9 rate around 1.5 and his GB% around 50%.
cl: Soria
su: Cruz, Mahay
mr: Farnsy, Bale, Waechter/Peralta (one)
long: Tejeda
Waechter or Peralta for ROOGY, they are pretty similar. Bale is tough on lefties, but can get righties out reasonably well also. Tejeda for the long man spot, they’re stretching him out this spring for that spot (and possible spot starter).
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
I agree with your analysis
Gobble and Waechter may be out. However, I don’t think Joel is a Dayton guy, and I think despite his impressive spring, he’ll find himself placed on waivers at the end of camp.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
You may be right, but Moore did tender him
He could have non-tendered Peralta and been free of him and not owe him a penny. Instead he chose to bring him back, and gave him more money than Waechter.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 12, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
He did with German too though
He doesn’t seem too bothered about cutting arb contract guys, and that is probably a good thing.
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
I am demonstrating my maturity
by not making any jokes about Minda packing for Jo-El one final time.
DOH!!
The General Theory of Royaltivity
I agree
Moore is willing to cut guys who are owed more than league minimum. I’m just pointing out that Moore has shown as much commitment to Peralta as he has to someone like Waecther. By his actions, DM has shown that they are both “Dayton guys” and also both eminently cuttable.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 12, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Peralta may actually be cheaper to cut
due to the non-guaranteed contract.
Waechter’s 640k is guaranteed since he was a free agent, isn’t it?
I believe the deadline has passed on Peralta's non-guaranteed contract
You can get away with paying only 1/6th of an arbitration player’s contract if you cut him a certain number of days before opening day (I think it is 30 or 45 days from opening day). I think the clock has run on that.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 13, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok, I did a little research
This is from the collective bargaining agreement:
A Player whose Contract is terminated by a Club under paragraph 7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player’s Contract for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability shall be entitled to receive termination pay from the Club in an amount equal to thirty (30) days’ payment at the rate stipulated in paragraph 2 of his Contract, if the termination occurs during spring training but on or before the 16th day prior to the start of the championship season. If the termination occurs during spring training, but subsequent to the 16th day prior to the start of the championship season, the Player’s termination pay shall be in an amount equal to forty-five (45) days’ payment at the rate stipulated in paragraph 2 of his Contract.
Opening day is April 6. So if Peralta is cut on or before April 21, then he’s due only $107K (1/6th of his $640K salary). If he’s cut during spring training but after April 21, then he’s due $160K. So yes cutting Peralta would save about $500K.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 13, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
We've all been discussing the What if...?
But, what do we really think the odds of this What if actually happening?
5?
50?
99.99999%?
The General Theory of Royaltivity
I don't mean to take the "shine" off of Peralta's performance, but...
I feel compelled to name these 8 guys that Joel struck out. I’ll also list the highest level that the player played in last year (according to the quick research that I did – I’m sure someone will let me know if I missed something).
Trevor Crowe – Class AA
Carlos Rivero – Class A
Casey Benjamin – Class AAA
Jose Vallejo – Class AA
Engel Beltre – Class A
Bryan LeHair – 136AB in 45 ML games (40 Ks!) – rest of year in Class AAA
Oswaldo Navarro – Class AAA (did have 3 ML ABs in 2006)
Carlos Triunfel – Class A (Advanced!)
His other K this spring was Hank Blalock (in the 2nd game of ST after giving up a bomb to Josh Hamilton).
Anyway, Peralta SHOULD be dominating these guys, so I’m not sure that striking them out really tells us that much.
Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals! Except the weasel! - Homer Simpson
by aHorseWithNoName on Mar 12, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The real case for Peralta is how he's performed over the past three seasons
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 12, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
My only point was that his ST performance hasn’t really been all that “shiny” when given the proper context (i.e. level of competition that he was striking out).
Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals! Except the weasel! - Homer Simpson
by aHorseWithNoName on Mar 12, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Fool's Gold in Spring Training
Would we be having this conversation if it were Duckworth that was striking out the minor leaguers? Peralta’s track record makes him the odd man out. He’s the last man in an average bullpen. The possibility of cutting him loose or having to make a deal for him is a testament to KC’s bullpen. It should be the best in the division.
IMHO – Shop Bale and Gobble to see who has the most value. I’d rather see Gobble gone than Bale. Tejeda and Waechter should fill the last spots. Bale as the LH assuming he is healthy. Gobble and Peralta are trade bait or cut loose if no takers.
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