BA predictions

In the latest issue of BA Callis has his predictions for 2012. Royals win first division title since 85. Moose (1st base) and Hosmer (rf) will be games most feared power combo. Monty, Melville and Duffy will be in rotation fronted by Zac. Thoughts?

almost 3 years ago gordonrules 11 comments 0 recs |

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Callis really does love lots of Royals prospects

He thinks most of the the pitching prospects in the Royals top 10 prospect list are very high ceiling guys. He thinks Hosmer will be an absolute monster. He likes Moustakas a lot too. Depending on what exactly he expects from Montgomery, Melville and Duffy in 2012, this basically sounds like the “if everything goes right” version. It’s possible. But it basically involves most of the Royals top 10 hitting their upside potential, and doing so by 2012.

My thought is that even if some/many/all of these guys eventually develop into good or great players, I doubt many of them will have done so by 2012. I think the following is a reasonable speculation as to when these prospects will make their MLB debut (first season with regular playing time in parentheses):

Moustakas 2012 (2013)
Hosmer 2013 (2014)
Montgomery 2013 (2014)
Melville 2013 (2014)
Duffy 2012 (2013)

So I think many of these guys won’t even be in the majors by 2012. And I don’t know if it is likely that any of them will be full season regulars by 2012. I really think the first year that one should expect this group of prospects to really make an impact on the major league team is 2013, or perhaps 2014.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Mar 22, 2009 1:50 AM EDT reply actions

Hosmer will be here much sooner

i am confident of that.

i think people underrate how good his bat really is.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Mar 22, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions

And every indication

is that the Royals want to promote him aggressively to catch him up with Moose if they can. Obviously, performance dictates, but they think he can do that and have them both arrive at the same time. Man that gives me goosebumps just thinking about it.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Mar 22, 2009 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions

We don't really know yet how good his bat really is

I hope he moves faster than a level a year. Moustakas too. The good news is that this FO doesn’t appear to be interested in rushing any prospects. They let them develop and move up when their performance warrants it.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Mar 22, 2009 4:01 AM EDT up reply actions

agree with NYR here

It makes me nervous when I hear someone say something like “aggressive promotion”. We should have learned not to do this. I want them to move as fast as possible of course, but not at the expense of ruining them. Haven’t done well at this

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on Mar 22, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, yes

I agree. I just remember Piccollo on Greg Schaum’s show earlier this off season saying that they thought Hosmer could catch Moose, and that they would like him to. He did add the caveat that his performance would dictate whether they can do that though. But it was pretty clear that if he jumps fast out of the gate he will be put on a track that has him getting to KC at the same time or very soon after Moose does.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Mar 22, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I think they'll let his performance dictate his promotions

They think he’ll be very, very good, which might allow him to catch up to Moustakas. But I don’t think they will move Hosmer faster than they otherwise would have just to get the two of them to the same level at the same time.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Mar 22, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions