Tony Pena Jr.'s time as a big league shortstop over, at least for now.

Tony Pena Jr.'s time as a big league shortstop over, at least for now.

Sam Mellinger is speculating, but it appears that he feels pretty certain.

about 3 years ago Scott McKinney 45 comments 0 recs |

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Well that settles it

TPJ makes the roster, if Mellinger says otherwise.

Cf. “Mellinger says Guileln signing is ‘great’.”;

Mellinger: “BABIP is useless”

Mellinger: “Bloomquist signing not that bad, Royals have to overpay for replacement level players.”

Mellinger: “Overall, Moore’s FA signings have been pretty good.”

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 19, 2009 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe he's better at predictions than analysis

Hope so.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Mar 19, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow

You guys really loathe his analysis to this degree? Why?

Get treated. Royally.

by Royals Nation on Mar 20, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions

I shouldn't give him a hard time

at least he’s trying, unlike most of his colleagues and all the Moore asskissers out there.

But some of the stuff is pretty embarrassing.

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Which stuff, specifically, is embarrassing? As for Moore asskissers, are you referring to Dutton/Posnanski/et al? Or Kaegel….?

Get treated. Royally.

by Royals Nation on Mar 20, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think Poz can accurately be termed as a Moore asskisser

…and Dutton is a beat writer, he doesn’t get much latitude in commentary.

I think Mellinger writes about some interesting stuff, but he has this ‘aw shucks’ quality that is hard to get past.

by DarthYoshi on Mar 20, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions

OK

Admittedly, I haven’t read Ball Star on a consistent basis, lately.

Get treated. Royally.

by Royals Nation on Mar 20, 2009 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed on the "aw shucks" nature of his writing

You can’t offer substantive, authoritative analysis with that kind of attitude permeating your writing. Pretty much every post I’ve ever read from him has always been phrased in that sort of, “well, this is how I think I see it…I guess, but then again, I’m not really sure that I understand this concept completely…so, take it with a grain of salt, if you want.”

If you’re going to write analysis pieces, you need to state your opinion clearly and forcefully, and hopefully have some sort of evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) to back it up. Mamby-pambying around a topic and just throwing out an opinion because you’re a reporter and you’re supposed to have inside knowledge and opinion still doesn’t work. I’ve seen plenty of analysis pieces on this site and others that were much more well-crafted.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 20, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I think that that is part of his blog concept persona

which is understandable, since in a hard news story you can’t be like that

by Freneau on Mar 20, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand the difference between...

a hard news, “pure reporting” article, a more touchy-feely “human interest” piece, and a blog. I guess I just expect more from an official media/newspaper blog. The nature of his profession and his access to inside info through the clubhouse, front office, anonymous sources, etc. provides him with something extra that random bloggers don’t have. But it seems to me that guys like Rany and the consistent contributors here churn out better pieces most of the time.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 20, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

(anit-mellinger)

most sports writers try to sound conversational, but when i read him, it feels like i’m having a conversation with a frat boy.

by 9il on Mar 20, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I am still astounded

By his defense of not going after Orlando Hudson because we need to keep Buck lest we be thin at the backup catcher position.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 21, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Dayton Moore stresses organizational depth!!!111

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 21, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Good news, everyone!

Projected 2009 wOBA:

Tony Pena, Jr.:

CHONE: .266
ZiPS: .250

Luis Hernandez:

CHONE: .263
ZiPS: .246

No, I did not make those numbers up.

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions

Don't forget PECOTA!

TPJ: .200

Luis: .186

I shit you not

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions

that's EqA

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions

The Braves were quite proficient at developing players. Not understanding this joke (although not necessarily disagreeing with it….I’m just confused). Unless it’s a mockery of Moore; that he doesn’t understand or is fully implementing the “Braves way”, etc. etc.

Get treated. Royally.

by Royals Nation on Mar 20, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Luis Hernandez is a former Brave

whom Mellinger is saying is a guy who is likely to “replace” (ahem) TPJ, so we should be relieved…

and every one of of the “big three” say he’s a TPJ level hitter — worse, actually.

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Not disagreeing with you re: Hernandez, but was the Braves logo supposed to accentuate Moore’s supposed infatuation with former Braves players (even mediocre to poor ones)? I’m just not understanding the joke – I’ve seen similar jokes, which is why I’m asking.

It certainly shouldn’t be used to pigeonhole “the Braves way”, which clearly worked – and then A TON – for over a dozen years.

Get treated. Royally.

by Royals Nation on Mar 20, 2009 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions

someday we'll have a nince long argument about how the braves way worked and what it was

but for a huge chunk of it they were basically the red sox in terms of spending level… flip through their rosters from, say, 1998-2005… i see mostly an endless string of FA stopgaps and a few great players they “developed”

and they did it with offense, not pitching, those years… certainly not their own pitching

by Freneau on Mar 20, 2009 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions

They have "developed" an awesome rotation this season

Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens… all Dayton Moore-scouted guys, right?

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions

now now

we need to go back to the moore era, like 2004

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2004.shtml

a homegrown rotation of ~~Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Jaret Wright, Paul Byrd,~~ John Thomson

by Freneau on Mar 20, 2009 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions

true, I was just being hyperbolic with the joke

“hyperbolic” can succeed sanguine.

They do have a good rotation this year, although the defense might frustrate those dudes, and it’s not clear how good Kawakami (sp?) is. Given the rest of the division, though…

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Russ Ortiez with a sweet 1.6 WAR that year

coming off his historic 3.1 WAR peak the year before.

Well, maybe. I’ll have to do a Big Russ Retrospective for Driveline. Could be pretty ~~funny~~ interesting.

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Kyle loves Jurrjens

whom I briefly called “Jar-Jar Jurrjens,” then realized how much that made me sound liek Berman and vomited for two hours straight.

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know

I’m not going to say the Braves are bad, since they do pretty well. I think if the “Braves way” means the way they built t heir great teams in the 1990s.. well, that was a long time ago, and baseball operations are done quite differently now. I heard some teams use computers and everything. If you’ve read my NL East pitching preview at Driveline, you’ll know that the Braves have a good pitching rotation. But none of their top 4 pitchers are Altanta prospects…

I take “developing your own young talent” to be the core of the “Braves way” that’s going to bring “1985 style baseball that you kids just haven’t seen around here” or whatever silly shibboleth they always talk about to KC. And that’s what Royals fans need to hang their hats on, since Moore has basically shown he doesn’t get free agency at all. After Meche, the last two offseasons have been pretty bad. Seriously, when you look at the players and money spent of FA and position player trades, we’re talking Colletti/Sabean levels of awesome. NO, there isn’t quite as much money, and yes, there have been some good deals, but even Sabean and Snakeskin Boots have managed to pull one off every once in a while.

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 20, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Bad FA signings isn't the "Braves way"

That’s just what Moore has done. The “Braves way” involved a lot of good scouting which developed some good players and allowed them to identify some good players to acquire through free agency and trade. This is what helped them to be extremely successful for a long time. The Braves showed what a team can do with good scouting and a nice sized budget. They certainly were and for the most part are very traditional and not progressive. But one can hardly hold up the Braves organization as some paragon of stupidity and failure.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Mar 20, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

My only "counter argument", if you can call it one

My only “counter argument”, if you can call it one, would be that while I’m probably more of a stats-oriented guy, as a general rule I think organizations best benefit themselves by combining both tools and numbers analysis. That said, I’m still open minded enough to substantiate that teams can succeed using primarily tools-based analysis. I think it’s evident. I would wager that teams can succeed using stats-analysis, as well, but the data is far less conclusive, because it’s a relatively new phenomenon.

Get treated. Royally.

by Royals Nation on Mar 20, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I would wager that teams can succeed using stats-analysis, as well, but the data is far less conclusive, because it’s a relatively new phenomenon.

Every team uses some mix of both stats and tools-based analysis. Unfortunately, some only dabble in stats (like the Royals). No team uses statistical analysis only, or even primarily. The most stat-friendly organizations, like the A’s and Red Sox mix statistical analysis with lots of good old fashioned scouting.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Mar 20, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Were we supposed to read that title

…and hear Professor Farnsworth’s- Futurama, not Kyle- voice?

“You’ll be making a delivery to {insert_horrible_planet_here}”

by sterlingice on Mar 20, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

hmmm...

the Braves thing was just a fun add-on. Is anyone else alarmed that Mellinger’s “pick” to replace TPJ looks like he’s every bit as awful?

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 21, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Not alarmed

unless Mellinger has some kind of influence on what DM does. Both of those guys should be in Omaha – at best.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on Mar 21, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I really doubt either will start the season in KC

I think one of them might come up if a middle IFer goes on the DL.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Mar 21, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

That sounds right

Bloomquist is going to make the team for sure and if they proceed with the “3 guy platoon” at 2B they discussed this week, no need to keep TPJ around.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on Mar 21, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, if they really like Bloomquist's defense, I don't see why he can't backup shortstop

And even if they want to give most of the starts at 2B to Bloomquist, why can’t he backup SS too? When Aviles needs a day off, Bloomquist slides over to SS and Callaspo or Teahen plays 2B.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Mar 21, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm no scout

but it seemed like Teahen made the plays OK the last time he was out there at 2B – or at least the tv game. Much improved from his first outing.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on Mar 21, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I think his offense makes up for his defense

But I’d have to see more of him playing there to make a better assessment. But a .340 wOBA from a second baseman is damned good. That can easily carry poor defense, unless he’s really horrendous.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Mar 21, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Certainly

I’m not saying to judge him on that one outing. But, it was certainly good enough to give him another try. We should keep giving him those tries if he is performing “adequately”. While he’s not likely to be the best 2B we’ve ever seen, I don’t think he’ll be “horrendous”.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on Mar 21, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions