Your Mike Aviles Mega-Projection
by royalsreview on Mar 16, 2009 12:37 AM EDT
in News
50 comments
So let's go:
| BA | OBP | SLG | HR | |
| Bill James | .288 | .322 | .443 | 14 |
| CHONE | .280 | .317 | .425 | 11 |
| Marcel | .308 | .351 | .462 | 10 |
| Oliver | .280 | .312 | .436 | 16 |
| ZiPS | .289 | .319 | .433 | 14 |
| PECOTA | .268 | .309 | .409 | 13 |
Since we're dealing with rate stats here (I threw in homers just for fun) I don't have a huge problem with averaging these numbers.
And now, the mega-projection: .286/.322/.435, down from .325/.354/.480 last season. The average actually looks like a good representation of the numbers: you've got the extremely negative PECOTA and extremely positive Marcel projections counter-balancing each other, then four others that are all around the average. I guess technically the average is always reflective, but in this case, you can see it very easily.
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loved him as a brewer
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on Mar 15, 2009 12:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
just use CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA
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by devil_fingers on Mar 15, 2009 12:53 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
“James” projections suck. Marcels is a great baseline, but it’s not really a separate “system.” Oliver’s OK, but right now it’s sort of an evolutionary Marcels (although I tihnk it’s cool that Cartwright is doing it.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 15, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bill James always struck me as too optimistic
And ZIPS always strikes me as too pessimistic.
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by RoyalsRetro on Mar 15, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait until you doJacobs...
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by devil_fingers on Mar 15, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand
Why is everyone so down on this guy? He is now entering his prime years, and the numbers should go up, not down. He did it last year, so why not this year?
I just don’t understand the negativity.
by david.lowe on Mar 15, 2009 2:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Aberrant spike in performance
When compared to the rest of his minor league record
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by RoyalsRetro on Mar 15, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate you, Will.
You just HAD to bring up Junior Spivey. I’m starting to think you’re secretly Steven Goldman’s Yankee-worshipping love child, sent here to torment me personally.
I don’t know how NYR is wrapped up in your evil conspiracy, but I have plenty of free time to investigate.
This space for rent.
by jonfmorse on Mar 15, 2009 3:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
aviles
I think Aviles will break both legs in a freak jet-ski accident.
by Ross_perot's_penis_and_testicles on Mar 15, 2009 6:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Seems realistic to me
But maybe Aviles will surprise us all again.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 15, 2009 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Expecting some regression is not negativity.
This projection is conservative, and there is nothing wrong with that. Nor is it overly pessimistic: a 286/322/435 line would rank Aviles somewhere between Michael Young and Jhonny Peralta as a hitter; and that would be pretty good for a second-year SS not named Hanley Ramirez.
I want to know why Marcel is so out of step with the other projections in OBP. For some reason Marcel projects that his walk rate will increase from 4.1% to 5.8. Where is that coming from? His best walk rate in the minors was 5.6, and that was in 2006. Marcel also has his BABIP at .345. Now that is optimisim, considering it would be higher than all but 14 batters from last season.
by ayeyiyiyi on Mar 15, 2009 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Marcel is just a simple regression model
It basically takes the most recent seasons (I think the last 3) and weights them on a sliding scale (greater weight for the most recent seasons). It is the kind of baseline that the best projection system use. But Marcel just stops at that baseline. Even its creator recognizes that it is an ultra-simple system which isn’t that great. It shouldn’t be seen as being anywhere near the value or accuracy of PECOTA, ZiPS or CHONE.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 15, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marcels is a "beat this" system
more like: “if you can’t beat this, your system fails on a basic level”
It’s a very handy tool — it’s a raw, 5-4-3 baseline (5-3-2 for pitchers) that just regresses to the mean and adds slight age adjustments. It doesn’t use anything other than MLB data
In Aviles’ case, you only have one year of data, so there is a fair bit of regression to the mean (and if you get the Marcels file, this reflected in the low reliability score given for him). For most younger players, since there isn’t much taken into account and the aging curve is very slight and undifferentiated, this can make Marcels look “too negative,” cf. Gordon, Butler’s projectoins. For Aviles, since he came on like gangbusters, it looks positive.
The thing with his walk rate, then, makes sense — it was below league average, and all the regression the mean brought it a bit higher up.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 15, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For Reference
AL SS’s as a group hit .266/.319/.375 last year. So if Aviles can hit this projection, he is doing very well indeed.
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
by kcbottom9th on Mar 15, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lets see, this from WARDEN Projections,
.407/.511/.598
I just got back from your mom's basement.
by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
is that pre- or post-Seitzer effect?
by DarthYoshi on Mar 15, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
crap,
that’s pre-Seitzer. I need to update my numbers.
I just got back from your mom's basement.
by Warden11 on Mar 15, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i was going to say...
that is awfully low for a post-Seitzer projection. +100 points in each category would be more like it.
by DarthYoshi on Mar 15, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chipper 2008
How many of these stupid projections said Chipper Jones would bat .370 in 2008? ZERO, and yet he did.
So, what if Aviles begins the first month of the season batting .400? Then averages out to around .330 for the rest of the year? The guy is RIGHT NOW in his prime, so I expect his numbers to increase, not decrease.
You see, when you enter your prime years (26 – 32), your numbers get better and better each year, then plateau and then move down as you exit your prime. So, we should expect his numbers to improve.
Who cares what his minor league numbers were? Those were during years not in his prime, when he was still learning.
by david.lowe on Mar 15, 2009 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A player's numbers get better and better during their prime years?
Is that why they are called a player’s “prime” years? Please, tell us more things we don’t know!
[/end snark]
Seriously, though, everybody and their mother expects Aviles to regress. Unlike Chipper (who has some semblance of plate discipline), Aviles needed a very high batting average to maintain that line and would need that same average to continue such a line, but the book on him has been circulated to every pitcher in the AL Central by now, I am sure. And numbers “getting better and better” during prime years hardly works for everyone—weird things happen, people get injured. Baseball is a game with a lot of potential variables.
PS: Are you really saying that minor league numbers don’t matter because “those were during years not in his prime?” Really?
I feel like Seth Myers on Weekend Update…
by DarthYoshi on Mar 15, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's true!
I will never forgive DM for not giving Tyler Lumsden his chance in KC. Who cares about his minor numbers? The kid could pitch and was entering his prime!
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
by kcbottom9th on Mar 15, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Houston claimed him off waivers
We got Jordon Parraz for him. Steal of the century.
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
by kcbottom9th on Mar 15, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
most peaks only happen due to steroids
I mean, look at arod
by royalsreview on Mar 15, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Honus Wagner
that guy was juiced the the gills, I hear.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 15, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a national disgrace
In retrospect the fact that he grew actual gills should have been a tipoff, but we were all too bleary-eyed watching a shortstop hit 5, 6, even 10 home runs per year to let our cynicism loose. We were in love with the Flying Dutchman and we let ourselves be fooled. After Ed Delahanty we should have known better than to be so trusting. But we just couldn’t help ourselves.
Really though, the spectacle of Nap LaJoie telling congress that he wasn’t there to talk about the past, that might have been the tipping point where we lost our national innocence.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on Mar 16, 2009 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they only didn't say anything because those guys were white
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by devil_fingers on Mar 16, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Players just keep getting better after 26-27, darn tootin'
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by devil_fingers on Mar 15, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aviles > Honus Wagner
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by devil_fingers on Mar 15, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So a sophomore slump never happens?
I guess I missed that on Angel Berroa.
I hope to god Aviles improves. We would have one of the best shortstops in baseball. I would be happy even if he regressed slightly.
by AxDxMx on Mar 16, 2009 4:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
better
if he improves, he’ll be one of the best players in baseball
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by devil_fingers on Mar 16, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorta surprised there have been as many negative votes as there are
the 6% spivey voters are KILLING THIS SITE
by royalsreview on Mar 15, 2009 5:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have to fess up here
I clicked that option by accident. I meant to click the middle one.
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
by kcbottom9th on Mar 15, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want a typed letter of apology
to Aviles and to this community
by royalsreview on Mar 15, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do we know
Its not really Junior Spivey voting for himself?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 16, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What Happened To
Jr., anyway? His career ended precipitously at age 30, and he finished with a career .270/.354/.436. I realize he was falling off badly, but on the whole he was at least as good as some others who hung around another 5 years.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/spiveju01.shtml
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 16, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ROIDS!!!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 16, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he was miserable for two solid mior league seasons in 06 and 07
it was over
by royalsreview on Mar 16, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.288, .325, .456
and I am happy with that . (other than my usual wish for the mythical Royals That Walk)
by KHAZAD on Mar 16, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Seitzer will force them to walk...
or do pushups at the plate every time they swing and miss on ball 1. It’s a new era…
by Big Guy on Mar 16, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it just a coincedence
That Junior Spivey signed with the Mets today?
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by RoyalsRetro on Mar 16, 2009 5:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
weird
was he even playing in 2008?
by royalsreview on Mar 16, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB teams stealing ideas from blogs again
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 16, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Take Credit
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 16, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of shortstop projections, found an interesting old Rany quote on Berroa
6/3/04: “Hitting .330 can be a fluke; knocking 17 homers and 52 extra-base hits is an ability. If nothing else, Berroa has above-average pop for a shortstop; that and his above-average defensive range almost guarantee that he’ll always have some value.”
Alas, the fickle nature of the almost guarantee. Anyway, I found this among some old Rob & Rany printouts while sorting through tax receipts; clearly, that sorting was long overdue.
by andrewmiller on Mar 16, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nothing is ever certain
Rany should know that.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 16, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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