Community "Heart & Gut" Projection - Catchers (Olivo, Buck, Pena, House)
by NYRoyal on Mar 22, 2009 5:47 PM EDT
16 comments
A surprisingly long time ago, I posted the second installment of the "Heart & Gut" projection series, which dealt with the shortstops and second basemen. The results are as follows:
| Player | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
| Mike Aviles | 551 | .288 | .328 | .447 | 13 | 65 | 10 | 4 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 383 | .302 | .358 | .381 | 2 | 40 | 4 | 2 |
| Willie Bloomquist | 294 | .264 | .322 | .310 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 5 |
| Tony Pena, Jr. | 98 | .236 | .267 | .306 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 1 |
As with Gload, about half of the respondents gave no projections for Pena, as they are sanguine about him being cut before opening day.
Now it is time to get back to business. Below you'll find the top four catchers on the Royals depth chart, each of which might get some playing time with the Royals in 2009.
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2002 | CWS | 6 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .211 | .286 | .421 | .707 | |
| 2003 | CWS | 114 | 317 | 37 | 75 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 19 | 80 | 6 | 4 | .237 | .287 | .360 | .646 | |
| 2004 | CWS | 46 | 141 | 21 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4 | .270 | .316 | .496 | .812 | |
| 2004 | SEA | 50 | 160 | 25 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 55 | 2 | 2 | .200 | .260 | .388 | .648 | |
| 2005 | SEA | 54 | 152 | 14 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 1 | .151 | .172 | .276 | .448 | |
| 2005 | SD | 37 | 115 | 16 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 1 | .304 | .341 | .487 | .828 | |
| 2006 | FLA | 127 | 430 | 52 | 113 | 22 | 3 | 16 | 58 | 9 | 103 | 2 | 3 | .263 | .287 | .440 | .727 | |
| 2007 | FLA | 122 | 452 | 43 | 107 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 60 | 14 | 123 | 3 | 2 | .237 | .262 | .405 | .667 | |
| 2008 | KC | 84 | 306 | 29 | 78 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 41 | 7 | 82 | 7 | 0 | .255 | .278 | .444 | .722 | |
| Career | 640 | 2092 | 239 | 505 | 110 | 13 | 73 | 265 | 79 | 557 | 32 | 17 | .241 | .275 | .411 | .686 |
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2004 | KC | 71 | 238 | 36 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 15 | 79 | 1 | 1 | .235 | .280 | .424 | .704 | |
| 2005 | KC | 118 | 401 | 40 | 97 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 23 | 94 | 2 | 2 | .242 | .287 | .389 | .676 | |
| 2006 | KC | 114 | 371 | 37 | 91 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 50 | 26 | 84 | 0 | 2 | .245 | .306 | .396 | .702 | |
| 2007 | KC | 113 | 347 | 41 | 77 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 48 | 36 | 92 | 0 | 1 | .222 | .308 | .429 | .738 | |
| 2008 | KC | 109 | 370 | 48 | 83 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 48 | 38 | 96 | 0 | 3 | .224 | .304 | .365 | .669 | |
| Career | 525 | 1727 | 202 | 404 | 92 | 3 | 62 | 223 | 138 | 445 | 3 | 9 | .234 | .298 | .398 | .697 |
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2005 | ATL | 18 | 39 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .179 | .200 | .231 | .431 | |
| 2006 | ATL | 23 | 41 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .268 | .302 | .390 | .693 | |
| 2007 | ATL | 16 | 33 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .212 | .212 | .303 | .515 | |
| 2008 | ATL | 14 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .357 | .690 | |
| Career | 71 | 127 | 16 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 1 | .228 | .252 | .315 | .567 |
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2003 | PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | |
| 2004 | PIT | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .111 | .111 | .222 | .333 | |
| 2006 | HOU | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| 2007 | BAL | 19 | 38 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .211 | .268 | .500 | .768 | |
| 2008 | HOU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| Career | 32 | 60 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .206 | .367 | .573 |
(If you click on the player's name, it will take you to his Fangraphs.com page which includes, among other things, his CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel and Bill James projections)
For each player, please predict the following stats:
AB
AVG
OBP
SLG
HR
RBI
SB
CS
1 recs |
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I'll start
Olivo
AB 350
AVG .245
OBP .275
SLG .410
HR 12
RBI 40
SB 5
CS 3
Buck
AB 340
AVG .235
OBP .310
SLG .400
HR 11
RBI 40
SB 1
CS 1
B. Pena
AB 30
AVG .270
OBP .315
SLG .380
HR 0
RBI 3
SB 0
CS 0
House
AB 10
AVG .270
OBP .320
SLG .410
HR 0
RBI 1
SB 0
CS 0
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 19, 2009 6:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know that it is only Spring Training, but
The two games I watched down here, Buck was really hitting the ball hard, but not swinging so hard that his helmet spun off (a la TPJ). He appears to be playing within himself, but very hard. I am much more optimistic right now – it is March.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on Mar 19, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
B. Pean gets released and picked up elsewhere
Olivo
PA 331
AB 318
AVG .265
OBP .290
SLG .456
HR 12
2b 21
3b 2
BB 12
Buck
PA 300
AB 273
AVG .243
OBP .303
SLG .395
HR 8
2b 19
3b 0
Bb 25
House or some fillin
AB 4
PA 4
H 1
.250/.250/.250
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Mar 19, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
my predictions...
Olivo:
AB 375
AVG .249
OBP .278
SLG .422
HR 14
RBI 40
SB 5
CS 2
Buck:
AB 305
AVG .238
OBP .308
SLG .400
HR 10
RBI 40
SB 1
CS 1
B. Pena gets placed on waivers, and House spends the year at Omaha.
by DarthYoshi on Mar 19, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Red Sox are still looking for a catcher
Trade Brayan Pena before they have to release him. Get something anything for him
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Mar 19, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
sounds like theyre pretty comfortable with varitek and kottreras....
i highly doubt they’d wait this long to get their backup since the primary qualification for red sox backup catcher is to catch the knuckler
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Mar 19, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope we trade Olivo, and keep a cheap Pena as the backup to Buck
Buck
AB 370
AVG .260
OBP .330
SLG .420
HR 15
RBI 50
SB 0
CS 0
Olivo
AB 300
AVG .250
OBP .270
SLG .440
HR 12
RBI 40
SB 4
CS 2
Pena and House don’t merit projections as they won’t play for the Royals this year. I mean if Pena comes up, we have the same problem with optioning him back to the minors don’t we? We’ll have to pass him through waivers. I don’t know House’s situation, but he’s not a defensive catcher. If Pena is here and it’s not September then we have made a move on Buck or Olivo. And personally, I think Buck has the better chance of a breakout since he’s got plate discipline and Seitzer is helping him improve. Ideally, I would like to start the season with Buck and Pena as the catchers. That would save some more money.
by AxDxMx on Mar 19, 2009 7:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I never realized how walk-averse Olivo is
As for projections, I’ll just say I would expect JR House to outhit all three players mentioned. He won’t get many (any?) at bats this season, though.
by marbotty on Mar 20, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope we trade Buck and Pena and Olivo split time behind the plate..
But that won’t happen.
Olivo
AB 380.
AVG .250
OBP .290
SLUG .450
HR 13
RBI 53
SB 9
CS 5
Buck
AB 310
AVG .240
OBP .310
SLUG .400
HR 9
RBI 43
SB 0
CS 1
Pena won’t make the opening day roster and won’t clear waivers. I think he’ll get a backup job with some other club.
AB 150
AVG .270
OBP .330
SLUG .380
HR 2
RBI 18
SB 2
CS 3
House won’t make a big league club all year
by SK on Mar 21, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Once again
My “heart” is optimistic, my “gut” is… not. It’s easier for me to just give all these over 600 PAs… for catchers, I’ll do 500 PAs. Just easier for distribution. I don’t like to guess at playing time or RBI.
John “I Rule” Buck
Heart: The next Kelly Shoppach
Gut: Mormon Miguel Olivo
AB 453
AVG .243
OBP .314
SLG .424
HR 18
SB 2
CS 1
Miguel Olivo
Heart: Repeats 2008
Gut: This is Miguel Olivo we’re talking about
AB 488
AVG .256
OBP .274
SLG .404
HR 14
SB 6
CS 3
Brayan Pena
Heart: Poor Man’s Josh Bard
Gut: JAFB
AB 472
AVG .284
OBP .324
SLG .405
HR 10
SB 7
CS 3
J. R. House
Heart: A Young Matt LeCroy!
Gut: The Current Matt LeCroy
AB 465
AVG .288
OBP .338
SLG .445
HR 15
SB 3
CS 2
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Mar 21, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Only this group could lead to AJ Pierzynski envy
Olivo
400 PA
391 AB
9 BB
109 Ks
13 HR
45 RBI
5 SB
1 CS
238/260/408
Buck
250 PA
227 AB
23 BB
59 K
8 HR
28 RBI
0 SB
0 CS
242/312/392
Pena
50 PA
47 AB
3 BB
7 K
1 HR
5 RBI
0 SB
0 CS
255/300/345
by Gopherballs on Mar 22, 2009 12:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You're going to be sorry you wrote that when Buck hits 30 jacks for the Red Sox
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Mar 23, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buck
AB 480
AVG .255
OBP .322
SLG .431
HR 18
SB 0
CS 3
Miguel Olivo
AB 433
AVG .228
OBP .267
SLG .389
HR 9
SB 6
CS 5
Brayan Pena
AB 57
AVG .193
OBP .215
SLG .233
HR 0
SB 0
CS 0
J. R. House
AB 17
AVG .294
OBP .294
SLG .294
HR 0
SB 0
CS 0
That's why we play the season on paper.
by 306008 on Mar 23, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Posting, then going back to see what everyone else put...
Olivo
AB 350
AVG .231
OBP .262
SLG .404
HR 11
RBI 42
SB 7
CS 3
Buck
AB 312
AVG .242
OBP .322
SLG .412
HR 13
RBI 51
SB 1
CS 2
B. Pena
AB 85
AVG .297
OBP .338
SLG .392
HR 1
RBI 5
SB 3
CS 1
House
AB 6
AVG .166
OBP .226
SLG .200
HR 0
RBI 0
SB 0
CS 0
by Top Ramen on Mar 23, 2009 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Somewhat surprised by the numbers
The majority lean towards Buck outperforming Olivo.
Normally you’d expect fan “gut” projections to be far beyond reason — based on the responses so far, I’m not sure that’s going to be the case here
by Top Ramen on Mar 23, 2009 11:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It appears that the "gut" of most respondents adheres fairly closely to the "head" and not far from their projections
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 24, 2009 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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