Will the Royals Pick Up Coco Crisp's Option in 2010? Should They?
by royalsreview on Mar 2, 2009 2:30 PM EST
in News
111 comments
It's never to early to start thinking about Coco Crisp's team option for 2010. What else are you going to do? Work on learning a new language, spend more time with your family, jog? I'll try not to laugh.
Here are the basics: Coco is set to earn $5.75 million in 2009, after the season, the Royals can either let Coco become a free agent or they can bring him back for one more year at $8 million.
Here's the data on Crisp since 2005:
| Games | BA | OBP | SLG | Defense | |
| 2006 | 105 | .264 | .317 | .385 | dead average |
| 2007 | 145 | .268 | .330 | .382 | really good |
| 2008 | 118 | .283 | .344 | .407 | dead average |
So, let's go...
- Obviously, my entries regarding defense are subjective and imprecise. I have no idea what is going on with Crisp's numbers, but every defensive metric I looked at followed the same pattern: '06 and '08 were fairly "meh" while in '07 he was awesome. So you tell me what it all means. Probably, we're looking at average to good defensive player with a non-asset arm.
- 2010 will be Crisp's age 30 season. Crisp, as Will Carroll put it this week, "there always seems to be something wrong with Crisp, but never enough to keep him out for long." At the moment, he's not a huge injury risk. A solid bet for 140 games, a bad bet for 155.
- Plainly, it will help to see what Crisp does in 2009, but what kind of player does he look like he'll be right now? Crisp cratered badly in 2006, having his worst season (in the context of his career) right after his career-year, as his OPS+ dropped from 117 to 77. Since then, he's made minor steps back, and in 2008 posted an OPS+ of 93. Importantly, the average OPS+ for centerfielders last season was... 99. Crisp is now an average centerfielder offensively, at a position that is also average. Right now, PECOTA projects he'll hit .261/.326/.393, a projection that basically says, in the parlance of our times, he is what he is. (Oh, and this is a sub-optimal leadoff man, but that's a lost cause.) So if he's the same old '07-'08 Crisp in '09, that's probably what he'll be in 2010. I guess there's a real possibility that there's a power spike in there somewhere, since he did slug in the .450 range once, which could happen once or twice again at some point. If you're curious, the current 2009 PECOTA projection of Crisp in 2010 is .260/.323/.375. He is...
- BP's MORP isn't perfect, but according to MORP Crisp will be worth $6.2 M on the market next season (so a slight bargain for the Royals) and a similar $6.6 M in 2010. Then again, those numbers don't yet fully reflect the effects of the cold free agent market (non-Phillies and Royals players) of this off-season. So all told, the 2010 option is going to be a bit of an overpay if these numbers, which represent multiple contigencies at this point, hold. Only, it isn't that simple, since it would essentially be a one-year contract, and typically teams are willing to pay more for a one-year deal. I think.
- Do the Royals have an internal option other than Crisp for 2010? Well, that depends on what you think of David DeJesus, who seems like the most likely option. Purely internally, there's a low-watt option regarding someone like Mitch Maier or maybe Jose Durate (hey... trying to be positive). Assuming the Royals weren't going to want to go after a topflight CF free agent after 2009, there are also guys like, say, Chicago's Brian Anderson, who is probably better than Mitch and could be a stopgap.
But, what do you think will happen and should happen? (I considered a complicated five-answer scenario, but couldn't make it work.) Your poll question deals with will, and I hope to hear about your predictions as well as what should.
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I'm going to have to wait to see what happens with his 2009 performance
I kind of think it is a toss-up at the moment.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And going by WAR, if he manages, a merely average 2.0 WAR, he'll be worth more than $8M
That doesn’t mean the Royals should necessarily pick up his option, but I just wanted to throw that out there. WAR and dollar values based on it are much better than MORP.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 2:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes, at the bottom of each player's page
Also you can find it on the leader board pages. While fangraphs has CHONE and some other projections, they don’t project WAR. They just have WAR for prior seasons, along with what that was worth in $$$.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I probably should have added one more issue -- the psychology of the trade
I think the fact that the Royals traded for Crisp and gave up a good pitcher for him, makes “picking up the option” the leader in the clubhouse
by royalsreview on Mar 2, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
On one hand
Crisp is a decent player, and Moore has made noise about about “getting a legit centerfielder” (and DDJ says “F- you, too, Dayton) for a while, and seems to think that Crisps alleged "true leadoff skills,” which apparently include basestealing, baserunning, and um…. are as important as the good defense.
On the other hand, while Moore does like to trade good relievers for positions players, he also seems to like to later let those players walk for nothing…
So it’s a toss up. Tiebreaker — Crisp will be 30 or so when it’s time to pick up the option, and DMGM has shown he’s not averse to making the Royals more… mature.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 2:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Assuming Crisp ends up a type B FA
Would we still get compensation for not picking up his option?
by BrRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand transaction rules at all
seems like someone here would know. Gotta be easier than figuring out whether or not the Olivo thing.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe we would get compensation in that case
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i could be wrong
i think you get compensation if you decline the option year, but offer arbitration.
by 9il on Mar 2, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But Hardball Times has his fielding as an F!
I lean towards decline it, but it depends on his performance.
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by RoyalsRetro on Mar 2, 2009 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That was for 2008 only
and pretty much every measure I’ve seen has him at least poor in 2008, some say awful (both kinds of UZR).
They give him a “D” for projection, as RZR/OOZ doesn’t like his 2007 either, for some reason, although everyone else likes-to-loves it. IN any case, that’s the only recent year he’s really kicked ass in CF. I still think, looking at all the numbers and reading some scouts comments, that all told he’s probably above average. He’s almost definitely better than his 2008 numbers, but he reputation overrates him. He’s probably better than DDJ, but he’s also not in the same league as Beltran, Sizemore, Granderson (who had a bad year this year in the field, but was better than CoCo), Adam Jones, Endy Chavez, etc.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you
My comment was pure mockery at THT.
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by RoyalsRetro on Mar 2, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, I know
I was just defending their 2008 grade, which I don’t think is that far off everyone else’s. They’re just following their stats.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I will have a piece up at BtB on projecting/real UZR in a few days
Here is what I have determined the “real” UZR for the available CF’s
Name Projected CF UZR for the season (age adjusted)
Coco Crisp 4.09
David DeJesus 3.22
Mitch Maier -0.42
Willie Bloomquist -0.8
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 2, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are those all based on the same playing time?
Like a UZR/150?
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Predicted UZR:
(5* # of games last year * UZR last year)+
(4 * # of games 2 years ago * UZR 2 years ago)+
(3 * # of games 2 years ago * UZR 3 years ago)+
(2 * # of games 2 years ago * UZR 4 years ago))/
((5 * # of games last year) +
((4 * # of games 2 years ago) +
((3 * # of games 3 years ago) +
((2 * # of games 4 years ago))
After that UZR is obtained, the values are run through this equation:
Regressed UZR = (1-((125)/(number of games + 125))) * predicted UZR)
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 2, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What did you do with a guy like Maier?
You’re forced to use just his major league data, right?
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
and just made the assumption that he is average major league talent. It is the same math that people should use with Aviles and his hitting.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 2, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A better measure a player's yearly UZR is:
Regressed UZR = (1-((125)/(number of games + 125))) * predicted UZR)
or if you use chances instead of games, replace the 125 with 250.
Mithcel Litchman and I have been working on a decent method for determining UZR, mainly telling me how messed up I am.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 2, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds cool. I'm looking forward to seeing your article.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's very cool
I was going to start doing something like that myself… but youi’rs will be much better, anyway.
Are you thinkin of adding in regression to Fans Scouting report at some point? I realize right now it’s sort of a “defensive Marcels” that’s more about predicting UZR in particular than defense in general, but that would be the next step.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Truthfully, I have made some progess, but am creating more questions also
I found that that the data is not very linear and need a pre-28 line and a post-28 line
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 2, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh
Is t here really enough bUZR data to generate aging curves that sophisticated?
I’m asking sincerely, I don’t know.
In my conception, my very crude UZR “Marcels” was going to just be a weighted average with regression to the mean/FSR, then if a player is over 28, substract one from the result. Like I said, it’s crude, but what you’re doing is a step in the right direction if you have sufficient data.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is from every player that had 100 innings in the past 7 years - all the data I could download from Fangraphs
As you will see from the article, I hope to get done today or tomorrow, I have an idea where the 1 comes from, but there it is a little murky once you look deeper. There seems to be 3 fielding curves: OF, MI and CI
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 2, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's great data for this purpose
It gives you lots of data points for multiple players, multiple ages and every position. I think that’s sufficient to create good aging curves.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still can't even figure out why the Royals got him for THIS year, much less think about next year.
Crisp might well be the third best centerfield option in the Royals organization by 2010. He already is a downgrade from DeJesus, and might well be one from Maier, although that is awfully speculative at this point.
Maybe Crisp will have an awesome year in 2009 for some unknowable reason. If he keeps playing as he has the last three years he probably should be on the bench much of this year. He certainly needs to step up his game considerably to be worth $8M next year.
Just my opinion.
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by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I go back and forth
sometimes I think… “he’s really kinda good, and he’s a CF, so its worthwhile” and then other times I think “you know what, his OBP is like .320 and he has a weird defensive profile”
by royalsreview on Mar 2, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Over the last three years he has lacked skills.
He is below average in both OBP and Slugging. His defense seems to be good but not special. His running is maybe helpful in some situations, but nothing game changing about it. The only thing that stands out about him is his cool name and high salary.
I like his name. That gets him a roster spot at least. I’ll be tired of saying Coco Crisp by July so the name thing will not give him a ride in 2010.
I’m still working on learning to love the new guys. I think I might like Bloomy the most now. Because he saved those Llamas from the fire.
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by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, to be fair
he does seem to be an outstanding baserunner. If you look at CHONE’s numbers, or BP’s EQBRR (BP only has it for the past two seasons, though), over a full season he probably almost half a win by just by stealing, advancing well, etc. That’s significant. I don’t think that’s the main qualification for being a “leadoff man,” but it is worth considering.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As well as the fact that he's approximately a league average CFer
How many players do the Royals have who are league average at their position or better? It’s not a long list.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, stop depressing me
DDJ
Gordon
Aviles (barring a total collapse on both sides of the ball unforeseen by any projection system)
…
…
…
Crisp has the best chance outside of those guys.
If they’d let Butler play first regularly, I think he’s got a decent shot this year; he’d only have to outplay his offensive projections a bit. I know he looks terrible at first, but who knows?
/broken record
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is why I don't get it when people bemoan Coco Crisp's existence
I recognize the trade was iffy, largely due to the money. But the reality is that when you take into account offense, defense and position, Coco Crisp is the fourth best position player on the team.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well wasn't DDJ an average CF, everything else being equal?
in that way trading for him was like trading for an average 3b and moving gordon to 1st
by royalsreview on Mar 2, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No
If you move Gordon to first, he’s not average there. If you move DDJ to LF, he’s still above average there because even with the positional adjustment, his defense is so much better at that position, that it evens out. So, adding Crisp gives you an average CFer and an above average LFer.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
without looking up the numbers...
I’d say the analogy is slightly more comparable than that, especially given that Gordo will likely improve a tad
of course, compared to some of dayton’s other positional moves: Gload, Guillen, Olivo, it was a brilliant upgrade
by royalsreview on Mar 2, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is that when you go from 3B to 1B, usually you don’t get a massive defense bump, because fielding opportunities for 1B’s are more limited. But when a decent defensive CFer goes to a corner OF position, they usually get a great defensive bump, which makes up for the positional adjustment. The fielding difference usually doesn’t make up for the positional adjustment from 3B to 1B.
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by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maier probably is a significantly better defensive player in center already.
Maier might even hit as well as Crisp this year. Probably not, but the two will be in the same ballpark. (ha ha) Seems to me that Maier might be as good as Crisp overall already, and he makes one-twelfth what Crisp will be paid.
Since the Royals have so few league average players in positions it only makes sense for them to upgrade one of those positions rather than overpaying someone to play a position in which they already have better and cheaper options within the organization.
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by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I don't agree with any of that
Maier is ok defensively, but no better than that. FWIW, his advanced defensive metrics for 2009 in CF weren’t good, but it was a small sample size. Watching him play, his defense certainly didn’t blow me away. Multiple defensive metrics over the last three years show, on average that Crisp was a bit above average defensively. And the projections have Crisp more than a little better than Maier offensively in 2009.
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by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was my understanding that Maier was named the best outfield defender in the KC system recently.
Is that not true? I’ve only seen him play a few games so I am going on what I have heard about his minor league work in center.
Why don’t you share those defensive metrics you have on Maier. I’d be interested to see them. BP lists him as 15 runs above average in center last year.
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by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have an opinion on Maier's defense
but I do on FRAA — it sucks for contemporary basebaseball (everyone thinks this, I didn’t figure it out myself).
Is that the one? Or did they put out Simple Fielding Runs in the 2009 previe?
Fangraphs has the best freely-accessible defensive numbers (2002-) out there — using Ultimate Zone Rating w/ data from Baseball Info Solutions. You can find it on their player pages, like that of MITCH. In limited time in CF, UZR has him at -8.2/150 games, but it’s waaay too small a sample to be meaningful.
Minor League Splits now has TotalZone defensive numbers (the best non-PBP [I think] system out there), but those vary wildly. I can’t get his page there now, but I remember him being pretty good last season. Sean Smith (the inventor of TotalZone, CHONE, etc.) had a good article on THT about how to interpret the minor league numbers, including rough defensive “MLEs.”
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball America said he was the best defensive outfielder in the system a couple years ago
by ZeppelinDZ on Mar 2, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
did they compare him to OFs in general, or just the Royals opinions
I don’t have a horse in this race I was just directing JQ to some numbers… damn you minorleagusplits.com, for not loading quickly.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just the royals system
but it is a valid concern that its a relative measure, not an absolute one
by ZeppelinDZ on Mar 2, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, it was FRAA
Unless NYR has found some usable numbers for Maier’s defense I guess we have to go on scouting reports. And it seems that those conclude that Maier is an excellent defender.
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by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The numbers are all pretty weak
The numbers I could find aren’t particularly impressive. I think they support my opinion, but those numbers really are unreliable. And I think the scouting reports have him as a good, but not great defensive CFer.
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by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No,
The scouting reports have him as THE BEST outfield defender in the system recently. That is much better than good considering the other outfielders KC has in the minors.
Anyway, it looks to me like the weight of evidence is that Maier is probably a better defender in center than Crisp. Which means Crisp has to hit much better than Maier to justify his salary. And Crisp doesn’t seem likely to accomplish that.
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by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The scouting reports have him as THE BEST outfield defender in the system recently.
In a shitty Royals minor league system at the time. Does that make him a great defensive CFer? Certainly not.
That is much better than good considering the other outfielders KC has in the minors.
HAD at the time. And that time was 2006.
Anyway, it looks to me like the weight of evidence is that Maier is probably a better defender in center than Crisp.
Wow, where do you get this from? Crisp is better on the numbers (advanced defensive metrics) and scouts love Crisp’s defense. So where is this weight which puts Maier’s defense better than Crisp’s?
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by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK,
So, on the one hand we have Maier with glowing scouting reports, awards from Baseball America, and some good numbers from a rating system which probably isn’t the best in use.
On the other hand we have … ???? what? Why do you think Maier is not a very good defender? Is it a feeling? Where are those advanced defensive metrics? If I saw them I might form a different opinion.
Above you see where I got that “weight of evidence” argument from. I hope that clears it up for you.
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by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So, on the one hand we have Maier with glowing scouting reports
We do? Glowing? Where? The scouting reports I’ve read have been positive about his defense, but they didn’t glow.
awards from Baseball America
Best OF defense in the Royals system 2006? That’s an award of the “tallest midget” variety.
and some good numbers from a rating system which probably isn’t the best in use.
No, it’s one of the worst systems in use and it is widely recognized as unreliable and not particularly meaningful.
On the other hand we have … ???? what? Why do you think Maier is not a very good defender? Is it a feeling? Where are those advanced defensive metrics? If I saw them I might form a different opinion.
On the other hand we have the scouting reports I’ve read about him over the years which say that he’s a good OF defender. They don’t say great or spectacular to my recollection. And so far no defensive metrics of any value that I can find point to him being more than a pretty good defensive CFer. He’s likely very good or great on the corners and pretty good in CF.
Above you see where I got that "weight of evidence" argument from. I hope that clears it up for you.
You didn’t deal with Crisp’s evidence. For him, the average of 3 advanced defensive metrics (UZR, PMR and Dewan’s Plus/Minus) weighted on a sliding scale over the last three years shows Crisp to be an above average or pretty good defender in CF (d_f hunted down the stats and crunched the numbers back at the time of the trace). Also you have consistently glowing opinions from scouts about his CF defense.
I think the weight of the evidence shows Maier to be no better than Crisp in the field.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just a note
I like ZiPS — its certainly right up there with CHONE and PECOTA. And it does have Maier and Crisp hitting about the same (Crisp’s better projected OBP makes him at least equal to Mitch).
Should probably note, though, that CHONE has Crisp has about 8 runs better over 625 PAs, and PECOTA has Crisp being superior by about twice that many.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that not true?
I’m not sure. I’m sure there was a time when that may well have been true. He’s certainly not better than the speedy, athletic, no-hit CF types in the low minors now. I see him as a pretty good CF defender. Not great, probably not even very good from what I’ve seen of him. What I remember reading about him from scouts and prospect analysts was that his CF defense was good, but I don’t remember the praise being particularly effusive.
Why don’t you share those defensive metrics you have on Maier. I’d be interested to see them. BP lists him as 15 runs above average in center last year.
Obviously this is a small sample, so I don’t think any of these stats are particularly reliable. But UZR/150 games has him at -8.4 runs in 2009. That’s for CF. He did better on the corners in a handful of games. The BP stuff is FRAA, right? That is a widely panned metric. I’d be interested in seeing what PMR and Plus/Minus have to say about him.
Minor League Splits has his Total Zone numbers (click “defense” in the uppper right hand corner). They look like quite a mixed bag. More pluses than minuses, but nothing that blows you away. And that’s a questionable defensive metric.
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by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I go back and forth as well
Between “man his OBA sucks and his power is pretty limited” to “man he has a cool name, and a great attitude, and his diving plays are fun to watch!”
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by RoyalsRetro on Mar 2, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a procedural question
If a team as a club option on a player and they decline to exercise that option, making him a FA, can they still offer him arbitration, and thus potentially get a compensatory draft pick for him?
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
first hunch... yes
but then again…
by royalsreview on Mar 2, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If so, it would probably make sense to decline his option and offer him arbitration
He’d likely decline and go the FA route. And if he accepts, he’d likely get less than $8M from the arbitrator.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
RR is correct
Generally speaking, the option and the offer of arbitration operate independently, so the denial of the option does not preven the team from offering arbitration. In rare circumstances, however, players have been able to insert language into the individual player contract providing that the team agrees to not offer arbitration.
by Gopherballs on Mar 2, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish I'd said this earlier
I think CoCo would fit nicely on the Yankees. If the Royals could get even just A-Jax for him. Not that CoCo sucks, he clearly doesn’t. But younger is better. Even if they just get a guy who projects as average, that’s fine, if he’s young and cheap.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would demand Berroa as a throw-in
Waiting for April.
by DC Royal on Mar 2, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fine, I guess you don't want it to happen. I get it.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that kind of trade is doable
(if Moore were interested in trading him) Instead, Moore is making sure all the pieces are in place for our 2009 playoff run.
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by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
understandable
I think that might have been possible, but I don’t really see it now, barring improvements from the usual suspects. Won’t go over it all again now.
I might be a bit overly dogmatic, but almost every team should always try to get younger, and especially the Royals. The Rays show that — veterans stopgaps, cheap talent, and young guys (who play better defense and are more likely to rapidly improve). It’s not the only way, but it’s probably the easiest one,and the best long-term, I think.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You get younger unless you're in a year when you're trying to contend
If you think you are going to be contention, then you probably just want to be better. Unfortunately Moore really is trying to win now, when the Royals have little chance of actually contending. So he feels like he needs to have all of the pieces in place. In that circumstance, you can’t possibly trade your legit CFer. Ugh.
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by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody is pushing from our farm system
That is a Center field, or for that matter, a power corner OF prospect (then move DDJ back to CF)that should be ready in ’10, so I think it will get picked up.
After that, Robinson and others should be ready, so I doubt he’d be here past ‘10, and if the economy continues to be shitty, it may not get picked up, and we may try to piece it together w/ the Lubanski’s/Maiers of the farm system for a season…
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
TOMMY MURPHY NOW!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 2, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thankfully there are options outside of the Royals minor league system
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
But seeing as GMDM’s ultimate goal is to ‘build from within’ I’d think he is more inclined to hang on to Coco for ’10 until he can move forward w/ Robinson or whoever, as opposed to dumping Coco and potentially needing to sign someone of consequence multi-year, creating a block for…….blah blha blah
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Part of building from within includes trading some of your strengths to fill some weaknesses
For instance, not all of those pitching prospects are going to pitch for the Royals. Some of them will eventually be traded for position players. Building from within does not prevent Moore from trading (see Buckner for Callaspo, Howell for Gathright, Ramirez for Crisp, and Nunez for Jacobs)
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really thought
There’d be a lot more trading by DM this off-season. I guess we had two significant deals – Crisp and Jacobs. And it was a down market for trading. But I thought he’d be making a lot of deals to fill these type of weaknesses. Maybe mid-season.
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by RoyalsRetro on Mar 2, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe cheap FA's depressed the trade market
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Certainly
Trading was certainly down this off-season.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 2, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still believe
that they shopped Teahen fairly hard. But, we valued him too high and other teams valued him fairly or too low. I think other teams view him much more skeptically than the Royals do, and rightfully so.
Fourth to First
by kabrink on Mar 2, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mitch Maier is already ready.
He is a great fielder and seems to be able to hit to a degree.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
to a degree, but is he 250 AB ready, or 600 AB ready?
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Mitch quite a bit
But his future is as a fourth outfielder, not a starter.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 2, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If this is true then the Royals traded a good relief pitcher,
and are going to pay maybe $14M for a centerfielder who probably is not as good as an inhouse option who tops out as a 4th outfielder and will earn league minimum for two more years.
Moore trading value to aquire Crisp is a real head scratcher for me. If I had been Moore I am not sure I would have taken Crisp off Boston’s hands as a straight salary dump.
Maybe I’m wrong. But no one has been able to show me why yet.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you think Crisp = Maier?
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Mar 2, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
ZiPS set Maier as better than Crisp.
I just don’t know. I haven’t seen enough of Maier to know.
I am pretty sure Crisp is not good. And I am absolutely sure that Crisp is very expensive.
I’d much rather Crisp was not a Royal and Teahen was getting his at-bats. That would have saved a lot of money and given the team more offense.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
DDJ-Crisp-Teahen
would probably be the first average, and maybe even above average, OF the Royals have had since the Damon years.
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love that you left out Guillen
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by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't want to beat my usual dead horse
but, yeah, if he was the odd man out, this move would be even better.
(Beating head into desk).
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the ideal would have Guillen
either platooning with Teahen, or, even better, with jacobs
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
Guillen at DH makes the most sense. He is a sunk cost. And I suspect he will hit well enough to help the team. But I know he will demand to play in the outfield, and Hillman will let him.
Well maybe he will have a great year with the bat. That would be nice.
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by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Costa
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Mar 2, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ZiPS set Maier as better than Crisp.
Slightly better OPS, but as we know, OBP is more valuable than SLG, and ZiPS has Crisp with an OBP which is more than little better than Maier. ZiPS basically has the two roughly equal. Other projection systems, not so much.
PECOTA
Crisp .264/.328/.381
Maier .238/.287/.367
CHONE
Crisp .271/.334/.398
Maier .286/.313/.393
I know Maier is a grinder who is fun to root for, but he just isn’t very good. He’s a competent 4th OFer.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We just don't know yet.
I don’t hate having Crisp on the team. He is fine. I don’t understand why Moore went out and got him, but he isn’t going to hurt the team. He is going to suck up a lot of money, but I never worry too much about that factor. I hate more that he is going to put Teahen on the bench and push DDJ to RF. Crisp starting just starts a cascade of bad things which hurt the team.
We just don’t know how good Maier is yet. Hopefully we’ll learn this year. I would have much rather had Maier as the 4th outfielder.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
by James Quinn on Mar 2, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hate more that he is going to put Teahen on the bench and push DDJ to RF. Crisp starting just starts a cascade of bad things which hurt the team.
This is a fundamental area where we disagree. Moving DDJ to LF (I think it will be LF not RF, but that’s largely irrelevant to this discussion) doesn’t hurt his value to the team. Clearly moving to a corner position hurts a player’s value to the team, but DDJ’s defense is such a huge positive at a corner OF position, that the difference is largely negated. In short, DDJ is as much of an asset in LF as he was in CF (I believe d_f crunched some numbers which showed this). And I think the numbers show that Teahen (who can only play a corner OF position) is less valuable to the Royals in the OF than Crisp. When you take offense, defense and position into account, A DDJ-Crisp-Guillen OF is better overall than a Teahen-DDJ-Guillen offense. So I just don’t see the cascade of bad things which hurt the team.
We just don’t know how good Maier is yet. Hopefully we’ll learn this year. I would have much rather had Maier as the 4th outfielder.
We certainly don’t know, but I haven’t been impressed by or excited about Maier for a long time. He hasn’t been a highly thought of prospect for a while now. And the biggest reason he was highly ranked in the Royals system years ago is because the system was largely bereft of talent. And his .748 and .836 OPS in the PCL at age 25 and 26 isn’t particularly impressive. I just don’t see any reason to think that he’ll ever be better than a 4th OFer.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
RYAN LANGERHANS NOW!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 2, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
please, i just healed
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To a degree?
.286/.316/.319?
I wouldn’t say his CF defense is great. And he really can’t hit. Not just because of his stats, but because of how little he did in the ultra-hitter friendly PCL. He’s an all-defense 4th OFer.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crisp is the Royals' Jason Bartlett
or maybe not.
by Gopherballs on Mar 2, 2009 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
does that make HoRam the Royals Matt Garza?
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by devil_fingers on Mar 2, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Might as well re-acquire Joey Gathright
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
please god do it now
i wanna see him jump fountains. soonest.
The first thing I know about someone in a KC hat is that they're loyal.
by grantfunk on Mar 2, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mitch will probably get an ample opportunity
to prove if he is worth of taking Coco’s job next year. Coco averages 130 games the last 5 seasons and DDJ averages 130 over the last 4 so there will be opportunity to play for him.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Mar 2, 2009 7:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Teahen
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Mar 2, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was wondering about that
Let’s say that Teahen isn’t the regular, everyday second baseman. And let’s further suppose that DDJ or Crisp goes down with an injury. Teahen would move to a corner OF spot, with DDJ or Crisp in CF. Now, if DDJ or Crisp goes on the DL, then Maier would likely get called up, but he probably wouldn’t play much. The three starters would be set, with Maier only playing when someone needs a day off. The only way I see Maier getting significant PT is if both DDJ and Crisp are injured at the same time.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Mar 2, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yep
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Mar 2, 2009 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True but that
is before you also get to the JoGui injury which is semi likely as well
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Mar 2, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
whether Crisp's option is picked up...
depends on what he does this year. If he plays decent CF defense and puts up a .280/.330/.410 line in 500 AB’s (which is basically his career line), I think he’ll be back. I’d like to see him put up slightly better numbers than that.
One thing to add on—I know we’ve knocked Crisp’s OBP as not being what it should for a leadoff hitter (which, if DDJ is moved to the third spot, is a definite possibility). But the difference between Crisp’s batting average and his OBP for the last two years has been in the 60-65 point range, which (1) is higher than the differential was earlier in his career, suggesting he has developed some decent plate discipline, and (2) isn’t that far off from the difference between DDJ’s average and OBP (DDJ’s 2007 line aside, which for many reasons looks like a statistical outlier). If Crisp can keep his batting average at .285, a .350 OBP from him is very much possible. A .350 OBP from your leadoff hitter isn’t great, but it isn’t horrible, either, especially since Crisp is a good baserunner.
by DarthYoshi on Mar 2, 2009 10:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Defense Ratings Question
Do the defense ratings take into effect the field he is playing on? For example, playing CF in Fenway is just weird. With the openness of the K, is it possible that he will look fantastic in CF?
I have an irrelevant question about Teahen and CF. How did Teahen do in CF in the short amount of time he played there and how would his numbers look in comparison to other CF’s. Or is there no way he could be better than DeJesus, which makes this pointless?
by eakers on Mar 7, 2009 10:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Some of t hem do, some don't
it does vary. the arm components usually do…
Teahen’s didn’t play enough CF for there to be any reliable stats to project him going forward. You’d have to get a better scouting opinion than mine…
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by devil_fingers on Mar 7, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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