Community "Heart & Gut" Projection - Catchers (Olivo, Buck, Pena, House)

by NYRoyal on Mar 22, 2009 5:47 PM EDT Comment 16 comments

A surprisingly long time ago, I posted the second installment of the "Heart & Gut" projection series, which dealt with the shortstops and second basemen. The results are as follows:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Mike Aviles	551	.288	.328	.447	13	65	10	4
Alberto Callaspo	383	.302	.358	.381	2	40	4	2
Willie Bloomquist	294	.264	.322	.310	1	21	14	5
Tony Pena, Jr.	98	.236	.267	.306	1	12	3	1

As with Gload, about half of the respondents gave no projections for Pena, as they are sanguine about him being cut before opening day.

Now it is time to get back to business. Below you'll find the top four catchers on the Royals depth chart, each of which might get some playing time with the Royals in 2009.

Miguel Olivo

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2002	CWS	6	19	2	4	1	0	1	5	2	5	0	0	.211	.286	.421	.707
2003	CWS	114	317	37	75	19	1	6	27	19	80	6	4	.237	.287	.360	.646
2004	CWS	46	141	21	38	7	2	7	26	10	29	5	4	.270	.316	.496	.812
2004	SEA	50	160	25	32	8	2	6	14	10	55	2	2	.200	.260	.388	.648
2005	SEA	54	152	14	23	4	0	5	18	4	49	1	1	.151	.172	.276	.448
2005	SD	37	115	16	35	7	1	4	16	4	31	6	1	.304	.341	.487	.828
2006	FLA	127	430	52	113	22	3	16	58	9	103	2	3	.263	.287	.440	.727
2007	FLA	122	452	43	107	20	4	16	60	14	123	3	2	.237	.262	.405	.667
2008	KC	84	306	29	78	22	0	12	41	7	82	7	0	.255	.278	.444	.722
Career		640	2092	239	505	110	13	73	265	79	557	32	17	.241	.275	.411	.686

John Buck

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	KC	71	238	36	56	9	0	12	30	15	79	1	1	.235	.280	.424	.704
2005	KC	118	401	40	97	21	1	12	47	23	94	2	2	.242	.287	.389	.676
2006	KC	114	371	37	91	21	1	11	50	26	84	0	2	.245	.306	.396	.702
2007	KC	113	347	41	77	18	0	18	48	36	92	0	1	.222	.308	.429	.738
2008	KC	109	370	48	83	23	1	9	48	38	96	0	3	.224	.304	.365	.669
Career		525	1727	202	404	92	3	62	223	138	445	3	9	.234	.298	.398	.697

Brayan Pena

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	ATL	18	39	2	7	2	0	0	4	1	7	0	0	.179	.200	.231	.431
2006	ATL	23	41	9	11	2	0	1	5	2	5	0	0	.268	.302	.390	.693
2007	ATL	16	33	2	7	0	0	1	3	0	3	0	1	.212	.212	.303	.515
2008	ATL	14	14	3	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.286	.333	.357	.690
Career		71	127	16	29	5	0	2	12	4	17	0	1	.228	.252	.315	.567

J.R. House

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	PIT	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
2004	PIT	5	9	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.111	.111	.222	.333
2006	HOU	4	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
2007	BAL	19	38	5	8	2	0	3	3	1	11	0	0	.211	.268	.500	.768
2008	HOU	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Career		32	60	6	10	3	0	3	4	1	16	0	0	.167	.206	.367	.573

(If you click on the player's name, it will take you to his Fangraphs.com page which includes, among other things, his CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel and Bill James projections)

For each player, please predict the following stats:

AVG

OBP

SLG

RBI

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Comments

I'll start

Olivo
AB 350
AVG .245
OBP .275
SLG .410
HR 12
RBI 40
SB 5
CS 3

Buck
AB 340
AVG .235
OBP .310
SLG .400
HR 11
RBI 40
SB 1
CS 1

B. Pena
AB 30
AVG .270
OBP .315
SLG .380
HR 0
RBI 3
SB 0
CS 0

House
AB 10
AVG .270
OBP .320
SLG .410
HR 0
RBI 1
SB 0
CS 0

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 19, 2009 6:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know that it is only Spring Training, but

The two games I watched down here, Buck was really hitting the ball hard, but not swinging so hard that his helmet spun off (a la TPJ). He appears to be playing within himself, but very hard. I am much more optimistic right now – it is March.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Mar 19, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

B. Pean gets released and picked up elsewhere

Olivo
PA 331
AB 318
AVG .265
OBP .290
SLG .456
HR 12
2b 21
3b 2
BB 12

Buck
PA 300
AB 273
AVG .243
OBP .303
SLG .395
HR 8
2b 19
3b 0
Bb 25

House or some fillin
AB 4
PA 4
H 1
.250/.250/.250

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Mar 19, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my predictions...

Olivo:
AB 375
AVG .249
OBP .278
SLG .422
HR 14
RBI 40
SB 5
CS 2

Buck:
AB 305
AVG .238
OBP .308
SLG .400
HR 10
RBI 40
SB 1
CS 1

B. Pena gets placed on waivers, and House spends the year at Omaha.

by DarthYoshi on Mar 19, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Red Sox are still looking for a catcher

Trade Brayan Pena before they have to release him. Get something anything for him

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Mar 19, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

sounds like theyre pretty comfortable with varitek and kottreras....

i highly doubt they’d wait this long to get their backup since the primary qualification for red sox backup catcher is to catch the knuckler

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Mar 19, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope we trade Olivo, and keep a cheap Pena as the backup to Buck

Buck

AB 370
AVG .260
OBP .330
SLG .420
HR 15
RBI 50
SB 0
CS 0

Olivo

AB 300
AVG .250
OBP .270
SLG .440
HR 12
RBI 40
SB 4
CS 2

Pena and House don’t merit projections as they won’t play for the Royals this year. I mean if Pena comes up, we have the same problem with optioning him back to the minors don’t we? We’ll have to pass him through waivers. I don’t know House’s situation, but he’s not a defensive catcher. If Pena is here and it’s not September then we have made a move on Buck or Olivo. And personally, I think Buck has the better chance of a breakout since he’s got plate discipline and Seitzer is helping him improve. Ideally, I would like to start the season with Buck and Pena as the catchers. That would save some more money.

by AxDxMx on Mar 19, 2009 7:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I never realized how walk-averse Olivo is

As for projections, I’ll just say I would expect JR House to outhit all three players mentioned. He won’t get many (any?) at bats this season, though.

by marbotty on Mar 20, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope we trade Buck and Pena and Olivo split time behind the plate..

But that won’t happen.

Olivo
AB 380.
AVG .250
OBP .290
SLUG .450
HR 13
RBI 53
SB 9
CS 5

Buck
AB 310
AVG .240
OBP .310
SLUG .400
HR 9
RBI 43
SB 0
CS 1

Pena won’t make the opening day roster and won’t clear waivers. I think he’ll get a backup job with some other club.
AB 150
AVG .270
OBP .330
SLUG .380
HR 2
RBI 18
SB 2
CS 3

House won’t make a big league club all year

by SK on Mar 21, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Once again

My “heart” is optimistic, my “gut” is… not. It’s easier for me to just give all these over 600 PAs… for catchers, I’ll do 500 PAs. Just easier for distribution. I don’t like to guess at playing time or RBI.

John “I Rule” Buck

Heart: The next Kelly Shoppach
Gut: Mormon Miguel Olivo

AB 453
AVG .243
OBP .314
SLG .424
HR 18
SB 2
CS 1

Miguel Olivo

Heart: Repeats 2008
Gut: This is Miguel Olivo we’re talking about

AB 488
AVG .256
OBP .274
SLG .404
HR 14
SB 6
CS 3

Brayan Pena

Heart: Poor Man’s Josh Bard
Gut: JAFB

AB 472
AVG .284
OBP .324
SLG .405
HR 10
SB 7
CS 3

J. R. House

Heart: A Young Matt LeCroy!
Gut: The Current Matt LeCroy

AB 465
AVG .288
OBP .338
SLG .445
HR 15
SB 3
CS 2