Spring Training stats don't mean anything...unless you're fighting for a roster spot
So maybe I shouldn't be angry about this, maybe it's just the Bud Light and expensive hookers (maybe they're just random Korean women)* talking...but does Doug Waechter realize he is fighting for a roster spot? I come home expecting to find another courageous victory in the Battle for Grass Creek only to discover some kind of sick rudimentary compass in my lawn.
*This might sound racist but they are actually Korean women. I live with Asian foreign exchange students, and Bob Kelso sends my roommates tuition payments.
In fact, this may not be a question posed only to Waechter, but others in the hunt for roster positions. Now admittedly, I am not a sabermetrics guru, I am learning on the job from the rest of you. However, as rudimentary as it is, one's ERA cannot be 31.50.
Two points:
1)We are willing to ignore Spring training stats if you are one of the following:
SP: Gil Meche, Zach Greinke
RP: Joakim Soria, Kyle Farnsworth (Due to contract, not his actual worth), Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay
Also we note, the Royals have sent up 31 pitchers and only six have locked in roster spots (or staff heirarchy),. So that leaves 25 men, who could theoretically improve their standing by pitching well.
2)However, let's be honest, these men are pretty locked on our staff, barring injury or apocolyptic regression in the next two weeks.
Meche, Greinke, Davies, Hochevar
Soria, Cruz, Farnsworth, Mahay, Tejada, (possibly Bale)
To be fair, not all have "Waechtered" their spring games. Davies and Hochevar have pitched well enough to lock up rotation spots as of now. Ducky has proved he can be the best eight or ninth starter in baseball, and I say that with all affection. Ramon Colon has shown his skills, which during his MLB career have proven to be ineffective, if not useless.
If he ever pitches, this should always be displayed on the Jumbotron.
(Thanks to devil_fingers' SP article for reminding me of this)
So here's how the last rotation spot battle is stacking up. Ho-ram wants desperately to be in the bullpen, or just sucks. Bannister is playing mind games with everyone but the hitters. Sir Ponson looked his usual self today, and sadly he may be our best no. 5 option. We have spoken on depth, and acknowledged that our fifth starter need not be an all-star. Yet I still cringe at the thought of any of these men pitching every fifth day, why?
Now, the bullpen is another story. Waechter is the impetus for my post, because he has been horrendous. Sure, it is just two innings, but seven runs, come on. Put TPJ on the mound and the other team would have scored six or seven less. Jo-el is still my mortal enemy and strikes fear into my heart every time he gets the call. Bale is out. The also-rans (Colon, Wright, Phillips) are faring well. There will be twelve pitchers on this roster for better or worse, and three will come from the following.
Ramirez, Bannister, Ponson, Waechter, Bale, Peralta
Outsiders: Wright, Colon, Heath Phillips (? I really had no idea who he was, and seemingly his stats offered no help, any personal thoughts would be helpful.)
I would prefer HoRam was a reliever, since he would be far more effective in such a role. Sometimes, Bannister might as well be humping a doorknob, because he seems to be lost on what the objective of pitching is: to get the batter out. If that puts Mr. Congeniality, Sidney Ponson, in the fifth spot I might cry myself to sleep as he eats all of my barbecue and destroys the chemistry carefully constructed by clubhouse leader, Jose Guillen. If HoRam is a reliever, two of those spots are locked down. I'll say Waechter gets that last spot, by default until Bale returns, but doesn't he have to show some improvement upon what he accomplished today?
I'm guessing this is just a long overdrawn way of asking: If Spring Training means nothing , why do we care? I know we've been languishing in a NBA/NHL world since the Super Bowl, and this is our pastime. Yet if these men aren't playing for roster spots, why doesn't everyone "Waechter" their Spring Training, including us (We have been trouncing our opponents on the open threads, kudos)? We've said frequently that these stats don't matter, but when do underachievers without guaranteed contracts improve or head over to minor league camp?
I'm sorry for my anger (Blame the latest battle lost), but I have dreadful nightmares about the Royals when April approaches and I need assurance it won't be the same as every April. Except for that magical one where I dropped some Orange Sunshine and the Royals were leading their division throughout the month. When I finally got out of rehab, they were in third and I'm pretty sure I hallucinated the whole incident. Or maybe that happened because Mike and I had a super prayer together before the season (I was probably high when that happened also, don't tell Sweeney).
We have established that we have an effective pitching staff, but I would be happier if our fifth starter and last bullpen options performed to a level of a replacement-level pitcher (or even close) before we tossed them into the fire. Also, if Peralta makes the roster, and gives up a HR in his first appearance, I may hurt someone (a St. Louis resident, so no one useful). So comrades, please sooth my nerves, or chastise me for wining about a problem that we discounted days ago.
As for the offense, let's hope Spring Training stats do mean something.
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I think
Waechter will be released and Colon will get his job. Waechter’s contract was “only” for 600K so it won’t be that hard to swallow.
Yes, it was a free agent major league contract
So it is all guaranteed.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 28, 2009 5:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Colon has pitched well
I hope that can continue, but he’s lacking a proven track record and isn’t even someone we have an irrational attachment or resentment towards (See Mark Teahen).
"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue."
If you're looking to learn a life lesson from Spring Training
look no further than Horacio Ramirez:
to paraphrase: “I’ve sucked. But I haven’t been using my cutter, which is my best pitch. I’ve been working on polishing my other pitches*”
* There’s not enough Brasso in the world to clean them up to an MLB average level, Hoey, just use the cutter
If he was going full-bore, there wouldn’t be an excuse for his Berroa-ness. But since he’s “holding back”, he (perhaps unintentionally) built in an excuse which may allow him to keep his position.
I don't really see why two innings in Arizona should trump 63 innings against real action
Waechter will make the club and I figure he’ll be pretty adequate this season.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I read in the star the other day that the coaching staff took the cutter away from Horacio all spring training and that in the last game he couldn’t throw his curveball because of a fingernail problem (I don’t know if I buy that bit). Anyway I’m willing to wait and see on him, I know it’s fashionable to hate him, but I just can’t muster it.
I agree
I can’t “hate” a guy for sucking. Barring a history-making miracle, I never want to see Tony Pena Jr. play another meaningful game in the field in KC (the mound is a different story), but I don’t hate him.
At this point, I’m resigned to Ho-Ram starting the season in the rotation. My concern is whether Hochevar or Bannister gets sent down… Although Bannister is probably a rich man’s Josh Towers, if it preserves Hochevar’s service time, I can live with that.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 27, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
WTF?
So, you’re thing:
Meche
Greinke
Davies
HoRam
Bannister
??? We’re in real trouble.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
I don' t know
it’s just speculation. My personal preference to start the season based on talent alone would be
Meche
Greinke
Davies
Hochevar (maybe move him up)
Bannister
I’m just saying the only excuse I could accept for HoRam (or Ponson, or finally doing the right thing and making Ducky their #1) over Hochevar would be manipulating Hochevar’s service time clock (which is what I suspect the Rays are smartly doing again with David Price, at least in part. Cf. Baltimore, Wieters. Cf. the opposite of that; Gordon, Alex, 2007).
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 28, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Banny
has a service clock too. I just don’t know that we care since it seems unlikely he’ll be in MLB that long. But, I guess I’m willing to risk taking Ponson over Banny into the season. Even Ducky.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
Banny will be out of baseball in a couple years?
Boy when you give up on a player, you really give up on a player. I have a feeling that if Butler has another poor season, you’ll be giving up on him too. Greinke had better not take a step backwards either.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 28, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally understand the ST doesn't matter argument
but it has to matter some – especially late. Have you seen anything hopeful in Banny’s performance this spring?
The General Theory of Royaltivity
It has to matter some?
Do you mean that it matters to the FO who is deciding who will make the team and in what role? If so, I doubt it. I think they look at stuff control and other skills more than the small sample of A-game stats. But if you meant that ST stats are actually somewhat telling, especially late in spring training, then you’re wrong. Many studies have been done and no correlation has been found (except for that one small correlation regarding big increases in SLG percentage in ST). Early in ST, late in ST, young players, prospects and vets: ST stats do not correlate to regular season stats, so they have no particular meaning or predictive value.
But my bottom line is this: your above comment about ST stats makes it look like part of the reason you think Banny will be out of baseball in a couple years is because of his spring training stats. You can’t be serious, can you? Spring training stats really are meaningless. That means they have no reliable meaning.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 28, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm not sure we can manipulate Hoch's service time...
didn’t he sign a ML contract? Cot’s says 4 year/$5.3M (2006-09). How does a ML contract work for draft pick? I have no idea… Does this mean he’s arb eligible (or a FA???) in 2010? I don’t have any idea; someone please fill me in.
Don't Stop Believing!
Major league contract just means that he's on the 40-man roster from day one
This gets the player to the majors sooner because every year they send him to the minors they have to burn an option. It does not affect the service time calculations for either arbitration or free agency.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 28, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Or maybe that happened because Mike and I had a super prayer together before the season (I was probably high when that happened also, don’t tell Sweeney).
Love it!
FKA "MileHighKCfan"
by JSouth on Mar 27, 2009 10:03 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

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